I wish we could maintain the offensive efficiency that we’ve had in recent years but add in the ability to also get stops....oh wait we have that.
Do we? GT looked decent on O. So did the Cuse. The Zags shredded us. UVA just refused to make threes, despite numerous open looks.
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If we are clear eyed and rational when we evaluate our D, we will have to admit that in true half court situations, our D isn't that great. Now, we attack passing lanes and tip passes and generate TOs well. But if the other team is methodical and careful with the ball, we aren't that effective outside blocked shots, which are more likely the result of outsize athleticism than solid defensive execution. Cuse, UVA, and GT (aka our last 3 opponents) had a distressing number of good looks at the rim, as well as open 3s.
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If the opposition is stupid or lazy, we can and do feast. If the pass is slightly off target, or a little slow, or just dumb, we can get a finger on it, turning it into a loose ball, which favors our length and athleticism. It wasn't noticeable until conf play because no one had enough tape on Duke to formulate a strategy, thanks to so many frosh. Also, in the pre-season, there is simply no time to formulate and implement a strategy, nor is there much point in doing so vs a team you might not play again for years. Or when you are so overmatched, as most teams are. Further, early on, we looked unstoppable. Cam and Jack were stroking threes, RJ and Zion looked like they weren't as bad from 3 as expected, and Zion was unstoppable.
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Conf teams are different. They have time (winter break) to analyze games and form a strategy. Because ACC teams only formulate strategies vs a few teams. In the last 4+ years, only UVA, Duke, UNC, FSU, Cuse, and Miami. This year, Miami is part of the pack, so teams just show up and play their game and try to win, because Miami isn't that good. Which is the plan vs the bottom of the conf: Play your game and hope to win. Further, vs most of those good teams, the strategy is similar from year to year:
Vs UNC: Rebound and run back on D
Vs UVA: Make threes and close out on their limited shooters
Vs Duke: Get out on our shooters and attack the rim vs Duke's Defense
Vs Cuse: Make 3s and close out on their shooters
Vs FSU: Play smart and hard on D vs their iffy offense
This year, both UVA and UNC have more shooters than usual. UNC is weaker on the boards and in the low post than usual, so that is a wash. Vs UVA, the strategy has to be tweaked, to get out on more shooters than usual, but it is a minor adjustment to the strategy that has been in place for the last 3-5 years.
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Playing Duke is much different this year. We don't have shooters, and the helter-skelter attacks on the rim, so successful in the last decade or so, don't work. In previous years, methodical offenses didn't have much success vs Duke. In a brains/coaching matchup, Duke almost always wins. Conversely, attacking quickly, before we got set, worked very well. Our perimeter players were usually easy to get around, and there was often no real rim protection behind them (or no real depth if we did have a single rim protector). This year it is the opposite, and it took teams a while to catch on. Older players, experienced vs Duke, told youngsters to stick like glue to our guys on the perimeter, not to worry about the paint defense in the half court, and to try to attack quickly before our D gets set. The offense could be a little ragged vs Duke's defense, because getting going downhill, ASAP, was the most important thing.
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This year, we are in the Upside Down. Let our shooters have wide open shots. Hopefully, most of our players will be dumb enough to take those enticing shots. Being careful with the ball is far more important than attacking with abandon. If our opponents aren't careful with the ball, we've got 3-4 guys on the court at all times that can generate steals. Teams are beginning to understand what our insane length and athleticism means to passing lanes. We gamble on D, but it works, a lot, because of that length and athleticism. With Bolden protecting the rim, rash penetration doesn't work (plus, Zion is lurking to make you look stupid on any iffy shot near the rim). But being careful and patient with the ball works incredibly well. Eventually, we gamble and fail, and then there are openings. Further, we leave a lot to be desired on closing out perimeter jumpers. Sure, Cuse and the Zags hit some tough jumpers. But they also hit a lot of wide open looks, which, you know, is expected.
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I know, I know. UVA. They are methodical on O. Well, we didn't so much as stop them on O as they missed shots. A 40% 3pt team shot 17% at 2 of 17. If they shoot 25% (almost) at just 4 of 15, still an awful shooting night, they win. Guy and Jerome are great shooters who just choked. Some of that was our D, but a lot wasn't. We will start to see teams adjust to Duke. We have required the most adjustment, strategy wise, of any team in the ACC this year. Given that we are the biggest game on the schedule, teams can and have put in the time to devise a strategy vs Duke. If they can implement it due to time constraints, or execute it well enough, remain to be seen.
