Not worth overreacting to another Duke loss

[zeek55]

As I said in the prediction thread, the last 3 Duke losses had no real impact on the remainder of the season.

2017, we lost to Duke yet finished 10-3. 2018, we lost to Duke yet won the division and finished 9-5. Last year, we finished 3-9.

Non-conference losses only really matter if they affect our bowl position significantly (i.e. knock us out of the NY6 because we're below another Big Ten team), but that hasn't been the case with the Duke losses so just flush the loss again. Now if we finish 5-7, then we can say Duke would've been the difference.

The 8 conference games remaining are all much more important than these Duke games; that was true the last 3 times we lost to Duke, and it's true again this year. Getting another 5 more wins is always the first goal.

On a positive note, we do look a fair bit better than we did last year after Duke, so there should be reason to believe we can get to 6 wins and maybe challenge for the division if we clean up some of the issues with the start.

I'm not yet sold on JON (don't think anybody is), but the real test for his defense is the rest of the conference schedule.

 

[freewillie07]

I believe we can get to six wins and a bowl.

I also believe that beating Duke would have considerably increased our chances of doing so.

It was a blown opportunity and flies in the face of all the “this is a new year” comments after the win over Nebraska. It’s the same old, same old with very little accountability. Super frustrating.

 

[zeek55]

I believe we can get to six wins and a bowl.

I also believe that beating Duke would have considerably increased our chances of doing so.

It was a blown opportunity and flies in the face of all the “this is a new year” comments after the win over Nebraska. It’s the same old, same old with very little accountability. Super frustrating.

I agree to an extent, but rest of the season will show whether we improve as we did in 2017-2018 or don't as we didn't last year.

Last 3 Duke losses have all felt like crap and seemed like important bellwethers at the time, but none of them were in hindsight.

There should still be 5+ more wins on the schedule.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Only bright spot is that this is not a conference game. I am just very disappointed in the running game blocking and the inconsistency in pass blocking. I thought we could control the tempo and clock and win the game between the tackles. The poor tackling and big plays given up actually put us behind the 8 ball instead. The turnovers negated any chance of pulling this out. Just crappy all around.

 

[freewillie07]

I agree to an extent, but rest of the season will show whether we improve as we did in 2017-2018 or don't as we didn't last year.

Last 3 Duke losses have all felt like crap and seemed like important bellwethers at the time, but none of them were in hindsight.

There should still be 5+ more wins on the schedule.

I’ve seen enough to say we are better than we were last year.

Not sure where that will get us, though.

 

[zeek55]

I’ve seen enough to say we are better than we were last year.

Not sure where that will get us, though.

Yeah agree with that completely; just hard to tell since no win is ever guaranteed.

Also doesn't appear that anybody on our schedule besides Ohio State is an absolute world beater. Wisconsin lost to a worse team today than we lost to...

We should have a shot at beating 6-8 more teams on our schedule, but games have to be played and there may be a lot of nail biters on this schedule.

 

[Fanaticat98]

If this loss provides extra stimulus for improvement then it could be redeemed in conference play. Obviously would rather have won, but our team seems to have a frustrating need to take a bad OOC loss in order to wake up and do well later in the season (even in 1995 and 1996).

 

[zeek55]

If this loss provides extra stimulus for improvement then it could be redeemed in conference play. Obviously would rather have won, but our team seems to have a frustrating need to take a bad OOC loss in order to wake up and do well later in the season (even in 1995 and 1996).

Yeah it's always hard to gauge that factor, and that's why looking back at "wait how did we lose to that team in that year?" is mostly a foolish exercise.

A lot easier to look past this Duke loss after 2017-2018 showed it didn't matter much either way.

Those 8 conference games remaining are all more important games as they always are.

 

[DaCat]

Usually the Duke game is a good wakeup call for Fitz.

 

[phatcat_rivals223240]

Usually the Duke game is a good wakeup call for Fitz.

Why does he need one?

 

[stpaulcat]

I believe we can get to six wins and a bowl.

I also believe that beating Duke would have considerably increased our chances of doing so.

It was a blown opportunity and flies in the face of all the “this is a new year” comments after the win over Nebraska. It’s the same old, same old with very little accountability. Super frustrating.

