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Naz/Providence 2018 Success Factor Talk

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Prowler2018

Freshman
Feb 24, 2014
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ok so what’s the scoop? Who moves on and why to their predetermined demise at the hands of Superman...Let’s all play nice on here so we don’t get flushed!

Before the banter begins...let’s agree that both conferences are good, ok that’s settled!

On your marks- Get set...and Go!
 
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G

go dogz

Sophomore
Oct 14, 2010
363
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providence should win this game rather easily.
if they play as they did against, richards and stl. this will not even be a contest. if naz can somehow play mistake free football for 4qtrs. they have a chance of losing this game by 17pts. if not, ugly. honestly, this pc team is going to route pr by 2or 3 td this year. they were built to stop the run and that is what they do. and they limit the big plays.
 
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pjjp

All-Conference
Aug 26, 2001
5,670
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I'm not sure PC is as big a favorite as is being alleged. PC tends to sell out to stop the run. Naz has the athletes to make them pay, if they ignore the pass. Naz needs to contain Gavin. If he breaks numerous big plays they are in trouble. Naz also needs to limit their penalties. From what I've read on here, it seems that's been a problem all year for the Roadrunners. Naz got a big win on the road at SHG last week, so a shorter trip to New Lenox should not be an issue. I give the senior-dominated Celtics a slight edge at home in the Success Factor Bowl.
 
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Trojan Fox

Sophomore
Aug 28, 2017
248
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PC should win this game by 10+. Naz is 1 year away from being special.

Question, if Naz lost, would they go back down to 5A next season?
 
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Hill1729

Freshman
Aug 3, 2017
129
96
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It pains me but I think the edge goes to Providence. I will say by one touchdown. But no doubt a hard fought game. Naz is a year away from dominating. They could get win this week. I just don't see it. What's a real good questions is how good should the ESCC be next year. But I'm sure that thread will come in the next month or so.
 
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No Bias---Just Reality

Senior
Sep 24, 2009
881
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godfthr53 said:
Naz will be 5A with loss 7A with win. The beauty of the IHSA.
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I could be wrong but my understanding was they look at previous 4 seasons and 2 championship games in 4 years you get the success factor bump. Next year previous four seasons will be 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017.... and they were in championship game 2 out of those four seasons assuming a loss to providence. Where is that wrong?

That's why a win over providence would be 3 out of 4 and bump to 7a.
 
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pjjp

All-Conference
Aug 26, 2001
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If Naz' Jr. class is as good as advertised, they could win 7A next year. Biggest challenge might be having a projected soph. starting at QB.
 
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godfthr53

All-Conference
Sep 8, 2008
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No Bias---Just Reality said:
I could be wrong but my understanding was they look at previous 4 seasons and 2 championship games in 4 years you get the success factor bump. Next year previous four seasons will be 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017.... and they were in championship game 2 out of those four seasons assuming a loss to providence. Where is that wrong?

That's why a win over providence would be 3 out of 4 and bump to 7a.
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Its 2 out of 4 with 1 being in the previous 2 seasons. So if Naz loses they wouldn't have been in a title game in the previous 2 seasons and be 5A. If they win they would have had 2 in 4 and 1 in the previous 2 so 7A.
 
Snetsrak61

Snetsrak61

Senior
Aug 16, 2008
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godfthr53 said:
Its 2 out of 4 with 1 being in the previous 2 seasons. So if Naz loses they wouldn't have been in a title game in the previous 2 seasons and be 5A. If they win they would have had 2 in 4 and 1 in the previous 2 so 7A.
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Sounds like the rule is broke, lol.
 
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JCHillmen

All-Conference
Nov 30, 2001
3,377
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What if Naz naturally falls as the smallest 6A qualifier next year? Or PC naturally falls as the smallest 7A qualifier next year? Would PC bump to 8A or Naz to 7A if they win this week?

I have to think Providence is a substantial favorite Saturday.
 
N

No Bias---Just Reality

Senior
Sep 24, 2009
881
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JCHillmen said:
What if Naz naturally falls as the smallest 6A qualifier next year? Or PC naturally falls as the smallest 7A qualifier next year? Would PC bump to 8A or Naz to 7A if they win this week?

I have to think Providence is a substantial favorite Saturday.
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If naz wins this week they get a 2 class bump, so under your hypothetical, they would be bumped to 8a but I don't think naz is anywhere near a natural 6a classification and at risk of that happening.
 
Snetsrak61

Snetsrak61

Senior
Aug 16, 2008
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No Bias---Just Reality said:
If naz wins this week they get a 2 class bump, so under your hypothetical, they would be bumped to 8a but I don't think naz is anywhere near a natural 6a classification and at risk of that happening.
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I can't speak to how close they are, but they were just 4 years ago (just barely), so it's a decent question.
 
