It isn’t about being a big or apples and oranges or who gets paid more…..Teams, including Rutgers, will have to pay a PREMIUM for Francis based upon his performance, scoring talents and shooting ability he has displayed in the Big 10 conference if they want Francis playing for them next year. Teams will have to pay up and they will line up for someone like him to be added to the roster. He is Pike’s first priority this offseason.
Keepers for next year
- Thread starter RUdepressed
- Start date
Francis is 13th in the Big 10 in scoring and tops the league at 91% ft...he is going to be one of the coveted prizes out there
"PSSST..hey Tariq. If you don't take our offer we're gonna fire one of our asst. coaches. I think you know him well "...just saying lol.
I kid, I kid.
Ha ha. I do think we have some selling points beyond this. For all the crapping on our offensive system, the style is built by design for a player like TF. It’s true - in the long run, it is certainly fair to question the approach but on a one year fix it horizon, there are possibilities for significant strides within Pike’s legacy system. He didn’t reinstate his defensive focus this year but in many ways that just wasn’t feasible based on the starting point last off season on offense. If he keeps Tariq, he will have a “real” opportunity this time. He’d need some things to shake out right for us, but it won’t be like last year where we not only needed Tariq to come in and be the unicorn he was, but we also needed frosh to come in as above average defenders, Fall to modestly pan out, and Grant to improve materially on D to have had a chance of truly being competitive. I’m probably leaving things out. Next year it would be reasonable to say the D needs a complete revamp but with continued player development of retained guys and some offensive rebounding additions we could actually be okay on offense if the D gets fixed.
Yeah, it’s not a hard concept to figure out, good programs want good players and they want as many of them as possible. We may be able to keep him, there is also the B Knight and where he ends up next year factor at play, but there will be interest in Francis from much better basketball programs than Rutgers. Not sure why some try to twist themselves into a pretzel over this, try to diminish him, similar things were done with Cam to diminish him and that it was not a big deal when he left…..Not doing a comparison of Cam to Francis, but good programs will want him on their roster.
Given Pike's offensive style... he absolutely needs to keep TF. He's fun to watch and I am happy nobody can find a single post from me poo-pooing this kid pre-season cause I've seen enough of these lower level kids come in and light up Rutgers.
Add to that a solid center starter and another solid 4 to replace DG..with a focus on rebounding and defending the paint...let's go. Tourney bound? eh, no. But we'll be a bubble again perhaps.
Haven't read the entire thread, so apologies if this is repeating what others have said, but here's where I am on player retention. This is purely my own opinions, having nothing to do with what we THINK is going to happen based on intel that's out there about certain guys having one foot out the door already.
Want to Keep:
I reiterate, I'm aware we're highly unlikely to be retaining 9 guys.
Want to Keep:
- Guards -- Francis, Mark, Powers, Jones, JMike. Also obviously signing the high school recruit (Wooten) who is a guard.
- Wings/Forwards - Buchanan, Zrno, Nwuli
- Bigs - Ogbole (strictly as 10-min. backup C)
I reiterate, I'm aware we're highly unlikely to be retaining 9 guys.
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Pike's coaching style/system will not be successful without a solid core of returnees who know the system.
Hence 1 of 2 things need to happen
1) RU brings in 4 new and improved starters, along with a new coaching staff
Or
2) You at least bring back Francis, Mark, Buchanon, Powers and pay for a quality 5 and 4
However, if you do option 1, will RU still have Francis in 26 ?
Hence 1 of 2 things need to happen
1) RU brings in 4 new and improved starters, along with a new coaching staff
Or
2) You at least bring back Francis, Mark, Buchanon, Powers and pay for a quality 5 and 4
However, if you do option 1, will RU still have Francis in 26 ?
Thru 19 gm in B1G
____________FG/3pt/FTs
Dortch(18) 14-21 66.7/0/10-16 62.5
Ogbole 28-47 59.6/0/7-14 50.0
Zero inside presence.
__________FG/3pt/FTs
Mark(18) 42-91 46.2/7-24 29.2/29-38 76.3(misd 1st 8 3s, 7-16 43.8 since)
Buchanan 63-138 45.7/9-23 39.1/36-60 60.0
Nwuli(18) 12-27 44.4/3-5 60.0/15-23 65.2
Francis 113-267 42.3/26-75 34.7/91-97 93.8
Grant 50-124 40.3/10-40 25.0/32-47 68.1
Davis 42-106 39.6/11-39 28.2/25-31 80.6
Zrno 49-126 38.9/34-95 35.8/15-16 93.8
Powers 60-159 37.7/26-73 35.6/8-11 72.7
F10 27-86 31.4/14-42 33.3
L9 33-73 45.2/12-31 38.7
Pretty good idea who we should keep given the numbers in conference.
