Kenpom Collins vs Carmody

[Kat burglar]

I was wondering how the team ranked over the past 20 years to try to put this year into perspective.'

So we finished ranked 70 this year in Kenpom. A lot better than last year. It ranks 5th best over the past 20 years, tho frankly, I'm not sure how much difference there is between a 65 and a 74 ranked team, so maybe its a tie for 3rd best. When Carmody went to the NIT they were ranked 50, 65, 72 and 84. So if we had played 6 more cupcakes like usual we may have made NIT in a normal year. Also, this was a STACKED year for the Big Ten.

Interestingly, our tournament team went from 132 to 68 to 38 to make the tournament as an 8 seed. Will we show similar improvement? Who knows. If we make it into the 50s next year we should be a NIT team. 40s is a NCAA team. We'll see. But given the past this was a decent team with everyone coming back and a good recruiting class. Go Cats!

NU bball
Year	Kenpom	Coach
21`	70	collins
20	132	collins
19	74	collins
18	85	collins
17	38	collins	NCAA
16	68	collins
15	122	collins
14	134	collins
13	132	carmody
12	72	carmody	NIT
11	50	carmody	NIT
10	84	carmody	NIT
9	65	carmody	NIT
8	191	carmody
7	136	carmody
6	123	carmody
5	124	carmody
4	100	carmody
3	167	carmody
2	90	carmody

 

[Titanium999]

Collins is better

 

[CappyNU]

I was wondering how the team ranked over the past 20 years to try to put this year into perspective.'

So we finished ranked 70 this year in Kenpom. A lot better than last year. It ranks 5th best over the past 20 years, tho frankly, I'm not sure how much difference there is between a 65 and a 74 ranked team, so maybe its a tie for 3rd best. When Carmody went to the NIT they were ranked 50, 65, 72 and 84. So if we had played 6 more cupcakes like usual we may have made NIT in a normal year. Also, this was a STACKED year for the Big Ten.

Interestingly, our tournament team went from 132 to 68 to 38 to make the tournament as an 8 seed. Will we show similar improvement? Who knows. If we make it into the 50s next year we should be a NIT team. 40s is a NCAA team. We'll see. But given the past this was a decent team with everyone coming back and a good recruiting class. Go Cats!

I would add just one thing, Adjusted Efficiency Margin. Kenpom rank is helpful in a particular year, but across years it's not as accurate since some years might have better teams than others. The table is updated for pre-tourney adjusted efficiency margin.

NU bball
Year	Kenpom	AdjEff Margin	Coach
21`	70	+13.48	collins
20	132	+3.61	collins
19	74	+9.55	collins
18	85	+8.27	collins
17	38	+15.51	collins	NCAA
16	68	+11.25	collins
15	122	+4.65	collins
14	134	+3.27	collins
13	132	+2.78	carmody
12	72	+11.40	carmody	NIT
11	50	+12.35	carmody	NIT
10	84	+10.43	carmody	NIT
9	65	+12.22	carmody	NIT
8	191	-2.99	carmody
7	136	+2.38	carmody
6	123	+5.52	carmody
5	124	+4.08	carmody
4	100	+4.84	carmody
3	167	-0.28	carmody
2	90	+6.41	carmody

So per efficiency margin, this year's team was better than any team except for the tourney team, and a huge jump in quality from last year. The only better jump was going from 08 to the first NIT team in 09.

In comparison, Collins has 5 teams out of his first 8 seasons that were better than any of the teams in Carmody's first 8 seasons, including 1 NCAA berth. Obviously wins and losses matter and right now Collins isn't measuring up.

Carmody was able to find consistent success with the core of Shurna, Juice, Luka and Crawford which was kickstarted by Coble and Moore. Time will tell next year if Kopp and Nance can do the same to kickstart a new core, or if a change needs to be made.

 

[Kat burglar]

Thanks, Cappy. That adds a lot!

I didn't know what Adj Eff Margin was but this blog post explained it:

https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update/

That puts things in a more objective perspective.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Collins is a bad coach. Carmody was a creative coach, far better than Collins at developing players, far better at managing a game and his players.

Collins is a better recruiter. The facilities he has to offer recruits are much, much better than what Carmody had to work with.

If Carmody had this team, we'd be in the NCAA tournament.

 

[thewildcat2011]

Collins is a bad coach. Carmody was a creative coach, far better than Collins at developing players, far better at managing a game and his players.

Collins is a better recruiter. The facilities he has to offer recruits are much, much better than what Carmody had to work with.

