Yes, let’s hope that collective action is able to mitigate against the sort of devastation you describe.
I Hope the Corona Virus Doesn’t Mess With Next Season.
- Thread starter The-Hack
- Start date
Just curious. How's your experience been so far? Been anywhere else in southeast Asia?
By the way: socialism/communism have killed 100s of millions throughout history. That's not politics, it's facts. Your average college graduate today couldn't tell you what josef stalin did or who he really was. And that is a vile travesty.
I am 100% sure you are "that guy" posting insane ultra right wing memes ALL day on Facebook. Making this political makes you look so naive. Bless your little heart.
Interesting twist to the entire thread.
If responses to this threat are mere left-wing attempts to overblow a non-issue, why was Trump angered by the handling of our tourists in Japan, why is he asking for billions to battle it, and throwing Pence at it?
Is he a dupe for the lie, or a participant?
Some have said this is not worse than the flu, and others have called it a bad flu, but with 3,000 deaths out of the known infected, the percentage of mortality is a multiple of our typical flu season.
As to the long-term potential political fallout from a pandemic, the Chi-coms face an existential threat: another crack in the wall of their lies and slow initial (December, 2019) response.
If responses to this threat are mere left-wing attempts to overblow a non-issue, why was Trump angered by the handling of our tourists in Japan, why is he asking for billions to battle it, and throwing Pence at it?
Is he a dupe for the lie, or a participant?
Some have said this is not worse than the flu, and others have called it a bad flu, but with 3,000 deaths out of the known infected, the percentage of mortality is a multiple of our typical flu season.
As to the long-term potential political fallout from a pandemic, the Chi-coms face an existential threat: another crack in the wall of their lies and slow initial (December, 2019) response.
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God, I hope you source is correct that the percentages of deaths are not as bad as other flu like viruses, as most of them are 1/1000.
Excellent question regarding Trump. It would be easy to be either in his position and with so few allies to trust, if he really is an outsider.
The truth is that we don't know if the casualties in China are from the virus and the population at large, or from the possible "quarantine" of dissidents who protested there. It's a convenient way to round people up without much suspicion and easy to hide with their control of the media and info.
The possible shut downs and quarantines here could work similarly, as the media is well under control, with google and social media also able to isolate and control info. Interesting that the cdc is saying men should shave their beards to prevent respirators from being ineffective, as if that is the greatest of worries immediately. What might a paranoid person think everyone shaving their beards would be good for? Facial recognition? Tracking? I don't know.
No one could stop Trump's policies from making the economy look better, but this might well do the trick.
The truth is that we don't know if the casualties in China are from the virus and the population at large, or from the possible "quarantine" of dissidents who protested there. It's a convenient way to round people up without much suspicion and easy to hide with their control of the media and info.
The possible shut downs and quarantines here could work similarly, as the media is well under control, with google and social media also able to isolate and control info. Interesting that the cdc is saying men should shave their beards to prevent respirators from being ineffective, as if that is the greatest of worries immediately. What might a paranoid person think everyone shaving their beards would be good for? Facial recognition? Tracking? I don't know.
No one could stop Trump's policies from making the economy look better, but this might well do the trick.
Hitler and Stalin were right at the top of the worst plagues to hit the human race, and most of their victims were usually very healthy people------until they were worked and starved close to death.
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The doctor who railed against the government resistance died a few days back.
He was like 51.
Hmmmmm.
As far as you know, sure.
I don't understand how people will believe any story coming out of China, and believe anything the media here says, even after all of the times we've been shown they CONTROL everything and they lie, respectively.
Yet, ALWAYS the story is immediately believed every time, even among the educated and professionals who see these lies in their daily lives.
It doesn't take a lot of time to get actual facts from sources that are not political spin. From what I've read the virus usually has mild symptoms and is rather normal flu sickness for about 80% of cases. That is one factor that makes it such a threat because people pass it on before they know they are sick much more readily. It is so easy for the contagion to spread, that is the threat. That is the good news/bad news aspect but the real numbers that make it an even bigger threat are these: the common flu has a mortality rate of .01% whereas this virus has a mortality rate of .04%, that is much worse for a virus that exponentially easier to spread. You can talk about this virus like most healthcare officials do without looking through a political prism to color your bias, but as we see most hacks don't. They actually choose which numbers coming out of China they deem reliable based entirely on their political posturing.
