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IC8 (ICE) Week 5

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Doctor_D

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Reed-Custer 20 @ Manteno 48
Too many playmakers for R-C to handle.

Peotone 35 @ Herscher 6
Herscher woes continue

Coal City 42 @ Streator 7
No issue here for Coaler

Wilmington 28 @ Lisle 27
Lisle always gives Wilmington trouble at Benedictine
 
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PanthersWildcats86

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Wilmington @ Lisle... Ahhh, Benedictine...the Wildcats personal house of horrors. even the championship team had a bad night there. The Lions run double wing, so there is familiarity with the base offense. They also run some spread, which is known to give the Cats trouble. But having seen both teams, if the Cats just stick with their methodical precision it shouldn't be very close. Cats should steal the Lions bacon...

Reed Custer @ Manteno... Break out the lederhosen, its Oktoberfest in Manteno this weekend - plenty of distractions for the Panthers who are in dire straits. RC's loss to Fieldcrest looks better now that Fieldcrest knocked off GCMS, snapping GCMS 31 game winning streak. But RC is still RC. I figure Manteno returns to slamming Wurster to keep the Comets D honest, and then just lights up the skies...This might get ugly. Panthers aerial show outshines the Comets...

Coal City @ Streator... Coalers were a bit flat against the Bulldogs last year. They need to keep focus in this two game stretch, Manteno week 6, where the Coalers are going to be heavy favorites. Who am I kidding...Coalers mine the Bulldogs endzone early & often for the win...

Peotone @ Herscher… Tigers going nowhere fast - although Momence managed to pick up a win, that win over the Redskins is starting to look like it might be the only win the Tigers get. Devils swipe the Tigers dinner...and keep sticking the trident into the endzone.
 
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Coalertown44

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Reed Custer (1-3) @ Manteno (1-3): RC couldnt hang with Streator and have yet to give any reasons they are ready for the next step. Manteno lost a high scoring game with Wilmington. Maneno runs up and down the field on the Comets Manteno 54 RC 13

Peotone (3-1) @ Herscher (1-3): Herscher got rolled by Lisle and Peotone lost a defensive battle with Coal City. Herscher will find a hard time stopping Peotones run game and an even harder time moving the ball. Peotone dominates start to finish Peotone 34 Herscher 0

Coal City (4-0) @ Streator (2-2): Bulldogs get a much needed win against RC to get to .500. Coalers shut out a previously undefeated Peotone team. Streator likes to spread it out and throw, Coalers love to play physical and are very fast defensively.I think Streators offense plays in to the strengths of the Coaler defense. Other side of the ball. I just cant see Streator stopping Jezik and Cooper. Coal City 41 Streator 6

Wilmington (4-0) @ Lisle (3-1): Wilmo just beat a decent Manteno team and Lisle beat Herscher. Lisle suffered an upset to Manteno the previous week that most of us saw coming. This isn't as good of a Lisle team as we have seen the last few years. Rodowald has been the Wildcat work horse this season. I know Wilmo has had its issues playing at Lisle and I don't think they have played a playoff team yet. I just don't think Lisle has the team to hang with Wilmington this year. Wilmington 32 Lisle 20
 
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Wilmatucky

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Easy week IMO

Teno
Tone
CC
Wilmo (Biggest Potential for upset, or should I say toughest one to pick)

Looking for my first week with no losses. 18-6 currently.........Should be 22-6 after this week as I feel these are fairly one-sided match-ups
 
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Wilmatucky

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Also could start thinking about who makes the playoffs and who won't......Saw someone mention on another post about the IC8 that we could see only 3 teams make the playoffs.......Who do we think gets in? Looks like since 2009 the range has gone from 35-40 playoff points or total wins of opponents. Which 5 win schools get in......I'm thinking its likely that only CC, Wilmo, and Peotone see the 6 win guaranteed berth. What 5 win schools will make it in (if any)? Is the IC8 strong enough to give enough points to those 5 win teams? I will try to look at the non-con opponents later today after IHSA updates the records..........but until then thoughts?
 
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CaravanMan

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Manteno may have the toughest shot based on remaining record. Seems to be between Peotone/Lisle as to who gets in. I expect Peotone to get to at least 5 wins based on Herscher and Streator on the schedule but tossup after that. Records go out the window with Manteno and they rarely beat Wilmo. I see Lisle with at least 5 wins as well. Should be fun and interesting these last 5 weeks.
 
