Surround Ryan Young, a proven inside scorer, with our four best shooters. In my opinion that would be Ty Berry. Miller Kopp, Boo Buie, and Pete Nance. Adiage, Beran, and Gaines off the bench for instant energy and depending on the position need. Ryan Greer for ball handling stability. We would be alot better off a low post threat in Young and isolating Nance in the post when he gets a size mismatch. Four out, one in and always go through the post. That gives us four starters that can make 3s off the break or kick outs. Those four can Shoot! Play a damn match up zone and let's shoot our way to some wins. Kopp and Berry should get the most 3 attempts. We would be one hell of alot better. Just expressing my observations.
Lineup change is necessary...
- Thread starter Rebel_
- Start date
We have not used this lineup (Boo-Berry-Kopp-Nance-Young) yet this year.
The double-big lineups have only played 6.2% of minutes on the season, and while they have been strong defensively, they have been poor on offense.
There have been 6 lineups that have used 3 of the desired players at the same time plus Young, which includes the 4 bolded from the above list plus:
There are 2 lineups that have used 4 of the desired players without Young, both great offense and terrible defense:
A lineup I would like to see more of consists of the 5 players who have overperformed their expected +/- so far based on their minutes played:
The double-big lineups have only played 6.2% of minutes on the season, and while they have been strong defensively, they have been poor on offense.
| Boo-Audige-Kopp | +2 (15-13) | 20 O poss, 16 D poss | 0.75 oPPP/0.81 dPPP |
| Gaines-Audige-Kopp | -5 (4-9) | 7 O poss, 6 D poss | 0.57 oPPP/1.50 dPPP |
| Greer-Berry-Gaines | +2 (4-2) | 5 O poss, 4 D poss | 0.80 oPPP/0.50 dPPP |
| Greer-Gaines-Kopp | +5 (8-3) | 6 O poss, 5 D poss | 1.33 oPPP/0.60 dPPP |
| Greer-Boo-Kopp | +4 (4-0) | 2 O poss, 1 D poss | 2.00 oPPP/0.00 dPPP |
| Boo-Berry-Audige | -4 (0-4) | 1 O poss, 2 D poss | 0.00 oPPP/2.00 dPPP |
| Greer-Audige-Kopp | -2 (0-2) | 1 O poss, 2 D poss | 0.00 oPPP/1.00 dPPP |
| Greer-Boo-Berry | -3 (0-3) | 0 O poss, 1 D poss | 0.00 oPPP/3.00 dPPP |
There have been 6 lineups that have used 3 of the desired players at the same time plus Young, which includes the 4 bolded from the above list plus:
| Boo-Berry-Gaines-Kopp-Young | -18 (21-39) | 26 O poss, 28 D poss | 0.81 oPPP/1.39 dPPP |
| Boo-Berry-Kopp-Beran-Young | +5 (9-4) | 4 O poss, 4 D poss | 2.25 oPPP/1.00 dPPP |
There are 2 lineups that have used 4 of the desired players without Young, both great offense and terrible defense:
| Boo-Berry-Gaines-Kopp-Nance | +7 (26-19) | 17 O poss, 13 D poss | 1.53 oPPP/1.46 dPPP |
| Boo-Berry-Kopp-Beran-Nance | +2 (14-12) | 9 O poss, 9 D poss | 1.56 oPPP/1.33 dPPP |
A lineup I would like to see more of consists of the 5 players who have overperformed their expected +/- so far based on their minutes played:
| Greer-Boo-Kopp-Beran-Nance | +6 (10-4) | 6 O poss, 7 D poss | 1.67 oPPP/0.57 dPPP |
Thanks for the stats, Cappy. Fun stuff.
The one thing it emphasizes to me is that we have issues at the two guard, whether it's Audige or Berry. Many of those negative combination are when they are in the lineup.
I'm nowhere near a member of the Berry fan club. He's a freshman and he plays like one. I don't understand everybody's love of his handle. His shot is fine, and his defense needs some help. He's fine coming off the bench.
I agree with the issues with the consistency of Audige.
I might want to experiment a bit with the idea of more minutes for Greer, but I think he's fine where he is. My guess is more minutes would show what he truly is. But it's worth checking out.
When I see the stats above, I start to think both Audige and Berry should watch a bit more.
That plays into a lineup change I've wondered if the Cats could get away with - Kopp at the 2. As we discussed, it gets him the ball more, and I think he MIGHT be able to stay with most 2s on defense. If not, you have a some good size behind him.
Then you have some mix of increased minutes between Beran, Young and Gaines at the 3 and 4. I'm not sure that would help the offense, but I'd hope the more points from Kopp would make up the difference.
The one thing it emphasizes to me is that we have issues at the two guard, whether it's Audige or Berry. Many of those negative combination are when they are in the lineup.
I'm nowhere near a member of the Berry fan club. He's a freshman and he plays like one. I don't understand everybody's love of his handle. His shot is fine, and his defense needs some help. He's fine coming off the bench.
I agree with the issues with the consistency of Audige.
I might want to experiment a bit with the idea of more minutes for Greer, but I think he's fine where he is. My guess is more minutes would show what he truly is. But it's worth checking out.
When I see the stats above, I start to think both Audige and Berry should watch a bit more.
That plays into a lineup change I've wondered if the Cats could get away with - Kopp at the 2. As we discussed, it gets him the ball more, and I think he MIGHT be able to stay with most 2s on defense. If not, you have a some good size behind him.
Then you have some mix of increased minutes between Beran, Young and Gaines at the 3 and 4. I'm not sure that would help the offense, but I'd hope the more points from Kopp would make up the difference.
