Is our ceiling 7-5 for this season and would you be happy with that?

18IsTheMan

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I'd agree with your analysis outside of Kentucky and Missouri.

Missouri had a bunch of close wins last year and lost their All American running back. I would bet on them taking a step-back. How much of a step-back is the question, but I'd be shocked if they pushed 10 wins again. Now how we stack up against them is a very different conversation.

I still think UK is a toss-up. We've beaten them back to back years now, and our programs are fairly even at this point.

I see UK as a neutral site toss-up. Being a home game for them, I would give them a slight edge. I'd give us a 45% chance of winning this one. I believe it would be viewed as a minor upset by most. Nothing that would shock anyone.

As far as Mizzou, my official position on them is: I'll believe we can beat them when we beat them. They've got a 5-peat going on us right now.
 
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Gradstudent

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That's not happening.

Yeah, it was not a prediction, just more in the context of trying to understand the definition of a "Good Season", on one thread a poster says we may have one of our worst seasons and only win 2 games, and on another thread same poster says 7 wins is not a good season,

If I think we may win 2 games, and we end of winning 7 games, then yes, I think that would a good season.

And as a long time fan, I know 7-5 for a 4th year coach is actually pretty good, by my definition based on what the coaches usually do here in there 4th year,

It all relative, I know Clemson fans who would be upset over a 7 win season, so I get that perspective to.
 
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USCEE82

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Ceiling is 5 wins. All of our opponents will overachieve and we will underachieve. It's the Gamecock way.
 

Mountain guy

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Yes, those are the games to which I'm referring.

In all likelihood, a couple of those teams do not live up to expectations.

I would rank those 8 in order of most likely for us to win to least likely for us to win:

1. UK: a lot depends on how Vandagriff does there. If he lives up to his recruiting potential now that he's a starter, they likely win easily.
2. A&M: No idea how they'll look in Year 1 under the new guy. Maybe they take a bit of a dip.
3. LSU/Clemson: LSU lost a good bit and Clemson is depending on Klubnik taking a big step forward.
4. Missouri: No real apparent weaknesses that would us an advantage over last year's game.
5. Ole Miss: On paper, they drastically improved via the portal. Presumed playoff team.
6. OU/Bama: On the road. Not happening.


In terms of winnability, I'd say there's a pretty decent gap between UK and LSU and then a large gap between LSU/Clemson and Mizzou. Winning against UK would be a mild upset. Winning over A&M, LSU or Clemson would be moderate upsets. Any of the others would be huge upsets.

As it stands right now and in my opinion.
I think moderate upsets is an understatement with those teams, especially Clemson on the road.
 

KingWard

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I think context is important here on what those meaningful games actually are...

I assume you're saying meaningful games are Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri, and Clemson.

3 of 8 are in ESPN's way-too-early Top 25's top ten.

6 of 8 are in ESPN's way-too-early Top 25's top twenty.

8 of 8 are ranked in ESPN's way-too-early Top 25.


Obviously 2-6 or 3-5 in meaningful games isn't ideal, but if we can beat 3 ranked teams that's got to be seen as growth in the program. It's just a brutal schedule, especially if these teams live up to expectations.
It's a brutal schedule because we lack brutality. I'd say to anyone, take 7-5 any way you can get it and go quietly. Don't look it in the mouth.
 
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1vagamecock

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I feel 7 is probably the ceiling for us this year, but more likely it will be 5.
7 wins would mean we have to knock of Clemson or Ole Miss, not sure we can do that.
 
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KingWard

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I'd agree with your analysis outside of Kentucky and Missouri.

Missouri had a bunch of close wins last year and lost their All American running back. I would bet on them taking a step-back. How much of a step-back is the question, but I'd be shocked if they pushed 10 wins again. Now how we stack up against them is a very different conversation.