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Wilmatucky

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CaravanMan said:
Manteno may have the toughest shot based on remaining record. Seems to be between Peotone/Lisle as to who gets in. I expect Peotone to get to at least 5 wins based on Herscher and Streator on the schedule but tossup after that. Records go out the window with Manteno and they rarely beat Wilmo. I see Lisle with at least 5 wins as well. Should be fun and interesting these last 5 weeks.
Click to expand...

That's the question.....even with 5, based on their non-con schedule who can get in still?

Manteno has to beat Peotone to get to 5.
Peotone and Lisle each need that game to get to 6.
Peotone also would have to beat Manteno to get to 6.

Lisle and Peotone each should get 5 for sure but will they make it in with that.
 
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Doctor_D

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For playoffs I see Coal City, Wilmington and Peotone as in.

Lisle and Manteno have a shot.

Lisle has a reasonable path to 5 wins but they need help from their non-con teams for points. Lisle currently 3-1 with likely upcoming wins against R-C and Streator. Obviously one more than that would get them to 6.

Manteno sitting at 1-3. Should be wins against R-C, Streator and Herscher left on the schedule. They would have to beat all their remaining opponents except one.
(for arguments sake I'll say a loss to Coal City and an upset over their arch-rival Peotone isn't an impossible scenario)
 
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Wilmatucky

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doctor_d said:
For playoffs I see Coal City, Wilmington and Peotone as in.

Lisle and Manteno have a shot.

Lisle has a reasonable path to 5 wins but they need help from their non-con teams for points. Lisle currently 3-1 with likely upcoming wins against R-C and Streator. Obviously one more than that would get them to 6.

Manteno sitting at 1-3. Should be wins against R-C, Streator and Herscher left on the schedule. They would have to beat all their remaining opponents except one.
(for arguments sake I'll say a loss to Coal City and an upset over their arch-rival Peotone isn't an impossible scenario)
Click to expand...

If teno beats the tone then Peotone will only have 5 wins. Assuming they lose to Wilmo and Lisle. I will check points later to see if 5 looks ok for them.
 
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Doctor_D

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I don’t think Peotone will lose to Lisle, but yeah I suppose it’s not outside the realm of possibility. Still plenty of scenarios left. It’s pretty early.
 
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Coalertown44

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I think Peotone (if they stay healthy) will win at least 7 games. I also give them a shot to beat Wilmington also
 
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Wilmatucky

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Is there any truth to this, I may have even asked before......I have heard.......If you are in a closed conference, and get to 5 wins, you will be guaranteed to have enough points to make the playoffs?
 
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Doctor_D

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Wilmatucky said:
Is there any truth to this, I may have even asked before......I have heard.......If you are in a closed conference, and get to 5 wins, you will be guaranteed to have enough points to make the playoffs?
Click to expand...

Off the top of my head: 10 team closed conference 5 wins = 36 points.
 
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Wilmatucky

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After quick math in my head (which could be shaky), IC8 members will all get 28 playoff points just from our conference schedule. To get to 36, which seems like it should be a Safe-ish number, your two non-con opponents need to account for 8 wins between the two.

Lisle- Harvard doesn't look to offer much help. Elmwood park has 2 already, Mac is on their schedule, not sure about the rest of their opponents.

Manteno- Canton and Morris should be able to get 2 more wins between the two teams. Manteno just needs to get 5 wins!

Peotone- If somehow they can't get 6 I think they are in trouble.

Streator- If they do get 5, I'm not sure if they will get enough points either. Manual offers very little and I'm not sure Morton is great.
 
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PanthersWildcats86

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Playoffs...

RC...1-3, 2-7 likely, out
Herscher...1-3, 1-8 likely, out
Streator...2-2, 3-6 likely. out

Manteno...1-3, 4-5 or 5-4 likely... With Canton & Morris both 3-1 and likely playoff bound, playoff points will not be a problem if they get to 5 wins. 4 appears very possible, 5 requires an upset of Peotone in the Route 50 Rumble. Coal City is likely going to be similar to the 3 losses, power run over the Panthers...