Six wins and a bowl is not an acceptable goal at this point in the program. Have we fans become so accustomed to six wins and a bowl, that's become the standard? 9-3 (or so) and a division or conference championship should be the standard. I believe this team, if they can get it together is capable of better than 6 wins and a bowl this year.

 

[Jaguar 88]

Anything goes this season if you read how the rest of the division played today. It seems that both Wisconsin and Iowa are not the powers they once were. Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue will give us trouble. Like everyone else, I think the new defensive scheme still is a work in progress and will pan out in a season or two. Maybe even by mid season this year. Hope springs eternal. God I really hoped we could have turned a corner early!!! Oh well, there is always next Saturday!!!!

 

[stpaulcat]

As I said in the prediction thread, the last 3 Duke losses had no real impact on the remainder of the season.

2017, we lost to Duke yet finished 10-3. 2018, we lost to Duke yet won the division and finished 9-5. Last year, we finished 3-9.

Non-conference losses only really matter if they affect our bowl position significantly (i.e. knock us out of the NY6 because we're below another Big Ten team), but that hasn't been the case with the Duke losses so just flush the loss again. Now if we finish 5-7, then we can say Duke would've been the difference.

The 8 conference games remaining are all much more important than these Duke games; that was true the last 3 times we lost to Duke, and it's true again this year. Getting another 5 more wins is always the first goal.

On a positive note, we do look a fair bit better than we did last year after Duke, so there should be reason to believe we can get to 6 wins and maybe challenge for the division if we clean up some of the issues with the start.

I'm not yet sold on JON (don't think anybody is), but the real test for his defense is the rest of the conference schedule.

You mean losing to Duke is a good thing? It may in fact be, if it is our Miami of Ohio this year, IF we can avoid another Miami of Ohio (literally). There was some Superb offensive play today--Malik Washington, Gordon, Navarro, Hull, Clair, and others. Hilinski was at times perfect, at others not so much. If this offense comes together, they are going to be great. Hopefully before next year. I'm still concerned about JON, but his defense did very well in the second half, as they did against Nebraska. That's improvement.

 

[TheC]

Six wins and a bowl is not an acceptable goal at this point in the program. Have we fans become so accustomed to six wins and a bowl, that's become the standard? 9-3 (or so) and a division or conference championship should be the standard. I believe this team, if they can get it together is capable of better than 6 wins and a bowl this year.

What are you talking about?! We’re a small high academic school playing in a tough conference. Bowl eligibility is absolutely acceptable.

 

[phatcat_rivals223240]

Anything goes this season if you read how the rest of the division played today. It seems that both Wisconsin and Iowa are not the powers they once were. Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue will give us trouble. Like everyone else, I think the new defensive scheme still is a work in progress and will pan out in a season or two. Maybe even by mid season this year. Hope springs eternal. God I really hoped we could have turned a corner early!!! Oh well, there is always next Saturday!!!!

Like everyone else? I'd wager that a large percentage here doesn't think JON will ever pan out. He is a career failure

Maybe he can be good at something else. There was a great wailing and gnashing of teeth when Jerry Brown was DC. Then, he was promoted to assistant head coach and DB coach, his area of expertise, and he did well. Maybe JON can design uniforms.

 

[stpaulcat]

What are you talking about?! We’re a small high academic school playing in a tough conference. Bowl eligibility is absolutely acceptable.

"We’re a small high academic school playing in a tough conference." This is exactly why we should be aiming higher and doing better than 6 wins and a bowl. If that's what you aim for, that's what you might achieve. And you want to be King?

 

[Jaguar 88]

Like everyone else? I'd wager that a large percentage here doesn't think JON will ever pan out. He is a career failure

Maybe he can be good at something else. There was a great wailing and gnashing of teeth when Jerry Brown was DC. Then, he was promoted to assistant head coach and DB coach, his area of expertise, and he did well. Maybe JON canesign uniforms.

Like everyone else? I'd wager that a large percentage here doesn't think JON will ever pan out. He is a career failure

Maybe he can be good at something else. There was a great wailing and gnashing of teeth when Jerry Brown was DC. Then, he was promoted to assistant head coach and DB coach, his area of expertise, and he did well. Maybe JON can design uniforms.

