Lineup tidbits

[CappyNU]

Been tracking lineup data this year like usual, and have noticed a few things, so just tossing this out for discussion:

I've seen a lot of griping here and on InsideNU about the Greer-Gaines combination. Looking at all lineups so far with both players in, the complaints seem to have some merit. The two have played together for roughly 10 minutes per game, and those lineups are -13, being worse than average on both offense and defense.

However, I looked further at lineups with Greer-Gaines-Audige vs all other Greer-Gaines lineups and it's quite different:

• Greer-Gaines-Audige lineups are -19 in the roughly 2.5 minutes per game they play
• All other Greer-Gaines lineups are +6 in roughly 8 minutes per game

The real lineup killer though is Gaines-Audige together:

• In 11 minutes per game, Gaines-Audige lineups are an astounding -52
• All other lineups in 29 minutes per game are +40

Our starting lineup has been excellent so far, and it seems Collins has recognized it, as the lineup has been out on the floor increasingly over the past 3 games, going from 6:37 against OSU (+7), to 11:07 against Iowa (+8) and 14:58 against Michigan (-4). The problem has been that we have not had great performances from other lineups with the exception of a select few:

Greer-Buie-Gaines-Kopp-Young was effective against IU (+4) and OSU (+3), but only saw 00:57 against Iowa and no time against Michigan. Granted, Iowa and Michigan had significantly more height than IU and OSU, so I'm assuming that's the reason this lineup didn't play. Feels like tonight would be a good time to use it again as Illinois doesn't have much height outside of the C position.

Buie-Berry-Kopp-Beran-(Center) has also shown offensive sizzle, but not so great on the defensive end. +7 in less than 2 minutes per game, but we haven't been able to use this lineup much the past two games as Berry has gotten roasted defensively repeatedly.

Last note, it's clear Beran's ankle is not 100%, as Collins went from playing him 32 minutes against MSU, to only roughly 19 mpg in the last 3 games. It's hurt us not having him at full-strength as he has had a very strong start to the season. +5 against IU in the 7:24 he played before getting injured, +16 against OSU in 17:33, -3 against Iowa in 20:27 and -6 against Michigan in 20:09. Hopefully he keeps improving back to full strength as we need him in there as much as possible, especially if teams are going to start defending Nance with non-centers to neutralize him.

 

[DaCat]

As always, excellent breakdown of the data, Cappy.

Interested to see Nance-Young and Nance-Beran pairings.

 

[CappyNU]

Beran-Nance together is +1 in 15:30 mpg, though they have played 5 more defensive possessions than offensive. In further detail, Beran-Nance in the starting lineup is +17, while Beran-Nance combined with Gaines has been outscored 18-4.

Nance-Young is -4 in 3 mpg, though they have played 4 more offensive possessions than defensive. This combo was -1 against IU, +4 against OSU, -1 against Iowa and -6 against Michigan.

 

[DaCat]

Yikes, not a good look for Gaines. His lack of 3-point shooting success (1-5 for the season) and decent-but-not-lockdown defense isn't cutting it.

 

[Sec_112]

I'm sorry to hear the stats on how Gaines has tailed off, but I'm not surprised. I can't fault his effort at all, but ...

Are we allowed requests at this radio station? If so, I'd love to see similar comparison about Young. Maybe Young and Buie vs. Young and Greer.

I'd also be interested in the +/- of Boo vs. Greer.

There's no way I'd have comparable minutes for Greer compared to Buie. But I've been surprised and happy by what Greer has done with his minutes this year. I'd be interested to see if the stats confirm the eye test.

Thanks for work and thoughts, Cappy.

 

[GatoLouco]

Been tracking lineup data this year like usual, and have noticed a few things, so just tossing this out for discussion:

I've seen a lot of griping here and on InsideNU about the Greer-Gaines combination. Looking at all lineups so far with both players in, the complaints seem to have some merit. The two have played together for roughly 10 minutes per game, and those lineups are -13, being worse than average on both offense and defense.