We played Kopp/Beran/Nance/Young as starters last year. Don't know how many games. At least in Champaign we did.
If this year doesn't have postseason potential -- and it doesn't -- we should be force-feeding Berry minutes at point guard and let him work through mistakes. We need options in the years to come for the nights that Boo doesn't have it. There's no lock at point guard in next year's class either.
Your memory is correct. When Boo went down with the injury last year, we switched to the Spencer-Kopp-Beran-Nance-Young starting lineup for 8 of the next 9 games. Of the 7 lineups that played at least 5% of minutes last year, this lineup was 2nd offensively (0.99 oPPP) and 5th defensively (1.14 dPPP). Our averages last year were 0.94/1.08 respectively.
For comparison, we only have 2 lineups that have played >5% of minutes so far. Boo-Audige-Kopp-Beran-Nance (1.01/1.04) and Boo-Audige-Gaines-Kopp-Nance (1.09/1.05). Two other lineups are at 4.9%, Boo-Audige-Gaines-Kopp-Young (0.60/1.44, barf) and Greer-Berry-Gaines-Kopp-Young (1.27/1.22).
From memory I believe the Kopp/Beran/Mance Young lineup was also splitting minutes between man to man and 2-3 zone. I think we had abandoned the 1-3-1 at that time, but still played more zone than we do this year.
Agree on Young. Nance is not a center. They need to work the ball inside at crunch time. Cannot rely on three point shots when everyone is cold. Pound the rock. Crash the boards!
I was surprised that Young was taken out of the game after scoring consistently and then barely played afterwards.
If you simply look at shooting mechanics-Kopp, Beran and Berry have good strokes. Nance and Audige have flat shots with Nance's getting flatter as the season progresses, regressing to his earlier years, Buie's shot is his own and much like Shurna's is not going to change.
This team should be better than it has played. The inability to generate open shots for the shooters and lack of shooting discipline by some players has killed NU this year.
I just watched UVA dismantle Syracuse with a 5'10 player in the high post distributing passes to open shooters. UVA was patient and got open shots repeatedly-they also made them though.
If you simply look at shooting mechanics-Kopp, Beran and Berry have good strokes. Nance and Audige have flat shots with Nance's getting flatter as the season progresses, regressing to his earlier years, Buie's shot is his own and much like Shurna's is not going to change.
This team should be better than it has played. The inability to generate open shots for the shooters and lack of shooting discipline by some players has killed NU this year.
I just watched UVA dismantle Syracuse with a 5'10 player in the high post distributing passes to open shooters. UVA was patient and got open shots repeatedly-they also made them though.
I watched that game too. My thoughts were around how different the athleticism and BB IQ of UVA is compared to NU.....
Good observations. I usually watch B1G bball but last night that was the only game I was mildly interested in.
The contrast of maturity is astonishing. And after listening to CC say we wanted to "go inside" as PSU is somewhat undersized, and that he thought we did a good job at it, I questioned my own sanity.
I don't buy the talent deficit others here see. Our roster is, in my view, pretty decent. What we do with it, is not.
I compare our raw material to the following teams, and just don't see how we have a worse roster than them:
-UNL
-Minny (we don't have a player like Carr, but the rest, we are better served)
-Purdue (maybe Trevion is at a level we can't much, the rest? pretty average players)
-Maryland
-PSU
There's a case in my mind to be made for having comparable talent to:
-IU (TJD is Tyler Hansbrough'ish, and that's no small mountain to overcome, but the rest of the roster?)
-OSU (problem comparing, in my mind, is that they are more mature)
-Rutgers (not unlike OSU, more mature, not necessarily more talented)
IA/IL/MI/MSU/WI - don't think we can compare right now. Way more mature and, in some instances, with studs we just don't have. Does not mean we should not be stealing games from them. Minny stole a game from IA/MSU/MI. We stole one from MSU and looked like a powerhouse for 20 min against IL). Purdue keeps stealing games.
Where are our wins? 1/2 way into last season we heard so much we were going to "break through". Here we are, some 20 conference games later. Pound the Rock was fun as a mantra that one day we were going to make the tournament. Now it just sounds pathetic to me and more like an excuse to accept mediocrity.
Not sure if the advanced stats support this, but I feel we are a better team overall when Gaines is on the floor. I know he doesn't bring as much on the offensive end as some other guys, but he can hit an occasional three and he isn't bad at getting to the rim and finishing. But it's what he brings to defense, rebounding, etc. that I really like. Personally feel he should be getting more minutes. Maybe taking some away from Beran or Audige.
We do need inside scoring! We started out well with Nance scoring inside, but the schedule
is too brutal! Too many games in too short of time. We got a good team though.He had a pretty rough stretch from the first OSU game through the second OSU game (excepting the first half of the Illinois game), but the past three games he's brought much more and Collins has rewarded him with increased minutes accordingly.
Five game stretch from OSU through OSU: 20 mpg
Last three games: 29 mpg.
Accordingly, his +/- overperformance in the last 3 games is +9, second behind Nance's +10. Would not mind seeing a starting lineup with Boo-Berry/Greer-Gaines-Kopp-Nance
We are not wasting Beran, before the last game he was 0 for his last 11 threes, many of them wide open. Collins had to pull him in the one game because he passed up a wide open shot. He also has a tendency to get into foul trouble and take himself out of the game. The rest of the team needs to remember how to shoot the ball, and quickly, if we want to get Kopp more shots.
No inside game (except young). Basically if cats not hitting three pointers, they’re toast. Offense needs to run some stuff inside. Young needs to play majority of minutes at center