Minutes lost to transfers

[GatoLouco]

Thought I'd share the article below.

It made me wonder if my perception that we've fared well on losing players is accurate. The purple part of the article is:

When the coach stays and the player goes​

Conversely, looking only at coaches who held the same positions for at least five seasons illustrates which programs export more transfers as a matter of course and not merely a regime change.

Here are the highest percentages of minutes played by eventual out-transfers at major-conference programs without a coaching change from 2018-19 to 2021-22:

1. Arizona State: 45%
2. West Virginia: 36%
3. Northwestern: 35%
4. Georgetown: 31%
5. TCU: 30%
6. Clemson: 26%
Rutgers: 26%
8. Colorado: 25%
9. Oregon: 24%
Washington: 24%

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...-teams-lose-most-minutes-players-transfer-out

 

[NUCat320]

Both Nance and Young make sense for the individuals, but they are a pretty solid reflection of where those players think the program is.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Thought I'd share the article below.

It made me wonder if my perception that we've fared well on losing players is accurate. The purple part of the article is:

When the coach stays and the player goes​

Conversely, looking only at coaches who held the same positions for at least five seasons illustrates which programs export more transfers as a matter of course and not merely a regime change.

Here are the highest percentages of minutes played by eventual out-transfers at major-conference programs without a coaching change from 2018-19 to 2021-22:

1. Arizona State: 45%
2. West Virginia: 36%
3. Northwestern: 35%
4. Georgetown: 31%
5. TCU: 30%
6. Clemson: 26%
Rutgers: 26%
8. Colorado: 25%
9. Oregon: 24%
Washington: 24%

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...-teams-lose-most-minutes-players-transfer-out

In retaining players, I think it is fair to say that we HAD faired pretty well - until this year.

Miller Kopp's departure last year was the first real indicator of a problem, but obviously one disgruntled player's rash decision to forego his Northwestern diploma might have been an anomaly.

Before that, though, there was the curious case of Barret Benson, who got his NU degree in 3 seasons, but then left to be a starter at Southern Illinois. Did Benson suspect that he was going to be benched behind redshirt freshman Ryan Young and sophomore Pete Nance? Did Collins tell him that? Not really sure, but pursuing a masters degree at SIU instead of Northwestern doesn't make much sense in a vacuum. “I would have loved to have him back,” Collins said. “I thought his role would have really expanded. We talked, and he wanted a different experience..."

But there are guys on the other side of the coin - Chase Audige and Robbie Beran both graduated this past June, but are sticking around to play another season of basketball, hopefully to get Masters degrees in something useful. Arguably, they realize that Collins gives them both seemingly un-ending opportunities they wouldn't get elsewhere, regardless of how they play or the team performs. And, presumably, they value those Northwestern degrees. They really have no reason to leave.

Ryan Young, I believe, decided that he would rather be a bench player at Duke with an MBA from Fuqua than a starter at Northwestern with an MBA from Kellogg. Thats his choice, but it would be an odd move if he really felt the loyalty or desire to play for Chris Collins.

Pete Nance wanted to go pro. He left NU because he got his diploma and the exposure, coaching and environment are significantly better at North Carolina.

Ryan Greer got his diploma and moved on, looking to start his career.

Casey Simmons left the program and is taking a year off, from what I understand. Not sure what that means, as it seems that he could have told the coach that he needed to take a year off, but wanted to remain with Northwestern.

 

[NUCat320]

In retaining players, I think it is fair to say that we HAD faired pretty well - until this year.

Miller Kopp's departure last year was the first real indicator of a problem, but obviously one disgruntled player's rash decision to forego his Northwestern diploma might have been an anomaly.

Before that, though, there was the curious case of Barret Benson, who got his NU degree in 3 seasons, but then left to be a starter at Southern Illinois. Did Benson suspect that he was going to be benched behind redshirt freshman Ryan Young and sophomore Pete Nance? Did Collins tell him that? Not really sure, but pursuing a masters degree at SIU instead of Northwestern doesn't make much sense in a vacuum. “I would have loved to have him back,” Collins said. “I thought his role would have really expanded. We talked, and he wanted a different experience..."

But there are guys on the other side of the coin - Chase Audige and Robbie Beran both graduated this past June, but are sticking around to play another season of basketball, hopefully to get Masters degrees in something useful. Arguably, they realize that Collins gives them both seemingly un-ending opportunities they wouldn't get elsewhere, regardless of how they play or the team performs. And, presumably, they value those Northwestern degrees. They really have no reason to leave.

