If the PLAYOFFS started today (10/5)......

[Catch--22]

This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The outlook doesn't adjust for the teams ineligible for the playoffs from the CPS "Chicago" conferences (teams who finish 3rd place and lower). The outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of all that before proceeding.

The cut-off this week was 3-3, 29 pp.... 9 teams have this record. Only 2 of the 9 made the playoffs on the IHSA Outlook (Grayslake North & Normal West).

I pulled Schurz (7A), Mather (6A), Washington (6A), Foreman (5A), Orr (3A), and Douglass (1A) out of the playoffs because of the CPS "Chicago" conference rule. For the first time this season, every conference was represented in the Outlook, so I didn't need to insert any. This leaves us with 250 teams.

To choose the final 6 teams, I need to break the tie between the 7 remaining teams at 3-3/29. They were Wesclin, Christian Life, Momence, Prairie Central, East St. Louis, Glenbrook South, and Lake Park. The next tiebreaker is total victories by the teams you defeated. Every team had at least 4, except for Prairie Central and Lake Park (3 each). So Glenbrook South (8A), East St. Louis (7A), Wesclin (2A), Christian Life (2A), and Momence (2A) are in, and we have 255 teams.

To break the final tie between Prairie Central and Lake Park, we use the number of playoff qualifiers each team played. Lake Park's schedule has 6 playoff teams, one better than Prairie Central. Lake Park is team 256!

To balance the classes at 32 each, I had to make several moves in each class, and I have neither the time nor inclination to detail it all this week. Seriously, nearly 20 teams moved up or down.

Soucie has no QUADS, so neither do I. I trust that he's correct.

_________________________________________________________________________

My Under-appreciated Commentary

Let's start with the most obvious game.... I love the potential match-up of one school that eschewed the tomahawk chop and Native American mascot during the 90's versus a school that continues to chop....
2nd Round, Waubonsie Valley @ Marist!

There is a lot of Yawn Academy and Snooze College Prep in 7A. I like Carmel @ Libertyville in round one. Please football gods, bless us with GW, Gen, Lib, MC, and LWE in four different quads. We're dangerously close to GW-1, Gen-4, Lib-5, LWE-8, and MC-9 in what would be the lousiest state draw ever, with the survivor eating up a cupcake for Thanksgiving in DeKalb.

Remember the arguments for 7A over 8A a few years ago? I'm with ya Bones!!!

Some interesting south suburban flavor makes up an entire quad in the lower bracket of 6A. Rivalry match-up potential everywhere. And I like Hins South vs Lemont in round one. Neighboring districts, 8 miles apart, but are they rivals at all? They don't play each other much. I'm sure the kids give each other dirty looks at the Bolingbrook Promenade Mall, but that's probably the extent of it.

BTW, if Leyden & Hinsdale South struggle the rest of the way, a 4-5 conference champ from the WSG isn't a stretch.

5A, no clue what the IHSA will do with the east/west cluster of JCA, LWW, HHS, TP, and RC.... I went strictly geography this week. Somebody mentioned the IHSA will desperately try to avoid an all-ESCC final between Naz and JCA, and I agree... good point, Somebody!

The classes all got bigger this week, resulting in Phillips falling to 3A. WOW!

There is zero Chicagoland representation in 2A.

We currently have all 4 Glenbard's and all 4 Lincoln-Way's, but we are precariously close to zero Wheaton's, zero Glenbrook's, zero Downers', and zero Plainfield's.

