Nova or Wisconsin?

[far_away_fan]

Why is everyone so sure that Nova is a #1 seed? When you look at their resume compared to Wisconsin, it's basically a toss-up. Wisconsin lost to Duke and at Maryland both of which are better than ANYONE Villanova played all year. They also lost at Rutgers. That Rutgers loss is comparable to (but maybe a tiny bit worse than) Nova's loss at Seton Hall. Nova's other loss was at Georgetown which isn't bad (except that it was by 20 points, and Wisconsin beat Georgetown on a neutral court). But no matter how you look at it, that loss is certainly worse that either the Duke or at Maryland losses of Wisconsin.

The teams have nearly identical RPIs (with Wisconsin being one spot higher in the ranking). Wisconsin's strength of schedule rank is 10 compared to 24 for Nova. Wisconsin's win on a neutral court against Oklahoma is better than any win of Villanova's (whose best win was at home against Georgetown).

If you take the Duke loss off of Wisconsin's resume, then I think there is no question that Wisconsin is ahead of Villanova. They'd be slightly better or tied in every single useful measure: same record, better wins, better losses, better schedule, better eye-test, Vegas loves them, etc...

But if Nova had played Duke, does ANYONE believe they would have won that game? I sure don't. It seems to me the only reason to seed Wisconsin behind Nova basically boils down to the fact that they lost to Duke -- a team that is far better than any non-conference game Villanova played. (VCU was probably their best non-con opponent.)

I'm not saying that Wisconsin is a CLEAR choice for a number one ahead of Villanova (although I do think they are a better team), but I don't understand why people are so convinced that Nova will be the choice.

 

[nyron]

Watch them play.

 

[far_away_fan]

Originally posted by nyron:
Watch them play.

I'd like to watch them play a really good opponent. Unfortunately, there hasn't yet been a chance.

 

[ukalum_rivals311718]

Originally posted by far_away_fan:


Why is everyone so sure that Nova is a #1 seed? When you look at their resume compared to Wisconsin, it's basically a toss-up. Wisconsin lost to Duke and at Maryland both of which are better than ANYONE Villanova played all year. They also lost at Rutgers. That Rutgers loss is comparable to (but maybe a tiny bit worse than) Nova's loss at Seton Hall. Nova's other loss was at Georgetown which isn't bad (except that it was by 20 points, and Wisconsin beat Georgetown on a neutral court). But no matter how you look at it, that loss is certainly worse that either the Duke or at Maryland losses of Wisconsin.


The teams have nearly identical RPIs (with Wisconsin being one spot higher in the ranking). Wisconsin's strength of schedule rank is 10 compared to 24 for Nova. Wisconsin's win on a neutral court against Oklahoma is better than any win of Villanova's (whose best win was at home against Georgetown).


If you take the Duke loss off of Wisconsin's resume, then I think there is no question that Wisconsin is ahead of Villanova. They'd be slightly better or tied in every single useful measure: same record, better wins, better losses, better schedule, better eye-test, Vegas loves them, etc...

But if Nova had played Duke, does ANYONE believe they would have won that game? I sure don't. It seems to me the only reason to seed Wisconsin behind Nova basically boils down to the fact that they lost to Duke -- a team that is far better than any non-conference game Villanova played. (VCU was probably their best non-con opponent.)

I'm not saying that Wisconsin is a CLEAR choice for a number one ahead of Villanova (although I do think they are a better team), but I don't understand why people are so convinced that Nova will be the choice.

Why not? NCST and Miami beat Duke by double digits; Miami at Cameron. Villanova is a superior team to those two. Using comparative scores like that doesn't mean anything.

 

[far_away_fan]

Originally posted by ukalum:
Why not? NCST and Miami beat Duke by double digits; Miami at Cameron. Villanova is a superior team to those two. Using comparative scores like that doesn't mean anything.

I don't understand your point about comparative scores. I didn't make any such comparisons. I said Nova never played anyone as good as Duke (which is true by any objective measure of how good teams are), and I said that I believe most people think Duke would beat Nova if they played (which I suspect is true as well, but it's hard to know without polling people).

But you seem to be implying that you think Nova would beat Duke. Can you explain why? I am positive Duke would be favored in such a matchup -- maybe even by as much as 6 or 8 points (although I'm certainly not an expert in picking lines).

 

[YouKay]

The Big East is the #2 RPI conference, and Villanova has dominated it, that's why.

 

[ukalum_rivals311718]

You implied that Nova could not beat Duke. I stated that if Miami and NCST could beat Duke; why would Nova not be able to beat Duke?

You sort of compared scores by pointing out that one of Nova's losses (Georgetown) was worse than any Wisconsin loss. I happen to think that a 10 point loss on your home court is about as bad as a 20 point loss on the road. Wisconsin's loss to Rutgers was more than a tiny bit worse than Nova's loss to Georgetown. Rutgers was 2-16 in the Big Ten; which is considered to be highly overrated by nearly everyone on this board.

If VCU is Nova's best non-conference win, who is Wisconsin's best non conference win?

 

[Neue Regel]

Originally posted by ukalum:

You implied that Nova could not beat Duke. I stated that if Miami and NCST could beat Duke; why would Nova not be able to beat Duke?