If Carmody had this team, we'd be in the NCAA tournament.

Carmody couldn’t recruit this team if you handed him a list of their innermost desires and free admission to their high school girlfriends.

This team would tear the head off of any Carmody-era team and take a steaming crap down their neck. Enough with this ********.

 

[Styre]

This team would tear the head off of any Carmody-era team and take a steaming crap down their neck. Enough with this ********.

That's nice. Wish they would start doing that in actual games!

 

[thewildcat2011]

That's nice. Wish they would start doing that in actual games!

Me too, unfortunately they aren’t playing skinny, slow, Princeton offense, 1-3-1 gimmick defense with a 5’6” PG at the bottom teams!

Collins needs to make the tournament next year or he should be fired, but I’m not interested in pretending that we’ve fallen from some past glory.

 

[ricko6543211]

I would add just one thing, Adjusted Efficiency Margin. Kenpom rank is helpful in a particular year, but across years it's not as accurate since some years might have better teams than others. The table is updated for pre-tourney adjusted efficiency margin.

NU bball
Year	Kenpom	AdjEff Margin	Coach
21`	70	+13.48	collins
20	132	+3.61	collins
19	74	+9.55	collins
18	85	+8.27	collins
17	38	+15.51	collins	NCAA
16	68	+11.25	collins
15	122	+4.65	collins
14	134	+3.27	collins
13	132	+2.78	carmody
12	72	+11.40	carmody	NIT
11	50	+12.35	carmody	NIT
10	84	+10.43	carmody	NIT
9	65	+12.22	carmody	NIT
8	191	-2.99	carmody
7	136	+2.38	carmody
6	123	+5.52	carmody
5	124	+4.08	carmody
4	100	+4.84	carmody
3	167	-0.28	carmody
2	90	+6.41	carmody

So per efficiency margin, this year's team was better than any team except for the tourney team, and a huge jump in quality from last year. The only better jump was going from 08 to the first NIT team in 09.

In comparison, Collins has 5 teams out of his first 8 seasons that were better than any of the teams in Carmody's first 8 seasons, including 1 NCAA berth. Obviously wins and losses matter and right now Collins isn't measuring up.

Carmody was able to find consistent success with the core of Shurna, Juice, Luka and Crawford which was kickstarted by Coble and Moore. Time will tell next year if Kopp and Nance can do the same to kickstart a new core, or if a change needs to be made.

I got an average of +8.70 and rank 90 over Collins time here, which is about 16 spots better than Carmody's last 8 years here (to match Collins' time horizon), and about 21 spots better than Carmody's entire time horizon.

If you look at averages over the last 5 years (vs Carmody's final 5 years), they are almost exactly equal at ~80th and roughly +10 pts per 100 possessions over an average NCAA team, with Collins edging out Carmody in both categories. Somewhat depressingly, this year's team, while 13th in the B1G in KenPom, is above average vs almost any time horizon in our past. Combination of tough conference this year and we've been bad for a long time....

Coach / Time	KenPom Rank	Adj Efficiency
Collins	90.4	+8.70
Carmody L8Y	106.6	+6.76
Carmody Total	111.2	+5.76
Collins L5Y	79.8	+10.08
Carmody L5Y	80.6	+9.84

(PS I'm of the view that Collins needs to show a meaningful improvement next year - ie get us back to .500 in conference or at least close such that we are in the convo for the NCAAT, or else it's probably time to move on)

 

[Curdog7]

Carmody couldn’t recruit this team if you handed him a list of their innermost desires and free admission to their high school girlfriends.

This team would tear the head off of any Carmody-era team and take a steaming crap down their neck. Enough with this ********.

You are high. The team of shurna, Crawford, juice, nash would wipe the floor with this team. I have no idea what team you wstched this year but they were generally horrible.

 

[hdhntr1]

Collins is a bad coach. Carmody was a creative coach, far better than Collins at developing players, far better at managing a game and his players.

Collins is a better recruiter. The facilities he has to offer recruits are much, much better than what Carmody had to work with.

If Carmody had this team, we'd be in the NCAA tournament.

Carmody never faced a BIG as stacked as it was this year. Again the single toughest schedule in the history of KENPROM. And likely he would not have had this team as he would have not been able to recruit them. The best he ever did in conference was what? 8-8 BIG record in a weak BIG with guys like Young and Hardy left over from O'Neil and still that team was only ranked 100. Even his highest rated team (2011) only went 7-11 in the BIG and was not close to sniffing the dance and that team did not face this year's schedule. BC would not have done anything this year

 

[thewildcat2011]

You are high. The team of shurna, Crawford, juice, nash would wipe the floor with this team. I have no idea what team you wstched this year but they were generally horrible.

