MVAC Write Up

[Slasher Killer]

Had a harder time with this one hence the split in time between posting.. this conference was thankfully more harder to pick and more interesting. 2 teams were just hard to figure out so I winged it and went with what I think will happen.

Again these are just educated guesses best off what I've seen and read on Max Preps. I'm not a psychic nor do I have the Football gods on speed-dial (that would be amazing however.) If your offended about it.. well that's just tough.

I'm gonna post them like last time separate with colored titles.. makes it look better.

 

[Slasher Killer]

Ashe County:


Strengths:


-Solid Junior Class

-In particular RB and D players

-Solid Coaching Staff




Weaknesses:

-Younger Line

-Graduated Quite a few Seniors

-QB needs varsity experience




SOS:


Challenging but not the #1 hardest anymore.. West Caldwell falling apart has evened their schedule out to being more decent.. that being said Watauga and Hibriten’s killer and very impossible for most teams to handle around here.




My Thoughts:


The Huskies are a lot of people's favorites and I can't really disagree with that. However there are some things they gotta fix before I declare them 100% the faves. The main thing will be the fact that their younger kids need grow up in a hurry. They have one starter game vs Avery in which they can afford to have their growing pains but Watauga and Hibriten happen really early on and they always like to feast on other team’s faults quite easily. As for the defense it has to stay consistent on the gains they made last year as they had Hampton’s best defense in his run there at Ashe. I was very much impressed the other day with the secondary’s defensive instincts as that’s not teachable. That’s a major plus for them to grow on. They might not have the traditional Ashe size but when you play that hard on D good things can happen.

That being said I think the inhouse talent is there.. that RB is very good and they have a great skill player core. Not the fastest in the world but they know the system and will fight hard for yards If the line can grow thru the year and stay healthy I see them improving and playing everyone hard. 2020 could be an all time great year for them, but 2019’s looking good too.

 

[Slasher Killer]

Starmount:



Strengths:

-Returning seniors are really good with some big time experience.

-JV Champs in 2018; dominated JV conference

-Grinton’s coaching.





Weaknesses:

-Not the fastest Starmount squad.

-Will be younger in a few spots.











SOS:

Challenging but more level. Dropped West Stokes for McMichael and keeping Forbush on will have them potentially going .500 into conference and that’s huge as they haven’t done it in a few years.









Thoughts:


Starmount's grown on me quite a bit lately looking at their returners. They bring quite a few kids back so I don't expect much dropoff. They have some solid JV kids coming up with a offseason more in the weightroom so they will be improved. Their schedule isn’t murder’s row anymore which for a team trying to refind their consistency that’s the best thing for them. With McMichael on the schedule I expect them to win at least 1 game worst case, possibly 2 or even 3 off the bat then they can hit the conference play with momentum. If they do that I see them being hard to stop for most teams. The offense really started figuring the spread out by the end of conference play and was clicking. I expect that to come earlier this year baring a 2nd year slump. Defense however has got to grow through the year as does the line.. that will make or break the Rams this year. But with potentially 2-4 wins off the bat the Rams could have momentum on their side for the first time in a while entering conference play. They may be hard to stop then.

 

[Slasher Killer]

Wilkes Central:


Strengths:

-Have the most athletes out of any school.

-Returning Morrison who's their most explosive player as a junior.

-Coaching staff is experienced

-More Returning older-classman.






Weaknesses:

-Defense went down a ton last year, gotta get better.

-Lack of physicality's always a concern.

-Morrison can't play everything, needs to stay in 1 spot.

-Kids haven't played together yet.







SOS:

Hardest in MVAC in my opinion. Besides Surry Central there’s no easy wins here. North Iredell’s improved a ton thanks to better talent than the last few years and some solid coaching, they are playing a lot of 2A schools for wins. Watauga’s a yearly contender and Alexander Central’s the new dog looking to establish itself. WC’s gonna have to take quite a few chin shots this year and make it thru it.









