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Most likely record in next 2 games

T

TomTraubertsBlues

All-American
Oct 13, 2014
4,779
7,951
113
i know Gonzaga game is in Seattle, but come on it's a home game for them. So, we play two road games against good teams. Of the three possibilities 0-2, 2-0 and 1-1, which is the. most likely?

I'm going 1-1, with 0-2 close behind. I think it is very unilkely we go 2-0. Would LOVE to be wrong, but I think we will find out some of our weaker areas and that is a good thing in the end.
 
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U

UKDemarcusWall

Senior
Feb 3, 2019
283
633
2
First true road test against a good team in Clemson (kenpom #25), and essentially a second road test against a great team in Gonzaga (kenpom #3 . Duke game had majority UK fans so will be interesting to see how this team reacts to hostile environments against quality opponents. I'd say 1-1 but can definitely see 0-2.
 
J

JonathanW_rivals

Heisman
Jan 3, 2003
145,534
15,709
0
As a Statistician, I think in terms of probabilities. Now the easiest calculation comes from assuming one outcome does not affect the other (independent events). Of course the Gonzaga outcome can't affect the Clemson outcome, but the opposite can't be said. However, to keep this simple we will assume independence (Clemson outcome doesn't affect Gonzaga outcome).

In my estimation, I give us a 70% chance to win at Clemson, and a 40% chance to win in Seattle (not technically at Gonzaga).
So assuming independence, that means we have a 28% chance to win both (2-0), a 18% chance to lose both (0-2), and thus a 54% chance to split them (1-1).
 
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V

vanillaslice_rivals204083

Freshman
May 10, 2002
157
74
28
JonathanW said:
As a Statistician, I think in terms of probabilities. Now the easiest calculation comes from assuming one outcome does not affect the other (independent events). Of course the Gonzaga outcome can't affect the Clemson outcome, but the opposite can't be said. However, to keep this simple we will assume independence (Clemson outcome doesn't affect Gonzaga outcome).

In my estimation, I give us a 70% chance to win at Clemson, and a 40% chance to win in Seattle (not technically at Gonzaga).
So assuming independence, that means we have a 28% chance to win both (2-0), a 18% chance to lose both (0-2), and thus a 54% chance to split them (1-1).
Click to expand...
Nerd :p
 
B

Blueisbest

All-American
Mar 22, 2003
24,628
5,325
0
While I would love to be 2-0, and it is possible, more than likely we will go 1-1.
 
*Fox2Monk*

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
43,111
76,806
113
silentsaregolden2.0 said:
i know Gonzaga game is in Seattle, but come on it's a home game for them. So, we play two road games against good teams. Of the three possibilities 0-2, 2-0 and 1-1, which is the. most likely?

I'm going 1-1, with 0-2 close behind. I think it is very unilkely we go 2-0. Would LOVE to be wrong, but I think we will find out some of our weaker areas and that is a good thing in the end.
Click to expand...
I say 1-1 with a decent chance at 2-0. I’d be shocked if we drop both.
 
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P

Panthur

Heisman
Aug 5, 2008
9,225
12,780
0
I think we go 2–0.

I think it will be hard AF.

But I think we go 2–0.

 
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H

HerrosHeroes

Heisman
Aug 16, 2018
27,234
38,039
0
2-0
We are the best team in the country and its not close.
Ofcourse I said that in the preseason and was mocked and scorned.
But I believe it anyway.
 
TheDude73

TheDude73

Heisman
Jan 7, 2006
23,935
23,107
113
312CAT said:
First true road test against a good team in Clemson (kenpom #25), and essentially a second road test against a great team in Gonzaga (kenpom #3 . Duke game had majority UK fans so will be interesting to see how this team reacts to hostile environments against quality opponents. I'd say 1-1 but can definitely see 0-2.
Click to expand...
You may be surprised as to how many UK fans show up at Clemson tomorrow night. And the Gonzaga game is in Seattle which is 4+ hours from Spokane, so not as bad as being AT Gonzaga (and again I think you'll see a few more UK fans in Seattle than if the game were at Gonzaga).

Cats win both by somewhere in the 8-15 pt range, and I think Clemson will bring the WKU/GSU defensive / physical heat. Gonzaga will just try to run and gun with us, so that should be an exciting matchup.
 
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MegaBlue05

MegaBlue05

Heisman
Mar 8, 2014
10,313
19,651
66
Expecting 1-1, would be thrilled at 2-0. I can live with 0-2 if it’s two competitive games decided at the very end. I just don’t want to see any blowouts with us on the wrong end.

I’m also more worried about Clemson than Gonzaga even though Gonzaga is the better team. UK historically doesn’t do well in its first true road game. Since the 1993-94 season, the Cats are 13-17 in our first true road games with Pitino, Smith, Drunky McGhee and Cal at the helm.
 