However, I looked further at lineups with Greer-Gaines-Audige vs all other Greer-Gaines lineups and it's quite different:

• Greer-Gaines-Audige lineups are -19 in the roughly 2.5 minutes per game they play
• All other Greer-Gaines lineups are +6 in roughly 8 minutes per game

The real lineup killer though is Gaines-Audige together:

• In 11 minutes per game, Gaines-Audige lineups are an astounding -52
• All other lineups in 29 minutes per game are +40

Our starting lineup has been excellent so far, and it seems Collins has recognized it, as the lineup has been out on the floor increasingly over the past 3 games, going from 6:37 against OSU (+7), to 11:07 against Iowa (+8) and 14:58 against Michigan (-4). The problem has been that we have not had great performances from other lineups with the exception of a select few:

Greer-Buie-Gaines-Kopp-Young was effective against IU (+4) and OSU (+3), but only saw 00:57 against Iowa and no time against Michigan. Granted, Iowa and Michigan had significantly more height than IU and OSU, so I'm assuming that's the reason this lineup didn't play. Feels like tonight would be a good time to use it again as Illinois doesn't have much height outside of the C position.

Buie-Berry-Kopp-Beran-(Center) has also shown offensive sizzle, but not so great on the defensive end. +7 in less than 2 minutes per game, but we haven't been able to use this lineup much the past two games as Berry has gotten roasted defensively repeatedly.

Last note, it's clear Beran's ankle is not 100%, as Collins went from playing him 32 minutes against MSU, to only roughly 19 mpg in the last 3 games. It's hurt us not having him at full-strength as he has had a very strong start to the season. +5 against IU in the 7:24 he played before getting injured, +16 against OSU in 17:33, -3 against Iowa in 20:27 and -6 against Michigan in 20:09. Hopefully he keeps improving back to full strength as we need him in there as much as possible, especially if teams are going to start defending Nance with non-centers to neutralize him.

You sir are a treasure. Your "mathematicals and statisticals" (as one of my daughters once called it) are a delight.

Gaines looks bad, but the dude surely is put out there with some funky, not very offensive minded, lineups. We are deeper than we are used to being, but we are far from balanced in the 1-9 players we use. And, because of that, I can't understand lineups we see with just one of the starters in them.

For example, last game, at a point, we were playing with Greer/Berry/Gaines/Kopp/Young.
-Greer and Gaines are very limited offensively.
-Berry is a freshman who, for now, is mostly effective as a complement to others. In the starting 5 he'd do a lot of damage cause the kid can shoot. Not defending he should start, just trying to make the point he can't be expected, right now, to be bearing a lot of the load offensively
-Kopp is hounded even more in the lineup as there's hardly a need to float on defense
-Young ends up being the only legitimate option to create some off balance defense on the other side.

Players need to rest but goofy, goofy rotations have been happening. Strange things are afoot at the NU sideline

 

[CappyNU]

Yikes, not a good look for Gaines. His lack of 3-point shooting success (1-5 for the season) and decent-but-not-lockdown defense isn't cutting it.

Yeah, I don't know that I'd even refer to the defense as decent. When he is on the court we give up 1.20 points per possession, when he is on the bench we only give up 1.00 points per possession. Which would be one thing if he provided offense, but on that side of the ball it's 0.98 PPP on, 1.16 PPP off. Both situations are worst on the team, just ahead of Audige.

 

[CappyNU]

I'm sorry to hear the stats on how Gaines has tailed off, but I'm not surprised. I can't fault his effort at all, but ...

Are we allowed requests at this radio station? If so, I'd love to see similar comparison about Young. Maybe Young and Buie vs. Young and Greer.

I'd also be interested in the +/- of Boo vs. Greer.

There's no way I'd have comparable minutes for Greer compared to Buie. But I've been surprised and happy by what Greer has done with his minutes this year. I'd be interested to see if the stats confirm the eye test.

Thanks for work and thoughts, Cappy.

We take all requests here.

Greer-Buie-Young: +9 in 6% of total minutes
Greer-Young (no Buie): +1 in 15% of total minutes
Buie-Young: -16 in 17.6% of total minutes

Buie is +7 while playing 28 mpg, would be expected to be -8 given playing time for an overperformance of +15
Greer is +2 while playing 16 mpg, would be expected to be -5 given playing time for an overperformance of +7.

Edited due to calculation errors in the Greer-Young (no Buie) lineup.

 

[willycat]

I'm sorry to hear the stats on how Gaines has tailed off, but I'm not surprised. I can't fault his effort at all, but ...

Are we allowed requests at this radio station? If so, I'd love to see similar comparison about Young. Maybe Young and Buie vs. Young and Greer.

