If the PLAYOFFS started today (10/12)........

[Catch--22]

This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The outlook doesn't adjust for the teams ineligible for the playoffs from the CPS "Chicago" conferences (teams who finish 3rd place and lower). The outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of all that before proceeding.

The cut-off this week was 4-3, 29 pp.... 8 teams have this record. Only 2 of the 8 made the playoffs on the IHSA Outlook (Tremont & Pleasant Plains)

I pulled Schurz (7A), Steinmetz (7A), Mather (6A), Washington (6A), Foreman (6A), Clark (3A), and Douglass (1A) out of the playoffs because of the CPS "Chicago" conference rule. I inserted Hersey into the playoffs because the MSL East did not have a team qualified yet. This leaves us with 250 teams.

To choose the final 6 teams this week was easy. I simply take the remaining 6 teams at 4-3/29. They are Auburn (2A), Fairfield (3A), Herscher (4A), Ottawa (6A), Centenniel (6A), and Niles North (7A). 256, no additional tie-breakers!

The "first team out" could've been Hyde Park. The Thunderbirds were the only team at 4-3/28, but they are ineligible due to the CPS "Chicago" conference rule. Of all the teams at 4-3/27, Peoria Heights has a second tie-breaker of 10. They are team 257 this week over Mt. Olive, El Paso-Gridley, Phoenix Military (also CPS ineligible), Hampshire, and West Aurora. Hersey, in as a conference rep, is also 4-3/27

To balance the classes at 32 each was easy this week too. I had to make only 4 moves overall.

______________________________________________________________________

COMMENTS
The classes got much smaller in enrollment, with the bubble teams trending down by 100 or more students in the bigger classes. Phillips is now squarely in 4A.... Naz and MCC are knocking on the door of 6A.... GW is on deck for 8A.

LWN and LWE could be on a collision course.

If Naz and MCC finish straddling the 6A/5A bubble as teams 96 and 97, I wonder which school is considered bigger. Both are listed at 1192.95.

Next week, my final look... Maybe I'll throw in nicknames for fun.

ENJOY!!!


~~~~~ 8A ~~~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Plainfield South at #1 Loyola
#17 Curie at #16 South Elgin
#25 Waubonsie Valley at #8 Barrington
#24 Fremd at #9 Conant

#29 Glenbard East at #4 Homewood-Flossmoor
#20 Palatine at #13 Sandburg
#28 Stevenson at #5 Hinsdale Central
#21 Lyons at #12 Neuqua Valley

Lower Bracket
#31 Bolingbrook at #2 Huntley
#18 Maine South at #15 Oswego
#26 Simeon at #7 Brother Rice
#23 Evanston at #10 Naperville Central

#30 Schaumburg at #3 Edwardsville
#19 Marist at #14 Notre Dame
#27 Warren at #6 Oak Park
#22 Belleville East at #11 New Trier

--- 2nd smallest school - Simeon 2311
--- Smallest school - Schaumburg 2308


~~~~~ 7A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Glenbard West 2283
--- 2nd largest school - Lincoln Park 2257

Upper Bracket
#32 Hersey at #1 Glenbard West
#17 Crystal Lake South at #16 Lincoln Park
#25 St. Charles North at #8 Thornton
#24 Jacobs at #9 Normal

#29 Rock Island at #4 Libertyville
#20 Bradley Bourbannais at #13 Auburn
#28 Pekin at #5 Geneva
#21 Glenbard North at #12 Reavis

Lower Bracket
#31 Niles North at #2 Lincoln-Way North
#18 Lincoln-Way East at #15 Benet
#26 Hubbard at #7 Batavia
#23 Hononegah at #10 Mount Carmel

#30 Quincy at #3 Whitney Young
#19 Plainfield North at #14 Glenbrook North
#27 Lincoln-Way Central at #6 Cary-Grove
#22 Harlem at #11 Eisenhower

