NIT dreaming

[bringbacktherantboard]

With our remaining schedule, I now believe it's within reach to finish the season over .500.

What will it take to make the NIT bubble? I think the selection committee puts a premium on quality wins. NU has a great win over MSU. Our second-best win is... Rutgers, maybe?

Indiana is probably a must-win.

Do you think the NIT is still a realistic goal? What needs to happen?

 

[hoosboot]

With our remaining schedule, I now believe it's within reach to finish the season over .500.

What will it take to make the NIT bubble? I think the selection committee puts a premium on quality wins. NU has a great win over MSU. Our second-best win is... Rutgers, maybe?

Indiana is probably a must-win.

Do you think the NIT is still a realistic goal? What needs to happen?

Great topic and it's possible, but seems like it could be a longshot. Depending on how the bubble breaks, the team IMHO probably needs eighteen wins to feel comfortable about the NIT. 17 could do it, but seems pretty precarious. So that's six or seven more wins with eight left in the regular season.

Indiana does seem like a must win...although I'd trade a win against Purdue or Illinois for a loss against Indiana. 6-2 down the stretch likely means needing to win the team's first round game in the B1G tourney, but it seems likely it would be in the 7-10 game (as the 10 seed) or the 8-9 game (as the 9 seed). 5-3 likely may mean needing to win two games in the B1G tourney, but at least it may mean an easier first round matchup on day #1.

To get there, it seems like there's hardly any room for a slip against the Nebs, Minnys, and PSUs and Iowa and IU are really key games. Looks like a steep climb with little margin for error, but there's a path there to take.

 

[ricko6543211]

With our remaining schedule, I now believe it's within reach to finish the season over .500.

What will it take to make the NIT bubble? I think the selection committee puts a premium on quality wins. NU has a great win over MSU. Our second-best win is... Rutgers, maybe?

Indiana is probably a must-win.

Do you think the NIT is still a realistic goal? What needs to happen?

So if we finish 8-12 in conference (4-4 rest of the way) that's 15-14 overall, plus 1-1 in B1G tourney would be 16-15? Winning record is the first qualifier we need I think. I suspect we'd need 17-18 wins to make the NIT but haven't really looked into it.

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

Winning record is the first qualifier we need I think.

They actually removed that as a requirement when the NCAA took over the NIT, but I think there's zero chance they would take a Northwestern team with a losing record.

 

[Styre]

So if we finish 8-12 in conference (4-4 rest of the way) that's 15-14 overall, plus 1-1 in B1G tourney would be 16-15? Winning record is the first qualifier we need I think. I suspect we'd need 17-18 wins to make the NIT but haven't really looked into it.

The NIT is really hard to predict, but a winning record with NET/Pomeroy ratings in the 60s should earn us an at-large bid. There isn't a lot of data but NET ratings have looked like this:

1-40: NCAA
41-50: NCAA bubble, NIT lock
51-65: NCAA out, NIT in
66-75: NIT bubble
76+: NIT out, with a few exceptions

At the moment we're NET 69, Pomeroy 63, so we're solidly on the NIT bubble.

 

[Styre]

They actually removed that as a requirement when the NCAA took over the NIT, but I think there's zero chance they would take a Northwestern team with a losing record.

Correct, but in that time they have never selected a team with a losing record, so it's still a de facto requirement to be .500 or better.

 

[hoosboot]

The NIT is really hard to predict, but a winning record with NET/Pomeroy ratings in the 60s should earn us an at-large bid. There isn't a lot of data but NET ratings have looked like this:

1-40: NCAA
41-50: NCAA bubble, NIT lock
51-65: NCAA out, NIT in
66-75: NIT bubble
76+: NIT out, with a few exceptions

At the moment we're NET 69, Pomeroy 63, so we're solidly on the NIT bubble.

I suspect that it's no easy prediction, but how do the NET/Pomeroy ratings look with a 4-4 finish? Does wins over Minny, Nebraska, and PSU with losses to OSU, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa raise the ranking? Or do those wins need to come against higher rated teams/on the road?

Holy cow - Nebraska is #184?

 

[phatcat_rivals223240]

Holy cow - Nebraska is #184?

Hence, the beat down yesterday. I'm glad to see us thrash a team but not getting too excited until we beat another team or three with a pulse

 

[CappyNU]

Per Bart Torvik, our remaining games go in order of hardest to easiest:

Reach games:
@Illinois
@Iowa
Purdue

Probably need to win:
Indiana
@Penn State
@Minnesota

Must-win:
Minnesota
Nebraska

I'd say we need to either beat IU and one of the other road games in that tier plus the bottom two or need a reach win with one from the middle tier in your 4-4 scenario. Would think 5-3 is necessary though for postseason. Big opportunity this week.