BTW that .04% fatality rate applied to the USA population would result in over 13 million deaths. JFYI
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One thing about it...no matter your politics, no matter your religion, no matter where you get your news...this stuff could kill you just as dead.
The bigger problem is do we trust China's information? I could easily see it going either way... worse than being reported because they engineered the virus in a lab OR not as bad as being reported because they're nefariously cleaning house under the ruse of an epidemic.
Practically everyone is exposed to the flu.....very small percentage thus far, exposed to Coronavirus.
So why don't people get the flu shot & save some of the 12-70K/yr USA deaths from it? Way more senseless than worrying about something that may never happen here. I.e., emotion ruling common sense.
A 0.04% mortality rate would result in 132,000 US dead.
A 4% mortality rate would result in 13,200,000 US deaths.
The latest numbers I’ve seen put it at 2.3% mortality rate (7,590,000 US dead).
100x worse than the flu.
Also, they were hoping that there was an “iceberg” of mild cases in China that were not counted, but they found out that there wasn’t. (China is taking temperatures of everyone door-to-door periodically).
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What I wonder about is how the mortality breaks down? For example.....
1. We know that the mortality rate early on was worse because China didn't know what they were dealing with......or they were trying to cover it up.....or didn't know how to treat it. But what is the mortality rate more recently? It's very possible that the 2-3% mortality rate is inflated because of the early numbers.
2. We know that some countries are better equipped to treat than others. For example, the average location in the US is likely to be better equipped than the average location in the Congo. So, how would China's ability to treat compare with another country (like the US) that has been exposed? Could the mortality rate be inflated because of this?
3. What about a break down in demographics? We know that the influenza tends to be worse for the young and old.....but is COVID-19 the same, similar, or different?
The death rate of 2% in China only.(Assuming they’re reporting accurately, which is a big assumption)
S. Korea has over 150 cases and 1 death.
Italy has a lot but has anyone died yet? Not sure.
Over 600 cruise ship people in Japan and 2 deaths. Both over 80 with health issues.
It’s bad and going to get worse until a treatment/vaccine is produced. But the “panic” it’s producing is more concerning because it’s eroding the markets and economy, imo.
I have a disease that destroys my immune system, so yeah, it worries me.
Also, the politicizing of this is asinine but that’s what we do in America these days.
S. Korea has over 150 cases and 1 death.
Italy has a lot but has anyone died yet? Not sure.
Over 600 cruise ship people in Japan and 2 deaths. Both over 80 with health issues.
It’s bad and going to get worse until a treatment/vaccine is produced. But the “panic” it’s producing is more concerning because it’s eroding the markets and economy, imo.
I have a disease that destroys my immune system, so yeah, it worries me.
Also, the politicizing of this is asinine but that’s what we do in America these days.
I hope so as well. Just sharing what some of the "insiders" have reported. Hopefully, cures and vaccines will come about very soon. I know this - each year the flu vaccines have 4 to 5 suspected flus for the season in them - sometimes they totally miss - when the vaccine is approved - I'm sure it will be in the mix - unfortunately it probably will not be available until the 2021 season. People who brag about not taking the flu shot are showing their ignorance. Taking the flu shot doesn't stop you from getting the flu - but if you get it - it may very well keep it from killing you! Please make sure anyone you care about understands how the flu vaccines really work!
Go Big Blue!
Thanks for breaking down some of the mortality rates. And sorry to hear about your auto-immune disease.
On a side note, the market has been getting overpriced lately.......it needs a correction.
I might get flack for this but I don't really give a damn because of how disappointed I am in some folks. People are DYING. God forbid a trip gets cancelled or I go without sports for a few months or holy hell, maybe it's a political game!!!!
Here are the numbers.