--- 2nd smallest school - Lincoln-Way North 1718
--- Smallest school - Hubbard 1685



~~~~~ 6A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Lake Forest 1674
--- 2nd largest school - Guilford 1671

Upper Bracket
#16 Guilford at #1 Montini
#9 Lakes #8 Belvidere North
#13 Kaneland at #4 DeKalb
#12 Grayslake North at #5 Glenbard South

#15 Belvidere at #2 Prairie Ridge
#10 Vernon Hills at #7 Kenwood
#14 Lake Forest at #3 Riverside-Brookfield
#11 St. Ignatius at #6 King

Lower Bracket
#16 Centenniel at #1 Peoria Notre Dame
#9 Hinsdale South at #8 Dunlap
#13 Galesburg at #4 Peoria
#12 Normal West at #5 Lemont

#15 Ottawa at #2 Oak Forest
#10 Morgan Park at #7 Lincoln-Way West
#14 Glenwood at #3 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#11 Richards at #6 Crete-Monee

--- 2nd smallest school - Glenbard South 1228
--- Smallest school - King 1217.7


~~~~~ 5A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Taylorville 1199
--- 2nd largest school - Marian Central and Nazareth 1192.95

Upper Bracket
#16 Freeport at #1 Joliet Catholic
#9 Tinley Park #8 Marian Central
#13 Sycamore at #4 Sterling
#12 DuSable at #5 Payton

#15 Woodstock North at #2 Lindblom
#10 Nazareth at #7 Solorio Academy
#14 Hillcrest at #3 Westinghouse
#11 Ridgewood at #6 St. Laurence

Lower Bracket
#16 Jacksonville at #1 Washington
#9 Metamora at #8 Centralia
#13 Limestone at #4 Geneseo
#12 Mattoon at #5 Champaign Central

#15 Mahomet-Seymour at #2 Triad
#10 Eisenhower at #7 Highland
#14 Marion at #3 Taylorville
#11 Rich Central at #6 University

--- 2nd smallest school - Geneseo 814
--- Smallest school - Taylorville 809


~~~~~ 4A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Dixon 806
--- 2nd largest school - Civic Memorial 766

Upper Bracket
#16 Herscher at #1 Phillips
#9 Johnsburg #8 Pontiac
#13 Coal City at #4 Princeton
#12 St. Edward at #5 Rockford Lutheran

#15 Genoa-Kingston at #2 Manteno
#10 Agricultural Science at #7 Richmond-Burton
#14 Wheaton Academy at #3 Marengo
#11 Dixon at #6 Plano

Lower Bracket
#16 Alton Marquette at #1 Althoff Catholic
#9 Quincy Notre Dame at #8 Murphysboro
#13 Mount Zion at #4 Bloomington Central Catholic
#12 Richland County at #5 Civic Memorial

#15 Carterville at #2 Rochester
#10 Mater Dei at #7 Herrin
#14 DuQuoin at #3 Columbia
#11 Breese Central at #6 Harrisburg

--- 2nd smallest school - BCC 546
--- Smallest school - DuQuoin 545

~~~~~ 3A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Monmouth-Roseville 539
--- 2nd largest school - Roxana 538

Upper Bracket
#16 ROWVA at #1 Wilmington
#9 DePaul #8 Orr
#13 Winnebago at #4 Elmwood-Brimfield
#12 Monmouth-Roseville at #5 Raby

#15 Farmington at #2 Immaculate Conception
#10 St. Bede at #7 Lisle
#14 North Boone at #3 Bishop McNamara
#11 Erie-Prophetstown at #6 Byron

Lower Bracket
#16 Fairfield at #1 St. Joseph-Ogden
#9 Carlinville at #8 Roxana
#13 Sullivan-Okaw Valley at #4 Paxton-Buckley-Loda
#12 Williamsville at #5 Monticello

#15 Pleasant Plains at #2 North Mac
#10 Wesclin at #7 Unity
#14 Hillsboro at #3 Newton
#11 Vandalia at #6 Marshall

--- 2nd smallest school - Farmington 411
--- Smallest school - Wesclin 409



~~~~~ 2A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Newman Central Catholic 407.55
--- 2nd largest school - New Berlin 407

Upper Bracket
#16 Rockridge at #1 Tri-Valley
#9 Mendon-Unity #8 Deer Creek-Mackinaw
#13 Momence at #4 Newman Central Catholic
#12 West Hancock at #5 Hall

#15 Knoxville at #2 Kewanee-Wethersfield
#10 Westville at #7 United
#14 Christian Life at #3 Bismarck-Henning
#11 West Carroll at #6 Fieldcrest

Lower Bracket
#16 Auburn at #1 Chester
#9 Niantic-Sangamon Valley at #8 Lawrenceville
#13 Rushville-Industry at #4 Villa Grove-Heritage
#12 Johnston City at #5 Nashville

#15 Carlyle at #2 Pana
#10 Cerro Gordo-Bement at #7 New Berlin
#14 Sparta at #3 Eldorado
#11 Maroa-Forsyth at #6 Shelbyville

--- 2nd smallest school - Knoxville 322
--- Smallest school - Deer Creek-Mackinaw 317