JON is here for at least this season and next probably, so we are stuck with him for better or for worse. Might as well hope for the best. Until Fitz can quit with the buddy type hiring and go for the best available, he will never get back to even 2018 glory if the JON experiment fails. The JON hiring was totally mind boggling since it seemed to go against Fitz's defensive philosophy and culture altogether.

 

[jensberg]

I’ve seen enough to say we are better than we were last year.

Not sure where that will get us, though.

Could be anything from two more wins to four or five more. Anything from a horrible season to a reasonable one

 

[DaCat]

Why does he need one?

Why Fitz why?

 

[hdhntr1]

You mean losing to Duke is a good thing? It may in fact be, if it is our Miami of Ohio this year, IF we can avoid another Miami of Ohio (literally). There was some Superb offensive play today--Malik Washington, Gordon, Navarro, Hull, Clair, and others. Hilinski was at times perfect, at others not so much. If this offense comes together, they are going to be great. Hopefully before next year. I'm still concerned about JON, but his defense did very well in the second half, as they did against Nebraska. That's improvement.

Well if it helps Fitz evaluate Jon, it might be

 

[Rebel II1]

As I said in the prediction thread, the last 3 Duke losses had no real impact on the remainder of the season.

2017, we lost to Duke yet finished 10-3. 2018, we lost to Duke yet won the division and finished 9-5. Last year, we finished 3-9.

Non-conference losses only really matter if they affect our bowl position significantly (i.e. knock us out of the NY6 because we're below another Big Ten team), but that hasn't been the case with the Duke losses so just flush the loss again. Now if we finish 5-7, then we can say Duke would've been the difference.

The 8 conference games remaining are all much more important than these Duke games; that was true the last 3 times we lost to Duke, and it's true again this year. Getting another 5 more wins is always the first goal.

On a positive note, we do look a fair bit better than we did last year after Duke, so there should be reason to believe we can get to 6 wins and maybe challenge for the division if we clean up some of the issues with the start.

I'm not yet sold on JON (don't think anybody is), but the real test for his defense is the rest of the conference schedule.

Well said!

 

[Katatonic]

Losing to Dook is the type of losses which will keep the Cats out of a NY6 bowl, much less the expanded playoffs.

When Wilbon called Kornheiser during the game, Korn stated that Wilbon was noticeably pissed (as he should have been).

 

[zeek55]

Losing to Dook is the type of losses which will keep the Cats out of a NY6 bowl, much less the expanded playoffs.

When Wilbon called Kornheiser during the game, Korn stated that Wilbon was noticeably pissed (as he should have been).

I agree, but the point I was making is that it hasn't actually yet since there were other important losses in the seasons where we played Duke.

In Fitz's career, the one loss in a "winnable game" that's kept us out of BCS/NY6 was the Michigan State loss in 2020. Before that, probably have to go back to the 2000 Iowa game. Those two were losses to teams with losing records that basically knocked us out of the Rose Bowl or equivalent.

If we go 9-3 this year and finish as the 3rd best team in the Big Ten, then yeah can probably point to the Duke loss like that, but hard to know what the ceiling of this team is.

 

[Figrating]

I'm not yet sold on JON (don't think anybody is), but the real test for his defense is the rest of the conference schedule.

But there is somebody - Pat Fitzgerald. He watched last season turn into a screamin', f'g disaster mostly because of JON and doubled down on him anyway. Might not be quite as bad as last season, but not by much.

Our HC has accomplished a lot, but he has a Greek-tragic weakness. Only God knows how much more of this NU will have to eat.

 

[Katatonic]

I agree, but the point I was making is that it hasn't actually yet since there were other important losses in the seasons where we played Duke.

In Fitz's career, the one loss in a "winnable game" that's kept us out of BCS/NY6 was the Michigan State loss in 2020. Before that, probably have to go back to the 2000 Iowa game. Those two were losses to teams with losing records that basically knocked us out of the Rose Bowl or equivalent.