 

[Styre]

I suspect that it's no easy prediction, but how do the NET/Pomeroy ratings look with a 4-4 finish? Does wins over Minny, Nebraska, and PSU with losses to OSU, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa raise the ranking? Or do those wins need to come against higher rated teams/on the road?

Holy cow - Nebraska is #184?

Those opponents will not significantly help our resume if that's how the wins and losses play out. Penn State is NET 89, Minnesota is 90, and Nebraska is 198. That's two Q2 wins (@MIN, @PSU), one Q3 win (home MIN), and one Q4 win (home NEB).

At that point, what matters is how well we play. For example - we got no benefit just because we beat a terrible Nebraska team, and they didn't suffer just because they lost to us. But because we played so well, and Nebraska played so badly, we jumped from #78 to #69, and Nebraska dropped from #189 to #198.

 

[cometclear]

According to these guys, NU is in, right now: https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/

 

[hoosboot]

Those opponents will not significantly help our resume if that's how the wins and losses play out. Penn State is NET 89, Minnesota is 90, and Nebraska is 198. That's two Q2 wins (@MIN, @PSU), one Q3 win (home MIN), and one Q4 win (home NEB).

At that point, what matters is how well we play. For example - we got no benefit just because we beat a terrible Nebraska team, and they didn't suffer just because they lost to us. But because we played so well, and Nebraska played so badly, we jumped from #78 to #69, and Nebraska dropped from #189 to #198.

Thanks! That's super helpful and interesting. So, gotta pour it on against the worse teams, avoid home losses and getting blown out, and...win.

 

[Styre]

According to these guys, NU is in, right now: https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/

Unfortunately, not really. From the page:

"Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers."

They have NU as an 8-seed.

 

[CSCatFan1]

Per Bart Torvik, our remaining games go in order of hardest to easiest:

Reach games:
@Illinois
@Iowa
Purdue

Probably need to win:
Indiana
@Penn State
@Minnesota

Must-win:
Minnesota
Nebraska

I'd say we need to either beat IU and one of the other road games in that tier plus the bottom two or need a reach win with one from the middle tier in your 4-4 scenario. Would think 5-3 is necessary though for postseason. Big opportunity this week.

I see us going 6-2.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

I see us going 6-2.

I’m with you on this result.

 

[hoosboot]

Per Bart Torvik, our remaining games go in order of hardest to easiest:

Reach games:
@Illinois
@Iowa
Purdue

Probably need to win:
Indiana
@Penn State
@Minnesota

Must-win:
Minnesota
Nebraska

I'd say we need to either beat IU and one of the other road games in that tier plus the bottom two or need a reach win with one from the middle tier in your 4-4 scenario. Would think 5-3 is necessary though for postseason. Big opportunity this week.

Surprising to see @ Iowa be evaluated as more difficult than Purdue at home. Because Iowa is so tough at home or Purdue is vulnerable on the road?

 

[hoosboot]

I see us going 6-2.

Which of Cappy's reach games do you see NU winning?

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

Which of Cappy's reach games do you see NU winning?

NU beat Buttgers, and Buttgers beat Purdue. Therefore, by the transitive property, NU will beat Purdue.

 

[peatymeanis]

Prob a 6-2 finish is needed. I don’t know what justification there is to keep Collins if he can’t make the NIT this year. This is his year. His best guys are all upper classmen and nance is a senior. If not this year, when? It’s not like there’s some studly recruiting class coming in next year. This year is the peak of the cycle.

 

[ricko6543211]

I see us going 6-2.

If we pull that off and finish 10-10, I will happily eat crow and retract my post on wanting to move on from Collins!

 

[ColumbusCatFan1_rivals]

If we pull that off and finish 10-10, I will happily eat crow and retract my post on wanting to move on from Collins!

Yeah, if NU were to finish 10-10 in conference (with a win over Purdue), then you could actually start thinking NCAAs if they were to go on a little run in the BTT.

 

[catcrazy]

Amen to that

 

[phatcat_rivals223240]

Prob a 6-2 finish is needed. I don’t know what justification there is to keep Collins if he can’t make the NIT this year. This is his year. His best guys are all upper classmen and nance is a senior. If not this year, when? It’s not like there’s some studly recruiting class coming in next year. This year is the peak of the cycle.

Agree, except we are stuck with him, regardless. Miniscule chance that he'd get fired if they lose like every remaining game, but even then I doubt it. I think we are stuck with him at least through next year, and probably beyond unless we go like 3-17 in conference next year (plus obligatory 1st round BTT loss).