~~~~~ 1A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Georgetown-Ridge Farm 315
--- 2nd largest school - Gibson City-Melvin-Sibley 312

Upper Bracket
#16 Tremont at #1 Stark County
#9 Forreston #8 Princeville
#13 Milledgeville at #4 Lena-Winslow
#12 Stockton at #5 Polo

#15 Ashton-Franklin Center at #2 Ottawa Marquette
#10 Galena at #7 Orion
#14 Warren at #3 Hope Academy
#11 Westminster Christian at #6 Dakota

Lower Bracket
#16 Astoria-South Fulton at #1 Tuscola
#9 Salt Fork at #8 West Central
#13 LeRoy at #4 Arcola
#12 Triopia at #5 Carrollton

#15 Red Hill at #2 Brown County
#10 St. Teresa at #7 Greenfield-Northwestern
#14 Georgetown-Ridge Farm at #3 Gibson City-Melvin-Sibley
#11 Decatur Lutheran at #6 Pawnee

 

[Hinterland]

Catch - in answer to your question regarding Naz and MCC, it would be by a coin flip.

 

[BretEpic]

Please let Phillips play Herscher in round one...

 

[Bwm57]

#2 LWN would have LWE, Batavia and MC to deal with in their group of 8.
Much better to be the #3 in this scenario.

 

[capnbillhitters]

excellent work Catch

Biggest game this week for 7A would be Batavia v Geneva.

If Batavia wins, MC gets bumped up to quad with GW as Geneva falls below MC and if MC loses to Loyola, then Libertyville has a 2nd round game with MC. How interesting would that be?

 

[Goomlah]

no quads any more capnbillhitters

 

[jdhitters]

Cap 7 and 8 are straight 1 to 32. 1 goes in one bracket then 2, 3 in other and next two back in first bracket etc. 6a and below are geographically matched up. At least that's how I understand it. If I'm wrong I'm sure someone will correct me.

 

[capnbillhitters]

no quads any more capnbillhitters

sorry...I meant quads as in lower case q which was lazy shorthand for section with four teams in it...not Quads as in 1A-6A seeding within the Quads.

Just thinking that a round 2 game for Lville with MC might be a real eye opener, ESPECIALLY since the game would be played at Gately...long way to go, but I would have some concern if I were Lville

 

[capnbillhitters]

Cap 7 and 8 are straight 1 to 32. 1 goes in one bracket then 2, 3 in other and next two back in first bracket etc. 6a and below are geographically matched up. At least that's how I understand it. If I'm wrong I'm sure someone will correct me.

Sorry...I made three assumptions to get to MC playing Lville in 2nd round...
Lville ends up 4 seen based on Geneva, WY and GW being seeded higher in 7A
LWN falling to 6A
MC ending at 20 seed in 7A based on where there OP wins would land them with a loss to Loy in week 9

If those occurred and MC was 20 seed and won on the road in week 10, then Lville would travel to Gately to play MC in week 11. Not exactly a kind gift for a 9-0 season.

Sorry if I am over thinking, but just having some Monday fun

 

[Catch--22]

Overthinking is the fun of all of this… Scenarios like the one you described, for the guys that really understand how this works, are fun to watch materialize… Or not fun I guess.

Mont Carmel and Lincoln-Way East look to be a lower seeded headaches in 7A for sure. Especially when some teams a lot worse than Libertyville will get to play the winner of a CPS versus CPS match up. Yet it seems almost certain that GW or Libertyville could be dealing with MC or LWE a lot earlier than they would hope for

 

[badfrog68]

I know that Montini and SHG have been pushed up a level due to the success factor, but in this present scenario I think it made Montini get an easier draw since they will not have to deal with JCA. There is a good chance that every team shown in the upper bracket of 6A will have at least (2) losses.

