My take after two conference games is

[NUera]

The phrase that comes to mind in watching the game and reading this thread is “opportunity cost.” OK, I get it. Coach Collins wants Buie and Audige to be aggressive. But, the reality is that from beyond the arc, Chase is 2/17 (.118) and Boo is 20/67 (.299). Meanwhile, Ryan G. is 7/15, Pete is 12/30 and Ty is 24/52 (Are you kidding me??). Work the offense. Give our team the chance to get an open look. The shots that leave us all flummoxed could be had at any point in the shot clock.

Cue people saying “you older guys don’t get it — it’s a new era of basketball and as long as they shoot 35% it makes sense.” Well, they don’t shoot that percentage, and the forced takes and deep, deep threes continue to play like turnovers for us. I’m still bullish on this team but we need to wake up and maximize our possessions.

 

[hoosboot]

Cue people saying “you older guys don’t get it — it’s a new era of basketball and as long as they shoot 35% it makes sense.” Well, they don’t shoot that percentage, and the forced takes and deep, deep threes continue to play like turnovers for us. I’m still bullish on this team but we need to wake up and maximize our possessions.

Yeah, offensive efficiency is a big problem for this team. 13, 13, and 14 shots to score 13, 12, and 12 points is REALLY not good.

 

[Sec_112]

... Meanwhile, Ryan G. is 7/15, Pete is 12/30 and Ty is 24/52 (Are you kidding me??). Work the offense. Give our team the chance to get an open look.

This plays a bit to my earlier point. I agree the offense needs to be worked more. Better off-the-ball movement. Quicker passes. Enough of the two-man Pete and Boo Show on the arc. That's good for three or four bad possessions per game.

But that's not what they do ... for whatever reason.

However, if Boo and Audige don't shoot, who will keep defenses honest on the three? Pete has no problem launching his bad missiles from there so that's not an alternative.

Greer doesn't have enough confidence in his shot to be consistent out there. He barely shoots them when he's open. And unfortunately Berry is mysteriously in foul trouble too often to be in the game enough to be another threat (Does he quietly whine to refs?)

As an aside, I'm pretty sure Boo was taken out at the midpoint in the second half when he didn't run the offense, and he and Nance dicked around a two-man game, trying to get an open shot.

 

[Smolmania]

Hummel is refreshingly honest in his analysis which makes him probably my favorite BTN coverage guy.

I thought he did a very nice job on the Bulls' game over the weekend. He may not be long for the BTN.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Yeah, offensive efficiency is a big problem for this team. 13, 13, and 14 shots to score 13, 12, and 12 points is REALLY not good.

Points per field goal attempt is the better metric, in my opinion.
You should score about the same number of points from the floor as the number of shots attempted.
Audige 7 points on 14 shots. Terrible. Basically a minus 7.
Buie 6 points on 13 shots. Also terrible, another minus 7.
Nance 9 points on 13 shots... below average.

MSU had 47 points on 52 FGA.
NU had 47 points on 65 FGA.
So despite 6 more offensive rebounds and a +6 in the turnover battle, our shooting was bad enough to wipe out our huge advantage in opportunities.

 

[loyolacat]

I like shots per possession for the team.....course when you shoot 32% becomes a little irrelevant.

 

[ricko6543211]

that the primary thing standing between us and the tournament is Buie and Audige and their shot selection. They both have much to offer, but the consequences of promiscuously jacking up shots are clear. Otherwise I feel we’re amply good enough to get it done. And I remain convinced this is a correctable problem if the will is there.

MSU had nothing going offensively in the first half other than transition buckets they’re too good at cashing in when a bad shot gets jacked up. The halftime lead could have easily been 13 like it was last year.

We also picked a bad time to have uncharacteristically bad FT shooting. I know physical play tends to have that effect, but man it was pretty sad through the whole game.

I totally agree on Audige shot selection. Sure Boo had a couple but overall he wasn't nearly as egregious, he wasn't making his shots today but IMO he wasn't actively tanking the offense like Chase was.

One thing I'd note though, is it's not like the others on the team were finding or creating good shots. I attribute it partly to the refs annoyingly turning it into a two-way FT shooting competition in the second half which ruined the flow of both halfcourt offenses to some extent - but our offensive execution was pretty meh in the second half. Not good player movement or ball movement except for a few limited exceptions (we seemed to have a good set right after a timeout a couple times). We seemed to devolve into running high ball screen in a loop then Boo or Chase would do something ill-advised - sometimes Chase did so even before any high ball screens. With a few low-post sets mixed in, which I think generally were more successful than the Chase or Boo possessions. Hopefully we look at tape and recognize this and can become more effective on offense in the 2H of close conference games.

Btw, Chase did play active and good defense throughout the game, so there's that. I think he outweighed that with his negative contributions on offense though, at least in this game.

And PS- Agree with the person that commented that Chase on multiple occasions shot it before having full control of the ball. He gets so excited about scoring... hopefully yday's game can be a learning experience.

