Is the ESPN FPI some sort of joke?

[Thus Spake Mainer]

Pitt #6? Sparty #15?

2025 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2025 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

 

[retrospm]

Well they do have Iowa at 25. I think that's a little high, but whatever.

 

[SaquonCappelletti]

I've always interpreted "power ratings" as being helpful for betting. But I don't understand what calculations make Pitt the No. 6 team? Would the Panthers really be favored at a neutral field over Auburn, Texas A&M, Michigan State, Penn State, Oregon, etc.?

 

[SaquonCappelletti]

I think it's fun to sort this table by "playoff %"

1. Georgia, 93.2
2. Alabama, 68.5
3. Oklahoma, 61.9
4. Cincinnati, 56.2
5. Ohio State, 52.6
6. Michigan, 20.5
7. Notre Dame, 17.2
8. Michigan State, 15.9
9. Oklahoma State, 3.5
10. Pitt, 2.8
11. Oregon, 2.7
12. Baylor, 1.7
13. Wake Forest, 1.5

What stands out to me:

• Notre Dame has no chance at the playoff, in my opinion. They are directly tied to Cincinnati. If Cincinnati wins out, Cincinnati is still a toss-up for the Final Four so Notre Dame would have no shot. And if Cincinnati loses a game, that'll knock Cincinnati out but Notre Dame should not move up because Cincinnati would still have the head-to-head win.
• Oregon should be much higher than 11th. The Ducks, simply put, have the best win in all of college football this year. And they only have one loss with a clear path to a conference title.
• Wake Forest should also be much higher than 13th. If they run the table, which is a big ask with closing games against UNC, NC State, Clemson, BC and an ACC title game, they'd be a 13-0 Power Five champ. You cannot leave them out, if they make it through the gauntlet.

 

[Woodpecker]

Florida (4-4) at 8? Texas (4-4) at 11?