The Cats are still solidly in the NCAA field after Saturday's loss to Indiana, and chances are they will stay there.
Story: Northwestern still safe after Indiana loss
Story: Northwestern still safe after Indiana loss
NU still solidly in NCAAs after IU loss; may not need another win after all
- Thread starter lou v
- Start date
This is false reporting, Lou. Haven't you heard? The entire media is calling NU's season a nightmare.
[sarcasm off]
Excellent piece and thank you for the resume comparison.
It's fake news.
Lets just hope Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway aren't announcing the field on Selection Sunday.
If we lose our next 3, and finish 2-7 in our last 9, in what bizarro world does that top a 26-4 Wichita State team that Palm has as one of the last four in? I can't see how we're solidly in if that's on the of bubble as one of the last four in. That just doesn't make any sense to me. As an NU fan, I have basically zero experience in bracketology, so what am I missing here? Can someone who lives in Kentucky or NC or Kansas - where they don't teach bracket science in kindergarten anymore (like they used to) because the kids these days already all know it before pre-school - explain this to me?
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The thing killing the Shockers is they've only played five games vs. Top 100 teams and their SOS is 190th.
But beyond that, Wichita is out right now. For them to take NU's spot, NU would have to fall past them, as well as AT LEAST the last four in, and probably more. That's AT LEAST five schools that would have to leapfrog NU, and probably more because as a 7 seed they are likely well above the last four in.
Piggybacking on Lou's comment, here's a resume comparison (via CBS):
Wichita State
W/L: 27-4 (17-1)
RPI: 40 (Non Con: 91)
SOS: 149 (Non Con: 166)
Top 25: 0-1
Top 50: 1-4
Top 100: 2-4
Last 10: 10-0
Best Win: Illinois State (#33)
Bad Losses (100+): None
Northwestern
W/L: 20-9 (9-7)
RPI: 50 (Non Con: 39)
SOS: 64 (Non Con: 157)
Vs Top 25: 1-4
Vs Top 50: 3-6
Vs Top 100: 9-9
Last 10: 5-5
Best Win: Dayton (#21)
Bad Losses (100+): None
The committee values strength of schedule (SOS) and unfortunately for the Shockers, they couldn't beat Louisville or MSU and teams like LSU and Oklahoma (as well as most of the MVC) fell flat this year.
Note that NU has played a whopping 18 games against the RPI top 100, whereas WSU has had only 6. The current metrics are certainly tilted toward high majors, but that could be changing as early as next year (with the addition of Ken Pom, Sargin, etc).
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The numbers on ESPN's RPI site were a little different -- and maybe since updated -- but the point is the same.
I believe this too but don't want to test the hypothesis! This is a big week and cannot wait for it to unfold. Let March Madness begin!
As others have pointed out on different threads teams like Eastern Washington and New Orleans have turned in decent seasons.
Go Cats!!!
Sorry, I didn't complete my thought. Those teams in those conferences could easily have sunk down to the mid-200s or worse. They have played decently and as a result, allow us to have a decent non-conference slate of tough games (and a few Ws), middle-tier wins (which EWU and NO now belong), and several easy Ws.
I will believe it when I see it. I see that Palm is very confident, and I understand why he is, but I wonder if guys like Palm and Lunardi are looking purely at numbers (not that I think they don't watch games), but it's easy to see that NU is a bit wobbly right now despite its entire body of work.
Many of the people on the bracket matrix are putting NU at 10 and 11 seeds now, and losing three more games in a row are going to push them into scary territory. Just one more, preferably against Michigan (so as to hurt their chances too), and we can breathe.
Many of the people on the bracket matrix are putting NU at 10 and 11 seeds now, and losing three more games in a row are going to push them into scary territory. Just one more, preferably against Michigan (so as to hurt their chances too), and we can breathe.
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Palm is still VERY confident about the Cats. Good questions and NU discussion on the Score this morning.
"There is a lot of - really just - crap between Northwestern and the bottom of the bracket."
Amazing. Oh well, I'll take the weak bubble.
"There is a lot of - really just - crap between Northwestern and the bottom of the bracket."
Amazing. Oh well, I'll take the weak bubble.
Under your "lose out" scenario, there's a good chance that ILL would go into the BTT as the #8 seed, playing NU as the #9 seed, which means ILL would have a chance to beat NU for the third time. Yikes!
What none of this takes into account is upsets in the conference tournaments. There could always be a bunch of upsets in the conference tournaments, like last season, then suddenly we're flooded with bubble teams. Best to just beat Michigan; if we deserve to be in, we'll beat Michigan at home.
I have faith in Lou. Whether the analysis is airtight or not, all I can say is we needed that after the gut wrenching experience we all went through Saturday contemplating the possibility that our NCAA hopes all collapsed due to missed free throws that would have usually gone in, or a buzzer beater that almost made it, or Indiana's fluke 3 pointer that ended the first half, or a questionable call or no call in the last minute of the game. Any one of those.
If any one of the following had happened differently Saturday all the talk would now be about Scottie's double digit point total signaling a resurgence. As it is that point got lost in the noise.
1. Missed free throws that would have usually gone in;
2. A buzzer beater by NU that almost made it;
(Consider the irony - the Lady Cats lost their game on a buzzer beater that Purdue made.)
