If the PLAYOFFS started today.... (9/19)

[Catch--22]

Every Monday, I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for the teams ineligible for the playoffs from the CPS "Chicago" conferences (teams who finish 3rd place and lower). The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of all that before proceeding.

My adjustments.....

I pulled Taft and Foreman out of the playoffs because of the CPS "Chicago" conference rule. I inserted South Shore, Gibson City Melvin-Sibley, Oblong, and Leyden into the playoffs because their conference had zero qualifiers per the Outlook. I simply chose the top team listed by record and playoff points. That left us with 258 teams. At the bottom, 4 teams are tied at 2-2, 18 pp.... OH NO.... The next 28 teams are 2-2, 18 pp also. KILL ME NOW!

So we have 254 teams in the field at 2-2/19 or better OR as a designated conference "champ". Teams 255 and 256 come from a group of 32 teams and may take several tiebreakers. Actually, it's not as bad as it seems. Believe it or not, the very next tiebreaker (total wins by defeated opponents) eliminated 30 of the 32 teams, and left us with the two teams we need to complete the field of 256. Just to illustrate how close that final tiebreaker can be, here is the list of all 32 teams at 2-2/18, followed by the total wins of their defeated opponents. Princeville 4, Lakes 4, Jacksonville 3, Minooka 3, Belvidere 3, Bureau Valley 3, West Central 2, Red Hill 2, Luther North 2, St. Joseph-Ogden 2, Greenville 2, Murphysboro 2, Joliet West 2, Zion-Benton 2, Southwestern 1, Jefferson 1, Glenwood 1, Hampshire 1, Jacobs 1, Plainfield East 1, Auburn 1, New Berlin 1, Oakwood 1, Alden-Hebron 1, Arthur Lovington Atwood 0, Polo 0, St. Bede 0, West Prairie 0, Charleston 0, Wheaton North 0, Plainfield South 0, Bartlett 0. Congrats LAKES and PRINCEVILLE. Hard to believe that Wheaton North and St. Bede are "tied", but now you see they are in the eyes of the IHSA for playoff purposes.

From there, I adjust teams up and down into the proper classes to create 8 classes of 32 teams. My classes are 31-32-32-30-32-33-33-33 respectively. So.... Edwardsville up to 8A, Reavis up to 7A, Ignatius up to 6A, Woodstock North, Centralia, and Rochelle up to 5A, Althoff, South Shore, and Genoa-Kingston up to 4A, Carlinville and Elmwood-Brimfield up to 3A, and Eastland-Pearl City up to 2A.

I don't see quads in the 2015 playoffs, and they aren't mentioned in "How the matchups are determined", so I'm not using quads unless I get new information. I'm using the Playoff Outlook updated at 9:28 AM on 9/19. I'm not making further adjustments.

Next week you get 8A thru 3A, and I continue to add a class each week until week 8. For week 9, I give you the final projection with team nicknames.

~~~ 8A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Leyden at #1 Loyola
#17 Fremd at #16 Huntley
#25 Niles West at #8 Oak Park
#24 Bloom at #9 Lyons

#29 Lake Park at #4 Homewood-Flossmoor
#20 Lincoln-Way East at #13 Oswego East
#28 Waubonsie Valley at #5 Hinsdale Central
#21 Marist at #12 Oswego

Lower Bracket
#31 South Elgin at #2 Brother Rice
#18 Stevenson at #15 West Aurora
#26 Curie at #7 Neuqua Valley
#23 Evanston at #10 St. Charles East

#30 Naperville Central at #3 Barrington
#19 Lockport at #14 Edwardsville
#27 Bolingbrook at #6 Palatine
#22 Notre Dame at #11 Naperville North


~~~ 7A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Belleville West at #1 Fenwick
#17 St. Charles North at #16 Benet
#25 Hononegah at #8 East St. Louis
#24 McHenry at #9 Bradley-Bourbannais

#29 Maine West at #4 Hoffman Estates
#20 Lake Zurich at #13 Mount Carmel
#28 Carmel at #5 Lincoln-Way West
#21 Libertyville at #12 Schaumburg

Lower Bracket
#31 Geneva at #2 Batavia
#18 Lincoln-Way Central at #15 Highland Park
#26 Plainfield North at #7 Glenbrook North
#23 Harlem at #10 St. Patrick