I still think UK is a toss-up. We've beaten them back to back years now, and our programs are fairly even at this point.
Missouri might not be as good at running back, but that coach up there has it together. All we'll see is their tail ends.
 

bayrooster

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Missouri might not be as good at running back, but that coach up there has it together. All we'll see is their tail ends.
Drinkwitz will drink our milkshake.
 
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gamecock stock

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This will be Beamer's 4th season. If we can't win 7 games in Year 4, wth has Beamer been doing all that time? Some people are playing right into Beamer's hands giving him a crutch. Fans must demand RESULTS. We play Ole Miss and Mizzou at home. We also play TAM, who has a new Head Coach, at home. We have beaten Kentucky the past 2 years. If we can't go .500 in the SEC in Year 4, then Year 5 should be "make or break" for Beamer. We are not playing our entire SEC schedule in one week. We are playing them over the course of 8 weeks...one game at a time. If I'm the only one demanding that, I'm fine being the only one on that island. That is my true expectation from Beamer. It's nothing personal. It's business.
 
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KingWard

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This will be Beamer's 4th season. If we can't win 7 games in Year 4, wth has Beamer been doing all that time? Some people are playing right into Beamer's hands giving him a crutch. Fans must demand RESULTS. We play Ole Miss and Mizzou at home. We also play TAM, who has a new Head Coach, at home. We have beaten Kentucky the past 2 years. If we can't go .500 in the SEC in Year 4, then Year 5 should be "make or break" for Beamer. We are not playing our entire SEC schedule in one week. We are playing them over the course of 8 weeks...one game at a time. If I'm the only one demanding that, I'm fine being the only one on that island. That is my true expectation from Beamer. It's nothing personal. It's business.
Highly incisive.
 
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Big JC

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This will be Beamer's 4th season. If we can't win 7 games in Year 4, wth has Beamer been doing all that time? Some people are playing right into Beamer's hands giving him a crutch. Fans must demand RESULTS. We play Ole Miss and Mizzou at home. We also play TAM, who has a new Head Coach, at home. We have beaten Kentucky the past 2 years. If we can't go .500 in the SEC in Year 4, then Year 5 should be "make or break" for Beamer. We are not playing our entire SEC schedule in one week. We are playing them over the course of 8 weeks...one game at a time. If I'm the only one demanding that, I'm fine being the only one on that island. That is my true expectation from Beamer. It's nothing personal. It's business.
Beamer is a cheerleader, appears to be a nice guy, talks a good game and, most importantly, "he wants to be here". Those seem to be the most important qualifications for a gamecock football coach for quite a share of the fan base. Actually winning football games comes in a distant fifth on the list of job requirements.

We were told he was a great recruiter. Recruiting hasn't been any better than under any previous coach.

We were told he was going to be good because he was Frank Beamer's son. I never really bought into that. If being the son of a good coach was a great trait and made someone a good coach, we could have hired Derek Dooley.

The reality is; without the two wins over UT and Clemson in 2022, Beamer would have probably been fired after this past season. We may end up paying for those two wins for three more years.
 
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18IsTheMan

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Beamer is a cheerleader, appears to be a nice guy, talks a good game and, most importantly, "he wants to be here". Those seem to be the most important qualifications for a gamecock football coach for quite a share of the fan base. Actually winning football games comes in a distant fifth on the list of job requirements.

We were told he was a great recruiter. Recruiting hasn't been any better than under any previous coach.

We were told he was going to be good because he was Frank Beamer's son. I never really bought into that. If being the son of a good coach was a great trait and made someone a good coach, we could have hired Derek Dooley.

The reality is; without the two wins over UT and Clemson in 2022, Beamer would have probably been fired after this past season. We may end up paying for those two wins for three more years.
If he doesn't make it, he will be the nicest coach we've fired.

FWIW, I argued in another thread we should just bit the bullet and give him a full 10 years.
 

Big JC

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If he doesn't make it, he will be the nicest coach we've fired.

