See, I see that as so entirely positive that it is almost too bland. Well, yeah, if there was a nuclear war tomorrow, the sun would still come up and the world would continue to turn.
But the idea that we are losing basically every player with any experience is pretty stunning, and can understandably cause some concerned discussion (especially when Carolina is in the final four and the off season is upon us.)
I also disagree with a number of people who seem to believe that Coach K has some grand plan, and all of this was foretold. The Emperor talked about everything proceeding as he had forseen it... how did THAT work out? K is K, but K is still a person managing teenagers, and a lot can happen that he didn't expect, and things can happen that any amount of planning cannot overcome. Remember that team with Ricky Price and Greg Newton and Taymon "Build a statue" Domzalski starting? Sure, K had a plan... but either A) it wasn't that or B) it didn't work out.
Germantown, I disagree that K ever sold OAD as the way to go. We are roughly recruiting the same players we ever have... we are just getting more of them, and OAD has become far more of an expectation. Including this year, we've had a grand total of two years with more than one OAD. Obviously that will change, but I don't think it has really been a grand change in philosophy. I DO think we need to continue to look to get guys who are three and four year guys, to compliment our top talent and help pass on the "Duke Way" to younger guys.
Dude, I agree that the other extreme of positivity is bland and kind of like- yeah we get it but...
To your points though here I think looking at it fairly- K did expect a mass exodus this year:
Amile, Matt and Grayson graduate. The plan was for Grayson to graduate and go pro- that's 3.
The assumption is that Tatum, Giles, Bolden are OAD. 2 of those 3 have happened. Now I don't know for a fact that the staff assumed/expected Bolden would be OAD, as much as he did, but it was out there. Bolden might leave anyway, so that "loss" was somewhat expected.
The only ones coming into the year that was not was Luke playing himself into the draft and Jeter possibly transferring (although this was out there since last year). So I'm not calling K a wizard or prophet but the plans were in place for a "mass exodus" from the beginning.
The other part is this OAD talk taking over. Yes we recruit OADs no other way around that. We have had at least one every year since 2011 except one (Mase's senior year). The only year we had multiple was 2015 when we won it all and two guys played themselves into the first round as freshmen. By definition that makes them OAD but I don't see a whole lot of difference between what Justise and Tyus did and what Luke did as a soph. All 3 played themselves into the draft a lot sooner than expected.
The plan is always to surround OAD talents with 3-4 year guys. We did that this year- Amile, Matt, Grayson. We have recruited what we believed to be 3-4 year guys each year- Luke, Chase, Alex O'Connell, Thornton, Semi, Vrank, Javin etc. where your point makes sense is that no K cannot predict when kids will leave bc they either play themselves into the draft like Luke Tyus and Justise, or when they transfer for whatever reasons they have- Semi, Chase, Thornton.
College hoops is volatile today. You plan the best you can, but it's never going to be a perfect science. The only thing you can do is try and get the best talent you can, try and stay healthy and make a run at it. That and hope the NBA changes the rule to let kids go straight to the league.