IMPACT GAMES THREAD

[bac2therac]

I suppose we can start this thread to follow not just RU opponents but games and results of other schools fighting to make it into the NCAA tournament. Tonight a light schedule, just 2.

Lafayette at Bucknell

Texas at Baylor: At 62 and 14-7, Texas really only has a win at Purdue as a highlight. They are in dire need of wins and their next 3 of Baylor, Tex Tech, Kansas will likely decide their fate of whether they fade out or stay in the game

 

[AreYouNUTS]

I suppose we can start this thread to follow not just RU opponents but games and results of other schools fighting to make it into the NCAA tournament. Tonight a light schedule, just 2.

Lafayette at Bucknell

Texas at Baylor: At 62 and 14-7, Texas really only has a win at Purdue as a highlight. Theare in dire need of wins and their next 3 of Baylor, Tex Tech, Kansas will likely decide their fate of whether they fade out or stay in the game

Texas goes down to Kansas 69-58.

Lafayette wins 65-62.

 

[Night Man]

Texas goes down to Kansas 69-58.

Lafayette wins 65-62.

Nice +20 or so against a common opponent

 

[bac2therac]

good to see Texas lose because they led at halftime and that was the kind of win that could put them back in the running for a spot

for tonight...

of course a RU win over Maryland might be worth 6-8 spots upward in the NET rankings while providing the needed valuable road win. A loss and the NET may drop a notch or two but not expecting too much negative movement.

UMass at Rhode Island.....UMass upset would be huge as we want them to creep into Q3 from Q4, thats why I thought scheduling them was a waste. Also URI is competing for an at large from the A10 so this would be a damaging loss for them.

Ohio State at Michigan....dont know who to root for here. OSU hasnt budged much and is 20 in the NET, I suppose Michigan keeps winning they can jump in the top 30 so its a Q1 opportunity when RU plays them later this month. Both have strong enough overall profiles that put them in the field barring a collapse.

Auburn at Arkansas.....Arky is in for now but a rather meh resume. This would be a giant win for them though. Go Auburn.

Tennessee at Alabama....two middling SEC schools that need to go on a run to make the NCAA tourney, losses piling up. Bama has a win over Auburn but little else and has a NET at 41 to Tenn 70. Root for the Vols here.

Va Tech at Ga Tech....Hokies have a win over Michigan State but not much else. Must win for him here and still have to go on a major run. Go Yellowjackets.

Penn State at Michigan State....Sparty isnt missing the tourney. Lions have won 4 in a row and in good position like RU but wouldnt hurt for them to lose this one.

Mississippi State at Kentucky.....Tigers at 14-7 and net of 37 are in the running but resume a bit light with wins of Fla/Ark. Really need this one. Go Blue.

Xavier at De Paul. Muskateer win over Nova got them a huge feather in their cap win putting them back in serious contention. De Paul has faded out of contention. Loss by Xavier tonight would be best.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech.....Tech has great metrics and will likely make tourney. Sooners very sketchy at this point and a rough schedule ahead really need this one. Go Red Raiders.

 

[bac2therac]

RU losing tonight 56-51, obviously not what we wanted

Penn State tops Mich State, Lions look pretty solidly in at this point

OSU got the win at Michigan. Wolverines still in but sort of sketchy now, they will need to beat RU at the RAC

Miss St fall at Kentucky so that was good, Auburn won at Arky in OT so another positive result

Rhody won a close one over U Mass

Tennessee over Bama so big help there

Ga Tech over Va Tech...just a hideous loss for the Hokies who are in some trouble now

Xavier over De Paul...Xav looking much better now but De Paul looks dead in the water at this point

Texas Tech over Oklahoma..another positive results here and Sooners in serious trouble

Overall I would say most games went in RU's favor given who was favorite

 

[bac2therac]

Pitt at Notre Dame....Panthers are not a threat for a NCAA bid but would like to keep them as a Q1 loss and winning as much as possible in the awful ACC

Iowa at Purdue...not sure on this one, RU beat Purdue and lost to Iowa but I would rather have Purdue out of the picture for a NCAA bid and I dont think they can make a run where they are good enough to become a Q1 win

Creighton at Providence...Friars have a bad overall record and a few really bad losses but some pretty good wins too, a longshot chance, this is a must win for them

Duquense at Saint Louis....Dukes have faded from contention, while the Bilikens do have a shot at an at large but need to keep winning alot because they lack quality wins. Better for Duquense to pull the upset

Clemson at Virginia....Cavs are bubblicious so they need to keep winning. Go Tigers.