ENJOY!!!


~~~~~ 8A ~~~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Lake Park at #1 Loyola
#17 Neuqua Valley at #16 Oswego
#25 Belleville East at #8 Brother Rice
#24 Glenbard East at #9 Lyons

#29 Minooka at #4 Barrington
#20 Warren at #13 Fremd
#28 West Aurora at #5 New Trier
#21 Maine South at #12 Naperville Central

Lower Bracket
#31 Glenbrook South at #2 Huntley
#18 South Elgin at #15 Notre Dame
#26 Evanston at #7 Edwardsville
#23 Palatine at #10 Hinsdale Central

#30 Stevenson at #3 Oak Park
#19 Curie at #14 Sandburg
#27 Waubonsie Valley at #6 Homewood-Flossmoor
#22 Marist at #11 Conant

--- 2nd smallest school - Conant 2351
--- Smallest school - Maine South 2338


~~~~~ 7A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Simeon 2311
--- 2nd largest school - Schaumburg 2308

Upper Bracket
#32 East St. Louis at #1 Glenbard West
#17 Benet at #16 Schaumburg
#25 Simeon at #8 Normal
#24 Mundelien at #9 Eisenhower

#29 Carmel at #4 Libertyville
#20 Bradley Bourbannais at #13 Reavis
#28 Lincoln-Way Central at #5 Lincoln Park
#21 Glenbard North at #12 Auburn

Lower Bracket
#31 Wheaton North at #2 Whitney Young
#18 Pekin at #15 Glenbrook North
#26 Rolling Meadows at #7 Lincoln-Way East
#23 St. Charles North at #10 Mount Carmel

#30 Addison Trail at #3 Geneva
#19 Plainfield North at #14 Jacobs
#27 Fenwick at #6 Batavia
#22 Hononegah at #11 Harlem

--- 2nd smallest school - Eisenhower 1837
--- Smallest school - Reavis 1831



~~~~~ 6A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - TF South 1814
--- 2nd largest school - Cary-Grove 1803

Upper Bracket
#16 Grayslake North at #1 Montini
#9 Belvidere North #8 Kenwood
#13 Deerfield at #4 DeKalb
#12 St. Francis at #5 Riverside-Brookfield

#15 St. Ignatius at #2 Cary-Grove
#10 Lakes at #7 Lake Forest
#14 Antioch at #3 Crystal Lake South
#11 Hampshire at #6 Prairie Ridge

Lower Bracket
#16 Normal West at #1 Lincoln-Way North
#9 Galesburg at #8 Richards
#13 Hubbard at #4 Peoria Notre Dame
#12 Morgan Park at #5 Sacred Heart-Griffin

#15 Yorkville at #2 Thornton
#10 Ottawa at #7 Crete-Monee
#14 TF South at #3 Oak Forest
#11 Hinsdale South at #6 Lemont

--- 2nd smallest school - Antioch 1317
--- Smallest school - Peoria Notre Dame 1295


~~~~~ 5A ~~~~~


--- Largest school - Lincoln-Way West 1287
--- 2nd largest school - Peoria 1282

Upper Bracket
#16 Sycamore at #1 Joliet Catholic
#9 Glenbard South #8 Vernon Hills
#13 Hillcrest at #4 Tinley Park
#12 S. Laurence at #5 Nazareth

#15 Freeport at #2 Solorio Academy
#10 King at #7 DuSable
#14 Belvidere at #3 Westinghouse
#11 Marian Central at #6 Sterling

Lower Bracket
#16 Mattoon at #1 Washington
#9 Rich Central at #8 University
#13 Jacksonville at #4 Highland
#12 Mahomet-Seymour at #5 Lincoln-Way West

#15 Limestone at #2 Triad
#10 Dunlap at #7 Champaign Central
#14 Eisenhower at #3 Peoria
#11 Marion at #6 Metamora

--- 2nd smallest school - Jacksonville 953
--- Smallest school - Mahomet-Seymour 952

~~~~~ 4A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Centralia 923
--- 2nd largest school - Rochelle 918

Upper Bracket
#16 Rochelle at #1 Geneseo
#9 St. Edward #8 Payton
#13 Ridgewood at #4 Lindblom
#12 Agricultural Science at #5 Richmond Burton

#15 Aurora Central Catholic at #2 Marengo
#10 Wheaton Academy at #7 Johnsburg
#14 Dixon at #3 Rockford Lutheran
#11 Coal City at #6 Plano

Lower Bracket
#16 Macomb at #1 Althoff Catholic
#9 Centralia at #8 Harrisburg
#13 Richland County at #4 Columbia
#12 Pontiac at #5 Taylorville

#15 Mt. Zion at #2 Manteno
#10 Quincy Notre Dame at #7 Herrin
#14 Herscher at #3 Rochester
#11 Mater Dei at #6 Civic Memorial

--- 2nd smallest school - Harrisburg 591
--- Smallest school - Macomb 572