____________FG/3pt/FTs
Dortch(18) 14-21 66.7/0/10-16 62.5
Ogbole 28-47 59.6/0/7-14 50.0
Zero inside presence.
__________FG/3pt/FTs
Mark(18) 42-91 46.2/7-24 29.2/29-38 76.3(misd 1st 8 3s, 7-16 43.8 since)
Buchanan 63-138 45.7/9-23 39.1/36-60 60.0
Nwuli(18) 12-27 44.4/3-5 60.0/15-23 65.2
Francis 113-267 42.3/26-75 34.7/91-97 93.8
Grant 50-124 40.3/10-40 25.0/32-47 68.1
Davis 42-106 39.6/11-39 28.2/25-31 80.6
Zrno 49-126 38.9/34-95 35.8/15-16 93.8
Powers 60-159 37.7/26-73 35.6/8-11 72.7
F10 27-86 31.4/14-42 33.3
L9 33-73 45.2/12-31 38.7
Pretty good idea who we should keep given the numbers in conference.
Option 1 = lame duck coach and staff. Knight can’t be replaced this year. Lots of hype about it but it would be a huge mistake at this point in time. I can’t imagine Zinn is that stupid.
Forget even the TF connection. Zinn went on the Rant and all but said this isn’t a multi-year rebuild opportunity for Pike. Who the heck is he getting to come to Rutgers knowing that situation. And talk about bad timing to kick start another open portal season with a search for someone to run the offense. We’re not hiring someone to oversee offense and then guessing right on enough midmajor portal hopefuls to become a tourney team.
Not being a smart a$$, because I respect all your stuff Degaz. Miss your game summaries. You think we’re just a moderately paid C away? Cause those nine are going to cost you and I’m not sure they’re all worth it. It looks like the same team.
Well it’s just a list of who he’d keep if they were interested. Seems unlikely both J Mike and Mark would return if we retain Francis.
Under the assumption TF stays, we are realistically 2.5 smart additions away from having a non-long shot chance of fielding a competitive bubble caliber team (for now that’s where I’d set the bar in terms the minimum improvement needed to even consider calling the season a successs).
I say it that way because no matter what, we’re not buying a penciled in super star. There’s probably not even a price tag we could shell out to realistically expect to land one of those. First of all, there won’t be as many of them some think (and the number of them entering the portal each year is likely going to go down now that teams are building up their NIL programs). Any team that had a successful season has spent the offseason raising money to keep their best players.
But that’s oddly why I’m somewhat optimistic. I think this team could be a lot better without picking up kids that fall into the category above. We need offensive rebounding, physical presence in the post, and help defense from wings / forwards as the number one priorities. These things aren’t going to be that expensive because we’re not going to be targeting offensive playmakers (I’m not saying other teams won’t have better playmakers than TF with less other flaws but last offseason we had no surefire playmaker to build a roster around. Simply having that to start would put us in a way better position.) Need to fix the frontcourt D and make make offensive rebounding a strength again - starting center and forward (must replace Grant’s minutes as his D just isn’t good enough). If you get those - then we can target one of those wing/forward CC type kids who put up points at the lowest level and hustles. No guarantee but we’ll have a chance…
Kenpom says we rank 132 relative to the pack this year not relative to past years.
I said IF the defense improved that would happen. More defensive stops translates into more opportunities to push pace and score before the defense gets set. That’s universally true. The 2023-24 had a lot more of those opportunities - that team just stunk at finishing period.
Our current team is historically bad at defense outside of the short stints of full court press we apply in late game situations where the team with the lead isn’t looking to punish the press when they do break it and instead chooses to “eat clock”. We don’t get many opportunities to play offense outside of the halfcourt sets. So your right - we didn’t end up being a team that scored a lot in transition that’s a function of us sucking balls at D rather than not having the personnel to convert at a faster pace.
Hard to talk about who should stay other than Tariq without knowing “salary” demands. Tariq is easy because whatever the market commands we have to match and hope he wants to stick around. At this point, he’s not really a replaceable piece for Pike because even if we were to get lucky and land another mid major kid who steps up or someone else on our current team ends up making strides - the consequence of not knowing who and what that will look like to build the rest of the roster around is a death sentence for Pike. It takes him so long to figure out rotations as it is. That’s what so many folks just don’t seem to get.
You might be right about needing 3-4 starters but I think it’s reasonable to think there’s at least a chance that we would only need 2.5. You don’t count on “everyone” getting better but it’s within the realm that if you were to retain Zrno, Powers, Nwuli and Jones (who practiced all season) one of them might improve enough to play starter minutes and then Buchanan at 22ish mpg. Again - the question is at what price tag?