 

[GatoLouco]

I'll add one more way we could have won the game yesterday (on top of the ones already mentioned):
1) 1st half being just a smidge better on offense, we could have easily added 4-6 points to a 7 point lead
2) 2nd half, just not allowing a 8-0 run out of the locker room

We have the talent. Having the results now rests on the little things that win games.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I'll add one more way we could have won the game yesterday (on top of the ones already mentioned):
1) 1st half being just a smidge better on offense, we could have easily added 4-6 points to a 7 point lead
2) 2nd half, just not allowing a 8-0 run out of the locker room

We have the talent. Having the results now rests on the little things that win games.

I don't think it comes as a shock that the starters (Nance, Beran, Buie, Audige and Berry) are now outscored 27-15 in about 13.5 minutes of Big Ten action.

 

[ricko6543211]

Audige was in control in the first half. Created good shots for other people in the process. He tends to go into poor shot mode the less in control of the game we are.

Yep exactly this - I even commented at one point in the first half to our group that Chase was displaying some uncharacteristic unselfishness - made a couple good kick-outs that led to buckets (one after the extra pass from Boo). Then he went off the rails repeatedly in the second half, and didn't stop even after he was chucking up ugly misses. It was very undisciplined.

 

[ricko6543211]

Some of the best tweets today are from MSU fans thanking Audige for their win.

any that are worth sharing? i don't have a TWTR account but could use for some amusement.

 

[DaCat]

And unfortunately Berry is mysteriously in foul trouble too often to be in the game enough to be another threat (Does he quietly whine to refs?)

Berry plays very aggressive defense and tries to draw contact fouls a lot, which can go either way. He got some calls in the first half, but ended up in foul trouble. He also started the game hot, hitting his first two 3 pointers, but then went 0-3 the rest of the game. Obviously we need him to play well if we are going to pull an upset or two.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I totally agree on Audige shot selection. Sure Boo had a couple but overall he wasn't nearly as egregious, he wasn't making his shots today but IMO he wasn't actively tanking the offense like Chase was.

One thing I'd note though, is it's not like the others on the team were finding or creating good shots. I attribute it partly to the refs annoyingly turning it into a two-way FT shooting competition in the second half which ruined the flow of both halfcourt offenses to some extent - but our offensive execution was pretty meh in the second half. Not good player movement or ball movement except for a few limited exceptions (we seemed to have a good set right after a timeout a couple times). We seemed to devolve into running high ball screen in a loop then Boo or Chase would do something ill-advised - sometimes Chase did so even before any high ball screens. With a few low-post sets mixed in, which I think generally were more successful than the Chase or Boo possessions. Hopefully we look at tape and recognize this and can become more effective on offense in the 2H of close conference games.

Btw, Chase did play active and good defense throughout the game, so there's that. I think he outweighed that with his negative contributions on offense though, at least in this game.

And PS- Agree with the person that commented that Chase on multiple occasions shot it before having full control of the ball. He gets so excited about scoring... hopefully yday's game can be a learning experience.

The second half of the game was awful to watch. Bad calls both ways.

I also agree that Boo wasn’t really the culprit of hero ball yesterday. That clearly was on Chase. Boo has reigning it in a lot so far this year. Have to think his brother is having a positive effect. If I am Pete, I am taking Chase to the side and tell him not to **** up my last year with that out of control play. I hear a lot about the talent in this team, but who really are the scores. Pete and Young are pretty consistent, then it becomes a crap shoot. Berry can’t stay on the court and if at least one of Boo & Chase are scoring, NU is in trouble.

 

[Username Not Available]

Is it just me or does Audige launch some of those 3's before he even has the ball securely in his hands? It's like he's so eager to launch the 3 he goes into the shot before he even has control of the ball. I've never seen someone do that before but I swear he did it multiple times today and not surprisingly, shot an airball every time.

I saw him do it three times in the second half. He was killing me, making a nice rebound, steal, or solid defensive stop, and then pissing it away trying to be the hero shooter. So many missed opportunities to kick the ball out to an open shooter, and not giving Pete the easy dunk on that break - arghh.

 

[hdhntr1]

If I had a dollar for every time Izzo spoke very highly of us over the last 15 years, I would have $15.

Probably more like $25 as we often play them more than once

 

[hdhntr1]

The second half of the game was awful to watch. Bad calls both ways.

I also agree that Boo wasn’t really the culprit of hero ball yesterday. That clearly was on Chase. Boo has reigning it in a lot so far this year. Have to think his brother is having a positive effect. If I am Pete, I am taking Chase to the side and tell him not to **** up my last year with that out of control play. I hear a lot about the talent in this team, but who really are the scores. Pete and Young are pretty consistent, then it becomes a crap shoot. Berry can’t stay on the court and if at least one of Boo & Chase are scoring, NU is in trouble.

That said, Nah was off from the start of the game through first half

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Probably the worst side effect of the game against MSU was that when Young and Nance both had fouled out, Collins was realizing his biggest nightmare. I could feel the sky falling thru the TV.

Thats going to stop him from using Young and Nance at the same time for quite awhile.

New starting line up choices...