Which one? The one that managed 7 wins in a Big Ten with only 5 tournament teams and was worse by most advanced metrics than this year’s team? Funny joke.

 

[hdhntr1]

You are high. The team of shurna, Crawford, juice, nash would wipe the floor with this team. I have no idea what team you wstched this year but they were generally horrible.

That team did not face anything even close to what the BIG was this year. And they could not play D which this team was top 32. They wouldn't be mopping anything

 

[GatoLouco]

Which one? The one that managed 7 wins in a Big Ten with only 5 tournament teams and was worse by most advanced metrics than this year’s team? Funny joke.

The problem is that people tend to think of those players at their peak. And not when they played together.

Could Carmody ever run a team and not use the PO?

 

[Styre]

On pure talent and athleticism, yes, this team is better than anything Carmody produced. Coached properly and playing at their best, yeah, they'd likely defeat those NIT teams. But the problem with the current team is that they rarely play like that in actual games unless they're playing SIU-Edwardsville. If they came out with crap performances against those NIT teams, they would absolutely lose, and based on the past few seasons that's significantly more likely for them than playing a good game.

 

[Curdog7]

That team did not face anything even close to what the BIG was this year. And they could not play D which this team was top 32. They wouldn't be mopping anything

Ok, so the BIG was good this year. This NU team won 2 games against tourney teams. With lots of blowout losses mixed in (including a 13 game losing streak)!

You guys want to argue how good Vandy football is because they play in the SEC?

 

[thewildcat2011]

On pure talent and athleticism, yes, this team is better than anything Carmody produced. Coached properly and playing at their best, yeah, they'd likely defeat those NIT teams. But the problem with the current team is that they rarely play like that in actual games unless they're playing SIU-Edwardsville. If they came out with crap performances against those NIT teams, they would absolutely lose, and based on the past few seasons that's significantly more likely for them than playing a good game.

Did I dream the games where they beat Michigan State (tournament team and #4 in the country at the time), Ohio State (2 seed in the tournament), and Maryland (tournament team)? Did I dream the games where they were neck and neck down the stretch with Illinois (1 seed in the tournament), Purdue (4 seed in the tournament), IU (after beating them once), Rutgers (tournament team), and Penn State?

This year was simply not good enough when it comes to the most important aspect of the game: wins and losses. It simply wasn’t good enough and there were plenty of clunkers. If Collins doesn’t take us back to the dance next year, he should be fired. However, there are no “good old days” when it comes to NU basketball. I don’t miss making the NIT as the peak of NU basketball’s experience.

I don’t think Collins is some messiah, or even all that great, but he got us to the tournament and he’s gotten this team to show continued progress over the last 2 seasons against a brutal conference slate. If he doesn’t seal the deal next year, then can him, but please let’s not pretend like we’ve ever been so much better that we’re suddenly embarrassed by our lot.

 

[thewildcat2011]

Ok, so the BIG was good this year. This NU team won 2 games against tourney teams. With lots of blowout losses mixed in (including a 13 game losing streak)!

You guys want to argue how good Vandy football is because they play in the SEC?

What are you even trying to argue?

You said a certain Carmody team would “mop the floor” with last season’s team. The Carmody team you mentioned won a Herculean, big dick swinging, massive number of 7 conference games as opposed to this year’s minuscule, tiny, insignificant 6. That team won 2 games in conference against tournament teams. This team won 3. Are you starting to see how you sound stupid here?

No one is arguing we were “good” or even close to “good enough”, but the point is we didn’t used to be better either.

 

[Curdog7]

What are you even trying to argue?

You said a certain Carmody team would “mop the floor” with last season’s team. The Carmody team you mentioned won a Herculean, big dick swinging, massive number of 7 conference games as opposed to this year’s minuscule, tiny, insignificant 6. That team won 2 games in conference against tournament teams. This team won 3. Are you starting to see how you sound stupid here?

You are the one who brought up xarmody’s recruiting, not me.! You want to argue Carmody couldn’t recruit elite talent, have at it. Newsflash, neither can Collins, as evidenced by his bottom third finsishes the last 4 years. But the BIG is so tough! Good grief.