Ryan Young, I believe, decided that he would rather be a bench player at Duke with an MBA from Fuqua than a starter at Northwestern with an MBA from Kellogg. Thats his choice, but it would be an odd move if he really felt the loyalty or desire to play for Chris Collins.

Pete Nance wanted to go pro. He left NU because he got his diploma and the exposure, coaching and environment are significantly better at North Carolina.

Ryan Greer got his diploma and moved on, looking to start his career.

Casey Simmons left the program and is taking a year off, from what I understand. Not sure what that means, as it seems that he could have told the coach that he needed to take a year off, but wanted to remain with Northwestern.

Ryan Young will not be getting a Duke MBA, at least not this year. He will be getting a ‘masters of management studies’, or some free credits towards such a degree, while also enjoying 0-15 minutes a game, raucous home crowds, a sweet-*** senior day, and playing for the final four.

It would have been the same case (clarification: the academics would have been the same) if he had stayed at NU.

 

[CatManTrue]

Both Nance and Young make sense for the individuals, but they are a pretty solid reflection of where those players think the program is.

They think “we stinks”, per @Purple Pile Driver ?

 

[SDakaGordie]

We get 4 playing years out of Nance and 3 out of Young and Kopp and that’s what counts against us? I’d be much more concerned with how many minutes our transfers played at the other schools (i. e., because they left here much earlier on), or if we could not recruit and needed lots of incoming transfers.

 

[NUCat320]

We get 4 playing years out of Nance and 3 out of Young and Kopp and that’s what counts against us? I’d be much more concerned with how many minutes our transfers played at the other schools (i. e., because they left here much earlier on), or if we could not recruit and needed lots of incoming transfers.

Yes. It’s a bigger loss when program cornerstones leave than when back of the bench guys leave.

It’s a bigger loss when guys who have been loyal decide that the circumstances are such that they can no longer achieve what they thought they could.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

We get 4 playing years out of Nance and 3 out of Young and Kopp and that’s what counts against us? I’d be much more concerned with how many minutes our transfers played at the other schools (i. e., because they left here much earlier on), or if we could not recruit and needed lots of incoming transfers.

Those are reasonable points, but there's really no way to put a positive spin on Miller Kopp's surprise departure. He bailed on the school, the program and the coach. Academically thats a bad move, so he must have been pretty miserable.

Nance can't be blamed - he entered the NBA draft and is doing what is best for him.

Young had every reason to look for a different opportunity. Collins seemed (to me) to undervalue him and under-utilize him. Young knows he is better than Robbie Beran, yet Beran started game after game after game AND played (poorly) in crunch time. So Young got his diploma and left.

The departure rate of key players is being put forward as a proxy for "overall appeal of the basketball program." In my opinion, Northwestern, with its academic prestige, should be a magnet for transfers, with very few players leaving. The exceptions would be the NBA caliber guys, who might be looking for exposure and better teammates / opportunities and use Northwestern as a steppingstone in that regard.

 

[Username Not Available]

I'm not an insider and haven't read that part of the article. I'm curious, though, if they included graduate transfers in their tallies because that seems like an odd choice, but would explain how NU is so high on their list.

If that is what they've done, I'd be curious to see the same list but with graduate transfers removed and see how that plays out.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Yes. It’s a bigger loss when program cornerstones leave than when back of the bench guys leave.

It’s a bigger loss when guys who have been loyal decide that the circumstances are such that they can no longer achieve what they thought they could.

It’s a bigger loss when key players leave the program earlier than later.

And, while of course not ideal, if you think losing 3 players (2 graduates) to Indiana, Duke and UNC after a collective 10 years at NU indicates our coach has lost the players in our program, then I just disagree.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

It’s a bigger loss when key players leave the program earlier than later.

And, while of course not ideal, if you think losing 3 players (2 graduates) to Indiana, Duke and UNC after a collective 10 years at NU indicates our coach has lost the players in our program, then I just disagree.

If we are going back ten years, that list is longer. That list was just the past two years.

 

[NJCat]

If we are going back ten years, that list is longer. That list was just the past two years.

I think the 10 years he referred to was the time the 3 players collectively spent at NU.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

I think the 10 years he referred to was the time the 3 players collectively spent at NU.

Ok, then I disagree. Ten collective years of of commitment is like a couple getting divorced after 50 years of marriage.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Its interesting to me how some people on here will point to generally negative developments and say things like "That doesn't prove the players don't respect the coach."

Of course it doesn't "prove" it, its just an indication. And it is a solid indication.

Collins certainly "lost" Miller Kopp. He most likely "lost" Ryan Young. Depending on how this season plays out, he might lose Roper, Barnhizer or Nicholson.

