Kennedy vs. Arnold

[TheREALSpooner]

He couldn't have weighed 177 on Friday. It's 1.5% per week. And Friday was 5 days after his weigh in. Nothing against you but I a wish people would stop posting things they obviously dont understand

I think you guys are mostly just talking past each other.

For the record, I have no freaking clue what he weighed in at on Friday. But I believe you're referring to what the rules will "recognize" or "give him credit for" (for lack of better terms) as his weight based on the descent plan and not his actual weight. For instance, say the 1.5% says wrestler X can be no lower than 177 on Friday. He CAN, in fact, actually weigh less than that. Nothing prevents it. But being lighter has no effect on his descent plan or when he is eligible to wrestle 174.

 

[Corby2]

I think you guys are mostly just talking past each other.

For the record, I have no freaking clue what he weighed in at on Friday. But I believe you're referring to what the rules will "recognize" or "give him credit for" (for lack of better terms) as his weight based on the descent plan and not his actual weight. For instance, say the 1.5% says wrestler X can be no lower than 177 on Friday. He CAN, in fact, actually weigh less than that. Nothing prevents it. But being lighter has no effect on his descent plan or when he is eligible to wrestle 174.

Yes it would effect when you are eligible to wrestle 174. You must follow the 1.5% per week rule for official weigh ins or you start over using the number from your previous weigh in

 

[T8KUDWN]

174 is Patrick's weight class, but Gabe will get the opportunity to make it his.
Gabe will have to show he is consistently better than Patrick to be our guy at 174 this season.
It's not going to be easy for Gabe to do that, but it's great we have 2 guys with the potential to
be top 3 in the weight class.

 

[LIV4GOD]

If Arnold wins h2h and against Haines, you guys would have to be complete morans to not want him to be the starter. Thankfully none of you are making the decision.

The problem is coming up with a scenario this season in which it would even be likely he would get the chance.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

I think you guys are mostly just talking past each other.

For the record, I have no freaking clue what he weighed in at on Friday. But I believe you're referring to what the rules will "recognize" or "give him credit for" (for lack of better terms) as his weight based on the descent plan and not his actual weight. For instance, say the 1.5% says wrestler X can be no lower than 177 on Friday. He CAN, in fact, actually weigh less than that. Nothing prevents it. But being lighter has no effect on his descent plan or when he is eligible to wrestle 174.

Maybe you meant more.

If so, I think I would agree with you. But right now, I am with @Corby2 on this one.

 

[Corby2]

Maybe you meant more.

If so, I think I would agree with you. But right now, I am with @Corby2 on this one.

He also said being lighter has no effect on when you can weigh 174. Hes wrong. He obviously doesn't understand the rules. The plan is in place to keep guys from cutting to much weight. Yet he thinks you don't have to follow it

 

[MALOS]

174 is Patrick's weight class, but Gabe will get the opportunity to make it his.
Gabe will have to show he is consistently better than Patrick to be our guy at 174 this season.
It's not going to be easy for Gabe to do that, but it's great we have 2 guys with the potential to
be top 3 in the weight class.

Thanks, Coach. I mean who else can be that concrete with their information?

 

[VakAttack]

I do think Gabe is more likely to beat Haines (see: not likely at all, but we've seen the Kennedy/Haines match). But against the rest of the field....PK looks to my eye to clearly be the better bet.

 

[Slim45]

I do think Gabe is more likely to beat Haines (see: not likely at all, but we've seen the Kennedy/Haines match). But against the rest of the field....PK looks to my eye to clearly be the better bet.

To be fair, we’ve only seen Gabe in 1 match and he looked pretty dam good. Gabes defense is elite. If he can consistently show the kind of offense he did on Friday night, look out.

 

[TheREALSpooner]

Maybe you meant more.

If so, I think I would agree with you. But right now, I am with @Corby2 on this one.

I'm not sure I disagree with him. Just seems like some people are being thrown by terminology.

That said, he seems to know what Arnold has weighed in at, but for whatever reason refuses to state it. This would be a much shorter and sensible convo if he would just share that info.

 

[T8KUDWN]

Thanks, Coach. I mean who else can be that concrete with their information?

