Is anyone worried about inflation under Trump?

[Boomboom521]

We know having little to no illegal immigrants will drive up prices on things like OJ and avocados. Add to it the threat of enormous tariffs on China (I don't think my kids own a toy not made in China). The aggressive program to bring back jobs is great, but doesn't that drive up costs for corporations in the long run? And having a protectionist President allows for companies to use the protectionist strategy as a block on cheaper competition, which allows them the ability to drive prices up.

Add to that interest rate hikes, and tax cuts. It seems like eventually we will face the buying power of the dollar basically wiping out a lot of the wealth President Trump plans to create (esp in the middle class).

Way off or what? I'm NOT an economist.

 

[WhiteTailEER]

When talking about these trade agreements, I'm not sure that people realize that the majority of what we get from other countries aren't whole products, but parts for products. It will hurt us domestically but also globally. There is a reason that trade agreements are made in the first place and it's because each side has something of mutual benefit for the other.

If we "tax the hell" out of imports, then everything becomes more expensive and we can no longer compete globally because everything we make will be much more expensive than products coming out of other countries. China doesn't pay those taxes. Mexico doesn't pay those taxes. We do.

 

[Airport]

When talking about these trade agreements, I'm not sure that people realize that the majority of what we get from other countries aren't whole products, but parts for products. It will hurt us domestically but also globally. There is a reason that trade agreements are made in the first place and it's because each side has something of mutual benefit for the other.

If we "tax the hell" out of imports, then everything becomes more expensive and we can no longer compete globally because everything we make will be much more expensive than products coming out of other countries. China doesn't pay those taxes. Mexico doesn't pay those taxes. We do.

Since it's been the Fed that has kept 0% rate on money, the raising of the interest rate now that Obama is gone , will impact us more in the short term. Negotiations are starting with a verbal assault. We will see how things play out. My opinion is that there will be concessions from both sides.

 

[WhiteTailEER]

Since it's been the Fed that has kept 0% rate on money, the raising of the interest rate now that Obama is gone , will impact us more in the short term. Negotiations are starting with a verbal assault. We will see how things play out. My opinion is that there will be concessions from both sides.

For all the talk about which president has been good or bad for the economy, it really shocks me (kinda, but not really) how infrequently the Fed is mentioned in those same conversations

 

[Original Mountaineer1]

We know having little to no illegal immigrants will drive up prices on things like OJ and avocados. Add to it the threat of enormous tariffs on China (I don't think my kids own a toy not made in China). The aggressive program to bring back jobs is great, but doesn't that drive up costs for corporations in the long run? And having a protectionist President allows for companies to use the protectionist strategy as a block on cheaper competition, which allows them the ability to drive prices up.

Add to that interest rate hikes, and tax cuts. It seems like eventually we will face the buying power of the dollar basically wiping out a lot of the wealth President Trump plans to create (esp in the middle class).

Way off or what? I'm NOT an economist.

I had this discussion yesterday at lunch with an economist that was saying the same thing. $4 dollar a pound apples was his example. Don't forget, American workers don't want the jobs that illegals often take as they are backbreaking, dirty, dangerous and low-paying. Not sure any American is going to work all day in the fields of California for $10 bucks an hour. Most Americans don't want to work in the poultry plants killing chickens all day for just above minimum wages. Illegals, defined by most republicans as Mexicans and Central American, don't generally take desirable or skilled jobs.

So to your point, he was predicting 1-3 years of growth and prosperity followed by significant inflation, decreased US production, and likely recession. I can't agree or disagree but those were his thoughts.

 

[Boomboom521]

I had this discussion yesterday at lunch with an economist that was saying the same thing. $4 dollar a pound apples was his example. Don't forget, American workers don't want the jobs that illegals often take as they are backbreaking, dirty, dangerous and low-paying. Not sure any American is going to work all day in the fields of California for $10 bucks an hour. Most Americans don't want to work in the poultry plants killing chickens all day for just above minimum wages. Illegals, defined by most republicans as Mexicans and Central American, don't generally take desirable or skilled jobs.