#30 Pekin at #3 Glenbard West
#19 Glenbard North at #14 Normal
#27 St. Rita at #6 Lincoln Park
#22 Reavis at #11 Rolling Meadows


~~~ 6A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Lakes at #1 Prairie Ridge
#9 Deerfield #8 DeKalb
#13 Fenton at #4 Mather
#12 St. Ignatius at #5 De La Salle

#15 Crystal Lake Central at #2 Boylan Catholic
#10 Auburn at #7 Cary-Grove
#14 St. Viator at #3 Marmion
#11 Grayslake North at #6 Riverside-Brookfield

Lower Bracket
#16 Thornwood at #1 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#9 Quincy at #8 Perspectives
#13 Crete-Monee at #4 St. Laurence
#12 Providence at #5 Springfield

#15 Richards at #2 Danville
#10 Kenwood at #7 Hubbard
#14 Bremen at #3 TF South
#11 Rock Island at #6 Shepard



~~~ 5A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Marian Central Catholic at #1 Lemont
#9 Hillcrest #8 Kaneland
#13 Solorio Academy at #4 Thornridge
#12 Morgan Park at #5 Antioch

#15 Glenbard South at #2 Woodstock North
#10 Woodstock at #7 Rochelle
#14 Westinghouse at #3 Sterling
#11 Vernon Hills at #6 Oak Forest

Lower Bracket
#16 Dunlap at #1 Peoria
#9 Rich Central #8 Triad
#13 Washington at #4 Centralia
#12 Peo Notre Dame at #5 Highland