I agree with a lot of what you’re saying. I’m only concerned that you’re underestimating the cost of full retention and what we need. With Degaz keepers and your smart adds that’s paying 12. If we have say an $8mm budget just the new C and pf will cost half of that. That leaves $4mm. TF for another $1.25-1.5mm. Now you’re down to $2.5mm to pay 9 players. My fear is Pike, because of his perception of talent and loyalty, overpays some of his returnees (like JMike) and that all adds up and hurts what we can pay the NEEDED new frontcourt. You can’t skimp there in hopes the returnees can improve that much. Folks are just seeing too much in beating bottom dwellers in OT and playing msu close. There’s been a lot of stinker efforts this year from this group, too many to ignore for just hope that they’ll improve significantly. To be a ncaa play in type team it’s going to take a lot of tough conversations with players, overtime by Rob Sullivan and Pike to listen to Rob and embrace some elements of modern offensive basketball. I hope it all comes together.
Who are you suggesting he is coveted by? I like Francis, but he likely doesn't start on most of our conference foes. Yes he is 13th in scoring but that's only because he probably takes 35% of our shots. He is a luxury on just about any other team in our conference. Yes, I think he will be pursued, I just don't agree that he will be as much sought after as you suggest
Pretend you are Michigan or Indiana.
You have a budget nearing $20m(?).
Would you want a proven B1G scorer off the bench? Of course that would be a great luxury.
Now would you spend 5% ($1m) or even 7.5% ($1.5m) of your budget on that?
Easily.
That's why exactly why he will be pursued. These other teams have much larger budgets and have the money spend as such on a luxury.
Off the bench proven scorer.
These roster construction questions are very interesting.
I wonder how many people really watch or understand professional sports.
This isn't just about scholarships anymore.
You have to factor in cost and role.
Also competing against teams with much larger budgets who can vastly overpay a player for this role.
Take Lino Mark.
A major budget school may look at their roster and say "hey - we have about 900k that's not spent and the rest of the roster is set. Lets throw it at the Rutgers kid as our 3rd PG. See if he has something and could be a piece for 2027 in a bigger role" and just completely overpay him.
Exactly what happened with Lathan.
We cant do that. We dont have the money.
But that doesnt mean someone else cant do that.
I wonder how many people really watch or understand professional sports.
This isn't just about scholarships anymore.
You have to factor in cost and role.
Also competing against teams with much larger budgets who can vastly overpay a player for this role.
Take Lino Mark.
A major budget school may look at their roster and say "hey - we have about 900k that's not spent and the rest of the roster is set. Lets throw it at the Rutgers kid as our 3rd PG. See if he has something and could be a piece for 2027 in a bigger role" and just completely overpay him.
Exactly what happened with Lathan.
We cant do that. We dont have the money.
But that doesnt mean someone else cant do that.
I do not think we can compete seriously in the B10 without much more money. As others have said, B10 schools have lots of money and will drive up costs, and our increased budget isn't really increased at all and may be decreased. Kids have no loyalty, do not think they care that much about PT, it is almost all about immediate $s. It's a bad state of affairs for us, and I'm not sure we will ever catch up without a major private or corporate donor. Speaking of corporate donors, why would they care about Rutgers basketball? Like how would you explain NIL to Rutgers to your shareholders???
Yeah I get that and I’m not disagreeing at all. Put another way - I would prioritize specifically the things we need but likely won’t be able to land cheaper / superior in the portal. In order:
Tariq - can’t replace in portal
Buchanan - likely cheaper than what we can get to replace him. Value in ability to play multiple positions.
J Mike or Lino - as back up PG. If either or both are seeking a bigger expected role they walk. As a back up, I don’t think we’ll be able to bring in someone better / high major or close to it experienced than either of them at comparable price point.
Ogbole - there is no chance we’re getting a better back up center. Let’s hope we at least get a starter. If we don’t retain Ogbole it will be an Agee or Fall level gamble for back up.
I’d offer Powers and Zrno similar packages based on what they are likely to make elsewhere - assess interest - and ultimately negotiate up on whichever one Pike prefers if necessary. I think there’s something to be said for a second off season in Pike’s system on D vs a low major gamble shooter like PJ. But I wouldn’t go crazy in this bucket either. There are going to be so many low major SGs in the portal.
Nwuli and Dortch should get offered only a slight bump from whatever they got this year.
Not everyone is going to choose to stick around.
