Note on NCAA seeding info
- Thread starter GregPickel
- Start date
Perhaps, but both were earned through results. Max lost three times and Aaron didn't wrestle several matches allowing those above him to accumulate better records.
@184, if they wrestle to seed, #3 seed Brooks's path would be:
R1 - #30 seed Matthew Waddell (Chattanooga)
R2 - #14 seed Will Feldkamp (Clarion)
R3 (Quarters) - #6 seed Kaleb Romero (Ohio St.)
R4 (Semis) - #2 seed Trent Hidlay (NC St.)
R5 (Final) - #1 seed Parker Keckeisen (U. of Northern Iowa)
R1 - #30 seed Matthew Waddell (Chattanooga)
R2 - #14 seed Will Feldkamp (Clarion)
R3 (Quarters) - #6 seed Kaleb Romero (Ohio St.)
R4 (Semis) - #2 seed Trent Hidlay (NC St.)
R5 (Final) - #1 seed Parker Keckeisen (U. of Northern Iowa)
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@197, if they wrestle to seed, #9 seed Dean's path would be:
R1 - #16 seed Owen Pentz (N. Dakota St.)
R2 - #8 seed Silar Allred (Nebraska)
R3 (Quarters) - #1 seed Nino Bonaccorsi (Pitt)
R4 (Semis) - #4 seed Ethan Laird (Rider)
R5 (Final) - #2 seed Bernie Truax (Cal Poly)
R1 - #16 seed Owen Pentz (N. Dakota St.)
R2 - #8 seed Silar Allred (Nebraska)
R3 (Quarters) - #1 seed Nino Bonaccorsi (Pitt)
R4 (Semis) - #4 seed Ethan Laird (Rider)
R5 (Final) - #2 seed Bernie Truax (Cal Poly)
@285, if they wrestle to seed, #3 seed Kerkvliet's path would be:
R1 - #30 seed Hayden Copass (Purdue)
R2 - #14 seed AJ Nevills (S. Dakota St.)
R3 (Quarters) - #6 seed Yaraslau Slavikouski (Harvard)
R4 (Semis) - #2 seed Wyatt Hendrickson (Air Force)
R5 (Final) - #1 seed Mason Parris (Michigan)
R1 - #30 seed Hayden Copass (Purdue)
R2 - #14 seed AJ Nevills (S. Dakota St.)
R3 (Quarters) - #6 seed Yaraslau Slavikouski (Harvard)
R4 (Semis) - #2 seed Wyatt Hendrickson (Air Force)
R5 (Final) - #1 seed Mason Parris (Michigan)
Looking at the above paths (which, is a combo of everybody wrestling to seed except a PSU wrestler (unless they are the #1 seed) and each PSU wrestler making it to the Final), I'd say that the toughest paths will be faced by:
Van Ness
Facundo
Dean
Dean, while a returning Champion, may have the toughest path of any PSUer. He should win R1. If he does, in R2 he'll face Silar Allred (Nebraska), who he just lost to in the B1G final. If he wins that, he faces #1 seed, and undefeated, Nino Bonaccorsi (Pitt) in the quarters. And if he wins that, he faces #4 seed Ethan Laird (Rider), who he lost to in December, in the semis. And if he navigates all of that, then he has to defeat the #2 seed to win the title.
Van Ness
Facundo
Dean
Dean, while a returning Champion, may have the toughest path of any PSUer. He should win R1. If he does, in R2 he'll face Silar Allred (Nebraska), who he just lost to in the B1G final. If he wins that, he faces #1 seed, and undefeated, Nino Bonaccorsi (Pitt) in the quarters. And if he wins that, he faces #4 seed Ethan Laird (Rider), who he lost to in December, in the semis. And if he navigates all of that, then he has to defeat the #2 seed to win the title.
What's the problem? The brighter the lights the better Dean wrestles.
No doubt about it, Tom. Just a brutal draw.
Deans losses put him at #9. Focus on who’s in front of you mind set.
So which team has the best likelihood of upsetting PSU? Iowa? if so how was their seeding and draw.
Expect this to happen more often as HS competition just doesn’t cut it for some elite guys… imagine a HS senior rolling around in the NLWC room.
That’s a tough road but Aaron is firing on all cylinders.
Yep, and also getting open tournament experience. Invaluable.
Yeah. Looking at it with fresh eyes this morning, it’s by no means a cake walk but with where he’s at right now I see litttke resistance.
See posts 75 and 76 for pretty fair paths for the Iowa guys.
https://iowa.forums.rivals.com/threads/bracket-release-discussion.414562/page-2
I don’t see anyone coming close to upsetting the Lions this year.
