Things really haven’t changed much in the past week.
We are #25 in RPI. But there’s a lot that can be inferred to indicate that doesn’t mean much. The below scenarios refer to overall resume rank (not just RPI), but use RPI as an initial baseline to set the pecking order before diving deeper.
First and foremost, we have 4 teams ahead of us in the RPI who are SEC teams that are guaranteed to not host. USC, Bama, LSU, Vandy. If their SEC record wasn’t bad enough at 13-17, we also have head-to-head over all of them except USC, who we didn’t play. Overall resume wise, puts us at #21 when you just exclude those teams….worst case.
Next, let’s look at the North Carolina problem. First, they aren’t going to give 3 regionals to the Raleigh-Durham area when 2 of the teams are back of the RPI pack for consideration. UNC is a lock, but my prediction is that Duke and NCSU will not both host. My money is on Duke with their much higher overall win total, and the ACC conference tourney title. Next part of the problem is Wake Forest. High RPI and Top 10 SOS, but 15-15 in league play and didn’t do anything special in the conference tourney. Don’t think they make it. Next part is ECU. Not in the worst shape, but RPI tumbled late in the year and they play in a terrible league. Put all that together, I’m predicting no more than 3 North Carolina teams get regionals. Might only be 2. Let’s assume 3 as that would be worse for us. Still bumps us up to #19. I’d personally put our resume below Duke and UNC but above the other 3 teams, but this is a worst-case scenario.
Next, lets look out west. Nobody super impressive out there. UCSB will host. Oregon State is out of the Top 16, but I think they still host also. San Diego is a late arrival into the RPI Top 20, I think they have no chance. Geography comes into play here, too. They aren’t going to have 3 regionals way out West when there is only 1 bona fide host school. I’d put our resume above all 3 teams in consideration here, but lets pretend the committee picks 2 of the 3 to still host. That bumps us to #18 at worst.
Finally, lets look at the hosting locks. I think the entire top 14 in RPI is a lock to host EXCEPT Wake Forest, who I think will not. That’s 13 teams.
3 spots left. Competing for those 3 spots are NCSU, Duke, MSU, ECU, Oregon State, and Dallas Baptist. Give 1 spot to NCSU or Duke, and throw the other out. Probably give another spot to Oregon State. That leaves us, ECU, and Dallas Baptist battling for the final bid. MSU has 2 more Quad 1 wins than ECU and DBU have…..combined. So I think its not really a hard decision at all, but the committee can defend it if they don’t want to take us with the Quad 4 losses side of things.
I think we host.
We are #25 in RPI. But there’s a lot that can be inferred to indicate that doesn’t mean much. The below scenarios refer to overall resume rank (not just RPI), but use RPI as an initial baseline to set the pecking order before diving deeper.
First and foremost, we have 4 teams ahead of us in the RPI who are SEC teams that are guaranteed to not host. USC, Bama, LSU, Vandy. If their SEC record wasn’t bad enough at 13-17, we also have head-to-head over all of them except USC, who we didn’t play. Overall resume wise, puts us at #21 when you just exclude those teams….worst case.
Next, let’s look at the North Carolina problem. First, they aren’t going to give 3 regionals to the Raleigh-Durham area when 2 of the teams are back of the RPI pack for consideration. UNC is a lock, but my prediction is that Duke and NCSU will not both host. My money is on Duke with their much higher overall win total, and the ACC conference tourney title. Next part of the problem is Wake Forest. High RPI and Top 10 SOS, but 15-15 in league play and didn’t do anything special in the conference tourney. Don’t think they make it. Next part is ECU. Not in the worst shape, but RPI tumbled late in the year and they play in a terrible league. Put all that together, I’m predicting no more than 3 North Carolina teams get regionals. Might only be 2. Let’s assume 3 as that would be worse for us. Still bumps us up to #19. I’d personally put our resume below Duke and UNC but above the other 3 teams, but this is a worst-case scenario.
Next, lets look out west. Nobody super impressive out there. UCSB will host. Oregon State is out of the Top 16, but I think they still host also. San Diego is a late arrival into the RPI Top 20, I think they have no chance. Geography comes into play here, too. They aren’t going to have 3 regionals way out West when there is only 1 bona fide host school. I’d put our resume above all 3 teams in consideration here, but lets pretend the committee picks 2 of the 3 to still host. That bumps us to #18 at worst.
Finally, lets look at the hosting locks. I think the entire top 14 in RPI is a lock to host EXCEPT Wake Forest, who I think will not. That’s 13 teams.
3 spots left. Competing for those 3 spots are NCSU, Duke, MSU, ECU, Oregon State, and Dallas Baptist. Give 1 spot to NCSU or Duke, and throw the other out. Probably give another spot to Oregon State. That leaves us, ECU, and Dallas Baptist battling for the final bid. MSU has 2 more Quad 1 wins than ECU and DBU have…..combined. So I think its not really a hard decision at all, but the committee can defend it if they don’t want to take us with the Quad 4 losses side of things.
I think we host.
