Whenever things go south for a head coach, there's a tipping point, a point of no return (more or less). For Mark Stoops, that time is quickly approaching. Thirty-eight games into his tenure, we're getting a good idea of where we are and where we're going. A few thoughts on Stoops and Kentucky football;
HOW DID WE GET HERE?
Stoops is in year #4. Frankly, virtually nothing was expected of him until now. And unfortunately, that's what he's produced. Stoops has had a number of close calls (a couple against Florida and U of L come to mind), but UK couldn't come through. Unless you count the road win over a poor South Carolina team, there have been no great wins. By UK standards, he's done a good job on the recruiting trail. Unfortunately, that isn't paying off in the win column. So here we are in year #4 sitting at 0-2 and looking putrid in the process. Today, Kentucky wasn't remotely competitive.
WHY HAVE THINGS GONE SO POORLY?
Football junkies like myself love to analyze every aspect of the game and team. Honestly though, there are two main reasons things aren't working out (IMO anyway). One, Kentucky can't find a QB. UK hasn't had a good one since Andre Woodson. Towles wasn't the answer. Barker is off to a VERY slow start (he looks woefully overwhelmed to me). Two, maybe most problematic is UK's lack of talent on the line of scrimmage. The offensive line is awful. The defensive line is awful. Not only is that not going to change in '16, it isn't likely to change in '17. In addition to the lack of quality Jimmy's and Joe's, Stoops has gone through offensive coordinators like U of L recruits go through hookers. There seemed to be a disconnect between Neal Brown and Stoops. That disconnect seemed worse between Shannon Dawson and UK's head coach. Now Eddie Gran has the gig. And no SEC quality QB (IMO). In fairness to the QB's, the constant OC changeover has almost certainly hindered their ability to develop.
IS IT POSSIBLE THAT STOOPS COULD STILL TURN THINGS AROUND?
Yes, but opportunities are fading! If you've seen the 2017 schedule, you know there's little chance Stoops gets to six wins. That means his best chance at a bowl is this year. UK isn't beating Louisville. Or Alabama. Or Tennessee. That leaves seven games. I'm not even sure how many of those seven are truly winnable, but the odds of this football team going 6-1 in those seven contests seem longer than Hillary Clinton's deleted e-mail list. So big picture, if Stoops fails to win six this season, he's probably looking at five straight losing campaigns. Considering fans are already losing interest, odds seem long that he'll survive past 2017 (IF he goes 5-7 or worse this season).
SO THAT LEAVES US WHERE?
Well, this is the part of each coaching tenure that we just have to endure. Mark Stoops isn't likely to win six games this year. On top of that, attendance at Commonwealth is going to absolutely plummet. If those things are both accurate, he's done at Kentucky (because he isn't winning six games next year). It's just a matter of when the clock runs out. Kind of like today's game, the Stoops tenure is going to be over long before the final gun. So when does the final gun sound?
THE CONTRACT
Mitch Barnhart needs to be held to task for the contract he gave Mark Stoops. Guaranteeing that much money to a guy that had accomplished absolutely nothing as a head coach equals complete and total incompetence. As for the contract, it's brutal. If Kentucky fires Mark Stoops before December 1st of next year, they owe him a ludicrous $12 million. I don't see Kentucky eating that much contract, EVEN IF/WHEN attendance falls off a cliff. If they fire him after next December 1st, they'll still owe him a little over $6 million.
SO HOW WILL THINGS SHAKE OUT?
IMHO, it couldn't be more obvious that Mark Stoops is in way over his head. His game management has been awful. UK's sideline seems as much like a circus as anything else. Four years into the Stoops era looks an awful lot like the Joker Phillips era. Hence, it's just a matter of time before Stoops is fired. I don't think there's a chance in hell UK eats $12 million though, so I'm guessing next year will be his last in Lexington. And honestly, who knows. That STILL requires Kentucky to eat over SIX MILLION dollars of contract (and that's just for the head coach; not sure what the contract status is among the rest of the staff).
GBB!!!
HOW DID WE GET HERE?
Stoops is in year #4. Frankly, virtually nothing was expected of him until now. And unfortunately, that's what he's produced. Stoops has had a number of close calls (a couple against Florida and U of L come to mind), but UK couldn't come through. Unless you count the road win over a poor South Carolina team, there have been no great wins. By UK standards, he's done a good job on the recruiting trail. Unfortunately, that isn't paying off in the win column. So here we are in year #4 sitting at 0-2 and looking putrid in the process. Today, Kentucky wasn't remotely competitive.
WHY HAVE THINGS GONE SO POORLY?
Football junkies like myself love to analyze every aspect of the game and team. Honestly though, there are two main reasons things aren't working out (IMO anyway). One, Kentucky can't find a QB. UK hasn't had a good one since Andre Woodson. Towles wasn't the answer. Barker is off to a VERY slow start (he looks woefully overwhelmed to me). Two, maybe most problematic is UK's lack of talent on the line of scrimmage. The offensive line is awful. The defensive line is awful. Not only is that not going to change in '16, it isn't likely to change in '17. In addition to the lack of quality Jimmy's and Joe's, Stoops has gone through offensive coordinators like U of L recruits go through hookers. There seemed to be a disconnect between Neal Brown and Stoops. That disconnect seemed worse between Shannon Dawson and UK's head coach. Now Eddie Gran has the gig. And no SEC quality QB (IMO). In fairness to the QB's, the constant OC changeover has almost certainly hindered their ability to develop.
IS IT POSSIBLE THAT STOOPS COULD STILL TURN THINGS AROUND?
Yes, but opportunities are fading! If you've seen the 2017 schedule, you know there's little chance Stoops gets to six wins. That means his best chance at a bowl is this year. UK isn't beating Louisville. Or Alabama. Or Tennessee. That leaves seven games. I'm not even sure how many of those seven are truly winnable, but the odds of this football team going 6-1 in those seven contests seem longer than Hillary Clinton's deleted e-mail list. So big picture, if Stoops fails to win six this season, he's probably looking at five straight losing campaigns. Considering fans are already losing interest, odds seem long that he'll survive past 2017 (IF he goes 5-7 or worse this season).
SO THAT LEAVES US WHERE?
Well, this is the part of each coaching tenure that we just have to endure. Mark Stoops isn't likely to win six games this year. On top of that, attendance at Commonwealth is going to absolutely plummet. If those things are both accurate, he's done at Kentucky (because he isn't winning six games next year). It's just a matter of when the clock runs out. Kind of like today's game, the Stoops tenure is going to be over long before the final gun. So when does the final gun sound?
THE CONTRACT
Mitch Barnhart needs to be held to task for the contract he gave Mark Stoops. Guaranteeing that much money to a guy that had accomplished absolutely nothing as a head coach equals complete and total incompetence. As for the contract, it's brutal. If Kentucky fires Mark Stoops before December 1st of next year, they owe him a ludicrous $12 million. I don't see Kentucky eating that much contract, EVEN IF/WHEN attendance falls off a cliff. If they fire him after next December 1st, they'll still owe him a little over $6 million.
SO HOW WILL THINGS SHAKE OUT?
IMHO, it couldn't be more obvious that Mark Stoops is in way over his head. His game management has been awful. UK's sideline seems as much like a circus as anything else. Four years into the Stoops era looks an awful lot like the Joker Phillips era. Hence, it's just a matter of time before Stoops is fired. I don't think there's a chance in hell UK eats $12 million though, so I'm guessing next year will be his last in Lexington. And honestly, who knows. That STILL requires Kentucky to eat over SIX MILLION dollars of contract (and that's just for the head coach; not sure what the contract status is among the rest of the staff).
GBB!!!
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