What did you want to hear? Some made up BS??
This is how it stands and I understand none of it is earth shattering news.
As of now it's Patrick's weight class and Gabe will have to consistently prove he is the better option.
After this season, the future plan is Gabe at 174.
This is the outlook by the coaching staff and Gabe.

 

[TherealGrip220]

I still say there is an 83% chance he weighed 177 which is <184 but >174 and allow him to be <174 for the SS

 

[maxpain]

I do think Gabe is more likely to beat Haines (see: not likely at all, but we've seen the Kennedy/Haines match). But against the rest of the field....PK looks to my eye to clearly be the better bet.

This is kind of random but stay with me. Most here are probably football fans and one thing I think about is something the Lions coach Dan Campbell has said. He is known for his bold calls to go for it on 4th down early and often.

His mantra when deciding whether or not to go for it is thinking about what the other coach would want him to do then do the opposite. If I was a PSU fan/coach, I would prefer the Hawkeyes to send out Kennedy because he hasn’t shown anything to indicate he legitimately could threaten Haines.

Now that could change after the salute and I don’t know if that translates to the overall decision on who goes at 174, but it’s something to think about and might offer a different perspective to consider.

Side note, I think more guys should consider this when having choice in the 2nd or 3rd periods. Anyways, that is my crazy rambling for the day. Go Lions tomorrow.

 

[Corby2]

I'm not sure I disagree with him. Just seems like some people are being thrown by terminology.

That said, he seems to know what Arnold has weighed in at, but for whatever reason refuses to state it. This would be a much shorter and sensible convo if he would just share that info.

Do you really think someone can weigh below what the descent plan says and it doesn't effect anything?

 

[Corby2]

I still say there is an 83% chance he weighed 177 which is <184 but >174 and allow him to be <174 for the SS

He was 184.7 on Sunday on day 2 of NDI so he can't weigh 177 on Friday.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

I'm not sure I disagree with him. Just seems like some people are being thrown by terminology.

That said, he seems to know what Arnold has weighed in at, but for whatever reason refuses to state it. This would be a much shorter and sensible convo if he would just share that info.

Well, I don’t know what the confusion is. One weighs in officially against their weight descent plan. They cannot lose more than 1.5% of their body weight from that weight when they make their next weekly weigh in.

Nobody can lose 1.5% exactly, so they are going to have to lose a lesser amount. That will make their next weigh in higher. Corby says lose too much and you lose that week, because you drop back to the prior week's weight.

I calculated backwards from exacty 174 with the unrealistic perfect/fastest descent per week to set a limit.

I think the math shows Gabe would've had to have weighed a bit less than 181.95 lbs against Pitt to be able to wrestle Civil War (assuming the Pitt Friday becomes a weigh in date for descent purposes).

I don't know if Corby knows GA's official last weigh in amount and date. I guess others could be postulating that GA could've weighed a bit less than 181.95lb.

So yeah, just saying his weight and its date would make things more straightforward.

 

[Corby2]

Well, I don’t know what the confusion is. One weighs in officially against their weight descent plan. They cannot lose more than 1.5% of their body weight from that weight when they make their next weekly weigh in.

Nobody can lose 1.5% exactly, so they are going to have to lose a lesser amount. That will make their next weigh in higher. Corby says lose too much and you lose that week, because you drop back to tbe prior week's weight.

I calculated backwards from exacty 174 with the unrealistic perfect/fastest descent per week to set a limit.

I think the math shows Gabe would've had to have weighed a bit less than 181.95 lbs against Pitt to be able to wrestle Civil War (assuming the Pitt Friday becomes a weigh in date for descent purposes).

I don't know if Corby knows GA's official last weigh in amount and date. I guess others could be postulating that GA could've weighed a bit less than 181.95lb.

So yeah, just saying his weight and its date would make things more straightforward.

He was 184.7 on Sunday day 2 of NDI. I believe you miss 8 consecutive competitions for violating the descent plan. Not sure why the confusion. Even with a casual fan this situation isn't hard to figure out. Spooner is quick to get on others but when he's wrong he just ignores it.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

He was 184.7 on Sunday on day 2 of NDI so he can't weigh 177 on Friday.

