My thoughts on NU retaining Chris Collins
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My grass is brown right now. And that's still greener than NU's grass in the height of spring.
Is giving away $6,000,000 more palatable? How about $3,000,000? My vote is to let him stay for the duration rather than pay him to do nothing. The 'Cats have played entertaining basketball, taking most games into the last few minutes and we can use the money elsewhere. I read people complain about the unrealistic expectations of fans of other schools, but seldom see it in regard to our hoops program.
The thing is there are many calling for Collins' departure. When you think about it he hasn't done any worse than Fitz in the last 2 non-COVID years. Will Gragg issue statement on Fitz?
Great piece, Lou. Glad to know exactly how many dollars are at stake. I would agree that NU should not be paying a $9 million buyout. It's easy to forget how panicked people were about Duke replacing Coach K with CC or IU hiring him instead of Archie Miller.
Three questions...
Is there really no reduction in Collins annual salary if he is fired? Thats hard to believe. How is that even possible?
Is Chris Collins the luckiest man alive?
Where does this "Yes, the players like Collins. Yes, they play hard for him." come from?
It is pretty easy to counter "The players like each other, play hard for each other and don't really respect their coach."
I'd put that "the players like Collins" stuff in the urban legend category. I've heard differently, but am open to hearing actual evidence to support the claim.
Is there really no reduction in Collins annual salary if he is fired? Thats hard to believe. How is that even possible?
Is Chris Collins the luckiest man alive?
Where does this "Yes, the players like Collins. Yes, they play hard for him." come from?
It is pretty easy to counter "The players like each other, play hard for each other and don't really respect their coach."
I'd put that "the players like Collins" stuff in the urban legend category. I've heard differently, but am open to hearing actual evidence to support the claim.
Very basic contract law principle: the language of the contract agreed to by the parties is controlling as to all matters covered by the contract. A guaranteed contract is just that - the money is guaranteed. The employee can still be fired, but he is due the remaining balance on the contract unless there is a buyout provision in the contract.
Tell me, Aging. At what level do you think he should be fired? Can we agree that, if he were to go 0-20, he should be fired? What about 3-17? What about 2 more years of 3-17? I just want to know your parameters.
I feel like he did barely enough to keep his job this year. He beat a bad Minnesota team (that had just thrashed us) and a bad Nebraska team (that had just had 2 impressive wins). These occurred late in the year when the team could have given up. So - it's probably the bare minimum, but he should get another year since we have to pay him anyway. However, I have no hope or confidence for next year. To me, this is Gragg saying he needs another year to figure out a succession plan. If Collins pulls a rabbit out of his ***, great! Gives him another year.
Good article @lou v
I was not sure how much it was thinking 3-5 mill per for three years but that would be a hard number for donors to swallow. It was not the administration that put money into facilities but the donors who would be asked to also come up with the money to move on from him. Hard when you are going to those same donors to fund the remodel/replacement of Ryan Field.
I would also suggest that it is a bit unfair to bring in the 15-16 record as being sub 0.500 when a couple early games that probably would have changed that had to be cancelled. Also a little dishonest to suggest BC had a better win % when BC played a larger portion of his games against OOC foes that were often tuneups. This is also because the BIG has gone to a 20 game conference schedule and reduced the numbers of OOC games. CCC actually has had a higher win % against BIG foes.
Just suggesting it is not as simple as you suggest. Arte we disappointed he has not done better? Sure. But it is also not as bad as presented as there are some mitigating circumstances
Some counter points to a well-written article:
- Collins’ overall Big Ten record is slightly better than Carmody’s
- His SRS (adjusts for point differential and strength of schedule) is way higher than any coach in our history - over 60% higher than Carmody’s, who was second
- Collins’ record in close games is similar to / slightly better than his overall record - as you would expect. Great players win big games on their own; anyone who believes otherwise doesn’t watch basketball.
- The only other upper half BIG team we beat last year and not this year was OSU. Their 5-star recruit Branham had 24 points against us. We generally beat teams we should beat and lose to teams we should lose to. There’s no huge divide here in performance.
- Kids do appear to love playing for him. That matters. Players would know whether their coaches are stooges or not. If they lose guys to the portal, I don’t think it’s because he is a bad coach; it’s because they are just on a losing team.
- We MUST consider our academic restrictions and historically catastrophically poor losing record and small fan base when comparing our coach’s performance to other schools. It’s just not the same here, even if we lift all academic restrictions. As PPD says, feel free to wish for Wash / Rinse / Repeat with a new coach unless more dramatic changes are made.