Lisle...3-1, 5-4 or 6-3 likely. Lisle has an advantage in that although they still have CC & Wilmo, they are both at Benedictine. Still not going to be favored in those games. Peotone in Devil's country will be the key game. Harvard is 1-3, only one game left they are the definite favorite - hapless Hoopeston. Elmwood Park is 2-2, with winnable games against Westmont, Christ the King and Guerin left.

Peotone...3-1, 7-2 likely, 5-4 possible. Realistically Manteno is the key game, as they have to win to have a shot. Loss to Wilmo likely. Lisle is interesting. Peoria Manuel is 0-4, likely only one possible win...Tinley Park is 2-2, maybe two more wins on the schedule...5-4 will likely have playoff points problems.

Wilmington...4-0, 8-1 or 9-0 likely...CC is the key game. But playoff points are likely to stink...Oak Lawn Community is maybe in one game. Evergreen Park has a shot at 5 wins...

Coal City...4-0, 9-0 or 8-1 likely...Wilmo is the key game. Right now they lead 4A in playoff points, and one more than IC...

And, if you are paying attention, McNamara this week is the biggest school in 3A at 564.3...cutoff is 2-2 with 18 playoff points - to the next tiebreaker, a bunch of 2-2 18 pointers are under the cut line...Streator is the biggest in 4A...but Plano/Sandwich/Streator are right now above the cut line in 4A, but none of them are likely to sniff an actual berth, pushing the line back down...
 
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Jrc1282

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Plano will finish 2-7 If the dice roll there way 3-6 and that would take out sandwich
Sandwich looks like a 4-5 or 5-4 if they can beat Rochelle which will be tough, that’s counting on a win in both Plano and ottawa
Really wish they were in the conference with you guys they would of done well but the last couple of games in the new i8 they are so one sided it’s sick.
Coal city is a lock
Wilmo looks great as usual
peotone will go as well
 
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Wilmatucky

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I guess I was worried about PP for the 5 win teams, but we should be thinking about the playoff qualifiers and how many they get as well. I think Wilmo in a Semifinal game is as tough as anyone and CC needs to play IC at CC.

I will go one record as saying (again), I think the higher seed should have the option to defer a home game first round in an effort to get a home game deeper in the playoffs. Heck maybe even the first two rounds.
 
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Coalertown44

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Well Soucies newest round of projections leave a tough but winnable road for the Coalers. 4A North is absolutely loaded. Mac to 3A would throw a monkey wrench in to the 3A postseason. I think they would be a favorite to win 3A
 
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Coalertown44

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As of right now, and this could changhe., Here is how I see the ICE playing out
CC 9-0
Peotone 8-1
Wilmo 7-2
Lisle 5-4
Manteno 4-5
Streator 3-6
RC 2-7
Herscher 1-8

The Lisle/Streator game week 9 will be big for the Lions. I have seen Streator on film, they have some weapons but Lisle gets this at home which helps. Lisle at 5-4 should get in. Elmwood Park has a favorable schedule and should pick up 6 wins. Harvard will only give them about 1 or 2
 
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Siu477

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I think all the talk about playoff points is kind of irrelevant. If you look at Soucie's article he wrote last week I believe. He mentions that there's a chance some 4-5's might get in because of the number of 11 man football teams being down.

For argument sakes, let's look at Peotone and Lisle, 18 and 19 points currently each and are both 3-1. In the next 5 weeks, they're both guaranteed at least 3 points each week. 3 points times 5 weeks is another 15 points. Puts them at 33 and 34. If they both finish 5-4, means they'll get an additional 3 points each which puts them at 36 and 37. That's not including what their non cons do in the next few weeks. Not sure on either of them but just 36 or 37 isn't a horrible number and It'll probably be bigger than that.

That said, Soucie says if it does come down to 5-4 teams, the cutoff line will probably be as low as it's ever been.

Moral of the story, get to 5-4 and you're probably in this year.
 
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PanthersWildcats86

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Weather could be an interesting factor at Manteno...They have been playing 3-4 Rivals Cup soccer games on the field multiple nights this week. The field is likely well aerated...good thing the Panthers aren't playing Wilmo this week, the double wing would likely decimated the field...

And there is a full Rivals Cups schedule on Saturday, so a rainout is a scheduling disaster...
 
