Apparently KenPom estimates a teams likelihood of winning the game throughout the game. I saw a graph of these probabilities on a Michigan board and near the end of regulation and near the end of the first overtime our likelihood of winning dropped to near 1% and perhaps below 1%. I also like to estimate chances of winning when I watch football and basketball games and I gave us a 5% chance near the end of regulation and less than a 1% chance of winning with 16 seconds left in the first OT. What I didn't consider is Michigan has had trouble in-bounding the ball all season. Anyway, it was almost an impossible win, but Michigan missed free throws, turnovers, and not fouling up three enabled us to pull this game out. Collins and Co. definitely outcoached Bielein and his staff in that game.