My prediction for the roster next year (not what I want but what I think will happen):
Starters (in $ order):
Center from portal: $1.75 million
Tariq at PG: $1.5 million
Power Forward from portal: $1.25 million
Buchanan at SF: $750k
Powers at SG: $500k
Sub-total: $5.75 million
Bench (8 players):
5 Ogbole or Portal Center: $500k, Dortch: $250k
4 Grant: $500k Nwulli: $350k
3: Zrno: $400k
2 Wooten: $250k, Jones: $250k
1 Davis: $500k
Sub-total: $3 million
Total: $8.75 million
Gone next year: Mark, Badalau, Fall, Ware
Starters (in $ order):
Center from portal: $1.75 million
Tariq at PG: $1.5 million
Power Forward from portal: $1.25 million
Buchanan at SF: $750k
Powers at SG: $500k
Sub-total: $5.75 million
Bench (8 players):
5 Ogbole or Portal Center: $500k, Dortch: $250k
4 Grant: $500k Nwulli: $350k
3: Zrno: $400k
2 Wooten: $250k, Jones: $250k
1 Davis: $500k
Sub-total: $3 million
Total: $8.75 million
Gone next year: Mark, Badalau, Fall, Ware
It wouldn’t be my choice, but I think a combination of loyalty, continuity, and budget will dictate that Pike will bring back at least 2 and possibly all 4 of those guys.
I would move Powers/Buchannon to the bench.
Keep the backup Center
Cut Jones, Grant, Dortch: $1m for a transfer starting Guard next to Francis
Cut Nwuli, Zrno, Davis: $1.25m for a tranafer starting SF/Wing
Roster:
4 new starters
Francis
Bench: Center, Buchanan, Powers, Wooten
Spots 10-12 minimal money.
Maybe if we save some money - offer Davis/Mark $250k as backup PG.
Ideally Wooten is getting less and that money goes towards a bench PG.
I understand it’s what you think, not what you want. And I can see you being right and I can also see us being COOKED. a total of 3m for a starting c and pf and we all might be missing Baye Fall. 1.5mm for Ogbole Grant and JMike and we better hope our starters play 39 mins each.
I like this tweak, pay 8-9, but 1.75m for a starting c in 26-27 is going to leave us with a hole in the middle still.
Agree, wouldn't keep Grant or Dortch
Nwuli can shoot the ball, get 15lbs on him and he could be an asset off the bench
All this talk about what players are worth makes me happy we finally have a GM. Can’t imagine having a coach having to moneyball a roster without help. It’s actually kind of crazy what Greg and Pike have had to deal with - raise money yourself, develop the financial analytics yourself, scout players yourself, oh, and then run a program.
I hope we do. With 15 spots, NIL will dictate who departs. Obviously, I don’t know the market, but think could probably get away with giving most 100-250k, allocate more to guys like Francis and that should leave a decent amount to address the needs. I’m assuming we go to 3-4m for a 5. Tariq at 1M, Buck at 750, and then have 3-4m to go address other needs.
In a sense the recruiting game hasn’t changed.
Let’s say we need $1.75M for a good two-way center. Any player worth that much is gonna have many suitors.
So, in the end Pike still has to convince that player to come play for Rutgers.
Let’s say we need $1.75M for a good two-way center. Any player worth that much is gonna have many suitors.
So, in the end Pike still has to convince that player to come play for Rutgers.
Looking for everyone’s help here to come up with a consensus, best guess estimate of what it would cost to retain our own players. IMHO I can’t see Badalau or Fall as being worth it. For the rest my estimates are:
Francis 1.5m
Mark 600k
Powers 500k
Buchanan 700k
Dortch 250k
Ogbole 400k
Grant 1.0m
Nwuli 350k
Zrno 350k
Wooten 250k (new not retention)
Jones 250k
Davis 250k
Ware 250k
PLEASE, nit pick my numbers. Give me your estimated. Let me know if I’m about right, wrong, by how much. I know none of us know for sure but once we have enough opinions I’m going to pose a question that we all can answer and comment on. Thanks.
Francis 1.5m
Mark 600k
Powers 500k
Buchanan 700k
Dortch 250k
Ogbole 400k
Grant 1.0m
Nwuli 350k
Zrno 350k
Wooten 250k (new not retention)
Jones 250k
Davis 250k
Ware 250k
PLEASE, nit pick my numbers. Give me your estimated. Let me know if I’m about right, wrong, by how much. I know none of us know for sure but once we have enough opinions I’m going to pose a question that we all can answer and comment on. Thanks.
35% of D1 MBB entered the portal last year and this year that will be above 40% -some saying 50%. About a third of D1 transfers DID NOT get signed by a D1 team...not even their old team. The "demand" for a mediocre player on a bottom tier B1G team is very low. I don't know why you would pay a Nwuli, Badalau, Zrno, J-Mike when you can finish last for free. A winner rebounds like a winner, boxes out like a winner, and defends like a winner. We need to dump losers and buy winners. I'd want Francis, Mark, and Buchanan back but I wouldn't get sentimental about it. Clearing the whole roster would not break my heart. "Player Development" is a dead concept.