My theory for what it's worth, goes like this:
March 2013: Collins hired, immediately goes about recruiting Vic Law. Nets his first big class on the pitch of "you'll be the first to make the tourney, pound the rock, etc"
2013-14: Takes a roster of Carmody players after re-recruiting Crawford to stay, gets them to play hard-nosed defense in a strong Big Ten despite being utterly unable to shoot, posts best NU defense since 2001-02 season, beats Frank Kaminsky-led Final Four-bound Badgers at the Kohl Center for first win in the building.
2014-17: Using his first recruiting class as the foundation of the team, improves each season despite the conference being weaker than the last years of Carmody and some bad injury luck (Law 2016, Falzon 2017, Ivanauskas 2017-18) reaches the pinnacle by making first NCAA tourney in school history.
2017-18: Signs 2nd big recruiting class coming off making the tourney headlined by 4-stars Nance and Kopp. Collins thinks he can run it back and relax a bit knowing what he has on his team, losing just two players, albeit the best 3-point shooter and the most underrated defender. McIntosh gets injured during final non-conference game, never the same after that. Playing at Allstate, season begins with warning signs that there might be issues, eventually turns into a disaster.
2018-22: Restarts with class of Kopp, Nance, Young, Greer in a revitalized Big Ten conference. Signs another 4-star in Robbie Beran along with some guy named Daniel Buie. Departs from past approach and tries to go up-tempo with relatively disastrous results. Suffers 10+ game losing streaks in each of 2018-19, 19-20 and 20-21 seasons. Begins to shift recruiting philosophy, whether because his hand is forced by all the losing or he sees that the parade of 4-star players isn't working out. Ty Berry is last 4-star signed right before beginning of 2019-20 season. Transfer portal comes into play as well, transfers in aren't great, Kopp, Nance and Young eventually transfer out.
2022-23: Hires the

following hotly debated public ultimatum delivered by the AD. Emergence of Nicholson as a defensive force after years of being on the bench, of Audige into his final form of terrifying defender with bouts of amazing offense mixed with head-scratching moments, Barnhizer as valuable depth piece, and Martinelli seizing the opportunity afforded by Roper's injury. Buie matures into an all-conference player, team embraces gritty, scrappy, mentally tough mindset. Team defense skyrockets up, led by emphasis on forcing turnovers. Returns to slower tempo of earlier years. Reaches 2nd NCAA tourney.