My Thoughts:

WC is always a pick to be near the top but they have their issues to fix. Mainly the defense has got to improve as it killed them in quite a few close games last year. The North Iredell and Elkin games were 2 that WC shoulda won, they let them slip from their hands as they were outhit and outplayed. WC being older I think will help with that but they still got a ways to grow. If they make it out of non-conference with a win they are doing good, 2 is ahead of the curve. If they find their mental edge again they should be quite good.. their athletes alone are enough to dominate the lower end schools in the conference.. but is that enough to be a top team?

 

[Slasher Killer]

Elkin:



Strengths:

-Junior class is what they are.

-Speed in some skill spots.

-Line has size







Weaknesses:

-The Pass in general is a trouble spot.

-#'s aren't great, especially in middle school. Eventually they will feel it hard.

-Secondary's going to be young.




SOS:


Weak. I’m surprised Wood didn't schedule 2 harder games to go with the NS and MA games but maybe he knows something. They should roll over Central and South Stokes but if they don’t then it may be a sign they are in for some trouble.









Thoughts:

The Buckin' Elks had a weird 2018. Started off great for Elkin (2-0,) things were looking good for them, but then MA just decimated them the third week and things were never right. They managed a 2nd round win thanks to a lucky playoff draw but their conference performance wasn’t what they coulda done. JV wise they had a horrific year which I didn't expect after 2018. Hard to say how this year will go.. I think they will be neck and neck with Starmount for the best 1A team in the conference but unless they figure the pass out and get their offense more than just a run based set I don't see much happening. Defense will be younger this year especially in the secondary as they had a lot of younger kids last month when I seen them. Lineplay should be decent.. offense will be stronger running the ball.

Their start’s gonna be key for them. If they don’t beat Central by more than 2-3 TD’s then they will be in for a different year than everyone expects. If they do like the last 2 years they will be fine. Central’s going to be better than the past 2 years so I expect that to be a test for Elkin. The NS game as well. If they can have 2 wins by the Starmount game they will be fine if not then that game could define the season. A loss could put them in a hole they can never recover from.

 

[Slasher Killer]

North Wilkes:


Strengths:

-One of the better QB's in the area returns.

-If MP is right.. largest senior class I’ve ever seen for an area school in a long time.

-Size.





Weaknesses:

-Lack of a killer athlete or two.

-Defense is always a minus.

-Very low #'s on JV in 2018. Junior class is also DIRELY low






SOS:

A Step up.. last 2 years their non conference slate was one of the worst in the area but Chipman decided to be courageous and schedule some athletic teams to see how it goes and they dumped Forbush after a solid back and forth series. They open with a tough go vs North Forsyth who I see out athleting them across the board, might be a rough night. Then comes West Caldwell the next week, who despite being in a mess will return a legend of a HC and some solid athletes, I wouldn't label NW the runaway faves. Week 3 is an improved North Iredell team and week 4 will be Avery, who NW choked to in 2016 from a better season and playoff spot.

Weeks 1 and 3 I see being tough for the Vikes, 2 could be a potential win, 4 I label NW the faves. First time in a few years they might not will have a pure winning record when they hit conference play but that's a good thing they will be battle prepped.






My Thoughts:

NW I think has potential to be an annoyance and maybe spoiler this year. They have a killer offense with a solid QB coming back which I see giving people fits but they gotta find another dimension and find ways to use the QB not so much. Defense has got to become competent which is something they have never done under Chipman. Last year's was as bad as the 2014 0-11 teams defense, as they hated being hit and their pass defense was non existent. If you could pass a ball or do a RPO offense then NW would be in trouble. A focus on defense may do them some good this year.. they have got to rely on it the first 4 games or else they may have a rough start.

If NW could do better in several ways they could have a solid year. They have too many seniors to be mediocre.

 

[Slasher Killer]

Alleghany:


Strengths:

-Returns almost all of the 2018 skill players. QB is great in the option.

-Very solid sophomore class (one of Alleghany's best in a while,) 3rd place in 2018 JV ball behind two solid teams.

-Offense is custom built for them and they run it well.



Weaknesses:


-Lost almost all of their line from last year.. in those spots they return very little varsity experience.