Georgia at Florida....Gators look like they are in the field but that could change if they do not take care of business in games like this

So Carolina at Ole Miss...Gamecocks are in contention but need some more. Loss tonight would really hurt

George Washington at St Bonavenutre.....Hopefully the Bonnies can just keep winning and keep improving their NET ranking

Temple at Memphis....Tigers look in but would not hurt at all for them to start losing

Northern Iowa at Valparaiso......UNI is likely to get an at large bid if they do not win MVC, one of the few at large mid major contenders but a loss here makes its harder.

Seton Hall at Georgetown....Hoyas do not look like a legit threat to make a run at NCAA, need SHU to win as many games as they can

TCU at Oklahoma State.....Horned Frogs hanging around the bubble with work to do and a lost like this would hurt their profile.

NC State at Miami....Wolfpack hopes are starting to flicker, a loss at Miami would be devestating.

Wisconsin at Minnesota....RU has another crack at Wisky and I would like them to stay in top 30 as a Q1 win at the RAC. Minny could be in major trouble if they do not win this. Go Wisky

UNLV at Utah State....really the only at large contender from MWC, they couldnt beat SDSU either try and while they have wins over LSU and Florida they really need to almost win out to have a legit shot for an at large.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Thanks for this....

Just be to safe.......I want a weaker bubble.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

PITT at 20-13 10-10 1-1 would be very interesting.

I am not sure if I'd be rooting for PITT. Weigh the slight change in our NET rankings vs. the potential of a team near us on the bubble.

They are 14-8 5-6 right now. BART has PITT -0.8 WAB, They are an upset of FSU on the road to being on the bubble.

 

[bac2therac]

I am not...Pitt has a NET of 75. Their sos is 63 but their non conference schedule is 208.

Wins over RU and FSU but that is all. Limited opportunities in ACC for quality wins. They have a Q4 loss to Nichols State and a Q3 loss to Wake

10-10 in the acc does them little good this year

and only one top 50 net team left to play

they are not a legit player for the bubble until they get to 21-10

 

[fluoxetine]

Great posts bac.

Iowa at Purdue...not sure on this one, RU beat Purdue and lost to Iowa but I would rather have Purdue out of the picture for a NCAA bid and I dont think they can make a run where they are good enough to become a Q1 win

Definitely rooting for Iowa. A Purdue win helps our SOS, sure, but Purdue is like a 50/50 tournament team at this point and Iowa is a pure lock. Purdue losses are great right now.

Duquense at Saint Louis....Dukes have faded from contention, while the Bilikens do have a shot at an at large but need to keep winning alot because they lack quality wins. Better for Duquense to pull the upset

Think these two combined have zero shot at an at-large bid. This game is irrelevant in my opinion.

So Carolina at Ole Miss...Gamecocks are in contention but need some more. Loss tonight would really hurt

Also think South Carolina has basically no shot.

Temple at Memphis....Tigers look in but would not hurt at all for them to start losing

Actually think Memphis is OUT at the moment; a loss here would be nice.

Northern Iowa at Valparaiso......UNI is likely to get an at large bid if they do not win MVC, one of the few at large mid major contenders but a loss here makes its harder.

Same here; I think UNI is more likely to miss the tournament if they don't get the auto bid. Hopefully they lose tonight.

Seton Hall at Georgetown....Hoyas do not look like a legit threat to make a run at NCAA, need SHU to win as many games as they can

I don't think the Hoyas are out of it. A win tonight would put them squarely on the bubble. That said I think SHU winning as much as possible is still what we want.

TCU at Oklahoma State.....Horned Frogs hanging around the bubble with work to do and a lost like this would hurt their profile.

TCU has no shot.

NC State at Miami....Wolfpack hopes are starting to flicker, a loss at Miami would be devestating.

NC State's hopes are very slim. A loss tonight basically erases them.

PITT at 20-13 10-10 1-1 would be very interesting.

I am not sure if I'd be rooting for PITT. Weigh the slight change in our NET rankings vs. the potential of a team near us on the bubble.

They are 14-8 5-6 right now. BART has PITT -0.8 WAB, They are an upset of FSU on the road to being on the bubble.

I am not...Pitt has a NET of 75. Their sos is 63 but their non conference schedule is 208.

Wins over RU and FSU but that is all. Limited opportunities in ACC for quality wins. They have a Q4 loss to Nichols State and a Q3 loss to Wake

10-10 in the acc does them little good this year

and only one top 50 net team left to play

they are not a legit player for the bubble until they get to 21-10

I think bac is right here; Pitt has basically zero shot at an at-large bid. A win tonight takes them from none to slim. I think the SOS considerations are much greater here.

 

[bac2therac]

while these SEC, ACC, and Big 12 schools do not have terrible records, its that their metrics are all pretty bad right now. It used to be there were alot of opportunities in league to pick up quality wins, this year those wins are not quality. I have never seen the ACC be this bad. Good lord 15 schools and they are on track for 4 bids right now.

 

[fluoxetine]

They could even end up with three pretty easily.