I would also ask anyone to watch these upcoming NCAA games and see how our talent levels compare. Our coach gets a bad rap for not succeeding, but the issue is our talent level is not there. We can certainly attribute some recruiting blame to Collins for that, but his faults as a coach are way overblown based on the players he has.
- Collins’ overall Big Ten record is slightly better than Carmody’s
- His SRS (adjusts for point differential and strength of schedule) is way higher than any coach in our history - over 60% higher than Carmody’s, who was second
- Collins’ record in close games is similar to / slightly better than his overall record - as you would expect. Great players win big games on their own; anyone who believes otherwise doesn’t watch basketball.
- The only other upper half BIG team we beat last year and not this year was OSU. Their 5-star recruit Branham had 24 points against us. We generally beat teams we should beat and lose to teams we should lose to. There’s no huge divide here in performance.
- Kids do appear to love playing for him. That matters. Players would know whether their coaches are stooges or not. If they lose guys to the portal, I don’t think it’s because he is a bad coach; it’s because they are just on a losing team.
- We MUST consider our academic restrictions and historically catastrophically poor losing record and small fan base when comparing our coach’s performance to other schools. It’s just not the same here, even if we lift all academic restrictions. As PPD says, feel free to wish for Wash / Rinse / Repeat with a new coach unless more dramatic changes are made.
I would also ask anyone to watch these upcoming NCAA games and see how our talent levels compare. Our coach gets a bad rap for not succeeding, but the issue is our talent level is not there. We can certainly attribute some recruiting blame to Collins for that, but his faults as a coach are way overblown based on the players he has.
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You have to get the donors to sign on to picking up the tab. $9 million at this point is not doable. CCC is on notice and while he is safe at $9 million at $6 mill or $3 mill he may not be
Don’t be ridiculous. That would be Frank Selak.
Well, the good news, you will have many open seats at games available to you...
My question was "how is NU stupid enough to not have a reasonable buyout if things go badly?"
or "What kind of idiot guarantees an unproven coach all that money?"
we can argue about the amount, the length and the guarantee, but I hope we can see why Dr. Jim gave an extension in the first place. Collins had the team on the right trajectory, made the tourney/won a game, was coming back with most of the team returning. A new facility announced. What could possibly go wrong? Well, everything went wrong. The team collapsed, and Collins is the only active P6 coach with 5 straight losing seasons. That makes us, arguably, the worst P6 team in the country during that period. But - who amongst us expected this? If Chris Collins was a stock, I'd have lost a lot of money investing in that stock.
This is well put. The BIG has gotten much stronger since BC left. We are getting better talent than we were getting under BC but the BIG has gotten a lot stronger. We are also having to play more games against BIG foes than we ever did under BC and fewer against OOC foes. We are better but not enough better to overcome a stronger BIG.
And BC for all his accolades here (he did have 5 seasons above 0.500 but they were for a big part based on OOC games) as you say, he had a lower wining % in the BIG. In the last 3 years NU has played only about 25 OOC games total. Just saying it is a bit deceptive.
Are we really using OOC schedule to defend Collins? Have you seen how he schedules OOC opponents?
Your powers of hindsight here is off the charts.
Let's go back to 2017. Collins had just completed his fourth year at NU. He had won more games every year. He took NU to the Big Dance for the first time in history, and even won a game. They won a school-record 24 games. They finished with a winning Big Ten record for the first time in 49 years. They had four starters coming back. That's not an unproven coach.
It was very smart to lock him up with an extension. It looked like he was the answer. The fear was that a blueblood was going to come in and poach him. Should they have put a buyout in the contract? Maybe. But it was NOT AT ALL idiotic to give him all that money and a long-term deal. No one foresaw this coming.
One of the things used in the attack on him was that his overall winning % was lower than BC but really? The fact is that when BC started, they played a 16 game schedule which moved up to 18 during his time as HC and is now up to 20. BTT wasn't even in place originally.. The result was a larger % of BC's gamed coached were against OOC foes. CCC actually has had a higher win % of BIG games against a stronger BIG. That would seem to be pretty important
The Big Ten tournament was in place, it started in KON's first year.