So to your point, he was predicting 1-3 years of growth and prosperity followed by significant inflation, decreased US production, and likely recession. I can't agree or disagree but those were his thoughts.

I'm thinking the same thing. I think he uses his position to negotiate a longer period maybe 5-6 years, but the crash will be ridiculous (even bigger than 2007). Of course, just like the stock market, the big money players like the boom - bust....and the rich get richer.

 

[WhiteTailEER]

I had this discussion yesterday at lunch with an economist that was saying the same thing. $4 dollar a pound apples was his example. Don't forget, American workers don't want the jobs that illegals often take as they are backbreaking, dirty, dangerous and low-paying. Not sure any American is going to work all day in the fields of California for $10 bucks an hour. Most Americans don't want to work in the poultry plants killing chickens all day for just above minimum wages. Illegals, defined by most republicans as Mexicans and Central American, don't generally take desirable or skilled jobs.

So to your point, he was predicting 1-3 years of growth and prosperity followed by significant inflation, decreased US production, and likely recession. I can't agree or disagree but those were his thoughts.

That's what I think a lot of people miss in this argument. Not only are the jobs the illegals take low-paying and everything else, but they are also largely seasonal. They don't mind going to Romney, WV for the apple harvest, and then to FL for the Orange harvest and then back up to MD to shuck oysters for a few months. Most Americans simply won't live like that.

Hell, I have a friend with a few franchise restaurants (similar to subway) and he has a hard time filling positions there. He can't even get people to interview for the job, and then sometimes they get the job and just never show up. Can you imagine the difficulty if the work was actually hard?

Now the economic cycle pointed out by your economist is actually pretty normal. And recessions aren't necessarily all bad, just part of the cycle. It's a matter of how bad the recession becomes though.

 

[WVPATX]

I'm thinking the same thing. I think he uses his position to negotiate a longer period maybe 5-6 years, but the crash will be ridiculous (even bigger than 2007). Of course, just like the stock market, the big money players like the boom - bust....and the rich get richer.

Boom, you libs are getting way ahead of yourselves. Way ahead. What did Trump say just yesterday? He said the criminal illegals will be deported as quickly as possible. Are you against that? That is roughly 2,000,000.

As for the non-criminal illegals, my guess is that Trump lets them and their families stay under certain conditions. They pay a fine, speak English, and have a job.

You guys had no problem with the Fed printing money like we have never seen before, the Fed keeping a zero interest rate policy for longer than ever before, all very inflationary.

Now, you decide to freak out without any facts. Interesting.

 

[WVPATX]

I had this discussion yesterday at lunch with an economist that was saying the same thing. $4 dollar a pound apples was his example. Don't forget, American workers don't want the jobs that illegals often take as they are backbreaking, dirty, dangerous and low-paying. Not sure any American is going to work all day in the fields of California for $10 bucks an hour. Most Americans don't want to work in the poultry plants killing chickens all day for just above minimum wages. Illegals, defined by most republicans as Mexicans and Central American, don't generally take desirable or skilled jobs.

So to your point, he was predicting 1-3 years of growth and prosperity followed by significant inflation, decreased US production, and likely recession. I can't agree or disagree but those were his thoughts.

With all due respect, what assumptions did your economist friend make? He has no idea what is going to happen to our current illegal immigrants in the labor force. He has no idea what is going to happen to our trade agreements. He is making huge assumptions without supporting facts.

Normally, economists develop scenarios under multiple conditions. It sounds like your friend is making only one set of assumptions.

I recently went to two fairly private meetings with lead economists from both Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. They discussed a number of scenarios and the outcomes varied greatly. The assumptions revolved around potential tax policy, potential trade policy, potential interest rates, potential spending amounts, etc.

We are much, much too early to be making predictions like your friend made without more real knowledge of actual policy.

 

[Boomboom521]

Boom, you libs are getting way ahead of yourselves. Way ahead. What did Trump say just yesterday? He said the criminal illegals will be deported as quickly as possible. Are you against that? That is roughly 2,000,000.