~~~~~ 3A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Murphysboro 567
--- 2nd largest school - Phillips 559

Upper Bracket
#16 Monmouth-Roseville at #1 Phillips
#9 DePaul #8 Bishop McNamara
#13 North Boone at #4 Raby
#12 Clark at #5 Immaculate Conception

#15 Erie-Prophetstown at #2 Wilmington
#10 St. Bede at #7 Byron
#14 ROWVA at #3 Princeton
#11 Lisle at #6 Bloomington Central Catholic

Lower Bracket
#16 DuQuoin at #1 St. Joseph-Ogden
#9 Unity at #8 Breese Central
#13 Hillsboro at #4 Marshall
#12 Carlinville at #5 Murphysboro

#15 Pinckneyville at #2 North Mac
#10 Roxana at #7 Paxton-Buckley-Loda
#14 Fairfield at #3 Newton
#11 Sullivan-Okaw Valley at #6 Monticello

--- 2nd smallest school - Carlinville 419
--- Smallest school - Marshall 417

~~~~~ 2A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Elmwood-Brimfield 414
--- 2nd largest school - Farmington 411

Upper Bracket
#16 Christian Life at #1 Tri-Valley
#9 Elmwood-Brimfield #8 Hall
#13 Farmington at #4 Bismarck-Henning
#12 West Carroll at #5 Newman Central Catholic

#15 Momence at #2 Kewanee-Wethersfield
#10 West Hancock at #7 Fieldcrest
#14 El Paso-Gridley at #3 Maroa-Forsyth
#11 Westville at #6 United

Lower Bracket
#16 Wesclin at #1 Chester
#9 New Berlin at #8 Lawrenceville
#13 Mendon-Unity at #4 Eldorado
#12 Cerro Gordo-Bement at #5 Villa Grove-Heritage

#15 Carlyle at #2 Pana
#10 Johnston City at #7 Shelbyville
#14 Rushville-Industry at #3 Niantic-Sangamon Valley
#11 Sparta at #6 Nashville

--- 2nd smallest school - Johnston City 326
--- Smallest school - Tri-Valley 325

~~~~~ 1A ~~~~~

--- Largest school - Deer Creek-Mackinaw 317
--- 2nd largest school - Georgetown-Ridge Farm 315

NEXT WEEK!!!

 

[GEPreps]

Conant (2351) is smaller than Edwardsville (2355) and 2nd smallest in your 8A bracket.

 

[CCHS-Fan]

Carmel Catholic at The 'Ville would be U-G-L-Y!!!

Lots of Corsair DNA on that Wildcats team.

 

[Catch--22]

Conant (2351) is smaller than Edwardsville (2355) and 2nd smallest in your 8A bracket.

Thanks GE.... I figured it wouldn't be long before I screwed up one of those teams

 

[GEPreps]

I do not believe that Glenbard West and Glenbard North have ever met on the gridiron.
Could make for a great 7A semi-final.

 

[eireog]

8A is a little more balanced this week after that gauntlet in the upper bracket of the upper bracket last week.

 

[Ogre5530]

Great stuff!

 

[UlbKA91]

Carmel Catholic at The 'Ville would be U-G-L-Y!!!

Lots of Corsair DNA on that Wildcats team.

Damn those Lake County property taxes - thats why there's 2 Cath H.S.s in Will (with others poaching talent) and 1.# (plus St. J in Kenosha and LA for the occasional recruit) in Lake.