-Defense will be very young. Defense was their main + last year as not many teams scored more than 28 points, very good for them. This year they lose a lot of experience.









SOS:


Challenging. Lyon has a lot of courage scheduling North Surry and Mount Airy to replace North and South Stokes and Walkertown to replace Bishop.. however the schedule is quite a death wish for the Trojans with so much youth and question marks.





My Thoughts:

Lyon has done a great job pretty much rebuilding the program from the bottom up following the last two years of Sessoms. Last year’s team was a surprise but a welcome one for Sparta as both teams were quite competitive and played everyone in the conference hard. That being said this year could be a lot different as the varsity loses a lot of experience but the new blood on the rise has quite a bit of potential.. if Lyon keeps these kids focused and lifting in the offseason I see 2020 and 2021 being fun for them in small 1A ball.

This year I see being a growth year for them if the line takes a bit to get going. The returning skill players on both sides of the ball will very much be their main strength as they return a very good option QB and some hard runners on the offensive side, D wise will be critical for their chances as that was where they were best on last year. If their defensive backs have a hard time adjusting vs the pass it could be a rough start to the year. But they should be fine come conference time.

I wouldn’t sleep on the Trojans at all.. they have the offense to drive people crazy.

 

[Slasher Killer]

East Wilkes:


Strengths:

-Solid freshman class incoming.

-Size.



Weaknesses:


-Very, very young (only 9 upperclassman listed so far,)

-Lots of turnover

-Depth issues especially on JV.





SOS:

Meh but good for them this year. There is very little change they still have 3 hard opening games but Walkertown's replaced with WS Prep, and that's a needed step for East as WSP is more to their level. All 4 games will test EW in different ways. Pilot Cards will be their toughest test, Central will test their defense and instincts, ‘Bush will test their physicality, and Prep will test them vs speed.




My Thoughts:

It’s so sad seeing East drop so much in just a short time.. gotta love the randomness of small 1A ball. It does make me wonder what would have happened if Adkins had stayed, would these numbers woes be a thing? Regardless Wilmoth has quite a test on him this year unless they all of a sudden gain more kids. He’s got to make the most of the experience with what they have. Max Preps only has 10 upperclassmen on the roster, not good. Granted I know someone on their staff and he did indicate their #’s are better than that but I could never get an exact number. I expect more.. at least I hope so.

They will have another really solid freshman class but it’s hard to say if they will be allowed to play down or not this year.. that’s sad. If they do play down I think they will be the favorites for the JV title but if not then I see their JV’s folding if they don’t have enough 10th graders. That’s a thing that’s really hitting the Ronda Cards hard.. it was bound to happen to one of that area’s schools it looks like they have it at the moment.

How their year will go depends on how the kids mengle. If the seniors do a really good job stepping up and leading the youngins I see their year better but if not then I see them taking some lumps and improving thru the year. In 2-3 years I see the Ronda Cards back to being theirselves again once the freshman class comes of age.

 

[Slasher Killer]

West Wilkes


Strengths:

-New HC should boost optimism.

-West always has size; no exception this yea.

-Hard playing kids.







Weaknesses:

-No quality athletes; best player transferred out.

-Slow

-Defense has been bad both levels the past 2 years.







SOS:

Weak.. for their benefit though because they need all the breaks they can get.






My Thoughts:


West is in a real rough spot and will be rebuilding thru a nuked landscape. Hunt's run came to an unceremonious end and the new guy has got to pick up the pieces. He took the job after a long period.. either they had a hard time choosing or there was no interest. Hard to believe WW’s is in such shape.. they were always one of the more stable programs when I grew up thru when I played. When you wanted to learn how to make consistent teams you would look at West thru the previous 4 coaches.. their hard charging quality years outdid the crap. Sadly the latter’s taken over the team spirit and they are down to low depths.