 

[fluoxetine]

Teams to root against:
Indiana
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
Xavier
VCU
Virginia
USC
Purdue
Cincinnati
Northern Iowa
Utah State
Minnesota
Alabama
East Tennessee State

Others with an outside shot of either making it or missing it (generally root against unless there are strong SOS considerations)
Currently in - outside chance to fall out
Texas Tech
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Florida
Wichita State
Stanford
Michigan

Currently out - outside chance to get in
Providence
Tulsa
Richmond
Texas
Tennessee
Syracuse
Arizona State
Oklahoma
Memphis
Georgetown

 

[bac2therac]

They could even end up with three pretty easily.

Virginia will get in

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I guarantee there will be 4 teams in the ACC semifinals.....meaning some teams are going to get tournament wins.

 

[bac2therac]

I guarantee there will be 4 teams in the ACC semifinals.....meaning some teams are going to get tournament wins.

Exactly. Someone will go on a run and play well the rest of the year. Virginia got a quality win last week as well

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Exactly. Someone will go on a run and play well the rest of the year. Virginia got a quality win last week as well

Go Wake Forest....Danny Manning!

Do big men ever make good coaches?

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Without too much details here, I've said for weeks how strong the resumes in the B1G are and the landscape hasn't changed around the country.

In regards to Georgetown, McClung is out for SHU tonight, I don't think McKnight is playing for SHU. I can't see Georgetown winning tonight minus McClung....they had 4 departures of their top 10 players since the start of the season.

 

[fluoxetine]

Virginia will get in

I guarantee there will be 4 teams in the ACC semifinals.....meaning some teams are going to get tournament wins.

They definitely should get four in (and Virginia is the most likely fourth), but it doesn't take very much to happen for them to fall to three.

Everyone else in the ACC has very slim hopes and Virginia has plenty of work to do.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

4 teams are winning 20 from the ACC....20 doesn't guarantee anything, but.....

We know teams 1,2 and 3.

 

[fluoxetine]

Again, I think 4 in from the ACC is the default scenario.

But teams like Syracuse, NC State, or Notre Dame could easily fail to get in even with a good ACC Tourney performance. I don't think a 20-14 (11-9) Cuse team is getting in.

 

[bac2therac]

and I made a mistake, RU wants Purdue to beat Iowa, Purdue is in my field as of tonight, a win over Iowa just solidifies there spot and makes RU's win over them look even better. Plus another opportunity to beat them. We want Purdue to do as good as they can. We want Purdue in the field of 68.

 

[fluoxetine]

I don’t think that makes sense. Purdue is on the edge and them falling out is another spot open.

 

[fluoxetine]

On the other hand, T-Rank seems to agree with you.

Our current “bid %” is 92.0%. A Purdue win increases it to 92.3% and an Iowa win decreases it to 91.7%.

 

[kcg88]

Let's go Badgers!

 

[bac2therac]

I don’t think that makes sense. Purdue is on the edge and them falling out is another spot open.

because Purdue becomes another NCAA tourney school that RU has defeated...and if they win enough, they could possibly even get into the top 30 meaning it becomes a Quad 1 win

Iowa is making the tournament no question.

We are not competing against Purdue for a bid per se.

 

[bac2therac]

In the case of Wisky and Minny...while Minny can also become a ncaa team, right now they are really borderline, I dont think if they can make it. I would like Wisky to stay as a Quad 1 win and stay in the top 30.

 

[RUDieHard]

Well Purdue blasted Iowa 104-68

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

I guess it's best for Rutgers, if Minny tbeats Wisky tonight?

 

[bac2therac]

i would lean toward Wisky because it ensures they stay in top 30 which is quad 1

I dont think Minny is in trouble as far as ncaa even if they win tonight, they are in my last 4 right now, but that will change

 

[kcg88]

Wisconsin is looking brutal defensively.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Iowa is making the tournament no question.

is Iowa making the tournament?

 

[bac2therac]

is Iowa making the tournament?

easily

 

[bac2therac]

7-5 in Quadrant 1 games

3-1 in Quadrant 2 games

Maryland
Texas Tech (neutral)
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan

bad loss: at Nebraska

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

easily

 

[bac2therac]

they will beat Purdue at home. Their magic number is two and their next game is Nebby at home

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

7-5 in Quadrant 1 games

3-1 in Quadrant 2 games

Maryland
Texas Tech (neutral)
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan

bad loss: at Nebraska

No where is the 6 losses in their last 8 games. No in the Bacabase yet.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

they will beat Purdue at home. Their magic number is two and their next game is Nebby at home

Minnesota better not lose again then

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Have to really respect Montez Mathis D. Carr can play.

 

[bac2therac]

Pitt loses at Notre Dame...sigh they likely will wind up a Q2 loss not a Q1 loss