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Kentucky Derby

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Louis_Skunt

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Oct 4, 2013
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Who's going? Who are you picking?

I'm going with Rodriguez.


Long shots- Luxor Cafe or Chunk of Gold. Luxor Cafe is from Japan, and im not a fan of Japan winning and they usually do poorly in the derby but his father is American Pharaoh.
 
T

Tskware

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2003
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Have not fully looked at Derby PP, but do not like East Avenue and Burnham Square. Going to look at the Japanese horses pretty closely.

I also do not like Good Cheer (ESPECIALLY at even money) in Oaks, going to try to beat her with an exacta box of La Cara (7), Five G (8), Tenma (9) and Quietside (14), may also consider Simply Joking (2) if the track comes up wet, which it might. Don't like 5 horses in a box, too much money to invest, have to shave it down. Not going the Trifecta route, hard to see Good Cheer not hitting the board.

May play some of those over Good Cheer in 2nd as insurance. Not worth betting the exacta if GC wins.

Always open to suggestions as to money management in horse betting. I definitely know how to read the PPs, but not as confident in my ability to make the right type of wager on races like the Oaks/Derby
 
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PickSixKing

PickSixKing

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Rodriguez scratched. Significant for a few reasons.

First of all, he had a real shot.

That makes one less speed horse. Can anyone else go with Citizen Bull and East Avenue?

That puts Baeza in the field. He ran a big race in the Santa Anita Derby and Randy Moss called him the 2nd best 3year old in the country when he was on with Tom Leach earlier this week.

 
T

Tskware

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Jan 26, 2003
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PickSixKing said:
Rodriguez scratched. Significant for a few reasons.

First of all, he had a real shot.

That makes one less speed horse. Can anyone else go with Citizen Bull and East Avenue?

That puts Baeza in the field. He ran a big race in the Santa Anita Derby and Randy Moss called him the 2nd best 3year old in the country when he was on with Tom Leach earlier this week.

Click to expand...

I had Rodriguez in my gimmicks for sure, but don't think Citizen Bull or East Avenue can outrun this field for 1 1/4. Definitely looking at adding Baeza to my bet(s)

Leaving Good Cheer out of my bets today, but may take her over several long shots in the Derby Oaks double, as insurance.
 
LineSkiCat14

LineSkiCat14

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PickSixKing said:
Rodriguez scratched. Significant for a few reasons.

First of all, he had a real shot.

That makes one less speed horse. Can anyone else go with Citizen Bull and East Avenue?

That puts Baeza in the field. He ran a big race in the Santa Anita Derby and Randy Moss called him the 2nd best 3year old in the country when he was on with Tom Leach earlier this week.

Click to expand...


Wait a second.. the biggest thing here for me is... Randy Moss knows horse racing this well? Like THE Randy Moss lol?
 
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catsfanbgky

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Oct 18, 2006
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Grande a horse I REALLY liked, scratched.

Bets locked in so far :
$5 Exacta Box - #8 Journalism (4-1) / #9 Burnham Square (12-1) / #18 Sovereignty (5-1)
Ticket amount - $30

$5 W/P/S #3 Final Gambit (30-1)
$5 W/P/S #14 Tiz Tastic (20-1)
$5 W/P/S #17 Sandman (6-1)
Ticket amount - $45

Total wagered - $75.

May add a couple more W/P/S bets on # Publisher (20-1) and #5 American Promise (30-1).
 
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catsfanbgky

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Rendered Judgement the #15 Horse will probably end up scratching. They are saying "probable" for the race, but cracked bones in a horse's leg is nothing to over look. We do not need another Eight Belles or other leg injuries causing death on track.
 
T

Tskware

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Jan 26, 2003
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catsfanbgky said:
Rendered Judgement the #15 Horse will probably end up scratching. They are saying "probable" for the race, but cracked bones in a horse's leg is nothing to over look. We do not need another Eight Belles or other leg injuries causing death on track.
Click to expand...
McPeek got an A+ for honesty last week when he said that horse probably belongs in an allowance race, not the Derby.
 
T

Tskware

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Only bet 3 races yesterday and struck out, but do have four $5 Oaks-Derby tickets today: Good Cheer with Final Gambit; Luxor Cafe; Publisher; and Baeza.
 
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UK 82

UK 82

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Just to get on record in the unlikely event that I win. I've got 20 bucks on Burnham Square and my wife has 20 on American Dream.
 
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PickSixKing

PickSixKing

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Good luck everyone. There are very few toss outs this year and you could make an argument for 80% of the field.

It's going to he a muddy one out there. Because of that, I can't key in on the West Coast Horses that have been racing in 5 Horse Fields in Sunny Southern California. That's a far cry from a 19 Horse Field at a rain soaked Churchill Downs. There is going to be a lot of mud kicked around so it's not going to be a smooth ride in the back.
 
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dkingsland967

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Jan 16, 2013
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The mud will hurt the closers and the horses with bigger frames.

I’m thinking of putting a trifecta box on Journalism, Luxor Cafe, Coal Battle and American Promise but I’m waffling on that last one.
 