LineSkiCat14

LineSkiCat14

Heisman
Aug 5, 2015
38,342
59,979
113
If you're being honest, 1-1 is probably most likely. These are both gonna be Q1 games (high ones at that) and this team is still figuring things out and gelling.

We commit too many fouls and miss too many FTs to assume 2-0. Honestly I think 0-2 is more likely than 2-0.
 
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W

wardlow

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2018
840
2,079
0
MegaBlue05 said:
Expecting 1-1, would be thrilled at 2-0. I can live with 0-2 if it’s two competitive games decided at the very end. I just don’t want to see any blowouts with us on the wrong end.

I’m also more worried about Clemson than Gonzaga even though Gonzaga is the better team. UK historically doesn’t do well in its first true road game. Since the 1993-94 season, the Cats are 13-17 in our first true road games with Pitino, Smith, Drunky McGhee and Cal at the helm.
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I’m interested to see how much the collective experience helps. Didn’t a lot of Cal’s teams drop that game, albeit starting 4 freshman? Hard game to win.
 
B

BigBlueFanGA

Heisman
Jun 14, 2005
26,435
23,456
0
MegaBlue05 said:
Expecting 1-1, would be thrilled at 2-0. I can live with 0-2 if it’s two competitive games decided at the very end. I just don’t want to see any blowouts with us on the wrong end.

I’m also more worried about Clemson than Gonzaga even though Gonzaga is the better team. UK historically doesn’t do well in its first true road game. Since the 1993-94 season, the Cats are 13-17 in our first true road games with Pitino, Smith, Drunky McGhee and Cal at the helm.
Click to expand...
History has zero to do with this years team.
 
F

fredmanthecatfan

All-Conference
Apr 23, 2002
17,558
3,297
0
I did the Steiner math, and based on that, we will go 5-0 in our next two games.
Holler if ya hear me!
 
Son_Of_Saul

Son_Of_Saul

Heisman
Dec 7, 2007
44,471
94,864
113
LineSkiCat14 said:
If you're being honest, 1-1 is probably most likely. These are both gonna be Q1 games (high ones at that) and this team is still figuring things out and gelling.

We commit too many fouls and miss too many FTs to assume 2-0. Honestly I think 0-2 is more likely than 2-0.
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UK has shot about 27 to 28% from three in its last two games. I don't think that slump continues. UK is due for a rise in solid shooting from three. If UK shoots close to its average, they beat Clemson by 6 to 8 points and they beat Gonzaga by 3 to 4 points.
 
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C

Catzman

Heisman
Apr 29, 2002
16,875
13,201
113
If Butler can control Nemrod, we win against Gonzaga. He leads the nation in assists, over 10.0 apg. He is the head-cut it off-and we win. 2-0 for the week, and as someone above said, # 3 in the next polls. And yes, I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express!
 
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MegaBlue05

MegaBlue05

Heisman
Mar 8, 2014
10,313
19,651
66
wardlow said:
I’m interested to see how much the collective experience helps. Didn’t a lot of Cal’s teams drop that game, albeit starting 4 freshman? Hard game to win.
Click to expand...

Cal was definitely our worst coach about that over that stretch, but there were a few others that surprised me.

Pitino lost his first true road game in 94 and 95.
Tubby lost his first true road game 99, 00, 01, 02, 05, 07. He got off easy in 2006. First road game was at Georgia State.
Clyde lost both.
Cal lost 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, 21, 22 and 23
 
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LineSkiCat14

LineSkiCat14

Heisman
Aug 5, 2015
38,342
59,979
113
Son_Of_Saul said:
UK has shot about 27 to 28% from three in its last two games. I don't think that slump continues. UK is due for a rise in solid shooting from three. If UK shoots close to its average, they beat Clemson by 6 to 8 points and they beat Gonzaga by 3 to 4 points.
Click to expand...

We probably won't be that bad.. but these are still top25ish teams, so I don't expect UK to shoot at its average. Tough road environment, quality teams.. I'd be thrilled if we were within 5 percentage points of our averages.
 
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MegaBlue05

MegaBlue05

Heisman
Mar 8, 2014
10,313
19,651
66
BigBlueFanGA said:
History has zero to do with this years team.
Click to expand...

That's true, but this team and future Pope teams are becoming a part of our history and carving out thier own era of UK basketball.

History shows this is a tough game and one we lose more often than not over the last 30 years and four coaches. I hope Coach Pope goes undefeated in every one of his first true road games.
 
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K

KY_First

Sophomore
Jul 22, 2022
129
191
0
silentsaregolden2.0 said:
i know Gonzaga game is in Seattle, but come on it's a home game for them. So, we play two road games against good teams. Of the three possibilities 0-2, 2-0 and 1-1, which is the. most likely?

I'm going 1-1, with 0-2 close behind. I think it is very unilkely we go 2-0. Would LOVE to be wrong, but I think we will find out some of our weaker areas and that is a good thing in the end.
Click to expand...
You gotta pick one lol. I’m going 2-0
 
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