I guess he could've weighed as low as 182.7 for Pitt then, which would put "Civil War" out of reach.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

He was 184.7 on Sunday day 2 of NDI. I believe you miss 8 consecutive competitions for violating the descent plan. Not sure why the confusion. Even with a casual fan this situation isn't hard to figure out. Spooner is quick to get on others but when he's wrong he just ignores it.

I explained the Maths. It requires understanding exponents.

Somehow I came to an understanding that the coaches enter the data (weight and date) into some system the NCAA controls. Then they follow it. I am not even sure they understand the Maths.

 

[Libertylover]

To be fair, we’ve only seen Gabe in 1 match and he looked pretty dam good. Gabes defense is elite. If he can consistently show the kind of offense he did on Friday night, look out.

He looked more offensive at 174 as a true freshman, even when he bumped up against IASt. Couldn’t get anything going against Plott bumping up, but at least didn’t get majored. Just needs confidence and smart shots and be in the right weight class. Almost beat McEnelly last year if not for an ill advised shot in OT. Angelo isn’t a high volume shooter either, but is very smart about picking his spots. He’s not the biggest 184 yet, but can grow into it by next season.

 

[AFHawk86]

The 1.5% rule is stupid.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

The 1.5% rule is stupid.

I think you may be confusing it with the 4% rule

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

I believe you miss 8 consecutive competitions for violating the descent plan.

I read the related rule. It says for a "severe violation" so I'm thinking there's some wiggle room. I doubt they'd penalize a wrestler who gets the flu during their descent plan. Maybe Gabe got or will get the flu.

 

[mac119]

In reverse:
174*(1+0.015)^N = max weight N weeks out

N MAX Wgt
(Soldier Salute 43 days from 11/21 = 6+ weeks)
0 174.00
(Journeymen Wrestling "Uncivil War" 21 days from 11/21= 3 weeks)
1 176.61
2 179.26
3 181.95
(GA <= 184 on 11/21)
4 184.68

Except isn't the 1.5% based on their original "alpha" weight, not the minimum weight class, or did that change?

 

[WillieTheBrain]

my brain hurts.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Except isn't the 1.5% based on their original "alpha" weight, not the minimum weight class, or did that change?

The Math works equally forward and backwards. 174 is the target weight (for all I know Gabe is certified to 165). I calculated backwards the fastest descent from each weekly maximum higher weight looking back in time.

Pretty sure later posts cover it.

1.5% is from each weigh in. So if a wrestler only lose 1%, the next week's 1.5% is from a higher weight (since they did not lose the maximum 1.5%).

Not sure what you mean by "alpha" weight. It's definitely not from the very first weigh in. That just sets an initial plan, which each subsequent weigh in adjusts. That's how a safe descent is ensured throughout.

 

[WillieTheBrain]

Except isn't the 1.5% based on their original "alpha" weight, not the minimum weight class, or did that change?

1.5% PER WEEK!

not from alpha

from what you weighed LAST WEEK

 

[Corby2]

I read the related rule. It says for a "severe violation" so I'm thinking there's some wiggle room. I doubt they'd penalize a wrestler who gets the flu during their descent plan. Maybe Gabe got or will get the flu.

You just don't weigh in if your under the weight

 

[mac119]

1.5% PER WEEK!

not from alpha

from what you weighed LAST WEEK

OK. I think that's where people are getting confused. Maybe there are two different rules than people are incorrectly combining.

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ch...025-256RMWR_WeightManagementProgramPacket.pdf

So am I reading in this NCAA memo that the 1.5% applies to the alpha weight (hydration weight / BW / etc.) and the weeks to get there....only when determining the minimum weight class?

"The lowest allowable weight is calculated by using 1.5 percent of body weight lost per week from the initial certification to certification date. The OPC will use the appropriate equation [BW - (.015/7) * # of days * BW] to automatically calculate the lowest allowable weight-TWO [LAW2]."

I could understand that, but then the 1.5% amount actually changes when going week-to-week.....which then means you can never make the minimum weight class in the number of days/weeks in the original calculation formula because the BW would change each week rather than the "initial certification" weight. Granted, 1.5% off of 200 versus 174 is less than a pound a week, but it does make a difference in weeks/days to get there.

