NCAA BRACKET SHOW THREAD

Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
14,953
10,489
113
How hard is it to understand how bad Q3 losses are? You can’t have that many unless your quality wins are significant. Last year we got the benefit of the doubt and we’re an outlier profile to get in.
That may be true but it is a lousy principle to use for selection.
 

Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
14,953
10,489
113
Why do you think so?
As I write in another thread, is you are selecting a field to compete for championships you want to select first, champions, and second teams that show evidence of being able to compete for championships. In other words, you want high ceiling teams rather than low floor teams. The various metrics will punish teams who truly lose too much.

The emphasis on consistency reminds me of college football, where it is all about not losing. It is unattractive and not good for the sport.

With these in mind, selection should embrace body of work as well as anticipated ability to compete now, which does have some recency bias and requires paying attention in conference tourneys.

And OOC SOS should only be available as a helpful not handful metric of overall sos is low, so you are not overly punished for a weak conference if you schedule up.


BTW, If you lose by 20 in your conference final, you shouldn't be a 1 seed. But that's another story for another day.
 

Scangg

Heisman
Mar 19, 2016
25,448
49,369
113
Rutgers SOS was 41 probably higher than the nubs who got in over us. OOC SOS should be irrelevant really. Overall should only matter. Weighting OOC SOS counts the minority games as more important which is beyond stupid

What ever happened to Q1 wins being the most important factor?
 

Scangg

Heisman
Mar 19, 2016
25,448
49,369
113
Jeff Probst James GIF by Survivor CBS
 

gmay8

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2005
2,526
2,515
113
If Penn State had won today and won the BIG, in theory RU’s net would have increased having beaten PSU twice who just beat Purdue and won the BIG.
RU would still have been out, since it seems the teams were picked last night. That would have been an even bigger travesty.

Just confirming…. We were out no matter what right? No matter what happened today?
 

shields

Heisman
Aug 5, 2002
79,149
16,795
113
Just think about this . What if Miami game had been home instead of down there and we beat them? In tourney.
 
Jan 12, 2015
36,721
36,616
113
Let the players decide.
That's fair. But other than getting Simpson reps, not sure what benefit there is for the program. It would be horrible if any significant returning players (Cliff. Paul--I hope), Cam, Simpson, Woolfolk, yeh Hyatt, etc get seriously injured playing in the NIT.
 

fischy5000

Senior
Dec 11, 2008
2,666
932
0
How hard is it to understand how bad Q3 losses are? You can’t have that many unless your quality wins are significant. Last year we got the benefit of the doubt and we’re an outlier profile to get in.
It seems like they did have enough of those wins. Am I wrong? 4 Q1s (including against #1 and high ranked indiana on road) vs 1 Q1 total which was against a team (duke) who was still in their not-such-a-good team-yet portion of the season. If they want to use full body of work, pull out the top victory vs purdue and bad loss vs minn and we still show better than ncst/nevada id say.
 

NewJerseyHawk

Heisman
Jan 11, 2007
23,901
37,573
113
It doesn't really sound like Minnesota was the deciding factor if UNC was 1 spot behind us, with no quality wins on their resume. We would have been passed by UNC if they won vs Duke last week or vs UVA Friday night. UNC was past Clemson and would have jumped OK State, Rutgers, Nevada and probably Pitt too.

They were looking for eyeballs and ratings and ANY reason to add UNC to the mix. And no one would have blinked if UNC got in over RU if they beat Duke last week. It would have also been understood if Michigan would have pulled out the Illinois 2OT loss and/or Indiana OT loss last Sunday.

This is about name, branding and image and nothing more. Schools like NC State and Nevada had nothing on RU whatsoever.

Oklahoma State being the 1st 4 out also tells me that SOS doesn't matter....only applies to some, not all.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUfanSinceAnderson
Jan 12, 2015
36,721
36,616
113
You R crazy fella. RU should gladly accept the NIT bid as young as we are. Hell if some of the seniors don't want to play wish them luck and let's get it!
Young players? You mean Simpson and Woolfolk. Choi isn't going to play, Miller should be transferring...not worth it imo, But yeh if the team wants to then sure, as I have agreed.
Let the players decide.
That's fair. But other than getting Simpson reps, not sure what benefit there is for the program. It would be horrible if any significant returning players (Cliff. Paul--I hope), Cam, Simpson, Woolfolk, yeh Hyatt, etc get seriously injured playing in the NIT.

 

Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
14,953
10,489
113
As I write in another thread, is you are selecting a field to compete for championships you want to select first, champions, and second teams that show evidence of being able to compete for championships. In other words, you want high ceiling teams rather than low floor teams. The various metrics will punish teams who truly lose too much.