If we go 9-3 this year and finish as the 3rd best team in the Big Ten, then yeah can probably point to the Duke loss like that, but hard to know what the ceiling of this team is.

B/c of the putrid West, the Cats still have a chance to make some noise in the division, but repeatedly losing to the likes of Dook does have an impact on the perception of the program which affects recruiting (there are those who put the Cats on the same tier as Illinois and Purdue, behind Wisky, Iowa and Minny).

And Fitz won't have the crutch/be the beneficiary of playing in the West for much longer w/ the upcoming additions of USC/UCLA.

 

[Jaguar 88]

B/c of the putrid West, the Cats still have a chance to make some noise in the division, but repeatedly losing to the likes of Dook does have an impact on the perception of the program which affects recruiting (there are those who put the Cats on the same tier as Illinois and Purdue, behind Wisky, Iowa and Minny).

And Fitz won't have the crutch/be the beneficiary of playing in the West for much longer w/ the upcoming additions of USC/UCLA.

I agree with you for the most part, but a reordering of the pecking order of the West might be in order. Minny and Purdue look like they will replace Wisconsin and Iowa this season and maybe longer. Fitz has til 2025 to get the program to 2015-18 level before expansion.

 

[EvanstonCat]

B/c of the putrid West, the Cats still have a chance to make some noise in the division, but repeatedly losing to the likes of Dook does have an impact on the perception of the program which affects recruiting (there are those who put the Cats on the same tier as Illinois and Purdue, behind Wisky, Iowa and Minny).

And Fitz won't have the crutch/be the beneficiary of playing in the West for much longer w/ the upcoming additions of USC/UCLA.

Let's just pray that the new offense is capable of shooting it out with our opponents (or in the case of Iowa, scoring at all). I mentioned it earlier, but what gives me hope is that in the Duke game, we came out slinging it after going down 21. I thought I witnessed a happy evolution, as in previous years when we were getting blown out, we would still try to run the ball, becoming one dimensional, and having no hope of coming back. But, rather than going from one extreme to the other, I do think some balance would be helpful - as the last run by Hull (despite the fumble) showed.

 

[Katatonic]

^ That's the thing tho, isn't it?

Fitz stated that their playcalling changed once they got behind big (had to throw the ball), but that kind of mind set may still work if you had a Hank-led D and were facing the inept O's of Iowa and Wisky, but Fitz should have known that they needed to open The from the start as we're dealing with a JON-led D.

By the time you make an adjustment, you're already behind big and run the risk of running out of time to make a comeback.

 

[zeek55]

B/c of the putrid West, the Cats still have a chance to make some noise in the division, but repeatedly losing to the likes of Dook does have an impact on the perception of the program which affects recruiting (there are those who put the Cats on the same tier as Illinois and Purdue, behind Wisky, Iowa and Minny).

And Fitz won't have the crutch/be the beneficiary of playing in the West for much longer w/ the upcoming additions of USC/UCLA.

Heck after this start to the season (disastrous West start) they may be much more likely to do away with the divisions a year early in 2023 as has been speculated.

Keep the 2023 schedule the same (as made with divisions but choose top 2 teams for the championship based on conference record and tie breakers.

Vote should be in the next few weeks on 2023 divisions.

 

[montana_cat]

Yes, it’s worth “overreacting.” See today’s excrement show vs. Southern Illinois. Two games now that might well foretell a further decline of the program towards mediocrity.

 

[zeek55]

Yes, it’s worth “overreacting.” See today’s excrement show vs. Southern Illinois. Two games now that might well foretell a further decline of the program towards mediocrity.

Not an overreaction.

Program is in big trouble.

 

[jensberg]

Yes, it’s worth “overreacting.” See today’s excrement show vs. Southern Illinois. Two games now that might well foretell a further decline of the program towards mediocrity.

At this rate maybe well below mediocrity

 

[Katatonic]

Can't say I'm entirely surprised by today's bad loss.

Saw too many things in the Nebby and Dook losses which gave me a bad feeling.

As had suspected, the receivers getting open in the comeback against Nebby was more due to incompetence on Nebby's end (particularly their secondary) and UT fans are well aware of Thompson folding under pressure.