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Circletrack3227

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Coalertown44 said:
Well Soucies newest round of projections leave a tough but winnable road for the Coalers. 4A North is absolutely loaded. Mac to 3A would throw a monkey wrench in to the 3A postseason. I think they would be a favorite to win 3A
Click to expand...

Where do you find this at? Sure do miss Catch22’s weekly hypothetical!
 
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PanthersWildcats86

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Wilmatucky said:
After quick math in my head (which could be shaky), IC8 members will all get 28 playoff points just from our conference schedule. To get to 36, which seems like it should be a Safe-ish number, your two non-con opponents need to account for 8 wins between the two.
Click to expand...

8 team round robin gives 7 conference games. 4 conference games per week. Winless team gets 4 pp per week. Undefeated conference champ gets 3 per week in conference.

7-0 champ gets 21 pp in conference.
6-1 gets 22 in conference.
5-2 gets 23 in conference.
4-3 gets 24 in con.
3-4 gets 25 in con.
2-5 gets 26, prays for a miracle that 4-5 gets in.

This year non-con...2 CC, 2 Wilmo, 2 'Tone, 2 Lisle, 1 Rc, 1 Streator, 1 Herscher, 0 Manteno...11 total. Each school gets 11 minus their non-con wins more pp from conference games.

So Manteno, lets say, goes 5-2 in conference. The Panthers get 23 pp for conference games, plus 11 for the non-con wins, for 34 conference points. Morris & Canton are both 3-1 now...So if Manteno gets to 5 wins, they will have 40 pp right now + any more Morris/Canton wins.

Say Lisle goes 3-4 in conference...25 + 9 = 34 conference points. Harvard is 0-4, Elmwood is 2-2. A 5 win Lions would have 36 pp + any more Harvard/EP wins...
 
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Wilmatucky

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PanthersWildcats86 said:
8 team round robin gives 7 conference games. 4 conference games per week. Winless team gets 4 pp per week. Undefeated conference champ gets 3 per week in conference.

7-0 champ gets 21 pp in conference.
6-1 gets 22 in conference.
5-2 gets 23 in conference.
4-3 gets 24 in con.
3-4 gets 25 in con.
2-5 gets 26, prays for a miracle that 4-5 gets in.

This year non-con...2 CC, 2 Wilmo, 2 'Tone, 2 Lisle, 1 Rc, 1 Streator, 1 Herscher, 0 Manteno...11 total. Each school gets 11 minus their non-con wins more pp from conference games.

So Manteno, lets say, goes 5-2 in conference. The Panthers get 23 pp for conference games, plus 11 for the non-con wins, for 34 conference points. Morris & Canton are both 3-1 now...So if Manteno gets to 5 wins, they will have 40 pp right now + any more Morris/Canton wins.

Say Lisle goes 3-4 in conference...25 + 9 = 34 conference points. Harvard is 0-4, Elmwood is 2-2. A 5 win Lions would have 36 pp + any more Harvard/EP wins...
Click to expand...

I thought PP was just total wins of all opppnents.
 
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PanthersWildcats86

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Wilmatucky said:
I mean no matter what there are 4 ICE wins over 7 weeks. So each member will get 28 as a base....am I right about that?
Click to expand...

There are 4 ICE games each week. But your team is playing in one of the 4 games. So if you win, you only get 3 pp. So the 7-0 only gets 21 pp, but 7 wins...the 0-7 gets 28 pp, but no wins...
 
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PanthersWildcats86

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Panthers 21, Comets 0 4 min left half

Wurster has a ton of rushing yards

Rivals Cup soccer was moved to Bradley, other than torn up spots in front of goalposts from soccer goalies field in decent shape
 
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PanthersWildcats86

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Panthers 28, Comets 0 half.

Last possession before half Wurster tackled on catch inside 5 as time expired. Wurster has 2 rushing td, 1 receiving td, and 2 other catches for another 50+ yards...

Sparse crowd, Panther Middle School softball playing for state IESA title right now, VB tourney in gym, band & cheerleaders & show choir in parade which starts in about 15 min.
 
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Coalertown44

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Coalers 49 Streator 0. It was pretty much over right away. Coal City caused 4 turnovers. Only allowed 2 first downs, Streator had negative yardage going in to the fourth quarter. Hutchings had 3 td passes to three different receivers. Three different players had rushing touchdowns
 
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