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godfthr53

All-Conference
Sep 8, 2008
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No Bias---Just Reality said:
If naz wins this week they get a 2 class bump, so under your hypothetical, they would be bumped to 8a but I don't think naz is anywhere near a natural 6a classification and at risk of that happening.
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It also somewhere in there says that its only 1 class at a time bump. so the 2 bump you speak of would be from the original 5A.
 
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Voodoo Tatum 21

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May 18, 2016
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No Bias---Just Reality said:
If naz wins this week they get a 2 class bump, so under your hypothetical, they would be bumped to 8a but I don't think naz is anywhere near a natural 6a classification and at risk of that happening.
Click to expand...

By natural you mean with the 1.65 multiplier and where each team would sit once the 256 teams were determined?

This stuff (especially the success factor bump) post the normal multipler is frikkin complicated. Need a TI84 calculator to run these numbers.
 
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N

No Bias---Just Reality

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Sep 24, 2009
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godfthr53 said:
It also somewhere in there says that its only 1 class at a time bump. so the 2 bump you speak of would be from the original 5A.
Click to expand...


Not only is it a bad rule, between this and the 2/4 but also at least 1 out of last 2 this thing is a nightmare. I could live with the success factor rule if it was capped at a 1 class bump but up to as many as 3 is ridiculous. Under the rule there is no penalty for an 8a team like Loyola/marist and a max 1 class bump for a 7a like Benet/etc. so to only over punish 1,2,3,4,5a makes it very inequitable and is that not the ihsa aim with this thing. Plus along with the 1 class cap make it 2 of last 3 years and it's less ridiculous. And maybe make them championships won, not just participated in....
 
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N

No Bias---Just Reality

Senior
Sep 24, 2009
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Voodoo Tatum 21 said:
By natural you mean with the 1.65 multiplier and where each team would sit once the 256 teams were determined?

This stuff (especially the success factor bump) post the normal multipler is frikkin complicated. Need a TI84 calculator to run these numbers.[/QUOTE

Yes natural as in after 1.65 but before success factor.... and yes, very convoluted! Probably intentionally!
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pjjp

All-Conference
Aug 26, 2001
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Prowler2018 said:
Whew...what a long day at work!!! To come back to complete highjacking lol...quick quick- I need the instructions to change the title to “Naz and Provi 2018 Class if they make the ship!”
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In your view, what does Naz need to do to win this Saturday?
 
P

Prowler2018

Freshman
Feb 24, 2014
166
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pjjp said:
In your view, what does Naz need to do to win this Saturday?
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Win special teams play and cash in when opportunity arises, can’t have FG in Redzone trips. They have the athletes to get loose a few times but so does Provi- We will know quickly imo based on the success or non we see the Celtics have rushing...
 
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godfthr53

All-Conference
Sep 8, 2008
4,964
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I just thought about this success factor bowl and I was wrong. If Provi wins they will have to play 8A next not 7A per the new "Naz Rule" that was put into effect this year that crosses classes.
 
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Voodoo Tatum 21

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May 18, 2016
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godfthr53 said:
I just thought about this success factor bowl and I was wrong. If Provi wins they will have to play 8A next not 7A per the new "Naz Rule" that was put into effect this year that crosses classes.
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How can that be? There is no success bump for the 8A teams - it’s not like LA can be bumped to 9A if they win the 8A title this year. Sounds like to avoid the punishment - you need to become a very large private school and then you can’t be messed with!
 
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UlbKA91

Junior
Sep 22, 2015
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Voodoo Tatum 21 said:
How can that be? There is no success bump for the 8A teams - it’s not like LA can be bumped to 9A if they win the 8A title this year. Sounds like to avoid the punishment - you need to become a very large private school and then you can’t be messed with!
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I thought that's when IHSA implements the hockey rule, splits the team (Maroon, Gold) and puts them each in 7A.
 
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Voodoo Tatum 21

All-Conference
May 18, 2016
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godfthr53 said:
Are you saying Private schools are treated unfairly?
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I’m one that also subscribes to the mantra “to be the best you need to play and beat the best” and I think that philosophy can apply to both public and private.

But that said - yeah I think that is Unfair when the rules for privates (right or wrong) are applied differently depending on School size.

What I would like to see is an open division classification containing both privates and public’s and less success multipliers and success bumps
 
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Prowler2018

Freshman
Feb 24, 2014
166
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Ok- I know how to take a hint! Success factor talk it is..good luck to both squads! Title changed to allow your conversations to flow without the deceiving title! Game and prediction talk can migrate over to Week 13 ESCC and CCL prediction threads when they are posted!
 
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mc140

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
8,780
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Providence would not be multiplied as their title was not in 6A last time.
 
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jwarigaku

All-Conference
Jan 30, 2006
4,201
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Exactly, that is Godfthr's point. Naz's first title was in 6A second was in 5A and now successed to 6A, while providence would likely be forced to 8A if classed as likely 7A next summer. Did I get that right Godfthr?

mc140 said:
Providence would not be multiplied as their title was not in 6A last time.
Click to expand...
 
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