3. Indiana's fluke 3 pointer that ended the first half;
4. A questionable call or no call in the last minute of the game.
If any one of the following had happened differently Saturday all the talk would now be about Scottie's double digit point total signaling a resurgence. As it is that point got lost in the noise.
1. Missed free throws that would have usually gone in;
2. A buzzer beater by NU that almost made it;
(Consider the irony - the Lady Cats lost their game on a buzzer beater that Purdue made.)
3. Indiana's fluke 3 pointer that ended the first half;
4. A questionable call or no call in the last minute of the game.
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Yep. Last year, NU's low major opponents struggled mightily and it sunk their SOS - to the point of being left out of the NIT. Thankfully EWU and NO have performed well as the season has progressed.
I wondered that also, but I think the conventional wisdom is that the mid-majors are weak also this year. many one-bid leagues.
Both the WCC and AAC have two solid teams predicted to be in the bracket. If Princeton gets upset, you might see them as an at-large bid.
Also, there's some things to be worked out in the Missouri Valley. There's a question whether that is a one-or-two-team league.
However, oddly enough, according to today's discussions, there may need to be six or seven upsets before it affects NU.
On the "upsets in the conference tournaments" I just learned that BYU took down undefeated Gonzaga. I believe they are both in the same conference so there is one more potential conference champion that could steal a dance card since Gonzaga is already a lock.
Here is the link:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...f735ee31334_story.html?utm_term=.6d4fc11287eb
That wouldn't happen. Conference teams can't face each other in the NCAA tournament before the regional finals. They will slot them to ensure it doesn't happen before that.
I meant they might face each other as 8 and 9 seeds in the BIG TEN tournament. How the mighty have fallen. We were talking about a BTT double-bye only ten days ago...
Not if recent history repeats. Carmody would take the Cats with a near-last-place record into the BTT and run off an unbelievable string of upsets to win the tourney. He perfected that strategy last season at Holy Cross --- saving the best for last and keeping his juggernaut under wraps in the regular season. I was drawn to watching those Patriot Tourney games, being as I am retired in a bad weather climate. It was truly amazing. And Bill, as is his style, basically said words to the effect that “it took my guys a while to adjust to and perfect our style of play, but they worked their butts off to do that, kept believing and trusting, and it is wonderful to see them rewarded.”
It looks like it's going to take another Patriot League tournament run to get the Crusaders in the NCAAs again this year. They are 15-16 (9-9) and in fifth place. Their RPI is 204.
Glad to see that you used more subjective terms and conceded the absolute term "punched their ticket".
I cant argue wiith the fact that we may not need another victory. Its still playing with fire as Rothstein said but has a more reasonable opinion than already declaring it a lock.
Good article Lou! Lets hope there arent any upsets in conference tournaments that steal 4-6 spots. Or just beat michigan or purdue or win a BTT game.
Yeah, Lou, thanks for reining it in. With your unbridled optimism, some may have mistaken you for having been excited for, or even a fan of, the team.
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I am fairly certain that Michigan State will end the Illini's modest 3-game winning streak (their best BIG regular season streak in two years!) this week. Michigan State absolutely needs the game, and Izzo generally does not lose those type of games down the stretch. Can't see them playing as poorly as we did, and the Illini have not had a truly superlative effort in months (home vs. Michigan)
Illini hit 13 of 26 threes vs. Nebraska. They are going pretty good right now. Will be rooting hard for Sparty.
I totally agree with that. MSU will carve those guys. If they can control Mr. Hippie Manbun, they won by 20.
Anyone who thinks that a team can get a bid by finishing its regular season wining ONLY TWO of it's final NINE games, one against the weakest team in its league, (2/9=.222 win percentage) -- with exactly ONE 'good' win for the season, which everyday looks less good given the badgers falling fortunes -- is deluding him/herself or smoking "something".
You're forgetting the biggest win of the year, Feli: Dayton. The Flyers are 23-5 and ranked 21st in RPI.
Wisconsin, at No. 32, is NU's second-best win right now.
Wake Forest, by the way, is 45th and gives NU three wins over Top 50 teams.
Computer rankings in general but especially RPI rankings need to be taken with the proverbial grain of salt. Few will seriously consider a win over unranked Dayton (~#35 per Sagarin) more valuable than a win over then #7 and still top 25 Wisconsin.
With only 36 AL-bids to be given out, a "real good" win should be over a top 25 team. This proves you can beat most anyone in the T. NU has one (for now, assuming the Badgers won't drop out).
I know that Mr. Bilas and Mr. Palm have suggested we could lose our next 3 games and still make it in. I understand that the Committtee has de-emphasized "last 10 games". I know that the bubble is soft this year. But, those who think we can get in if we lose the next 3 have to be assuming there are no "bid stealers" at all. In last night's bracket matrix, we dropped to the #2 #10 seed. We were the last at large team on every bracket. That is not a very safe placement to proceed to lose your last 3 games before bid stealers. I love the 'Cats...but come on. We need one more win (and I for one am not certain that win can be against BT #9 or #10 if we get hammered by Michigan, Purdue and BT #1 or #2.). Just my opinion.
I agree it is unlikely, and probably not deserved, if NU loses out. But it isn't "impossible" as some would claim. I prefer to wait until the dust settles and see what happens rather than project doom and gloom.