 

[GEPreps]

We're dangerously close to GW-1, Gen-4, Lib-5, LWE-8, and MC-9 in what would be the lousiest state draw ever, with the survivor eating up a cupcake for Thanksgiving in DeKalb.

By the end of the season, there are scenarios that could have Lincoln-Way North as one of the smallest schools in 7A and LWN currently has one more playoff point than GW. If LWN stays undefeated, they could end up as the top seed in 7A.

 

[badfrog68]

Great job as always Catch!

As a fan of LWW, I like the fact that you have them in the lower bracket of 5A. I expected you to have them as the
2 seed in the top half of that bracket behind JCA. I think this draw would fit them better.

As for all the Lincoln Ways being included, that will only last until week 9. LWC still has to play LWN (6 - 0) and
Thornton (6 - 0) so they should end up 4 - 5.

And to GEPreps - LWN still has a very tough schedule to remain undefeated. They have a huge game this week against Thornton and end against LWW. If they win out and go undefeated, with their playoff points, they should be a 1 seed in either 6A or 7A. That would be a great way to finish their final season.

 

[capnbillhitters]

Great job as always Catch!

And to GEPreps - LWN still has a very tough schedule to remain undefeated. They have a huge game this week against Thornton and end against LWW. If they win out and go undefeated, with their playoff points, they should be a 1 seed in either 6A or 7A. That would be a great way to finish their final season.

Soucie has LWN as the 3rd or 4th largest 6A. Not sure they could possibly get up to 7A unless drastic things happen

 

[GEPreps]

There are thousands of possibilities between now and the end of the season. I guarantee you that no one has picked all the winning games.

Can you give me an example of some of the drastic outcomes that need to occur?

 

[capnbillhitters]

No

 

[jdhitters]

There are thousands of possibilities between now and the end of the season. I guarantee you that no one has picked all the winning games.

Can you give me an example of some of the drastic outcomes that need to occur?

More strikes??

 

[hornetnation7]

Soucie has LWN as the 3rd or 4th largest 6A. Not sure they could possibly get up to 7A unless drastic things happen

Capn,

If you look at the bottom 4 seeds in 7A and 8A above, you will see that some have a tough road to the playoffs. For example,

• LP needs 2/3 against NC (5-1), NV (5-1), and GN (4-2)
• GBS needs 2/3 against Evanston (4-2), NT (6-0), Wauk
• WN needs 2/3 against NV (5-1), NC (5-1), WV (4-2)
• Carmel needs 2/3 against Benet (4-2), MCC (4-2), ND (5-1)

If these schools don't make thru tough final 3 games, then you start to see schools like LWN bumped up. I am sure there are cases that work in the other direction, but these stick out so not all that far fetched. Again, lots of variables to play out, but these 4 lower seeds have considerable work to do.

 

[Bwm57]

It's really hard to predict for sure until at least another week goes by about the final classes for those near the cutoffs.
LWN did end up in 7A last year, but each year is a little different.

 

[capnbillhitters]

Capn,

If you look at the bottom 4 seeds in 7A and 8A above, you will see that some have a tough road to the playoffs. For example,

• LP needs 2/3 against NC (5-1), NV (5-1), and GN (4-2)
• GBS needs 2/3 against Evanston (4-2), NT (6-0), Wauk
• WN needs 2/3 against NV (5-1), NC (5-1), WV (4-2)
• Carmel needs 2/3 against Benet (4-2), MCC (4-2), ND (5-1)

If these schools don't make thru tough final 3 games, then you start to see schools like LWN bumped up. I am sure there are cases that work in the other direction, but these stick out so not all that far fetched. Again, lots of variables to play out, but these 4 lower seeds have considerable work to do.

So the hardest part is bouncing back and forth between this and Soucie because they really are two different things. Soucie only projects one of the four teams you show above as making the playoffs...GBS as he likely agrees that the road for the other three is too steep.