I'd also be interested in the +/- of Boo vs. Greer.

There's no way I'd have comparable minutes for Greer compared to Buie. But I've been surprised and happy by what Greer has done with his minutes this year. I'd be interested to see if the stats confirm the eye test.

Thanks for work and thoughts, Cappy.

More Greer and less Gaines.

 

[Titanium999]

We take all requests here.

Greer-Buie-Young: +9 in 6% of total minutes
Greer-Young (no Buie): -4 in 17% of total minutes
Buie-Young: -16 in 17.6% of total minutes

Buie is +7 while playing 28 mpg, would be expected to be -8 given playing time for an overperformance of +15
Greer is +2 while playing 16 mpg, would be expected to be -5 given playing time for an overperformance of +7.

I'm surprised at how good Greer looks. Rebounds and doest turn the ball over

 

[CappyNU]

You sir are a treasure. Your "mathematicals and statisticals" (as one of my daughters once called it) are a delight.

Gaines looks bad, but the dude surely is put out there with some funky, not very offensive minded, lineups. We are deeper than we are used to being, but we are far from balanced in the 1-9 players we use. And, because of that, I can't understand lineups we see with just one of the starters in them.

For example, last game, at a point, we were playing with Greer/Berry/Gaines/Kopp/Young.
-Greer and Gaines are very limited offensively.
-Berry is a freshman who, for now, is mostly effective as a complement to others. In the starting 5 he'd do a lot of damage cause the kid can shoot. Not defending he should start, just trying to make the point he can't be expected, right now, to be bearing a lot of the load offensively
-Kopp is hounded even more in the lineup as there's hardly a need to float on defense
-Young ends up being the only legitimate option to create some off balance defense on the other side.

Players need to rest but goofy, goofy rotations have been happening. Strange things are afoot at the NU sideline

Well, it's only the last game where the Greer/Berry/Gaines/Kopp/Young lineup was truly outmatched. During the MSU game that lineup outscored MSU 7-0 in 3 minutes of playing time. It was -3 against IU and even against Iowa before being -8 against Michigan.

 

[GatoLouco]

More Greer and less Gaines.

To me it just feels like if 2 of Nance/Beran/Young are on the bench, we are out of whack. We are already slower than most teams. If we go shorter we get into trouble.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Numbers aside, every time I see Gaines drive, or attempt to, I cringe.

 

[NURoseBowl]

Cappy, this is great stuff. Lends a lot of insight. Appreciate your taking the time to cobble all this together.

 

[CappyNU]

To me it just feels like if 2 of Nance/Beran/Young are on the bench, we are out of whack. We are already slower than most teams. If we go shorter we get into trouble.

Well, given that one of Nance and Young are always on the court (the last 3:09 against Michigan aside), you are correct that we perform much worse with Beran on the bench than when he is playing, which is why it's so important for his ankle to fully heal up.

With Beran: +16, 1.16 oPPP vs 1.02 dPPP
Without: -28, 0.98 oPPP vs 1.18 dPPP

At this point he is our single-most important player from a +/- perspective.

 

[freewillie07]

Intuitively, this all makes sense on Gaines. He pretty much needs to be the 5th scoring option when he's on the floor, and when it's with Greer, he's the 4th option. A little surprised that Gaines + Audige is so bad -- I wonder if part of that is with Gaines on the floor, Audige is more prone to jacking up bad shots?

Thanks for this analysis!

 

[Sec_112]

Numbers aside, every time I see Gaines drive, or attempt to, I cringe.

I'm close to you on that one. Frankly, I'd love to know how often he fumbles the ball and recovers it. That's not a turnover, but it upsets the flow of the offense. I bet he does it 25% of the time he touches the ball.

 

[Sec_112]

One more request, Cappy ... Maybe somewhere later in the season.

How about all the Buie, Greer and Young numbers in conference only and minus the MSU game - the Boo radical exception.

Don't get me wrong. I really like Boo, but I know he has weaknesses.

 

[willycat]

One more request, Cappy ... Maybe somewhere later in the season.

How about all the Buie, Greer and Young numbers in conference only and minus the MSU game - the Boo radical exception.

Don't get me wrong. I really like Boo, but I know he has weaknesses.

And without him last season at PG how did things look?