The new HC has got to be willing to be tied to the whipping post as he has a lot to fix in a short time. He has got to surgically repair a lot of rough spots. Firstly the programs a drama pit, secondly the best player left, and third he has to get the remaining kids believing again.. not an easy task however he seems confident. It's gonna take a few years but if he can grow the #'s, gain in wins every year, and get a solid class or 2 he can do it. West always seems to have a good team every few years.. they are about due. Not this year though, but there's nowhere they can go but up.

 

[Slasher Killer]

Expected Wins:



Ashe (between 7-9 wins. )

Starmount ( between 6-9 wins baring an upset win week 1 or 2.)

Wilkes Central (between 6-8 wins. If non con wasn’t so hard they’d win 8 for sure easily.)

Elkin (between 5-7 wins.. hard to rate them at the moment.)

North Wilkes (between 5-7 wins.. lean 5-6. 2 hard non conference games will be hard to pick.)

Alleghany (between 3-5 wins. Really hard non con slate hurts their potential.)

East Wilkes (between 2-5 wins. Hard to determine path for this team)

West Wilkes (between 1-4 wins.. anything else would be a surprise.)

 

[Slasher Killer]

That's it.. I'm not going to do the WPAC largely due to so many unknowns from the Forsyth teams. Plus I don't want to be a jinx.

I'll be back sometime this or next with my first power poll and then when week 1 hits the usual..

Hope everyone has a great opening day!

 

[KW2346]

Great work slash....I especially like how u predict how teams will look in future years.

 

[Sportsnut17]

Great job!! Go ahead make that stab at the WPAC. Bet you not far from wrong.

 

[Illuminati704]

Good break down Slash. I think the top 3 are interchangeable. I think Elkin is solidified in the 4th spot. Then 5-8 are interchangeable as well. Should be an interesting year.

 

[TD-FridayNight]

Great work and has to be very time-consuming with a lot of research. We do appreciate your work.

 

[Slasher Killer]

Great job!! Go ahead make that stab at the WPAC. Bet you not far from wrong.

Hmm just for you I'll consider it. The Forsyth schools are so out of the loop it's hard to say how they will go but I already did a early write up in April. I'll just make some tweeks and see what I think.

I'll for sure be back with the power poll.

 

[Slasher Killer]

Great work slash....I especially like how u predict how teams will look in future years.

Thanks man. People laugh at me all the time but really JV play means a ton in the grand scale of things. Not always 100% but a good 70% of the time if a school has a great JV team they will be competitive on varsity if they keep it together. I always take that into account when creating my guesses. It's not always easy to say but most of the time people find it out lol.

 

[Slasher Killer]

Good break down Slash. I think the top 3 are interchangeable. I think Elkin is solidified in the 4th spot. Then 5-8 are interchangeable as well. Should be an interesting year.

Thanks buddy.

4 down right now looks really fun.. it could be 3 if WC has a harder time then I think (right now I see them being better though,) Elkin and North Wilkes coulda be a doozie in the finale for that 4th spot. Alleghany and East Wilkes could be better than I think as well, the former more than the latter just off my instinct. But hey anything's possible in the MVAC.. it's what makes it fun.

 

[Slasher Killer]

Great work and has to be very time-consuming with a lot of research. We do appreciate your work.

Thanks man.. if it wasn't for my work I woulda got this done a lot earlier. I wanted to Ashe in case too, that helped quite a bit.

It wasn't a bother though I love this stuff lol.

 

[DKatt]

Nice job, thanks.

 

[Realfreedom]

Really enjoyed reading this post and must say I agree. I think Ashe and WC will do well, but think the Rams and Elks could challenge. I too am down on East Wilkes, but who knows. I have heard some guy's are back that did not play last year and that could help. East has a solid QB a solid backfield, but you have to have some big uglies down in the trenches.

Here is to a safe football season. Best of luck to everyone, except the Elks. Lol

 

[Thunder_struck8712]

Really enjoyed reading this post and must say I agree. I think Ashe and WC will do well, but think the Rams and Elks could challenge. I too am down on East Wilkes, but who knows. I have heard some guy's are back that did not play last year and that could help. East has a solid QB a solid backfield, but you have to have some big uglies down in the trenches.