As for the non-criminal illegals, my guess is that Trump lets them and their families stay under certain conditions. They pay a fine, speak English, and have a job.

You guys had no problem with the Fed printing money like we have never seen before, the Fed keeping a zero interest rate policy for longer than ever before, all very inflationary.

Now, you decide to freak out without any facts. Interesting.

Are you saying I have no problem with the things you mentioned? I don't think I've ever said anything positive or negative about any of them.

For the record, I'm freaked by currency that is backed by debt. But I would be even more freaked by a system that depended on my knowledge of economic systems.

I'm just posing a question about the policies Trump plans to implement and some of the concerns that arise when I consider their impact.

 

[WVPATX]

Are you saying I have no problem with the things you mentioned? I don't think I've ever said anything positive or negative about any of them.

For the record, I'm freaked by currency that is backed by debt. But I would be even more freaked by a system that depended on my knowledge of economic systems.

I'm just posing a question about the policies Trump plans to implement and some of the concerns that arise when I consider their impact.

Boom, I asked you a question. Are you opposed to Trump's planned deportation of criminal illegal aliens which number around 2,000,000?

And we don't know yet what Trump's plans are for immigration reform. We know what he said during the campaign but he has already changed his position (on the Dreamers, for example). We do know the wall is going up. We do know additional border security measure are being taken (more agents, more surveillance, etc.). We don't know yet what will happen to the non-criminal illegal aliens. Wait for his policies to be announced. Then you can either freak or remain calm.

 

[Boomboom521]

Boom, I asked you a question. Are you opposed to Trump's planned deportation of criminal illegal aliens which number around 2,000,000?

And we don't know yet what Trump's plans are for immigration reform. We know what he said during the campaign but he has already changed his position (on the Dreamers, for example). We do know the wall is going up. We do know additional border security measure are being taken (more agents, more surveillance, etc.). We don't know yet what will happen to the non-criminal illegal aliens. Wait for his policies to be announced. Then you can either freak or remain calm.

I find it amazing that CRIMINAL illegals (meaning illegal immigrants that break the law in our country - other than being here illegally?) are not deported once arrested. They are serving time in our prison system? So, I'm not really sure what he is referencing. Are ALL illegal immigrants criminal in the sense that they are breaking the law by living here?

 

[roadtrasheer]

Boomboom what would happen if the legal Americans on welfare was told pick the apples or go hungry? I have family that will say they won't get out of bed unless they make a certain amount, but don't mind cashing in on welfare.

 

[WVPATX]

I find it amazing that CRIMINAL illegals (meaning illegal immigrants that break the law in our country - other than being here illegally?) are not deported once arrested. They are serving time in our prison system? So, I'm not really sure what he is referencing. Are ALL illegal immigrants criminal in the sense that they are breaking the law by living here?

Boom, we have many illegal alien felons walking our streets. They are not deported. The estimated number is around 2,000,000. We have sanctuary cities telling the Fed's to F off when they ask the cities to detain criminals so that the Feds can either jail them or prosecute them. No, they are not deported once arrested.

 

[auggiewv]

anything that Trump does, will beat the hell out of 8 years of Obama..

 

[Mntneer]

That's what I think a lot of people miss in this argument. Not only are the jobs the illegals take low-paying and everything else, but they are also largely seasonal. They don't mind going to Romney, WV for the apple harvest, and then to FL for the Orange harvest and then back up to MD to shuck oysters for a few months. Most Americans simply won't live like that.

Hell, I have a friend with a few franchise restaurants (similar to subway) and he has a hard time filling positions there. He can't even get people to interview for the job, and then sometimes they get the job and just never show up. Can you imagine the difficulty if the work was actually hard?

Now the economic cycle pointed out by your economist is actually pretty normal. And recessions aren't necessarily all bad, just part of the cycle. It's a matter of how bad the recession becomes though.

I'm fine with immigrant labor, as long as they are here legally. The illegal is all too come on those transient labor roles you describe. Let's find a way to make them legal.