Here's Mike Fitz's take on the question on every NU fan's mind as the Cats head down the stretch.
Mike Fitz Column: It should be tourney or bust for Collins
- Thread starter lou v
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I really like this piece. The last two WR pieces have been great.
I do agree with most of what was written. But believe that, even if I didn't, I would still like them. I don't care much for a write up describing what happened in the game or pointing out statistics from the game. I see its value, but I watch the games and end up just reading about things I already know.
These last two pieces are opinion pieces. They force you to think, they are at least a bit controversial. And they could only come from people who pay close attention to our program.
I am not very knowledgeable about tournament bids, but it seems we sit at having to win 5 out 6 games to get in. Or 4 with a very deep run in the B1G tournament... maybe?
I do agree with most of what was written. But believe that, even if I didn't, I would still like them. I don't care much for a write up describing what happened in the game or pointing out statistics from the game. I see its value, but I watch the games and end up just reading about things I already know.
These last two pieces are opinion pieces. They force you to think, they are at least a bit controversial. And they could only come from people who pay close attention to our program.
I am not very knowledgeable about tournament bids, but it seems we sit at having to win 5 out 6 games to get in. Or 4 with a very deep run in the B1G tournament... maybe?
If we don't beat Purdue tonight, we likely aren't going to the tourney unless we win the BTT. There's a chance if we win the last 5 games plus 2-1 in the BTT that we could make it, but every game is must-win at this point.
Not really.
The Wildcats have been better at closing out BIG10 games under Collins when they’ve had better teams. For the years 12-13 through 17-18, they were one game within a .500 record in close games every year. They took a nose dive in 18-19 and 19-20, but recovered in 20-21 to be a 43% winner of close games in the Big. We are now only at 33% in 21-22, so a step back of course, but with still mostly easier games to go.
We also just don’t play that many close Bgames (within 5 points); about 6 per year. It’s meaningful, but hardly the key to everything. Collins is much better in non-Big games (46% over all years combined), but that’s only about 3 games per year.
As I’ve said before, he’s also playing a higher % of close games (be they wins or losses) than in any year except 16-17. And the blowout loss % this year is the lowest since 16-17.
A deeper look provides more insight.
(hope it's apparent I'm just joking around)To quote Sean Connery,
“Losers always (celebrate close losses).
Winners go home and (make the NCAA tournament).”
“Within one game of .500 in close games.” Seriously?!?!
How’s the luck rating ?
The author of that article wrote...
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If you had to point to one problem that has plagued Northwestern during their precipitous downfall since the tournament, however, it would be this: the complete inability to win close games. Northwestern is 11-27 in games decided by five points or fewer from the 2017-18 season on, and just 9-20 in Big Ten games.
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You responded by saying the article wasn't fair and cited data prior to the tournament season.
The piece articulates that which, by my rough estimate, about 85 percent of the posters here are thinking. So, yeah.
The problem is, the timing is off. What we're missing here is putting the question before Gragg. And he sure as hell wouldn't answer it now.
So, end of season, NU doesn't make the tourney, who's going to ask the AD: How much longer as we supposed to abide by this? What's your plan? Is the strategy to stick w/CC because he's almost there? If so, when do you expect "almost there" to become "actually there"?
The problem is, the timing is off. What we're missing here is putting the question before Gragg. And he sure as hell wouldn't answer it now.
So, end of season, NU doesn't make the tourney, who's going to ask the AD: How much longer as we supposed to abide by this? What's your plan? Is the strategy to stick w/CC because he's almost there? If so, when do you expect "almost there" to become "actually there"?
Yes; fair observation. But it was his choice to compare those years. I am comparing to a longer period that established a relationship that he has not. I think it’s quite reasonable and meaningful to do that.
I will also offer - over Collins’s career, his performance in close games is almost the same % win record as in all of his games. In my view, that’s not great (you would hope for 50/50 for close games), but it speaks to the lack of relative talent as being very much related to the close game performance.
I cannot find a single argument to refute in the Fitz piece. One can also make some arguments for keeping Collins, but it all comes down to Gragg’s worldview.
Okay. Definitely true that a bad team should be under 500, even in close games. When your talent isn't as good, the other team can just get serious and pull out the victory. I just don't think thats what we are seeing this year. You do.. Thats fine. We fundamentally disagree.
However, a Collins detractor might counter that the first couple of years Collins had Carmody's guys leading the team. This could justify ignoring those years in any assessment.
Seems like what a number of posters on here believe is that NU's academic restrictions singularly make this job one of the worst in all of college basketball and that we should thank our lucky stars that Chris Collins would even grant us the dignity of paying him $3M for 10 years guaranteed.
I actually agree with the first part of your sentence. Either our results over 80 years bear that out, or you believe our coaches have ALL been bad, and some (O’Neill, a proven winner elsewhere) terrible.
Not apples to apples. How much administrative support did prior coaches have compared to Collins? How much money for assistant coaches and staff? What was the booster support like? How has NU's reputation changed just in these last few decades? How has the D1 environment changed?
