Nate Silver's mea culpa . . .
- Thread starter Fingon
- Start date
I agree on all accounts and this nails it...
Nate Silver
✔@NateSilver538
Updated post-Trump priors:
1. Voters are more tribal than I thought.
2. GOP is weaker than I thought.
3. Media is worse than I thought
Here are the three reasons Nate gives for being wrong on how Trump would do.
1. Voters are more tribal than I thought.
2. GOP is weaker than I thought.
3. Media is worse than I thought.
I don't think any of them get a major point, although #1 is ballpark-ish. I think one reason Trump did so well is that so many people feel angry. I don't see a lot of media analysis on why they're angry.
I think some of it has been because of the left. For one, the left has been winning the culture wars and while losing is tough to take, it's extra tough to take when the winners rub it in. And the left haven't been very gracious winners. I mean, I can see how the left would be happy to finally win on, say, gay marriage, but they've been a bit in your face, spking the football as Obama would say.
Another one is the Muslims thing. All Muslims aren't evil nor is Islam going to ruin the world. But OTOH it's not like the people doing the terrorism have nothing to do with Islam, like some on the left try to say. There is a problem with Islam and its relation to modernity and when one side won't address a problem then the other side gets to do so. And that opens the way for
extremist views. When the only views are extreme ones then they don't sound too extreme to some people.
I think some segment of the Trump supporters are so angry that part of the point of supporting Trump is that it pisses off the establishment and the left.
1. Voters are more tribal than I thought.
2. GOP is weaker than I thought.
3. Media is worse than I thought.
I don't think any of them get a major point, although #1 is ballpark-ish. I think one reason Trump did so well is that so many people feel angry. I don't see a lot of media analysis on why they're angry.
I think some of it has been because of the left. For one, the left has been winning the culture wars and while losing is tough to take, it's extra tough to take when the winners rub it in. And the left haven't been very gracious winners. I mean, I can see how the left would be happy to finally win on, say, gay marriage, but they've been a bit in your face, spking the football as Obama would say.
Another one is the Muslims thing. All Muslims aren't evil nor is Islam going to ruin the world. But OTOH it's not like the people doing the terrorism have nothing to do with Islam, like some on the left try to say. There is a problem with Islam and its relation to modernity and when one side won't address a problem then the other side gets to do so. And that opens the way for
extremist views. When the only views are extreme ones then they don't sound too extreme to some people.
I think some segment of the Trump supporters are so angry that part of the point of supporting Trump is that it pisses off the establishment and the left.