Guys playing for Northwestern should not be leaving the team, given the relative prestige of the diploma among Power 6 teams... Unless they are dreaming NBA, which is the case with Nance, but even then, we are hoping that situation will improve as the NU program establishes consistent success.

And, of course, the departures of our players to better programs reinforces the belief of several of us that NU's basketball talent is not the problem. Of course it doesn't "prove" it. Just a strong indication.

 

[TheC]

Its interesting to me how some people on here will point to generally negative developments and say things like "That doesn't prove the players don't respect the coach."

Of course it doesn't "prove" it, its just an indication. And it is a solid indication.

Collins certainly "lost" Miller Kopp. He most likely "lost" Ryan Young. Depending on how this season plays out, he might lose Roper, Barnhizer or Nicholson.

Guys playing for Northwestern should not be leaving the team, given the relative prestige of the diploma among Power 6 teams... Unless they are dreaming NBA, which is the case with Nance, but even then, we are hoping that situation will improve as the NU program establishes consistent success.

And, of course, the departures of our players to better programs reinforces the belief of several of us that NU's basketball talent is not the problem. Of course it doesn't "prove" it. Just a strong indication.

I don't think it has to be an indication that he lost the player. I think it may mean the player recognizes NU doesn't have the horses to make the NCAAs, and guys like Young want a shot before they're done. He and Nance are two that I really don't think have to do with the coach.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I don't think it has to be an indication that he lost the player. I think it may mean the player recognizes NU doesn't have the horses to make the NCAAs, and guys like Young want a shot before they're done. He and Nance are two that I really don't think have to do with the coach.

Agreed. And the bigger issue with Kopp was that he did not pan out to be as good as all of the ratings experts and Collins thought. Why do we now even care if he went to Indiana, knowing how he performed?

 

[NUCat320]

I don't think it has to be an indication that he lost the player. I think it may mean the player recognizes NU doesn't have the horses to make the NCAAs, and guys like Young want a shot before they're done. He and Nance are two that I really don't think have to do with the coach.

Not with the coach, but with the program the coach has built. They put in four good years and realized that their goals weren’t attainable.

And Kopp realized that he wasn’t good enough to be The Guy on a team, so he went somewhere he didn’t have to be.

In all three cases, the players made good choices for themselves. Only RY maybe had a problem with how he was used.

But, if you’ve got starters and sixth men leaving the program, committed players who have put in the work and shown to be loyal soldiers, and they simply realize that their goals aren’t achievable, it takes a lot of twisting and turning to point to it as a good thing.

The majority of mid-tier to low-tier programs have contributors who start for 2/3/4 years. At NU, a relatively high percentage of those players choose to leave before 3/4/5.

Adding contributors like Gaines or Benson or Ash here definitely constitutes a trend even if, in all cases, we can understand why they would leave. If NU were succeeding, they wouldn’t *want* to leave.

 

[SDakaGordie]

The program goes well beyond the current coach. My firm has been in business for 75 years and its reputation goes well beyond mine as one of its partners. Collins is our face, but he cannot erase history.

The key question to me is whether we think our coach can lead us to achieve reasonable goals in light of market conditions. Market conditions are that, unfortunately but true, we are an (if not, the most) historic underachieving team in men’s BB. That’s very, very, very hard to overcome. Collins did that, and has shown his record to be as good as Carmody’s (the two best coaches in our history).

Personally, I expect the ups and downs that NU basketball has had under Collins (and Carmody), given the conditions. And this is where people have disagreed with me; they think this means I am ok with his “success” as we have it today. I am not; I want us to do what is right with the goal of doing better. This may be incompatible with our academic and other institutional constraints, but we need to keep pursuing what to do differently.

So, the key question then becomes - do we think Collins has what it takes to get us on a more consistent path to improvement and hopefully influence others at NU to make the right changes to help the BB program succeed?

What I think is his biggest weakness is leadership. I don’t know him or Fitz, but Collins is seemingly not a leader like Fitz. He seems to be friends to his players but not get them to change their behavior as much as is needed. (I am not sure this is 100% true, but I believe it’s his main problem; it is not BB Xs and Os). I also don’t think he has quite enough maturity and leadership ability as yet to influence the NU leaders the way he needs to. But, maturity and professional leadership skills typically take many years to develop. The question for Gragg then becomes - do we think he will ever be this leader? I personally think Gragg rightfully needed more time to determine this. And as the coach who brought us to the Dance, and who is on a recent upward trend, Collins is owed this additional time, in my (oft-stated and supported) opinion. If the trend changes for worse again, however, and Collins does not have an acceptable new plan as to how the program and he need to change/grow, it will be right to make a change.