FWIW, I argued in another thread we should just bit the bullet and give him a full 10 years.
Yeah, I've made the point several times we should simply accept that we are a barely over .500 program and focus on enjoying the tailgating and social aspect of the game day and stop worrying about winning. Lose the game but win the party.
 
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Prestonyte

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This will be Beamer's 4th season. If we can't win 7 games in Year 4, wth has Beamer been doing all that time? Some people are playing right into Beamer's hands giving him a crutch. Fans must demand RESULTS. We play Ole Miss and Mizzou at home. We also play TAM, who has a new Head Coach, at home. We have beaten Kentucky the past 2 years. If we can't go .500 in the SEC in Year 4, then Year 5 should be "make or break" for Beamer. We are not playing our entire SEC schedule in one week. We are playing them over the course of 8 weeks...one game at a time. If I'm the only one demanding that, I'm fine being the only one on that island. That is my true expectation from Beamer. It's nothing personal. It's business.
RT has patience and is not one to make quick, decisive moves based on how he is allowing his once proud baseball program to flounder - Kingston is in his 7th year and we are happy with ''playing in a regional'', Omaha be damned. If Tanner is looking to put a magnifying glass on coaching, this is a good place to start.
Beamer has the same expectations we do as fans and is putting pieces in place to meet expectations and we all hope that happens sooner rather than later. Looking forward to this season to see how it plays out but haven't given up on Beamer.
 

18IsTheMan

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Yeah, I've made the point several times we should simply accept that we are a barely over .500 program and focus on enjoying the tailgating and social aspect of the game day and stop worrying about winning. Lose the game but win the party.
Well, my take...and I know it's a stretch...is: what do we have to lose by giving him 10 full seasons? We've been playing football for like 130 years. Our fortunes have never really changed that from one coach to the next. Spurrier was an outlier in terms of length of coaching tenure here. We otherwise have pretty much had a 4-6 year rotating door.

As I see it, if we give Beamer 10 years, the worst case scenario is he doesn't work out and we're really in no different position than we ever have been. Best case scenario, something eventually clicks and he takes off. Our rotating door approach has never worked, so just try something different.

Again, we've been at it for 130 years. What real difference would 5 more years really make in the big picture? If we keep Beamer for 10 years and he doesn't work out, we'll be looking for coach after his 10th season. If we can Beamer after 5 seasons, odds are, we'll be looking for another coach in another 4-6 years. so we'd still be looking for a coach at the same time. Maybe, though, maybe, there's something to longevity that would make things click.
 
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will110

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Beamer is a cheerleader, appears to be a nice guy, talks a good game and, most importantly, "he wants to be here". Those seem to be the most important qualifications for a gamecock football coach for quite a share of the fan base. Actually winning football games comes in a distant fifth on the list of job requirements.

We were told he was a great recruiter. Recruiting hasn't been any better than under any previous coach.

We were told he was going to be good because he was Frank Beamer's son. I never really bought into that. If being the son of a good coach was a great trait and made someone a good coach, we could have hired Derek Dooley.

The reality is; without the two wins over UT and Clemson in 2022, Beamer would have probably been fired after this past season. We may end up paying for those two wins for three more years.
I don't think Beamer gets 3 more years unless things turn around. There's got to be significant progress made this year from a competitive standpoint to give reason for optimism in 2025. Win 6 games in 2024 while being competitive in the losses seems like a reasonable building season while breaking in a new starting quarterback. If this year is a disaster from a record standpoint, it's going to be hard to justify giving him 2025.
 
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Gamecock Jacque

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Yeah, I've made the point several times we should simply accept that we are a barely over .500 program and focus on enjoying the tailgating and social aspect of the game day and stop worrying about winning. Lose the game but win the party.
That's because, from top to bottom, USC's administration is not serious about winning football games.
 