The emphasis on consistency reminds me of college football, where it is all about not losing. It is unattractive and not good for the sport.

With these in mind, selection should embrace body of work as well as anticipated ability to compete now, which does have some recency bias and requires paying attention in conference tourneys.

And OOC SOS should only be available as a helpful not handful metric of overall sos is low, so you are not overly punished for a weak conference if you schedule up.


BTW, If you lose by 20 in your conference final, you shouldn't be a 1 seed. But that's another story for another day.
@RUsojo . YouR thoughts re my reply?
 

cicero grimes

All-American
Nov 23, 2015
8,359
8,886
0
Disagree. I think the Big Ten lost a lot of credibility last year in the tournament and getting more than 8 in this year was a stretch. In retrospect Penn states resurgence came at our expense
Agree and with ucla coming on board it's only going to get harder if you are the 9th B1G team looking to get in.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RutgersClassof2004

RUsojo

Heisman
Dec 17, 2010
28,303
26,914
113
@RUsojo . YouR thoughts re my reply?
I understand the perspective and think body of work is and has been considered.

Ultimately I think what matters is what the Committee took into consideration which is high Q1 wins (high ceiling potential), bad losses, road/neutral record, and non conf sos.

That accomplishes what you’re seeking imo

Reality is close wins and losses against non-high Q1 and Q2 games for teams in that bucket don’t tell you anything about the team. Each team is typically expected to win 4 or 5 out of 10 times.

You need the high Q1 and Q3 games to tell you who a team is and if they are worthy.
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
238,163
167,903
113
When it’s your only high Q1 win it’s not enough to offset so many bad losses.

Curious how your bracket rated compared to years past?

Nevada has nothing but a split with top 3 in MW and no road wins

Ru has 3 wins vs big ten top 3 by the way
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
238,163
167,903
113
I understand the perspective and think body of work is and has been considered.

Ultimately I think what matters is what the Committee took into consideration which is high Q1 wins (high ceiling potential), bad losses, road/neutral record, and non conf sos.

That accomplishes what you’re seeking imo

Reality is close wins and losses against non-high Q1 and Q2 games for teams in that bucket don’t tell you anything about the team. Each team is typically expected to win 4 or 5 out of 10 times.

You need the high Q1 and Q3 games to tell you who a team is and if they are worthy.

Do nevada

Do ncstate
 

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,897
0
I could not disagree more with selecting for "high ceiling potential". Name a single other sporting playoff/tournament like thing that selects for "high ceiling potential" as opposed to basically "average performance" (i.e. a win/loss record for sports with less unbalanced schedules). Specifically rewarding inconsistency is nonsensical.
 

RutgersClassof2004

All-Conference
Feb 23, 2020
3,055
2,794
113
Rutgers SOS was 41 probably higher than the nubs who got in over us. OOC SOS should be irrelevant really. Overall should only matter. Weighting OOC SOS counts the minority games as more important which is beyond stupid

What ever happened to Q1 wins being the most important factor?
Wrong Man's Math.
 

fischy5000

Senior
Dec 11, 2008
2,666
932
0
Rutgers SOS was 41 probably higher than the nubs who got in over us. OOC SOS should be irrelevant really. Overall should only matter. Weighting OOC SOS counts the minority games as more important which is beyond stupid

What ever happened to Q1 wins being the most important factor?
yeah. If they're going to put this multiplier/handicap on rating the OOC SOS then I think there should be an equivalent multiplier/handicap for Conference SOS. So if you play in toughest conference (just general example) you shouldnt get dinged for missing out on some victories compared to a much lower conference who plays consistently against lower level tiered teams. and if you dont want to evaluate that way then just use the overall SOS.
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
238,163
167,903
113
SDSU Utah St and Boise St are higher in NET than every big team but Purdue.

Good example here of over valuing Rutgers Q1 wins.

Lol net...you are looking at net

Rutgers 40
Pitt 66
Asu 65
Providence 5?

Where are you MW schools seeded and where are big 10 schools seeded
 

RUsojo

Heisman
Dec 17, 2010
28,303
26,914
113
Lol beating Boise isnt better than beating Indiana. Beating Utah State isnt better than winning at Northwestern
Great example of the one-sided use of the injury discussion pointing
to our best non-Purdue win as an Indiana team without their 2nd best player.
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
238,163
167,903
113
Our win over Indiana was legit

Then takeaway Rutgers 2 losses to Temple and Miami