I've been saying this for a while. Teams making ridiculous shots, teams shooting way above the norm for the season (Penn State and Providence come to mind) -- and how many times over the years have we seen role players have career games against us when we shut the opposing star down? Some of it (probably a lot of it?) comes down to "jNW mentality" and other teams playing with confidence against us, but it's tough to deny we've had terrible luck. There's little difference between many of our performances. It's why I ignore chicken little posts -- 99% of us (myself include) on here have zero idea what we're talking about.
There are games decided by luck. No doubt about it. But o bet 50%+ of games that might appear as “luck” have other underlying explanation.
For example:
-Providence-we decided to go with a zone because their 3 point shooting was poor. Have you played pickup games where there are guys that are not good shooters and, because it’s a pickup game, have like 5 seconds to put up a 3? And magically you see multiple 3’s happening in a pickup game, of guys with bellies who can’t shoot? Well, play a closed zone worried about Nate Watson and chances are you give a fraction of a second more to those bad 3 pt shooters. Who are now good shooters. It’s a miracle.
-Guys having career games. Take the MD game for example. Ayala scored 26 and I think that was a career high. He averaged 15 last year and was averaging 15 at the time of the game. The thing about a player who averages 15, a very respectable average, is that said average is not higher because pretty much every opposing coach focuses on limiting that player. Otherwise, treating the player as a “normal” dude he’d average 20+. Against us he went off in the first half, benefiting from the substitution merry go round we do. Once Audige got on him, he was quiet. Second half he’s still quiet until Greer is on him. He scores two 3 pointers. Audige comes back to guard him and quickly gets to 4 fouls. So one can say sometimes there are flows in the game, decided by the coach, that might help career nights.