I'm a flexible guy, if they recover and end up with 7 B1G wins, I'll say 'wait and see'. But I'm just not seeing it. Edit, his last four years have ranged from hugely disappointing to YEESH! But I think we are stuck with him.

 

[TheC]

Agree, except we are stuck with him, regardless. Miniscule chance that he'd get fired if they lose like every remaining game, but even then I doubt it. I think we are stuck with him at least through next year, and probably beyond unless we go like 3-17 in conference next year (plus obligatory 1st round BTT loss).

I'm a flexible guy, if they recover and end up with 7 B1G wins, I'll say 'wait and see'. But I'm just not seeing it. Edit, his last four years have ranged from hugely disappointing to YEESH! But I think we are stuck with him.

I think the next year will be very telling. For starters, I expect NU to finish out another disappointing season over the next month. Those of you who think we will win more than we lose the rest of the way are wonderful optimists who choose not to remember that this is NU hoops we're talking about. Then I could see things going in a few different ways next year...

1) All the guys return and have a special season, in which case Collins is safe again

2) All the guys return, but have another year like this year, but somehow Collins lands a couple really nice recruits, in which case Collins probably gets to stick around, but no one will be happy

3) Same as #2, but Collins has lost any recruiting momentum in which case I really can't imagine he'd be back in 2023-24

4) A bunch of guys from this year's team decide to take their degrees and move on or transfer. This would leave the cupboard extremely bare, likely resulting in a horrible season next year. Collins would have to be relieved at the end of the year.

 

[willycat]

I think the next year will be very telling. For starters, I expect NU to finish out another disappointing season over the next month. Those of you who think we will win more than we lose the rest of the way are wonderful optimists who choose not to remember that this is NU hoops we're talking about. Then I could see things going in a few different ways next year...

1) All the guys return and have a special season, in which case Collins is safe again

2) All the guys return, but have another year like this year, but somehow Collins lands a couple really nice recruits, in which case Collins probably gets to stick around, but no one will be happy

3) Same as #2, but Collins has lost any recruiting momentum in which case I really can't imagine he'd be back in 2023-24

4) A bunch of guys from this year's team decide to take their degrees and move on or transfer. This would leave the cupboard extremely bare, likely resulting in a horrible season next year. Collins would have to be relieved at the end of the year.

#2... I'm happy with CC. Much better than BC and he even stays on campus to meet the recruits. Who else to you have???

 

[Alvious]

Is there even going to be an NIT this year?

 

[phatcat_rivals223240]

I think the next year will be very telling. For starters, I expect NU to finish out another disappointing season over the next month. Those of you who think we will win more than we lose the rest of the way are wonderful optimists who choose not to remember that this is NU hoops we're talking about. Then I could see things going in a few different ways next year...

1) All the guys return and have a special season, in which case Collins is safe again

2) All the guys return, but have another year like this year, but somehow Collins lands a couple really nice recruits, in which case Collins probably gets to stick around, but no one will be happy

3) Same as #2, but Collins has lost any recruiting momentum in which case I really can't imagine he'd be back in 2023-24

4) A bunch of guys from this year's team decide to take their degrees and move on or transfer. This would leave the cupboard extremely bare, likely resulting in a horrible season next year. Collins would have to be relieved at the end of the year.

Let's parse this a bit to include this year's finish. Start with the assumption that Gragg will not ignore current results in order to wait out the contract. This year has to count in that. So the results will be something like:
1) suck: win 1 or 2 more games. This is clearly decremental worsening from last year, during what many of us believe is a near-term peak in terms of team capability
2) don't suck: win 4 games. Obligatory BTT first round loss.
3) do well: win 5-6 games and/or 4 wins plus win 1st round BTT. (I think this is highly unlikely, btw)

I don't think he gets fired this year, barring a complete collapse. but under 1) above, I can see him getting canned with no recovery next year. 3) I think he is safe beyond next year. 2) is the wildcard - slight progress this year, do we collapse next year?

 

[NUCat320]

Let's parse this a bit to include this year's finish. Start with the assumption that Gragg will not ignore current results in order to wait out the contract. This year has to count in that. So the results will be something like:
1) suck: win 1 or 2 more games. This is clearly decremental worsening from last year, during what many of us believe is a near-term peak in terms of team capability
2) don't suck: win 4 games. Obligatory BTT first round loss.
3) do well: win 5-6 games and/or 4 wins plus win 1st round BTT. (I think this is highly unlikely, btw)

I don't think he gets fired this year, barring a complete collapse. but under 1) above, I can see him getting canned with no recovery next year. 3) I think he is safe beyond next year. 2) is the wildcard - slight progress this year, do we collapse next year?