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PickSixKing

PickSixKing

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I'm headed to Retama Park to bet since you can't wager online in Texas. Not even Horse Betting.

This may sound crazy but I cant get away from East Avenue especially at 36-1. I think he is setting up for a monster race today and will be up front. Sired by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Ghostzapper Mare he's bred for speed and stamina. After dominating the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland He was the favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year. He hit the gate at the start and almost threw the rider and had no chance after that. Speed and Fade in the Risen Star but looked fit in The Bluegrass being beaten by a nostril at the wire. He didn't look tired at the finish but Burnham Square was just a freight Train. Think he is fit and ready today and with the slop I'm hoping it will be a mess behind him

So many horses you could go with . I will use Luxor Cafe and think he has a huge shot. Sovereignty looks like he can run all day and I will throw Burnham Square in there.

I think Godolphin may be due for A Derby Win especially after winning the Oaks yesterday.

I'm probably wrong about everything but it will be a fun day 😅🐎🐎🐎
 
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dkingsland967

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PickSixKing said:
I'm headed to Retama Park to bet since you can't wager online in Texas. Not even Horse Betting.

This may sound crazy but I cant get away from East Avenue especially at 36-1. I think he is setting up for a monster race today and will be up front. Sired by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Ghostzapper Mare he's bred for speed and stamina. After dominating the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland He was the favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year. He hit the gate at the start and almost threw the rider and had no chance after that. Speed and Fade in the Risen Star but looked fit in The Bluegrass being beaten by a nostril at the wire. He didn't look tired at the finish but Burnham Square was just a freight Train. Think he is fit and ready today and with the slop I'm hoping it will be a mess behind him

So many horses you could go with . I will use Luxor Cafe and think he has a huge shot. Sovereignty looks like he can run all day and I will throw Burnham Square in there.

I think Godolphin may be due for A Derby Win especially after winning the Oaks yesterday.

I'm probably wrong about everything but it will be a fun day 😅🐎🐎🐎
Click to expand...

East Avenue has the speed for sure, it just feels like he’s a bit outclassed here by some of the top contenders. But so were half of the other Derby winners in the last decade so who the hell knows lol.

I don’t like Sovereignty (or Baeza) due to Sandman’s tendency to drift. I think there’s a good chance he is going to get out and cut off those horses in the last couple post positions.
 
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Tskware

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Jan 26, 2003
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rick64 said:


How can we forget without question the greatest race horse that ever lived.
Click to expand...

There was an article this week in the LHL explaining why his records have not been broken. He was a great horse, but also tracks were different and faster back then. For example, there hasn't been a track record set at Belmont in 12 or 14 years. Tracks are a bit softer for safety, so the article said. I think it said that the day Secretariat won the Derby, 2 or 3 other track records were set at Churchill.
 
rick64

rick64

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Jan 25, 2007
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Tskware said:
There was an article this week in the LHL explaining why his records have not been broken. He was a great horse, but also tracks were different and faster back then. For example, there hasn't been a track record set at Belmont in 12 or 14 years. Tracks are a bit softer for safety, so the article said. I think it said that the day Secretariat won the Derby, 2 or 3 other track records were set at Churchill.
Click to expand...
Too many horses hurts too in my opinion. More traffic to get through.
 
M

megablue

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Oct 2, 2012
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Here are my picks for the Derby ... free of charge :cool:

I like these two (2) pretty much equally:
JOURNALISM and BURNHAM SQUARE

ENJOY THE RACE EVERYBODY !!!
 
UK 82

UK 82

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My betting history on the Derby is really quite remarkable. I have a knack for picking the horse that finishes 7th. No lie.
 
PickSixKing

PickSixKing

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dkingsland967 said:
East Avenue has the speed for sure, it just feels like he’s a bit outclassed here by some of the top contenders. But so were half of the other Derby winners in the last decade so who the hell knows lol.

I don’t like Sovereignty (or Baeza) due to Sandman’s tendency to drift. I think there’s a good chance he is going to get out and cut off those horses in the last couple post positions.
Click to expand...
I think this whole race is a crap shoot so I guess my strategy is swing for the fences lol..

I'll be curious to see what the California Horses do. I just don't trust their speed speed figures from races with five entrants in perfect weather.
Good luck to you. Hope someone on this board is a big winner. 💰 💰
 
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dkingsland967

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PickSixKing said:
I think this whole race is a crap shoot so I guess my strategy is swing for the fences lol..

I'll be curious to see what the California Horses do. I just don't trust their speed speed figures from races with five entrants in perfect weather.
Good luck to you. Hope someone on this board is a big winner. 💰 💰
Click to expand...

Definitely a crap shoot with so many horses, and also a distance that most have never raced before.

Good luck to you too! I’m probably going to stick with my gut and go with the trifecta box I posted earlier, and probably hedge a bit with $5 across the board on Burnham Square.
 
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akaukswoosh

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Jan 14, 2006
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Favorite Journalism coming out of three straight races with only five horses in the field. He might win today but can’t see him navigating a race with this many horses.
 
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rick64

rick64

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Great time for Beshear to blow his own horn before handing out the trophy. 🙄
 
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