I don't know about that, Iowa looks to have a harder road than us.
I know everyone is shocked with Brooks seed, but the coaches had to know it was coming. He didn't have enough matches for rpi, didn't have enough matches to raise his win percent, no head to head, same conference placement. That is the danger of not wrestling a lot of matches. In the end I really don't think Brooks cares. He knows he is the best and just needs to show it.
Brooks should be fine. Kerk may actually be good we will see how good the Air Force guy really is. Does Shultz beat Parris. Hmmmm .
Dean is in trouble. Terrible seed and crazy hard path so early. If this was football with the sec our wrestlers would be ranked higher. So much for the mighty big ten on wrestling. Seems like it doesn’t count.
Wrestlebacks will be critical for us this year!!
Dean is in trouble. Terrible seed and crazy hard path so early. If this was football with the sec our wrestlers would be ranked higher. So much for the mighty big ten on wrestling. Seems like it doesn’t count.
Wrestlebacks will be critical for us this year!!
If I had to bet my house on 1 Penn State wrestler winning I'm taking Brooks, with 2 others a close 2nd, and 2 more a close 3rd.
I know my numbers are off but you get my drift.
Iowa's draws are far worse than ours. Legit possibility they only get 3 guys (Lee, Woods, Cass) into the quarters.
Not the finals, the quarters.
Meanwhile, sure, Dean got a brutal draw. And Kerk got the 2nd easiest path to the finals of anyone in the field (after Spencer). Parris got all the guys who might threaten Kerk on even a bad day.
Flo's look at Iowa's draws:
Iowa NCAA Wrestling Bracket Reactions - FloWrestling
The brackets are out for the 2023 NCAA Wrestling Championships. Check out Iowa's draws for the NCAA Wrestling Tournament in Tulsa.
197 is a challenge for any seed.
David Carr @ 165 has a tough draw for a #1 seed. He could face #9 seed Shane Griffith (Stanford) in the Quarters, and his semi opponent is likely to come from #5 seed Quincy Monday (Princeton), #13 seed Alex Facundo, or #4 seed Julian Ramirz (Cornell). If he gets past that, he's likely to face either #2 seed Keegan O'Toole (Missouri) or #3 seed Dean Hamiti (Wisconsin) in the final.
Mason Parris @ 285 should have an easy path to the semis, but there he's likely to face either #4 seed Tony Cassioppi (Iowa) or #5 seed Cohlton Schultz (ASU). And if he gets past the semis, he's likely to face either #2 seed Wyatt Hendrickson (Air Force) or #3 seed Greg Kerkvliet.
Bonaccorsi @ 197 should coast in R1, but after that there are a lot of landmines. He's likely to face Braxton Amos (Wisconsin) in R2. In R3 (Quarters) he's likely to face either #8 seed Silas Allred (Nebraska) or #9 seed Max Dean. If he gets past that, he's likely to face either #5 seed Michael Beard (Lehigh) or #4 seed Ethan Laird (Rider) in the semi. And if he gets past that round, he's likely to face either #2 seed Bernie Truax (Cal Poly) or #3 seed Rocky Elam (Missouri) in the Final. #19 seed Cameron Caffey (MSU), #14 seed Jacob Warner (Iowa), #6 seed Isaac Trumble (NC State), or #10 seed Jacob Cardenas (Cornell) may feel otherwise, but while 197 is a mess for anyone, an argument could be made that the bottom half of the bracket is easier than the top half.
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Whoever comes out of the top half, hopefully there's enough left of that guy to compete in the finals.
These are really insightful comments guys. Thanks El-Jefe! Thanks Tom! Great stuff!
Man is this the best time of the year!
After a day or two to digest the brackets, I think PSU is in pretty good shape (obviously was going to be the strong team favorite no matter what).
Dean sliding all the way down to 9 was disappointing - and he, for sure, has a tough path to navigate. Would have been interesting to see where he would have slotted in had he won the match for Allred (how far down could they move the B10 champ, no matter what the other metrics were?). In any event, he has the ability to run a gauntlet - so we shall see.
The rest of the squad, I think, is lined up relatively favorably - no matter what number comes before their name.
Dean sliding all the way down to 9 was disappointing - and he, for sure, has a tough path to navigate. Would have been interesting to see where he would have slotted in had he won the match for Allred (how far down could they move the B10 champ, no matter what the other metrics were?). In any event, he has the ability to run a gauntlet - so we shall see.
The rest of the squad, I think, is lined up relatively favorably - no matter what number comes before their name.