 

[Curdog7]

Did I dream the games where they beat Michigan State (tournament team and #4 in the country at the time), Ohio State (2 seed in the tournament), and Maryland (tournament team)? Did I dream the games where they were neck and neck down the stretch with Illinois (1 seed in the tournament), Purdue (4 seed in the tournament), IU (after beating them once), Rutgers (tournament team), and Penn State?

This year was simply not good enough when it comes to the most important aspect of the game: wins and losses. It simply wasn’t good enough and there were plenty of clunkers. If Collins doesn’t take us back to the dance next year, he should be fired. However, there are no “good old days” when it comes to NU basketball. I don’t miss making the NIT as the peak of NU basketball’s experience.

I don’t think Collins is some messiah, or even all that great, but he got us to the tournament and he’s gotten this team to show continued progress over the last 2 seasons against a brutal conference slate. If he doesn’t seal the deal next year, then can him, but please let’s not pretend like we’ve ever been so much better that we’re suddenly embarrassed by our lot.

Why are you inventing straw men? No one on here is looking back at the Carmody years as “the good old days”. He took NU to a point and couldn’t get over the hump. He had to go.

Collins got over the hump but it’s clear he can’t keep NU there. It’s clear he can’t keep NU competitive. He needs to go.

 

[thewildcat2011]

You are the one who brought up xarmody’s recruiting, not me.! You want to argue Carmody couldn’t recruit elite talent, have at it. Newsflash, neither can Collins, as evidenced by his bottom third finsishes the last 4 years. But the BIG is so tough! Good grief.

I was responding to post #5 in this thread, which made the asinine statement that Carmody could coach this group to the tournament and then you jumped in with your even more asinine statement that Carmody had a better team than this one at some point.

 

[thewildcat2011]

Why are you inventing straw men? No one on here is looking back at the Carmody years as “the good old days”. He took NU to a point and couldn’t get over the hump. He had to go.

Collins got over the hump but it’s clear he can’t keep NU there. It’s clear he can’t keep NU competitive. He needs to go.

There are multiple people in this thread, INCLUDING YOU, who are trying to make the point that we used to have better teams under Carmody. We didn't, end of story.

 

[Curdog7]

I was responding to post #5 in this thread, which made the asinine statement that Carmody could coach this group to the tournament and then you jumped in with your even more asinine statement that Carmody had a better team than this one at some point.

Yeah, go crazy with winning the argument over who is the tallest midget. Have a good one.

 

[thewildcat2011]

Yeah, go crazy with winning the argument over who is the tallest midget. Have a good one.

Don't let the door hit ya, genius.

 

[Styre]

Did I dream the games where they beat Michigan State (tournament team and #4 in the country at the time), Ohio State (2 seed in the tournament), and Maryland (tournament team)? Did I dream the games where they were neck and neck down the stretch with Illinois (1 seed in the tournament), Purdue (4 seed in the tournament), IU (after beating them once), Rutgers (tournament team), and Penn State?

Being "neck and neck down the stretch" doesn't mean anything. The sad, pathetic 2011 team took #1 Ohio State to the buzzer at W-R and to OT in the conference tournament, and if they'd won either of those games they may have jumped all the way into the tournament, and definitely would have if they'd won both. But they didn't.

I agree with you that the NIT teams were not some glorious basketball pinnacle, and that we shouldn't be longing for those days. Carmody had a ceiling and he hit it. I'm just pushing back on the idea that the current team could simply roll the ball out and obliterate those teams. The current team can't do that against anyone except like Arkansas-Pine Bluff. If the current team was good and consistent enough to regularly blow out NIT-caliber opposition, they'd be comfortably in the NCAAs and nobody would be complaining.

 

[thewildcat2011]

Being "neck and neck down the stretch" doesn't mean anything. The sad, pathetic 2011 team took #1 Ohio State to the buzzer at W-R and to OT in the conference tournament, and if they'd won either of those games they may have jumped all the way into the tournament, and definitely would have if they'd won both. But they didn't.

I agree with you that the NIT teams were not some glorious basketball pinnacle, and that we shouldn't be longing for those days. Carmody had a ceiling and he hit it. I'm just pushing back on the idea that the current team could simply roll the ball out and obliterate those teams. The current team can't do that against anyone except like Arkansas-Pine Bluff. If the current team was good and consistent enough to regularly blow out NIT-caliber opposition, they'd be comfortably in the NCAAs and nobody would be complaining.

We can agree to disagree on it.

The thing we can all agree on is that we need to be better next year, or we need to move on from Collins. I’ve never seen a more clear put up or shut up season.