It is amazing the amount of work that goes into both of these projections so I would have a hard time pulling apart and describing the craziest scenarios to prove LWN will be 6A on this thread because it requires future projected results like Soucie does over in the other thread.

That being said, my gut is that last year, Soucie started projecting GW in 8A long before others did and he was spot on. This year, he has projected GW in 7A all along, and right now, it looks like there are two projected qualifiers above GW in 7A (Simeon, MS) and one non-qualifier that could possibly qualify with one slight upset (Schaumburg). He doesn't have too many inclusions in 8A that could drop out (Plainfield South). I always look at everything from the GW perspective, so starting there, I say GW is comfortably in 7A so therefore, the cut line at the top of 7A will be somewhere between MS and GW with Simeon another possibility.

So if my top is fairly stable, then I look at the bottom and see that given all of the above, Soucie projects the smallest 7A team to be Thorton at 1797. Below Thorton, Soucie projects Shepard (1761), Crystal Lake South (1759), and Rock Island (1736) to make 6A. If LWN is 1718, they are projected to be the 4th largest school in 6A.

While I agree there are a ton of moving parts, shifting 4 slots within a single class would take a net shift in of at least 4 smaller teams as qualifiers above the number of larger teams that miss their projected placement. Basically, if would be a 48 point spread against happening.

And yes, I know, this is the wrong thread to be discussing Soucie projected vs Catch's if the playoffs started today. Catch's work deserves better

 

[hornetnation7]

So the hardest part is bouncing back and forth between this and Soucie because they really are two different things. Soucie only projects one of the four teams you show above as making the playoffs...GBS as he likely agrees that the road for the other three is too steep.

It is amazing the amount of work that goes into both of these projections so I would have a hard time pulling apart and describing the craziest scenarios to prove LWN will be 6A on this thread because it requires future projected results like Soucie does over in the other thread.

That being said, my gut is that last year, Soucie started projecting GW in 8A long before others did and he was spot on. This year, he has projected GW in 7A all along, and right now, it looks like there are two projected qualifiers above GW in 7A (Simeon, MS) and one non-qualifier that could possibly qualify with one slight upset (Schaumburg). He doesn't have too many inclusions in 8A that could drop out (Plainfield South). I always look at everything from the GW perspective, so starting there, I say GW is comfortably in 7A so therefore, the cut line at the top of 7A will be somewhere between MS and GW with Simeon another possibility.

So if my top is fairly stable, then I look at the bottom and see that given all of the above, Soucie projects the smallest 7A team to be Thorton at 1797. Below Thorton, Soucie projects Shepard (1761), Crystal Lake South (1759), and Rock Island (1736) to make 6A. If LWN is 1718, they are projected to be the 4th largest school in 6A.

While I agree there are a ton of moving parts, shifting 4 slots within a single class would take a net shift in of at least 4 smaller teams as qualifiers above the number of larger teams that miss their projected placement. Basically, if would be a 48 point spread against happening.

And yes, I know, this is the wrong thread to be discussing Soucie projected vs Catch's if the playoffs started today. Catch's work deserves better

Yes, lot's of good work here and there. You may be correct. However, not too far fetched to see LWN in 7A or GBW in 8A. Is it likely? Probably not. Could it happen? There is a chance.

If we only had a crystal ball, we could know now. Good news is that we will know much more next week this time.

 

[Hinterland]

If LWN beats Thornton this week, they indeed appear to have the inside track to maintain their #1 seed in the southern bracket of 6A. Oak Forest still has some tough games remaining, PND has Normal Community, not to mention a dominating Peoria High team and SHG still has Rochester. The bubble team shifts over the next few weeks will also determine a lot. P.S. If LWN wins out to go 9-0, it appears they will have more playoff points than any other southern bracket team who would happen to go 9-0.

 

[Bwm57]

After Thornton this week LWN still has LWC and a very tough LWW team in week 9. Hard to project too much at this point in time.

 

[UlbKA91]

Would be one hell of a movie and LWN has movie high school demographics.