 

[Corby2]

1.5% PER WEEK!

not from alpha

from what you weighed LAST WEEK

This is painful. And I will believe Gabe is going 174 when he actually makes 174

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

You just don't weigh in if your under the weight

I thought if you were under you could just drink a prescribed amount of water. Like there could be a matched scale that was identical to but off the books of the official weigh in scale. But these tactics, just like purposefully not weighing in, would seem to be against the spirit of the whole rule and process.

So I somehow doubt that the NWCA OPC weight tracking isn't expecting at least a weekly weigh in. I think some allowances by virtue of the NCAA rule using the phrase "severe violation" are intended to dissuade such gamesmanship of the rule and its monitoring.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

the 1.5% amount actually changes when going week-to-week.....which then means you can never make the minimum weight class in the number of days/weeks in the original calculation formula because the BW would change each week rather than the "initial certification" weight. Granted, 1.5% off of 200 versus 174 is less than a pound a week, but it does make a difference in weeks/days to get there.

Correct. The descent model is an exponential function not a linear function. The lbs corresponding to 1.5% BW change because one is losing weight each week, so BW is changing each week.

It models a maximum descent redline. All actual descents will necessarily take longer.

The OPC descent plan can be considered to start anytime a certification weight is established (or reestablished). In season descents can occur without a recertification.

I also watched and read what you linked, and I agree some of the wording could be misunderstood.

 

[Zacrissy]

It should ABSOLUTELY be PK all the way to the Soldier. Then, IF Gabe were to beat him there, you put Gabe out against Haines, less than 2 weeks later, and say, "Impress me!" If he somehow pulls that off, you have Nebraska(Minto) the next dual after that. If he somehow pulls all of that off, then maybe you consider a best out of 3 type deal to decide. PK definitely deserves to be the man, but if Gabe can somehow run that gauntlet, I think he would earn a chance to wrestle off to finally decide it...

If I’m reading that right you are saying if Gabe were to beat PK heads up at the Soldier Salute, then follow that up he beating both #1 Haines and then top 5 Minto back to back…. You are saying then he MIGHT have earned the chance of a wrestle off at that point??

 

[TameTurk]

my brain hurts.

matches your face!

 

[Corby2]

I thought if you were under you could just drink a prescribed amount of water. Like there could be a matched scale that was identical to but off the books of the official weigh in scale. But these tactics, just like purposefully not weighing in, would seem to be against the spirit of the whole rule and process.

So I somehow doubt that the NWCA OPC weight tracking isn't expecting at least a weekly weigh in. I think some allowances by virtue of the NCAA rule using the phrase "severe violation" are intended to dissuade such gamesmanship of the rule and its monitoring.

Gabe could not weigh in again until the salute and make 174 there. No coaches are making the athletes follow the descent for practices. Which is why the rule is dumb

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Gabe could not weigh in again until the salute and make 174 there. No coaches are making the athletes follow the descent for practices. Which is why the rule is dumb

That is dumb that they don't weigh in at least once a week.

 

[AFHawk86]

Gabe could not weigh in again until the salute and make 174 there. No coaches are making the athletes follow the descent for practices. Which is why the rule is dumb

That’s what I said!

 

[MSU158]

If I’m reading that right you are saying if Gabe were to beat PK heads up at the Soldier Salute, then follow that up he beating both #1 Haines and then top 5 Minto back to back…. You are saying then he MIGHT have earned the chance of a wrestle off at that point??

To be fair, impress me didn’t mean he had to win. PK was dominated by Haines several time. Being competitive there would go a long way.

But, YES I want to see him against other top wrestlers before deciding he should take it for barely beating a guy from the same room. Familiarity is a great equalizer.

 

[Mattski]

I think a fully dedicated Gabe at 174 has the higher ceiling. But I think the "lapse" he had including the bad weight increase set him back. He's clearly working his way back in the right way but I'd be shocked if he weighed in under 180 against Pitt. He still looked a little puffy to me. If he somehow gets back to 174 and shows he can maintain it, may the best man win.

 

[Hawkapottomos Rex]

He couldn't have weighed 177 on Friday. It's 1.5% per week. And Friday was 5 days after his weigh in. Nothing against you but I a wish people would stop posting things they obviously dont understand

The point I was making is he could have weighed 177 it just wouldn't have changed his descent timeline. maybe I'm wrong on that.