And the point isn't that Collins has a worse record than Carmody, it's that he's achieved effectively the same results despite being brought in to move the program to the next level. Yes, Carmody's overall record is better, but he won 47.8% of his games and Collins has won 47.2%. Yes, Collins' Big Ten record is better, but he has won 33.1% of his games and Carmody won 31.8% of his. None of these are meaningfully different. And it's one thing to explain away a tough season or two by saying the conference is tougher, but an entire decade-long tenure?
Counterpoints: CCC and our team were very close to not making that tournament. And despite some claiming he was “a hot prospect for blue bloods”, none of those programs actually recruited him. They wanted to see if he was more than a one hit wonder who rode Coach K’s coattails. (Spoiler: he wasn’t)
Phillips bid against himself to lock in a coach who helped blow a painful comeback against Gonzaga due to his lack of composure. Before that, we eeked out a victory against a Vanderbilt team with 18 losses - a record for a NCAA tournament team.
He then was exposed as a below average strategist and way below developer of talent. We have dropped to a lower point as a program than we were with Carmody. We have blown a number of games each season where he was frankly out coached.
Jim Phillips blew this decision, and left for the ACC without fixing his mistake. Rule of thumb: don’t give out massive extensions unless someone has earned it, like Fitz has.
Collins earned it. He took a bunch of relatively unknown (except maybe for Law, though we know his game was not refined when he arrived as a frosh) recruits and made them a very solid NCAA team. And look how well Law and Lindsey and Pardon and others did post-NU. We can’t criticize Collins for not developing players and then not recognize what he did with / for these guys.
The reality (to me) is that this was not to be expected; it was a group of guys and a coach that actually over-achieved. Bad luck and some injuries and some inexperience on Collins’s part and Allstate arena led to a down year when we needed a solid year post-NCAA. Recruiting for NU is too much of a limited pool to keep consistent momentum, so the talent level fell off. But he has made relative progress with inferior talent recently. I’m just not sure how he (or anyone) gets the talent level to where we want and need it.
The NU job is a very challenging one. It is time in my opinion to move on. The next coach very likely will not fair any better in wins and losses. The limits of NU with academic standards and lack of history are hard to over come. It is time to try something new.
I didn't say it was idiotic to sign Collins to an extension, though I did not believe it was warranted or necessary at the time.
I'm saying it was stupid to sign Collins to a guaranteed contract. You know why? Because it is stupid to sign basketball coaches to long term guaranteed contracts. Until the guy has proven he can do it consistently. That comes later, not in your 4th year, on the shoulders of your first recruiting class.
I recognize that a lot of NU fans were "all-in" on Collins and would have given him anything he asked for. NU signed Pat Fitzgerald to a 10 year extension at the same time. Fitzgerald deserved it. Collins did not. Again, my opinion at the time,
The first half unpreparedness against Gonzaga, the 2nd half collapse against Vanderbilt, the technical against Gonzaga - these were all reasons to hesitate...
You've heard the saying "Don't put all your eggs in one basket," right?
This is why.
a) I think you could have sold the same "security" with either the same money or a tad more for only five years. The additional 2-3 years were risky.
b) Hindsight is 20/20 but it is in fact a dumb contract ... especially if it lacks an NU-friendly buyout for these last 2-3 years. Big points off the Phillips scoreboard.
c) Like me, I think most people are forgetting NU signed Collins to a first extension in May 2015. So that HAD to be more than two years. The 2017 extension was CC's third contract at NU. Big, big, big points off the Phillips scoreboard.
c) I'm sorry to say this again, but "all that money" is mid-range for the B10.
EDIT: Not a bad call for 2017 ...
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I’m sorry but we can’t keep blaming academic standards and quality of players year after year. There are other good academic schools like Duke, Stanford, and Vandy that have much better track records than NU. It’s not money. The Ryan Family has some of the deepest pockets in the country next to Pat Knight/Oregon and T Boone Pickens/OSU. And as far as talent, Collins has recruited way way more Top 100 players than Carmody ever had because of the Princeton offense system. Collins had Vic Law 2014, Aaron Falzon 2015, Rapolas Ivanauskus 2016, Pete Nance/Miller Kopp 2018, Robbie Beran 2019, Ty Berry 2020, and Casey Simmons in 2021. The Top 9 NU recruits all time were recruited by Chris Collins. At what point do we recognize that Collins has under performed and he is the common link in all this failure. At least with Carmody we scored and had guys like Shurna, Kevin Coble, Jitim Young, Vedran Vukusic….all of which were three stars. Regardless of academics and NU’s talent, Chris Collins has simply not performed. NU is the ONLY school to miss the tourney 5 years in a row and keep their coach. NU needs to move on and my biggest frustration is all these people who keep coming to his defense. I am truly saddened if you all believe that NU can never amount to more than a 10-seed in a 14 team conference. I get we won’t be good every year but jeez. Have a little pride and don’t settle and smile for beating Nebraska, Minnesota, an Indiana team without half their players, and a Maryland team who’s coach just quit. NU fans! Let’s have a higher bar and not settle for a 40% winning % in sports regardless of the horrible history in the past. I hope I am wrong but this feels like the 2020 Chicago Bears. Everyone knew Nagy/Pace were gone and we wasted a year. Again, I hope Collins makes me eat my words but this is as hopeless as I’ve felt in a longtime as a NU Bball fan….and now I’m refreshing this page to see who transfers. Love all the debate and passion on the Rock but let’s all please have higher expectations than graduating our players and being okay losing close games!!!