Here is to a safe football season. Best of luck to everyone, except the Elks. Lol

I think East is going to struggle at times. They have a few athletes but that doesn't matter if you don't have solid line play and a good defense. The defense seems to have been their weakness the last several years since they had that really good one in what 2015? They'll out athlete some teams like West, North, and Surry Central and probably beat WSP. They'll have a shot at Forbush and Alleghany could be a great game but that could be all she wrote for them this year. I think Ashe will be the class of the MVAC and Central and Starmount will fight for #2 with Elkin in behind.

 

[Illuminati704]

I think East is going to struggle at times. They have a few athletes but that doesn't matter if you don't have solid line play and a good defense. The defense seems to have been their weakness the last several years since they had that really good one in what 2015? They'll out athlete some teams like West, North, and Surry Central and probably beat WSP. They'll have a shot at Forbush and Alleghany could be a great game but that could be all she wrote for them this year. I think Ashe will be the class of the MVAC and Central and Starmount will fight for #2 with Elkin in behind.

How is W Central looking? Haven’t heard much out of them? I hear Ashe looks pretty solid. But I’m interested to know if WC will be improved from the disappointment of last season.

 

[Thunder_struck8712]

How is W Central looking? Haven’t heard much out of them? I hear Ashe looks pretty solid. But I’m interested to know if WC will be improved from the disappointment of last season.

I really don't know to be honest. I've heard they have looked good thus far. Very athletic as usual and probably the best running back in the conference. Athletes all over the field.

 

[Deana_King_rivals106402]

Numbers very low for a school like WC is what I’m hearing.

 

[Thunder_struck8712]

Numbers very low for a school like WC is what I’m hearing.

I think numbers are down several places in the area.

 

[Slasher Killer]

I think numbers are down several places in the area.

Yeah this pretty much. It seems like the low numbers factors hitting a lot of schools this year.

Seen South Stokes at their scrimmage I only counted 22 in the clip I seen of them. Surry Central only has 21 on their max preps page, sad. All three Wilkes schools except Central last year barely had over 20 kids (East only had 15.)

It stinks to see but it's the reality but props to the schools for trying to overcome it.

 

[Slasher Killer]

I think East is going to struggle at times. They have a few athletes but that doesn't matter if you don't have solid line play and a good defense. The defense seems to have been their weakness the last several years since they had that really good one in what 2015? They'll out athlete some teams like West, North, and Surry Central and probably beat WSP. They'll have a shot at Forbush and Alleghany could be a great game but that could be all she wrote for them this year. I think Ashe will be the class of the MVAC and Central and Starmount will fight for #2 with Elkin in behind.

East looks to be much older than what many thought in the summer, that's a good sign. They got 30 and only 3 of them are JV age, that's a great sign. As long as they stay healthy and don't have to move any kids up they will be fine. It will benefit both levels if they leave the kids down.

The SC, Forbush, and WSP games will determine their season. ES won't prove much of anything as they are miles ahead of them, those other 3 mean the world because they show how EW can compete with the rest of the conference. SC's the tricky run team, Forbush is the smash mouth run team, and WSP's the spread and athletes galore team. I wouldn't call any of those easy wins they are gonna have to fight for them. I'd put them over SC right now though, SC didn't look that impressive when I seen them not long ago. The WSP is the most interesting game as WSP has the speed edge.. that might be what determines the whole deal. If East can't stop the speed they won't be able to handle any of the big 4/5 in MVAC. I can no longer say they will have a 2 win year now.. they will be a hard playing mid tier 1A team. But they gotta keep the pieces together.

How's the JV's looking? I expect them to be more competitive this year with those 9th graders.

 

[Sportsnut17]

Yeah this pretty much. It seems like the low numbers factors hitting a lot of schools this year.

Seen South Stokes at their scrimmage I only counted 22 in the clip I seen of them. Surry Central only has 21 on their max preps page, sad. All three Wilkes schools except Central last year barely had over 20 kids (East only had 15.)

It stinks to see but it's the reality but props to the schools for trying to overcome it.

What happened to that 60 plus that south supposedly had out?