YorkDev

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I was cautiously optimistic until I read some of these posts. Damn. It is all speculation at this point. We only know the dates. All teams HOPE what they project on the field actually happens (See Juice). I quit predicting a few years ago. Just let me know Saturday who is going in and that is who I will pull for. As far a Shane and this season, I want to see how we COMPETE each game. That will tell us more than anything who we have as a team and staff.
 
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YorkDev

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I don't think Beamer gets 3 more years unless things turn around. There's got to be significant progress made this year from a competitive standpoint to give reason for optimism in 2025. Win 6 games in 2024 while being competitive in the losses seems like a reasonable building season while breaking in a new starting quarterback. If this year is a disaster from a record standpoint, it's going to be hard to justify giving him 2025.
will110 we were typing at the same time. You read my mind a little! Compete is the operative word.
 
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18IsTheMan

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I was cautiously optimistic until I read some of these posts. Damn. It is all speculation at this point. We only know the dates. All teams HOPE what they project on the field actually happens (See Juice). I quit predicting a few years ago. Just let me know Saturday who is going in and that is who I will pull for. As far a Shane and this season, I want to see how we COMPETE each game. That will tell us more than anything who we have as a team and staff.

For sure, it is daunting on paper. But for our 8 games that matter, there will likely be a couple who don't live up to expectations. Can we pick off those 2 games? If so, with this schedule, 6 wins is enough to limp out of the season with a shred of optimism.
 
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Rodemi

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Sean Elliott will make difference up front. 6 wins would be expected.
 

Gamecock Jacque

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I see this sentiment often. What should USC's administration do to be serious about winning games?
I would start with the AD position but they won't because they're not serious about winning. The irony is that they're serious about money and football is the money king.
 

Mountain guy

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For sure, it is daunting on paper. But for our 8 games that matter, there will likely be a couple who don't live up to expectations. Can we pick off those 2 games? If so, with this schedule, 6 wins is enough to limp out of the season with a shred of optimism.
I think 6 should be the minimum expectation. We have 4 gimmes, surely (I know, don't call me surely) we can pick up at least 2 out of the remaining 8, right?
 

will110

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I would start with the AD position but they won't because they're not serious about winning. The irony is that they're serious about money and football is the money king.
Be more specific. Make a list of things you think need to be done to make the university serious about winning. Just changing the AD doesn't indicate USC is serious about winning.
 

18IsTheMan

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Be more specific. Make a list of things you think need to be done to make the university serious about winning. Just changing the AD doesn't indicate USC is serious about winning.

Reality is, we simply lack the resources. You either have to have the resources or get lucky and catch lightning in a bottle with a coach.
 

Gamecock Jacque

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Be more specific. Make a list of things you think need to be done to make the university serious about winning. Just changing the AD doesn't indicate USC is serious about winning.
What is wrong with you? 🙂
That would be the first sign that they're serious about winning. No serious admin would have hired this AD or this coach.
 

KingWard

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If he doesn't make it, he will be the nicest coach we've fired.

FWIW, I argued in another thread we should just bit the bullet and give him a full 10 years.
Well, Richard Bell and Sparky were both nice guys. We have history in firing all types.
 

will110

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What is wrong with you? 🙂
That would be the first sign that they're serious about winning. No serious admin would have hired this AD or this coach.
My point being, like @Big JC mentioned, Carolina football has never been good. We've got a 120 year history of mediocrity. It didn't start with Ray Tanner or Shane Beamer, so the problem has to be bigger than them.
 

bayrooster

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My point being, like @Big JC mentioned, Carolina football has never been good. We've got a 120 year history of mediocrity. It didn't start with Ray Tanner or Shane Beamer, so the problem has to be bigger than them.
And this is the comfort zone for the majority of our oldest fans. I think during Spurrier's best 4 years many fans were both excited and afraid of a future where we expected to be in the running for the SEC championship game every season. The historical status quo is a warm security blanket -- low expectations is also a lot easier on the blood pressure until you have to deal with Clemson and Georgia fans after a loss.
 