 

[NJCat]

I also don’t think he has quite enough maturity and leadership ability as yet to influence the NU leaders the way he needs to. But, maturity and professional leadership skills typically take many years to develop. The question for Gragg then becomes - do we think he will ever be this leader?

Very solid argument. I realize age<>maturity, but Collins is actually a year older than Fitz. A 48 year old man is pretty much the finished article, what we have seem in his 9 years at NU is pretty much what we should expect going forward from a leadership perspective.

 

[NUCat320]

I appreciate your efforts, @SDakaGordie , but the history was there when the players committed. They came believing they could break through despite the history, and they left believing they could not.

 

[CappyNU]

Very solid argument. I realize age<>maturity, but Collins is actually a year older than Fitz. A 48 year old man is pretty much the finished article, what we have seem in his 9 years at NU is pretty much what we should expect going forward from a leadership perspective.

I often wonder how much this buddy approach from Collins is affected by his father's reputation for quickly wearing out his welcome wherever he coached?

 

[SDakaGordie]

I appreciate your efforts, @SDakaGordie , but the history was there when the players committed. They came believing they could break through despite the history, and they left believing they could not.

Accurate statement, but the key remaining question is whether that’s a fireable offense. Lots of other college athletes left this way from their program.

 

[NUCat320]

Accurate statement, but the key remaining question is whether that’s a fireable offense. Lots of other college athletes left this way from their program.

The inability to build a program that won, or made strides towards winning, is a fireable offense.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Are minutes lost to transfers, or transfers lost to minutes? We are a mess.

 

[SDakaGordie]

The inability to build a program that won, or made strides towards winning, is a fireable offense.

It’s a bit more complicated and nuanced than this, wouldn’t you agree? Or we should have a program that cycles through coaches as rapidly as possible to find that 80-year elusive winner; that’s the solution?

 

[NUCat320]

It’s a bit more complicated and nuanced than this, wouldn’t you agree? Or we should have a program that cycles through coaches as rapidly as possible to find that 80-year elusive winner; that’s the solution?

At some point, you can no longer take credit for things you accomplished six years ago.

He’s fourth in tenure among B1G coaches, behind Izzo, Painter, and Angry Fran.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I often wonder how much this buddy approach from Collins is affected by his father's reputation for quickly wearing out his welcome wherever he coached?

I'm not convinced that Chris Collins actually tries to befriend his players. His dad was a volatile taskmaster type, with the reputation for taking credit for the wins and blaming the players for the losses.

If I recall correctly, Chris Collins never apologized to anybody, including the players, for getting teed up in that Gonzaga NCAA game. I've really never heard him take the blame when things go poorly, in stark contrast to Fitz, who takes the blame no matter how silly it seems at times. "We need to make more shots" is a pretty common Collins refrain, but it can't improve morale.

The modern coaches have to deal with ever-present cameras and when NU players screw up, Collins is often "caught" being overly dramatic on the sidelines. I don't think that helps either.

I do know that he had the whole team over to his house for Thanksgiving dinner last season. That seems like a nice thing to do.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Agreed. I’ve outlined my opinion on the leash I would give him - need to see if this year is a downer and whether he has any new plans for the future.

 

[PurpleFaze]

Those are reasonable points, but there's really no way to put a positive spin on Miller Kopp's surprise departure. He bailed on the school, the program and the coach. Academically thats a bad move, so he must have been pretty miserable.

Nance can't be blamed - he entered the NBA draft and is doing what is best for him.

Young had every reason to look for a different opportunity. Collins seemed (to me) to undervalue him and under-utilize him. Young knows he is better than Robbie Beran, yet Beran started game after game after game AND played (poorly) in crunch time. So Young got his diploma and left.

The departure rate of key players is being put forward as a proxy for "overall appeal of the basketball program." In my opinion, Northwestern, with its academic prestige, should be a magnet for transfers, with very few players leaving. The exceptions would be the NBA caliber guys, who might be looking for exposure and better teammates / opportunities and use Northwestern as a steppingstone in that regard.

Maybe Kopp just isn’t very smart? Anybody actually sad he left In the big picture?

If he went to Indiana and looked better then that would tell me more about CC and our program. He went to a better basketball school and looked to be the same miserable player he was at NU.

Hated to lose Nance and Young, but they gave a lot to the program. Are we really going to be mad they decided to give a year to Duke and NC? If they had transferred to Nebraska or Iowa State that would have left me wondering, but they didn’t.