Young, Nance, Audige, Buie, Greer
Nance, Williams, Audige, Buie, Greer
Young, Williams, Audige, Buie, Greer

 

[hdhntr1]

Points per field goal attempt is the better metric, in my opinion.
You should score about the same number of points from the floor as the number of shots attempted.
Audige 7 points on 14 shots. Terrible. Basically a minus 7.
Buie 6 points on 13 shots. Also terrible, another minus 7.
Nance 9 points on 13 shots... below average.

MSU had 47 points on 52 FGA.
NU had 47 points on 65 FGA.
So despite 6 more offensive rebounds and a +6 in the turnover battle, our shooting was bad enough to wipe out our huge advantage in opportunities.

Well, the normal to three guys were a combined 10 for 40 or 25% from the field. All three, Nash, Buie and Audige had trouble putting it down. That is not going to get it done

 

[Secho99]

Audige was in control in the first half. Created good shots for other people in the process. He tends to go into poor shot mode the less in control of the game we are.

This is a really good observation. It's clear that Chase is capable of playing in control and being a distributor as well as a shooter, but when things start going poorly he tends to lose patience and force things in an attempt to get us back in the game. Then there's his tendency to force being the one who takes the shot on "important" possessions down the stretch.

According to KenPom, Chase has taken 34.7% of the team's shots when he's on the floor. That's a staggeringly high number. If he had played enough minutes to qualify for leaderboards, that would put him in the top 10 in the country in shot percentage and higher than any Power 5 player (just above Johnny Davis and Keegan Murray). Combine that number with poor effective FG% and it's a bad scene. Especially when you have two super-efficient front court guys in Nance and Young. It could really cost the team games, even if we assume that Chase's efficiency will improve (I assume he'll end up better than 13% on 3s for the year, for example).

In some ways, I'm glad that Chase wants the ball and doesn't back down from a moment. That's a better trait than guys who don't want anything to do with a big shot. I just hope the coaches really are working with him on this. The guy's talented and if he plays within himself this can be a good team.

 

[GatoLouco]

This is a really good observation. It's clear that Chase is capable of playing in control and being a distributor as well as a shooter, but when things start going poorly he tends to lose patience and force things in an attempt to get us back in the game. Then there's his tendency to force being the one who takes the shot on "important" possessions down the stretch.

According to KenPom, Chase has taken 34.7% of the team's shots when he's on the floor. That's a staggeringly high number. If he had played enough minutes to qualify for leaderboards, that would put him in the top 10 in the country in shot percentage and higher than any Power 5 player (just above Johnny Davis and Keegan Murray). Combine that number with poor effective FG% and it's a bad scene. Especially when you have two super-efficient front court guys in Nance and Young. It could really cost the team games, even if we assume that Chase's efficiency will improve (I assume he'll end up better than 13% on 3s for the year, for example).

In some ways, I'm glad that Chase wants the ball and doesn't back down from a moment. That's a better trait than guys who don't want anything to do with a big shot. I just hope the coaches really are working with him on this. The guy's talented and if he plays within himself this can be a good team.

I’ve called him the guy in our team who can take the best bad shots at the end of the shot clock. If he sticks to force shots at that time we will be much better off.

Thanks for the numbers. Really good stuff

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

This is a really good observation. It's clear that Chase is capable of playing in control and being a distributor as well as a shooter, but when things start going poorly he tends to lose patience and force things in an attempt to get us back in the game. Then there's his tendency to force being the one who takes the shot on "important" possessions down the stretch.

According to KenPom, Chase has taken 34.7% of the team's shots when he's on the floor. That's a staggeringly high number. If he had played enough minutes to qualify for leaderboards, that would put him in the top 10 in the country in shot percentage and higher than any Power 5 player (just above Johnny Davis and Keegan Murray). Combine that number with poor effective FG% and it's a bad scene. Especially when you have two super-efficient front court guys in Nance and Young. It could really cost the team games, even if we assume that Chase's efficiency will improve (I assume he'll end up better than 13% on 3s for the year, for example).

In some ways, I'm glad that Chase wants the ball and doesn't back down from a moment. That's a better trait than guys who don't want anything to do with a big shot. I just hope the coaches really are working with him on this. The guy's talented and if he plays within himself this can be a good team.

I agree with most of your impressions of Chase Audige, but I don't see how you can say "It's clear that Chase is capable of being a distributor..."

I mean, I guess anybody is "capable" of passing, but in our games, Audige has proven that he is a poor distributor of the ball to his teammates.

Audige is a good on-ball defender and plays well in transition. He struggles in the half-court offense and has played better this year when paired with "team-oriented" guys like Young, Greer and Williams.

 

[Catfanincolo]

Robbie Hummel was beside himself about Audi. I’ve actually never heard an announcer single out one player so often in a game before. If I had a dollar for every time Hummel was exasperated by Audige today…

Robbie Hummel was right. Audige was trying to be the “hero” and win it on his own, IMHO.

I suspect CCC will discuss his shot selection in the film study afterwards. That’s the proper place to do it. Not in the heat of the game, and in public.