# 2 Prarie Ridge (6 - 1) has a tough OOC game week 9 vs. a very good Crete team (6 - 1)
# 3 R-B (6 - 1 with no quality wins yet) vs. Glenbard South (5 - 2)
# 4 DeKalb (6 -1) has a tough crossover game week 9 vs. a very good Geneseo team (6 - 1)
#5 Glenbard South (see above) already has (2) losses

Even if Naz (6A bubble) gets moved up, while it will make Montini's road much more difficult, Naz also has (2) losses (albeit 1 a quality loss (JCA) and 1 a possible fluke (Marion of Woodstock).

SHG, on the other hand, was not done any favors as the lower half of the 6A bracket is full of land mines

JCA also benefits (especially if Naz is moved up) as they walk into the 5A state finals and probably the 5A State Championship

 

[Cross Bones]

This is a bracket I can support.

 

[hornetnation7]

I know that Montini and SHG have been pushed up a level due to the success factor, but in this present scenario I think it made Montini get an easier draw since they will not have to deal with JCA. There is a good chance that every team shown in the upper bracket of 6A will have at least (2) losses.

# 2 Prarie Ridge (6 - 1) has a tough OOC game week 9 vs. a very good Crete team (6 - 1)
# 3 R-B (6 - 1 with no quality wins yet) vs. Glenbard South (5 - 2)
# 4 DeKalb (6 -1) has a tough crossover game week 9 vs. a very good Geneseo team (6 - 1)
#5 Glenbard South (see above) already has (2) losses

Even if Naz (6A bubble) gets moved up, while it will make Montini's road much more difficult, Naz also has (2) losses (albeit 1 a quality loss (JCA) and 1 a possible fluke (Marion of Woodstock).

SHG, on the other hand, was not done any favors as the lower half of the 6A bracket is full of land mines

JCA also benefits (especially if Naz is moved up) as they walk into the 5A state finals and probably the 5A State Championship

Agreed. More evidence to support 1-32 seeding in 6A..

 

[cmdynasty]

I know that Montini and SHG have been pushed up a level due to the success factor, but in this present scenario I think it made Montini get an easier draw since they will not have to deal with JCA. There is a good chance that every team shown in the upper bracket of 6A will have at least (2) losses.

# 2 Prarie Ridge (6 - 1) has a tough OOC game week 9 vs. a very good Crete team (6 - 1)
# 3 R-B (6 - 1 with no quality wins yet) vs. Glenbard South (5 - 2)
# 4 DeKalb (6 -1) has a tough crossover game week 9 vs. a very good Geneseo team (6 - 1)
#5 Glenbard South (see above) already has (2) losses

Even if Naz (6A bubble) gets moved up, while it will make Montini's road much more difficult, Naz also has (2) losses (albeit 1 a quality loss (JCA) and 1 a possible fluke (Marion of Woodstock).

SHG, on the other hand, was not done any favors as the lower half of the 6A bracket is full of land mines

JCA also benefits (especially if Naz is moved up) as they walk into the 5A state finals and probably the 5A State Championship

How do you think the Prairie Ridge versus Crete match up will go? That seems like a playoff game itself!

 

[cmdynasty]

6A south bracket looks to be very tough. The north bracket looks like a runaway for Montini.

 

[goodnamesaregone]

Would Bolingbrook be able to make it in with only 5 wins or will it need to win its last 2 games to make it in?

 

[badfrog68]

How do you think the Prairie Ridge versus Crete match up will go? That seems like a playoff game itself!

I have seen Crete play and they are very good. The Brother Rice loss does not seem so bad since BR beat MC. Unfortunately, I know nothing about Prarie Ridge. Both could technically meet again in the 6A playoffs but probably be in different brackets.

 

[badfrog68]

Would Bolingbrook be able to make it in with only 5 wins or will it need to win its last 2 games to make it in?

Bolingbrook should make the playoffs with 5 wins as they currently have 32 points. The problem with them is they won't have beat a team with a winning record, though they will have (4) quality losses (HF, Glenbard W., Sandburg and LWE). What does that mean come playoff time?

 

[goodnamesaregone]

Thanks, Frog. It probably means for the Raiders that they make the playoffs and lose quickly.

 

[Cross Bones]

depends on the matchup... give me a one dimensional running team in rd 1 please