Given the state of the ‘22 recruiting class, I can’t think that there’s any scenario, save a conference tourney win, that could guarantee multiple years of security. Objectively, the performance is not good enough for that.

That said, my over-optimistic side can see NU playing fast-fast-fast next year, with Boo triggering a Paul Westhead offense and scoring 100 points a game and being fun as heck and sometimes winning. (And then also playing Nicholson and Young sometimes.)

Boo is awesome, and anyone who disputes that is silly.

(Seriously, Boo and Berry chucking. Roper and Audige disrupting passing lanes. Beran-Young-Nicholson being winded. How fun is that?)

 

[NUThump]

Given the state of the ‘22 recruiting class, I can’t think that there’s any scenario, save a conference tourney win, that could guarantee multiple years of security.

We may have only 1 available spot left for ‘22.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I think the next year will be very telling. For starters, I expect NU to finish out another disappointing season over the next month. Those of you who think we will win more than we lose the rest of the way are wonderful optimists who choose not to remember that this is NU hoops we're talking about. Then I could see things going in a few different ways next year...

1) All the guys return and have a special season, in which case Collins is safe again

2) All the guys return, but have another year like this year, but somehow Collins lands a couple really nice recruits, in which case Collins probably gets to stick around, but no one will be happy

3) Same as #2, but Collins has lost any recruiting momentum in which case I really can't imagine he'd be back in 2023-24

4) A bunch of guys from this year's team decide to take their degrees and move on or transfer. This would leave the cupboard extremely bare, likely resulting in a horrible season next year. Collins would have to be relieved at the end of the year.

We need some optimism just to cancel out your being a one-man wrecking crew of a pessimist. Have you missed that we have been competitive in every loss but one this year (a fact unlike any other year in our history) and that we are playing an easier upcoming schedule with the deepest team we have ever had? All you need now is “belief with evidence”; sounds a lot easier than Barnett’s mantra, frankly…

 

[TheC]

We need some optimism just to cancel out your being a one-man wrecking crew of a pessimist. Have you missed that we have been competitive in every loss but one this year (a fact unlike any other year in our history) and that we are playing an easier upcoming schedule with the deepest team we have ever had? All you need now is “belief with evidence”; sounds a lot easier than Barnett’s mantra, frankly…

I've been an NU basketball fan for over 30 years. Anyone who is still an optimist after all that has to have taken a lot more drugs than I ever did.

 

[PurpleFaze]

Surprising to see @ Iowa be evaluated as more difficult than Purdue at home. Because Iowa is so tough at home or Purdue is vulnerable on the road?

You never know in sports but I see us having little shot at beating Purdue- it’s just a bad matchup for us.

 

[phatcat_rivals223240]

I've been an NU basketball fan for over 30 years. Anyone who is still an optimist after all that has to have taken a lot more drugs than I ever did.

I'm like an abused child that is always cringing from the next blow. Doesn't matter that I was taken out for ice cream and got a new bike in 2017. The beatings have returned ever since.

 

[CappyNU]

Surprising to see @ Iowa be evaluated as more difficult than Purdue at home. Because Iowa is so tough at home or Purdue is vulnerable on the road?

Road games are tougher than people expect, that's why the NET ratings determine what is Quad 1, 2, etc based on where the game is played. From NCAA's website:

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

For example, per Torvik's site, we have a 49% chance to beat the Gophers on the road and a 76% chance to beat them at home. For Purdue, we had a 10% chance of winning there and we have a 28% chance of winning at home. Iowa is #36 in the AP poll, but the analytics sites plus NET have them as a top-25 team, so due to it being on the road, that game ends up being more difficult than Purdue at home.

 

[Bama Boiler]

Road games are tougher than people expect, that's why the NET ratings determine what is Quad 1, 2, etc based on where the game is played. From NCAA's website:

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

For example, per Torvik's site, we have a 49% chance to beat the Gophers on the road and a 76% chance to beat them at home. For Purdue, we had a 10% chance of winning there and we have a 28% chance of winning at home. Iowa is #36 in the AP poll, but the analytics sites plus NET have them as a top-25 team, so due to it being on the road, that game ends up being more difficult than Purdue at home.

It won’t be… I can assure you. Purdue is elite…

 

[CappyNU]

It won’t be… I can assure you. Purdue is elite…

Try not to lose in the first round of the tourney this year, you make the conference look bad.

 

[Bama Boiler]

We will do our best! Considering Northwestern is the utmost authority when it comes to NCAA tournament strategy. Try to make the NCAA tournament for the 2nd time ever please…it’s embarrassing for Chicago teams, let alone the Big 10’s overall national perception…thanks…