#15 Tinley Park at #2 Dec Eisenhower
#10 Rich East at #7 Galesburg
#14 Cahokia at #3 Metamora
#11 Bloomington at #6 Limestone


~~~ 4A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 South Shore at #1 Geneseo
#9 Morris #8 Rock Falls
#13 Clemente at #4 Wheaton Academy
#12 Payton at #5 Genoa-Kingston

#15 Plano at #2 Johnsburg
#10 Marengo at #7 Goode
#14 Richmond-Burton at #3 St. Edward
#11 Dixon at #6 Aurora Central Catholic

Lower Bracket
#16 Effingham at #1 Columbia
#9 Herrin #8 Manteno
#13 Q Notre Dame at #4 Taylorville
#12 Mater Dei at #5 Waterloo

#15 Richland County at #2 Rochester
#10 Mount Zion at #7 Coal City
#14 Clinton at #3 Althoff Catholic
#11 Canton at #6 Civic Memorial

 

[Voodoo Tatum 21]

Fantastic!! Geez hard to believe that Wheaton North's two wins over JCA and WWS give them zero wins from defeated opponents. When was the last time both WWS and JCA were 0-4 to start the season? Did we have color television yet?

 

[go_rice]

If I'm Brother Rice, I'm taking that bracket and freezing it as is!

 

[godfthr53]

Fantastic!! Geez hard to believe that Wheaton North's two wins over JCA and WWS give them zero wins from defeated opponents. When was the last time both WWS and JCA were 0-4 to start the season? Did we have color television yet?

Did we even have television.

 

[Voodoo Tatum 21]

If I'm Brother Rice, I'm taking that bracket and freezing it as is!

LWE, Loyola, HF all in the upper bracket.... Wow! I think BR is lonely in the lower bracket.

Nice Illustrator on just how important a little luck and magic is come final bracketing time......you can get a great draw.... or as they say in soccer..... you can get put in the Group of Death.

 

[capnbillhitters]

Thanks so much for all the work and thought you put into this. I will be glad when next week's edition comes out and MS makes the cut. Once they come in I feel like this "objective" becomes more accurate.

New Trier vs Evanston is a big 8A cut line game this week. If NT picks up the victory, they push into 8A and Edwardsville and MS come back down to 7A with GW.

Speaking of GW, wouldn't a 2nd round game with GN be juicy? Same set up as last year only MC destroyed our sister school in round 1 and set up the best game ever played at Duchon.

 

[cornerrat]

All.... Concerning the 6A lower bracket. NLP has a pretty tough road in getting in and if Springfield doesn't upset Chatham this week making the playoffs will be unlikely. Speaking of Chatham they are in play for a spot as well in this lower bracket. I think Crete Monee will run out and finish the regular season at 7-2. Should end up with a better seed.

Of course it's all about weekly changes this early in the season. Ratsy

 

[UlbKA91]

I know you got Solorio in, but does conference mate Phillips get hit with violations soon under your scenario? Hard to believe they would lose a 2nd conference game plus their first round CPS playoff game (against a 3rd or 4th place from another CPS conference).

 

[Cpacmel11]

Catch 22 great stuff. Love this thread and projections.

A possible HF at LWE in the 2nd round! Or Geneseo at Morris!
Geneva at Batavia first round !

 

[swannee57]

What happened to Lemont in 6A?

 

[gdub86]

What happened to Lemont in 6A?

The enrollment cut line between 5a and 6a moved up quite a bit last week moving Lemont down to 5a for now.

 

[USD24]

If Lemont stays in 5A, they are the favorite.. 5A=Bad

 

[Catch--22]

Is the potential GW-GN matchup more of a curiousity among local fans, or is there actually some chirping between the fan bases? I know there are some split elementary schools and neighborhoods in Glendale Heights that send kids to both schools.

 

[capnbillhitters]

Is the potential GW-GN matchup more of a curiousity among local fans, or is there actually some chirping between the fan bases? I know there are some split elementary schools and neighborhoods in Glendale Heights that send kids to both schools.

There might have been some chirping back in the day, but in the 7 years I've been around, they haven't met in any meaningful sports competition so hard to gauge. There was very strong support in the crowd in 2012 as GW won their title and the GN fans swarmed in to replace for the 8A game. Lots of congrats and good lucks etc. were shared so it seemed like there was actually some love.

Of course that changes if they come into Duchon

 

[Voodoo Tatum 21]

There might have been some chirping back in the day, but in the 7 years I've been around, they haven't met in any meaningful sports competition so hard to gauge. There was very strong support in the crowd in 2012 as GW won their title and the GN fans swarmed in to replace for the 8A game. Lots of congrats and good lucks etc. were shared so it seemed like there was actually some love.

Of course that changes if they come into Duchon

That would be a FANTASTIC Playoff matchup! They should charge $15 a head for that one. The unstoppable MJD/Tricase versus the unmovable GBW Defense. IMHO - I think GBN would have to take a few shots down the field with Jace James to get some numbers out of the box for GBN to score enough to win. If they can't connect on at least one or put the fear of the Go routes on the table... I think the edge goes to GBW especially if it's at Duchon.

 

[capnbillhitters]

That would be a FANTASTIC Playoff matchup! They should charge $15 a head for that one. The unstoppable MJD/Tricase versus the unmovable GBW Defense. IMHO - I think GBN would have to take a few shots down the field with Jace James to get some numbers out of the box for GBN to score enough to win. If they can't connect on at least one or put the fear of the Go routes on the table... I think the edge goes to GBW especially if it's at Duchon.

I missed the full recap of the GN first couple of games but read somewhere that teams have beaten them over the top. How does that happen with those DBs?

GW will get a test from a real field stretcher this week. Bryant has a big boy arm, but he kind of reminds me of Cutler.

 

[MR. "T"]

If Lemont stays in 5A, they are the favorite.. 5A=Bad

Really bad! All of those south schools that complained have to really like this possible setup!

 

[MR. "T"]

You really think NAZ won't get in or did I miss something?

 

[USD24]

You really think NAZ won't get in or did I miss something?

A week ago, I would have said they are in for sure. After losing to a very average COM team 21-10, now I am not so sure. I think they lose this week and vs Marist. They will beat Marian, but I don't think the JCA or Viator games are guaranteed wins anymore. We shall see.

 

[Voodoo Tatum 21]

I missed the full recap of the GN first couple of games but read somewhere that teams have beaten them over the top. How does that happen with those DBs?

GW will get a test from a real field stretcher this week. Bryant has a big boy arm, but he kind of reminds me of Cutler.

Hi Capnbill

GoGBN2013 could probably detail it out better but basically:

Game 1 GBN blew out Naperville Central and had their starters sitting by mid 3rd quarter

Game 2: Were up at one point 21-7 over WV, but couldn't put them away. They played Man coverage to load the box. They got burned on one GO route and on another play they got caught badly out of position on a screen play. They looked to be worn down by mid 4th quarter.

Game 3: I did not see live or on film. They blew out WWS and were up 41-7 or something crazy like that. They had their starters benched by halftime is what I heard but had to get them stretched and Ready to re-enter as WWS did hit some passes and started to claw their way back in it. I don't think we can read too much into that.

Game 4: blew out Thorton I think.

Really only one game that they were susceptible to a deep ball or two and part of that was selling out to stop run and early season game getting used to playing a full 4 quarters.

 

[capnbillhitters]

Hi Capnbill

GoGBN2013 could probably detail it out better but basically:

Game 1 GBN blew out Naperville Central and had their starters sitting by mid 3rd quarter

Game 2: Were up at one point 21-7 over WV, but couldn't put them away. They played Man coverage to load the box. They got burned on one GO route and on another play they got caught badly out of position on a screen play. They looked to be worn down by mid 4th quarter.

Game 3: I did not see live or on film. They blew out WWS and were up 41-7 or something crazy like that. They had their starters benched by halftime is what I heard but had to get them stretched and Ready to re-enter as WWS did hit some passes and started to claw their way back in it. I don't think we can read too much into that.

Game 4: blew out Thorton I think.

Really only one game that they were susceptible to a deep ball or two and part of that was selling out to stop run and early season game getting used to playing a full 4 quarters.

Cool. So it was just one game. Thought someone made it seem like there had been breakdowns in multiple games. Glad to hear it was just a couple of plays. I still wouldn't want to face them in the 2nd round.