You sort of compared scores by pointing out that one of Nova's losses (Georgetown) was worse than any Wisconsin loss. I happen to think that a 10 point loss on your home court is about as bad as a 20 point loss on the road. Wisconsin's loss to Rutgers was more than a tiny bit worse than Nova's loss to Georgetown. Rutgers was 2-16 in the Big Ten; which is considered to be highly overrated by nearly everyone on this board.

If VCU is Nova's best non-conference win, who is Wisconsin's best non conference win?

They certainly could. Though N.C. State found out last night that the team they played the first two weeks of January is a far, far cry from the one that ended their ACC Tournament run by halftime.

 

[mcwildcats04]

Originally posted by YouKay:

The Big East is the #2 RPI conference, and Villanova has dominated it, that's why.

Their best win is on the road at Butler (by 3 points) it looks like. No big marquee wins. Let's see how they fare against a top team.

 

[Saguaro Cat]

Wisconsin has two wins against top twenty five teams, eight top fifty teams. Four of those were away from home.

Villanova has four wins against top twenty five teams, eleven top fifty teams. And five of those were away from home.

The resume is just better for Villanova.

 

[far_away_fan]

Originally posted by ukalum:

You implied that Nova could not beat Duke. I stated that if Miami and NCST could beat Duke; why would Nova not be able to beat Duke?

You sort of compared scores by pointing out that one of Nova's losses (Georgetown) was worse than any Wisconsin loss. I happen to think that a 10 point loss on your home court is about as bad as a 20 point loss on the road. Wisconsin's loss to Rutgers was more than a tiny bit worse than Nova's loss to Georgetown. Rutgers was 2-16 in the Big Ten; which is considered to be highly overrated by nearly everyone on this board.

If VCU is Nova's best non-conference win, who is Wisconsin's best non conference win?

1) I implied that Nova would not beat Duke. Of course they COULD beat Duke, but I think they'd be a significant underdog.

2) I pointed out that Nova's loss to lopsided road loss to Georgetown was worse than Wisconsin's losses to Duke and Maryland (since both are top 10 teams and since Wisconsin beat Georgetown).

3) I said that the Rutgers loss was comparable to the Seton Hall loss (not the Georgetown loss). Seton Hall isn't in the hunt for the toruney and is a bad team. Same as Rutgers. I do think Seton Hall is a little better than Rutgers but not meaningfully better. Both are bad losses without either being significantly worse than the other.

4) #15 Oklahoma is the best non-con win for Wisconsin (as I think mentioned in the post you are referencing).

 

[Aike]

Originally posted by SaguaroCat:
Wisconsin has two wins against top twenty five teams, eight top fifty teams. Four of those were away from home.

Villanova has four wins against top twenty five teams, eleven top fifty teams. And five of those were away from home.

The resume is just better for Villanova.

This is RPI, not more sound measures. If we want to say that the committee will go by RPI, that's one thing. But let's not pretend that beating better teams according to RPI means Villanova has a better resume.

For instance, according to Sagarin, Wisconsin is 6-2 vs. the top 25. Villanova is only 3-1. Hmmm. How bout that.

So are you really saying that Villanova has a better resume, or only that the committee will say they do based on RPI numbers?

 

[Aike]

Originally posted by Neue Regel:

Originally posted by ukalum:

You implied that Nova could not beat Duke. I stated that if Miami and NCST could beat Duke; why would Nova not be able to beat Duke?

You sort of compared scores by pointing out that one of Nova's losses (Georgetown) was worse than any Wisconsin loss. I happen to think that a 10 point loss on your home court is about as bad as a 20 point loss on the road. Wisconsin's loss to Rutgers was more than a tiny bit worse than Nova's loss to Georgetown. Rutgers was 2-16 in the Big Ten; which is considered to be highly overrated by nearly everyone on this board.

If VCU is Nova's best non-conference win, who is Wisconsin's best non conference win?

They certainly could. Though N.C. State found out last night that the team they played the first two weeks of January is a far, far cry from the one that ended their ACC Tournament run by halftime.

Which team was it that went to overtime 2 weeks ago vs. 11-22 Virginia Tech?

 

[far_away_fan]

Originally posted by SaguaroCat:
Wisconsin has two wins against top twenty five teams, eight top fifty teams. Four of those were away from home.

Villanova has four wins against top twenty five teams, eleven top fifty teams. And five of those were away from home.

The resume is just better for Villanova.

If you are talking about top 25 RPI, then Wisconsin has two (Oklahoma & Georgetown) while Nova has three (Georgetown and Providence twice).

And if you pick top 60 instead of top 50 (which is just as arbitrary) then Wisconsin and Nova both have 11 wins.

The point of my original post was, their resumes are quite similar. WIsconsin has looked like the better team (to me and many others). They're a final four team from last year that returned most of their team. They lost only three games two of which were to teams that were quite a bit better than anyone that Nova played. They won a game against Oklahoma that was slightly better than anyone Nova played. Nova split with the best team on its schedule (Georgetown) that Maryland beat on a neutral court in their only meeting.

To me there is nothing about the teams or their performances that implies that Nova is better than Wisconsin yet everyone seems to think Nova is clearly going to get the one seed.

 

[marshalfan]

I actually think Nova would be a tougher matchup for us.