I finally had a chance to focus on Iowa's draws. My quick take:
125: No surprise that Spencer Lee should waltz to the final
133: Brody Teske is the #24 seed. If he wins his R1 match (against a tough #9 seed Micky Phillippi of Pitt), he'll have #8 seed Aaron Nagao (Minny) in R2. I doubt he gets past both of those guys, and if he does, he'll face RBY in the Quarters
141: Real Woods has a very easy path to the semis, where he's likely to face #4 Brock Hardy (Nebraska). Hardy really battled him in the B1G Tourney final. If he gets past Hard, he's likely to face one of #2 seed Andrew Allred (U. of North. Colorado), #3 seed Cole Matthews (Pitt), or #6 seed Beau Bartlett. Woods should score a lot of points for Iowa, and is the favorite to win the title, but he's likely to be challenged in the semis and the final
149: #8 seed Max Murin is a challenge for anybody to evaluate. He doesn't lose many matches, but his offense follows the minimalist philosophy. He should win R1. R2 could be a battle with #9 seed Jonathan Milner (App St.). And if he wins that, he's almost certain to face #1 seed Yianni in the Quarters, and that's almost a guaranteed loss
157: #14 seed Cobe Siebrecht has a very tough path. In R1 he'll face #19 seed Garrett Model (Wisky). If he wins that, he's almost certain to face #2 seed Peyton Robb (Nebraska) in R2, and I don't see him winning that match
165: #6 seed Patrick Kennedy should win his R1 match. In R2, he faces an obstacle in #11 seed Cameron Amine (Michigan). And if he gets past that, he's almost certain to face Dean Hamiti in the Quarters, and I don't see him winning that match
174: #11 seed Nelson Brands is another Iowa wrestler that is tough to analyze. He only has 6 losses on the season, and several of them were very narrow defeats. He should win his R1 match. That should put him up against #6 seed Ethan Smith (Ohio St.). If he gets past that (questionable), then he's almost certain to face #3 seed Mekhi Lewis in the Quarters, and I doubt any objective observer would consider him anything but a big underdog there
184: #12 seed Abe Assad is another Iowa wrestler that wins most of his matches yet rarely impresses. He only lost 4 matches this season. He should win R1. His likely R2 opponent is #5 seed Marcus Coleman (Iowa St.), who he lost to 3-2 earlier this season. And if he wins that, he would likely face #4 seed Trey Munoz (Oregon St.) in the Quarters
197: This entire weight class is a landmine. #14 seed Jacob Warner has #19 seed Cameron Caffey (MSU) in R1. If he wins that (not a given; he won 3-2 in the B1G, then Caffey MFF in the 5th place match), he's likely to face #3 seed Rocky Elam (Missouri) in R2. Enough said
285. #4 seed Tony Cassioppi should win his R1 and R2 matches. If he does that, he's likely to face #5 seed Colton Schultz (ASU). And if he wins that, he's almost certain to face #1 seed Mason Parris in the semis.
In short, Lee is almost a guarantee in the final (and to win). Woods should make it to the final, but is likely to be pushed in the semis. Other than that, none of their guys are favored to make it to the final, and as @El_Jefe pointed out, most of their wrestlers have tough paths just to make it to the Quarters.
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Flo does a nice job of evaluating the seeds for each of the top 10 teams in this article:
www.flowrestling.org
2023 NCAA Wrestling Bracket Breakdown - FloWrestling
A bracket breakdown for each team at the 2023 NCAA Wrestling Tournament.
FWIW, I'm still trying to understand how Austin Gomez fell to a #15 seed. Fans can complain about a lot of the seeds, but that one is crazy.
Millner beat Murin 8-1 at nationals last year. Maybe Murin gets him this time, but this was not a good draw for Iowa.
I think his last 3 matches were losses. Didn't place in a conference tournament. Also 10-4. Didn't qualify for rpi.
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I know the logical components of the ranking, but it's still hard to believe.
The last 3 losses also come with some caveats. The last loss was to Ethen Miller (MD) in the B1G Tourney Consolations, where he was hit with an unnecessary roughness, and Miller could not continue so that becomes a loss by injury. The preceding loss was in the B1G Tourney where he lost 6-5 to Graham Rooks. That also was his first match in about 5 weeks, as he (Gomez) had gotten injured in his match against Yahya Thomas in the Wisky - NW dual in late January.
The flip side of is that during the season, he defeated the #1 seed (Yianni), the #8 seed (Max Murin - Iowa), the #12 seed (Doug Zapf - Penn), and the #13 seed (Van Ness - PSU).
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