I agree with you but I believe the stat that is out there lately is that NU is the only Power 5/6 program to have had 5 consecutive losing seasons and not fired the coach.
I don't know how many have actually had 5 consecutive losing seasons.
Please try to understand that I don’t participate on this board to defend that we are “settling”. I am providing data and historical context and some observations as to Collins’ performance. If you think we’ve settled for every coaching hire in our past 80 years (given Collins is our best in hindsight) feel free, but it’s not true. We all want more success, but there are systemic issues at hand that go way beyond our coaches.
CCC has been here for nine years. The talent level — whether misevaluated, poorly developed, or still inconsistent — is 100% on him at this point.
He does not have a rigid offensive philosophy. He does not have a trademark defensive philosophy. There is no statistical category (except ‘luck’) in which his teams are known to excel.
His program-building philosophy is ‘get the best players I can, and figure out what to do with them.’ In many ways, this is a beautiful strategy — build my team to the shape of my talent.
But, if that talent is inferior — and it is! — then what does he have?
That is not a bad thing if you are a Northwestern coach. We don't get to go to the supermarket and pick off the shelf. I am fully on board with taking best available, with the obvious caveat of having to get to a balanced roster by position.
The problem is the CC has zero ability to turn best available into a style of play that fits what he has in front of him. If you want a rigid style that is your own, then recruit for it. Might be impossible at NU. If you take best available, adapt, and maximize what you have. CC is atrocious with this as this last season demonstrated in an extreme way.
Folks so often talk here about talent or athletic deficits we have against other programs. But that's where I think we made a huge leap forward. CC was the first coach to bring a roster of players with actual B1G bodies. No comparison to anything we saw before.
Just yesterday I am watching Indiana and thinking how in the world would someone see us as less athletic than the Hossiers?
Based on an idea of athleticism as a combo of speed and length:
Jackson Davis vs Nance - slight advantage IU
Thompson vs Beran - even
Johnson vs Audige - even
Stewart vs Buie - even
Kopp vs Roper - slight advantage NU
I think next year barring unbelievable transfer success, it’s a dead man walking situation for CCC. You say that CCC recruited way more top 100 players than CBC. I guess 1 is way more than 0. The problem has been, is, and will be getting elite players to commit to NU. There is a pattern here. We stink pretty much every year, no matter who is at the helm. A lot people on here way overestimate our talent.
I would have made the move after this year rather than waiting for the inevitable next year. I personally don’t expect long term success by ONLY changing the Coach. I expect us to be calling for another head in about 5 years.
Of course you are correct. I think a lot of people on here don't watch much basketball.
To say Collins is skilled at molding a team from individual pieces is 100% incorrect. He doesn't know how to put the team together. He is quite bad at it. He lacks imagination in his offensive scheme. He grossly undervalues rebounding and interior defense, He has plenty to work with talent-wise, a testimony to his recruiting and the appeal of Northwestern as a university.
Its funny - I was actually thinking the same thing last night watching Indiana play. You could make a very compelling argument that NU is more talented than Indiana. The recruiting rankings are very similar....obvious edge to Jackson Davis for being a freak....but NU has more experience. And Indiana is a 20 win team that could very easily beat St Mary's on Thursday. Love the post!
It's athleticism + skill. That's the combination you need and its one NU has never quite gotten right. We've had skilled guys before - I'd put Young in this category. But they lack athleticism. We've had athletic guys before - including several on this current team. But they lack the high-level basketball skill. Other BIG teams get those guys who have the right combination of athleticism and skill.
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