A job as terrible as you want people to believe wouldn't have attracted Collins out of Duke. By your own logic, Collins must be a terrible decision maker for throwing the prime of his career away down the black hole that is NU basketball; hell, any coach that is dumb enough to take the NU job is too dumb to hire! Let's call that the Gordie Paradox.
You don't think our academic restrictions maje winning at NU nearly impossible? Guess what... they DO!
The academic restrictions clearly weren’t that high historically if they let you into the school
I do like your post. But it’s very hard to put some “meat” behind how any of those issues make a difference. Even if I grant you your points - I don’t think other programs are stagnant. Just because we have a newer stadium and training facility and some more $ than we used to doesn’t mean that much battling on the floor. And how much has all of college basketball changed? Are there more kids playing, and looking to skip school and go to the NBA, or at least thinking they are going, leading to a bigger pool of talent, most of whom won’t qualify at NU? I would think so.
Collins has an ego and talent and a desire to succeed. NU does things the right way and he wanted to break through doing so at a great university. Not every guy would take the job (eg Jim Calhoun) but many (as we know from our many excellent coaches) would.
Anything paradoxical about that?
If NU's hopelessness is so self evident (as it is portrayed by you and some others here), why would someone with 'ego and talent' decide to come here in the prime of their career? Especially someone like Collins who has access to the best advisors anyone can hope for - his father, Coach K etc. Why didn't any of them warn him how dire and hopeless the situation is at NU?
It’s obviously not “dire and hopeless”, evidenced by Collins taking us to the NCAA and playing some excellent basketball this year, among others. I don’t portray it this way; you interpret it this way based on your own thinking. I just portray it as harder than other jobs, which it is.
If Collins is doing a good job in a difficult situation, why aren't there ever rumors about other programs looking to hire him ala what happens with Fitz?
Fitz is pretty close to a miracle maker. He’s a true leader. Collins does not have that type of leadership quality, as best I can see.
Yeah, I noted this quote, which sounds like Willy: "The program is hamstrung by academic requirements that none of its rivals face". So, this leaves us (sorry repeat from earlier post) with a couple of scenarios, either
- The statement is true. Then, it is nearly impossible to consistently compete, especially in the days of Portal/NIL. Then I will shut up, sit back, tolerate the suck and hope for mediocrity, or...
- The statement is not true, and we are at about the same levels as teams like Vandy or Stanford, who have been to the tourney 10x as often as us. Then the others need to STFU about academic requirements.
Or perhaps the professionals in this field have taken a look at what Collins has done in his 9 years as a head coach and aren’t that impressed.
Both things can be true. The job can be pretty awful AND still attractive for the right candidate. Collins is from the North Shore and has deep ties to the area and (presumably) wanted to raise his family in Chicago land instead of North Carolina. Also, some people just really like a challenge. Running an ultra marathon or climbing Mount Everest would be incredibly difficult for 99% of people and that’s exactly why some people want to do it.
O’Neill had 2 really good seasons out of 16 years coaching in college. His winning percentage is .472. How is he a proven winner?
Eh that’s a stretch. A career is not a hobby. How many people handicap their career on purpose just solely because they enjoy a massive challenge? Especially when the financial reward for succeeding isn’t in line with the challenge? Managers who take over failing companies get a huge windfall if they succeed. Collins basically gets paid the same whether he is at NU or some place like USC. If you viewed the NU job as a massive challenge, why would you take it so early on in your head coaching career?
PWB should be having a field day with your taking words out of context. Or maybe it’s just you being you and the whole board is used to it. But I never said he’s fantastic. I have just said he should not be fired this year, and I’ve given evidence to support it. We’re done here.
Exactly why NU got him. Local kid, likes area, raise family in familiar surroundings, big ten job where if he goes to tourney he does something no one before him has ever done. Not hard to see why Phillips targeted CC to come to NU.
Ok - replace climbing Everest with choosing a career like being a Navy Seal or an astronaut. Some people want to do REALLY hard things. If you are smart enough to become an astronaut, then you could likely have career options that would be lucrative that are less hazardous and will pay you the same or more money. For some people the challenge is part of the draw
I appreciate what you're saying, but I don't agree. Becoming an astronaut or Seal also has some pretty significant intangible benefits - prestige, respect, serving a greater purpose etc. The head coach of NU MBB on the other hand...
Take a step back - He’s the head coach of a Big 10 school making (literally) millions of dollars a year and is constantly on TV. It’s a really difficult job, but its not without its advantages
We’re talking comparatively between available choices. As in why would someone take the NU job over USC for example, if the assumption is that NU is so challenging that it is a career killer. Collins wasn’t going to go from Duke to Appalachian State. He would be at another P6 program if not at NU. The NU job has no significant advantages in pay, media, or prestige when compared against its peers. So my point is that taking the NU job, based on what you are arguing, would have been *solely* for the challenge of it, since it has no other major benefits when compared to a peer job, outside of location I suppose. A job so challenging that it has a chance of derailing your entire career. That’s just not what rational people do, even those that enjoy challenges. Therefore the conclusion is that either Collins was delusional and wrong about the depth of the challenge that NU presented, or the challenges of the program are overblown and the reason for Collins’ struggles are that he’s not very good at coaching.