The current R0 of COVID-19 (last I checked about a week ago) is around 3.8 at about 90% certainty. R0 is a measure of the number of people infected per infected person. So, on average, 3.8 people would be infected per carrier. An R0 greater than 1 is enough to create a pandemic. Swine flu in 2009 had an R0 ≈ 1.5. Seasonal flu ≈ 2.5. Low-end estimates put the R0 of COVID-19 at 1.4, but it's exploded very quickly in certain areas and that # doesn't seem to align with its ability to escape containment. Likely because many infected don't show symptoms.
A Harvard scientist recently predicted between 40-70% of Americans will be infected. At a current case-fatality rate of (conservatively) 2%, this means that we can estimate (again, using the smallest numbers) 2.6 million lives of the 327 million in the US lost. Most of these losses from the elderly and immunocompromised (autoimmune, chemo, HIV/AIDS, co-infected, weak lungs, etc). Even if you disregard academics and say only 10% will be infected, that's over half a million people gone.
It's hopeful we have a vaccine by spring, but the methods we're trying to employ aren't proven. Promising, but unproven. COVID-19 may not be all it's been propped up as. A lot of information from China may be junk. We'll learn a lot from Italy. But, every situation requires a strong response. We aren't above nature even though we like to think it. Plagues can still bite us in the *** if we allow them. Yes, absolutely cancel the Olympics, school, sporting events, conferences, and the like. The fewer people exposed to the virus, the fewer we put in danger.
This post is by no means meant to incite fear. These are facts, and by God, I'm trying to put the situation into perspective for some folks. Props to you all that are taking this seriously and who are keeping up with the situation.
Be well, my big blue family.
Here are the numbers.
The current R0 of COVID-19 (last I checked about a week ago) is around 3.8 at about 90% certainty. R0 is a measure of the number of people infected per infected person. So, on average, 3.8 people would be infected per carrier. An R0 greater than 1 is enough to create a pandemic. Swine flu in 2009 had an R0 ≈ 1.5. Seasonal flu ≈ 2.5. Low-end estimates put the R0 of COVID-19 at 1.4, but it's exploded very quickly in certain areas and that # doesn't seem to align with its ability to escape containment. Likely because many infected don't show symptoms.
A Harvard scientist recently predicted between 40-70% of Americans will be infected. At a current case-fatality rate of (conservatively) 2%, this means that we can estimate (again, using the smallest numbers) 2.6 million lives of the 327 million in the US lost. Most of these losses from the elderly and immunocompromised (autoimmune, chemo, HIV/AIDS, co-infected, weak lungs, etc). Even if you disregard academics and say only 10% will be infected, that's over half a million people gone.
It's hopeful we have a vaccine by spring, but the methods we're trying to employ aren't proven. Promising, but unproven. COVID-19 may not be all it's been propped up as. A lot of information from China may be junk. We'll learn a lot from Italy. But, every situation requires a strong response. We aren't above nature even though we like to think it. Plagues can still bite us in the *** if we allow them. Yes, absolutely cancel the Olympics, school, sporting events, conferences, and the like. The fewer people exposed to the virus, the fewer we put in danger.
This post is by no means meant to incite fear. These are facts, and by God, I'm trying to put the situation into perspective for some folks. Props to you all that are taking this seriously and who are keeping up with the situation.
Be well, my big blue family.
The worst demographic part for China is all of the lung damage in men from smoking and the pollution for everyone in general, IMO.
Yep. If this is still an issue 6 months from now, sports will be way down the list of things to worry about.
I’m going crazy. Where did I screw up this math?
I’m just redoing the other guys’ math of “what if everyone in the US got it. I don’t think everyone is going to get it.
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Apparently it can leave them with 8x the receptor sites in their lungs for the virus to latch on or whatever.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...an-others-2020-02-26?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
JAMA just put out an article on COVID-19.
Looks like the mortality rate in China is around 3%........it's closer to 0.7% in the rest of the world.
JAMA just put out an article on COVID-19.
Looks like the mortality rate in China is around 3%........it's closer to 0.7% in the rest of the world.
I've not heard any estimates that the infection rates are anywhere near what you have predicted.
I would expect UK to send out emails any day now offering a 100% refund to those of us who have ordered season tickets.