It’s time for CC to go, but there are a lot more important reasons for that than Young/Nance looking to have fun and maybe win a title in their final year.

 

[CatJones]

And as the coach who brought us to the Dance, and who is on a recent upward trend

The Dance, yes, the recent upward trend, no

 

[SDakaGordie]

The Dance, yes, the recent upward trend, no

Yes; it came from a low point, but it is a recent upward trend. Fact.

 

[NUCat320]

Yes; it came from a low point, but it is a recent upward trend. Fact.

The upward trend ended with a 112-76 loss in the conference tournament.

 

[SDakaGordie]

The upward trend ended with a 112-76 loss in the conference tournament.

By that measure, every team but Kansas is on a downward trend. I think UNC lost the second half of the final game by at least 25.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

The upward trend ended with a 112-76 loss in the conference tournament.

Someone is cherry-picking the data to a level that would make a political strategist blush.

A simple regression of our Big Ten winning percentage under Collins shows a negative slope.
In other words, the best fit for all the data shows that each year should be worse than the prior year.

Sure, if you want to take the worst season and use that as a starting point, you might be able to convince yourself that the next 2 data points form a "trend" but very few people are going to fall for that.

 

[PurpleFaze]

Ok, then I disagree. Ten collective years of of commitment is like a couple getting divorced after 50 years of marriage.

Not in the current transfer crazy NCAA

 

[NUCat320]

The program goes well beyond the current coach. My firm has been in business for 75 years and its reputation goes well beyond mine as one of its partners. Collins is our face, but he cannot erase history.

The key question to me is whether we think our coach can lead us to achieve reasonable goals in light of market conditions. Market conditions are that, unfortunately but true, we are an (if not, the most) historic underachieving team in men’s BB. That’s very, very, very hard to overcome. Collins did that, and has shown his record to be as good as Carmody’s (the two best coaches in our history).

Personally, I expect the ups and downs that NU basketball has had under Collins (and Carmody), given the conditions. And this is where people have disagreed with me; they think this means I am ok with his “success” as we have it today. I am not; I want us to do what is right with the goal of doing better. This may be incompatible with our academic and other institutional constraints, but we need to keep pursuing what to do differently.

So, the key question then becomes - do we think Collins has what it takes to get us on a more consistent path to improvement and hopefully influence others at NU to make the right changes to help the BB program succeed?

What I think is his biggest weakness is leadership. I don’t know him or Fitz, but Collins is seemingly not a leader like Fitz. He seems to be friends to his players but not get them to change their behavior as much as is needed. (I am not sure this is 100% true, but I believe it’s his main problem; it is not BB Xs and Os). I also don’t think he has quite enough maturity and leadership ability as yet to influence the NU leaders the way he needs to. But, maturity and professional leadership skills typically take many years to develop. The question for Gragg then becomes - do we think he will ever be this leader? I personally think Gragg rightfully needed more time to determine this. And as the coach who brought us to the Dance, and who is on a recent upward trend, Collins is owed this additional time, in my (oft-stated and supported) opinion. If the trend changes for worse again, however, and Collins does not have an acceptable new plan as to how the program and he need to change/grow, it will be right to make a change.

Holy crap, I just read this whole thing.

CCC has been a coach half his life. He had a negligible pro career. He quickly shifted from uniform to suit. He spent 13 years next to Krzyzewski. He grew up around a head coach (a hothead and a weirdo, but a head coach). He’s been a head coach for ten years. He’s as mature as he’s gonna be. He’s not young.

 

[SDakaGordie]

You may be right. He’s got one more year to prove to Gragg that this is not the case; that someone in their late 40s can still learn, grow and mature.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Accurate statement, but the key remaining question is whether that’s a fireable offense. Lots of other college athletes left this way from their program.

Simply put - firable offense is loss of upper trajectory and arguably regressing as a program. Win more or move to find the next bridge. BC brought us up, CCC added to the growth - time to find the next puzzle piece.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

It’s a bit more complicated and nuanced than this, wouldn’t you agree? Or we should have a program that cycles through coaches as rapidly as possible to find that 80-year elusive winner; that’s the solution?

Maybe. We don’t know the ultimate solution as we haven’t found it yet. Trials continue. More importantly, these days, money talks. Keep losing and watch the interest, fans, recruits drift away. We are already hot on a D2 level recruit that had real impressive offers.

If some dumb AD isn’t bright enough to figure out the spending millions on a losing program isn’t the way to do it, I expect the AD will be gone soon too. And find another AD gig hard to come by.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Not in the current transfer crazy NCAA

Agree to disagree - I don’t believe NU pulls the ‘normal’ recruits.