Big JC

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And this is the comfort zone for the majority of our oldest fans. I think during Spurrier's best 4 years many fans were both excited and afraid of a future where we expected to be in the running for the SEC championship game every season. The historical status quo is a warm security blanket -- low expectations is also a lot easier on the blood pressure until you have to deal with Clemson and Georgia fans after a loss.
To be fair, we bring a lot of the vitriol and mockery from Clemson and UGA fans on ourselves. Every single year we tell their fans and anyone who will listen that "this year is going to be special" and "Clemson/UGA lost __________ and ___________ from last year's team so a win over them is a lock this year", "this year we make a run", etc., etc.. Then, we go 6-6, go to a crap bowl game, lose and act like things are looking up for next season.

We do this every single year.
 

GCJerryUSC

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It's discouraging reading this thread but am a longtime GC fan and well, it's realistic. I naively thought that Spurrier's 11-2 seasons were gonna lead to a semi-Bama pgm.

At least we can kinda look forward to MBB now.
 

Gamecock Jacque

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My point being, like @Big JC mentioned, Carolina football has never been good. We've got a 120 year history of mediocrity. It didn't start with Ray Tanner or Shane Beamer, so the problem has to be bigger than them.
If Carolina football had never been good I doubt that I would have become a fan. I got here just when Morrison was hired and gradually became a fan during his tenure. I was not a fan when I got here. I grew up in Texas and Alabama and was a Bama fan for 14 years. I was 24 when I moved here. Dad is the Carolina grad and his season tickets sucked me in. That and Morrison.
 

gamecock stock

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Beamer is a cheerleader, appears to be a nice guy, talks a good game and, most importantly, "he wants to be here". Those seem to be the most important qualifications for a gamecock football coach for quite a share of the fan base. Actually winning football games comes in a distant fifth on the list of job requirements.

We were told he was a great recruiter. Recruiting hasn't been any better than under any previous coach.

We were told he was going to be good because he was Frank Beamer's son. I never really bought into that. If being the son of a good coach was a great trait and made someone a good coach, we could have hired Derek Dooley.

The reality is; without the two wins over UT and Clemson in 2022, Beamer would have probably been fired after this past season. We may end up paying for those two wins for three more years.
I always laughed when Beamer supporters said we should hire Beamer because "he wants to be here". Did they not realize that any person would crawl naked from Norman, Oklahoma to Columbia, South Carolina for a job with a starting salary @$2.5 million annually? What a joke of a reason to hire someone.

Spot on about his recruiting not being any better than previous coaches.....and maybe worse.

The list of sons of legendary coaches failing is long: Derek Dooley (Vince), Tommy Bowden (Bobby), Terry Bowden (Bobby), Mike Shula (Don), Rex Ryan (Buddy), Wade Phillips (Bum), Jim Mora (Jim). Did Shane's supporters not do any research on how sons of legendary Head Coaches have done? smh.

Three more years? I believe 2025 will be make or break for Beamer.

By the way, there's a controversy in Hollywood that underserving sons and daughters of legendary actors and actresses getting roles over better actors and actresses simply because of who their mother or father is. Those undeserving actors and actresses are referred to as "Nepo Babies". Shane is a "Nepo Baby".

To Shane's credit, I don't believe we have ever had a Head Coach who claps better and longer than Shane.
 

gamecock stock

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RT has patience and is not one to make quick, decisive moves based on how he is allowing his once proud baseball program to flounder - Kingston is in his 7th year and we are happy with ''playing in a regional'', Omaha be damned. If Tanner is looking to put a magnifying glass on coaching, this is a good place to start.
Beamer has the same expectations we do as fans and is putting pieces in place to meet expectations and we all hope that happens sooner rather than later. Looking forward to this season to see how it plays out but haven't given up on Beamer.
Maybe. But he fired Muschamp in his 5th season.