I think it's becoming clear this team needs a little help scoring if the other team doesn't walk lot of guys .i think with runners on first and second and nobody out we have to start bunting and play more small ball to help the offense out . What are your thoughts?
Offense approach?
- Thread starter floridahighschoolcoach
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This is only one game but I’m in the camp to Make small ball great again.
If French or Nunez is up, sure.
If Schaffner, Gallaher, Hull, Winslow or Paulsen is up, no way.
If Howe, Nicholson or Hynek is up, TBD.
If Schaffner, Gallaher, Hull, Winslow or Paulsen is up, no way.
If Howe, Nicholson or Hynek is up, TBD.
Nicholson has the highest OPS on the team against ACC teams, he should not be bunting
The important question here is has anybody watched us try to bunt? I feel like it’s about 1 in 3 we get the job done if we do.
Even after the 22 runs today it's still a smart approach. Think about it this way? If game one of a regional you have Decaro and McDuffy then game two two lynch and Glob pitch 4 runs and you have a 95 percent chance to win and if you get 5 runs it's 99.9 percent chance of winning. So think about 4 runs and bunting more would give a better chance of getting to 4 or 5 runs.
The approach, as I asked Gavin and Forbes after......work up the middle or oppo gap, take mistakes to the pull side in the air.....
Like I said in game thread...sometimes the hitters win, more often than not, the pitchers and defense do. It's baseball.
Like I said in game thread...sometimes the hitters win, more often than not, the pitchers and defense do. It's baseball.
Right Tommy but if you don't have lot of power and you bunt runners over it's easier to pick up a single run in multiple innings. The strength of this team is pitching and it's not even close but sometimes it seems we play for the big innings like the 24 team waiting for the 3 run home run. I know it's not what the computer says but I just think with the makeup of this particular team small ball is a great strategy. A coach who passed away a few years ago won several championships at Cal state Fullerton and Texas by bunting and having great pitching. If teams expect bunting and have corners in then sometimes you hit and it gives the hitter more room to find a hole. This team has maybe the best 4 or 5 arms that Carolina has ever had and that's saying a lot.
Hate small ball. A bunt to get on? Fine with that. You only get 27 outs, why give them one?
Well hate it all you want but with great pitching it's perfect. Think about this the last three conference games before the offensive explosion Saturday the Tar Heels scored 2 runs Sunday vs GA Tech , 3 vs Dook Thu and 1 vs Dook Fri ( I am not counting the mid week arms of high point) if they scored 2 , 3, 1 in the first three games of the regional out season is probably over ? This team is going have to manufacturer some runs .
I get it, but we are averaging a little over 8 runs per game. RPI is sitting at 4 and ranked in the top 5 in every poll. We are fine.
Why do you always focus on the worst case scenario? There is just as much, if not more of a chance that we allow 5+ runs in 3 straight games, and can't afford to give up outs by bunting.
Stats show you have a run expectancy of .87 with a runner on 1B and no outs. That run expectancy drops to .67 with a runner on 2B and one out. The numbers are the same if you sacrifice with runners on 1B and 2B. The run expectancy with runners on 1B and 2B and no outs is 1.55. It drops to .96 with runners on 2B and 3B and one out.
There is a time for attempting a sacrifice bunt, but IMO that time is in a tie or 1 run game in the 7th inning or later.
One final comment. Have you seen all of our bunt attempts this year? For the most part, they haven't been pretty.
Two things about your post:
1) ALL the data both in MLB and D1 college baseball confirms that bunting a runner from 1st to 2nd results in fewer expected runs over the season/s than does sacrificing the out. There is some data that says bunting a runner on 2nd with no outs that suggests the expected runs are slightly higher by sacrificing an out. There's an old adage that says play for one and that's likely the most you'll score. Long ball data outweighs small ball data.
2) "maybe the best 4 or 5 arms that Carolina has ever had". I'm not trying to create something, but (in no particular order), Alex White, Matt Harvey, Trent Thornton, Ryan Snare, Rob Wooten, Paul Shuey, Garry Hill, Greg Norris, Scott Bankhead, Dave Lemonds, Jake Knapp, JB Bukauskas, Zac Gallen, Michael Morin, Andrew Miller, Daniel Bard, Robert Woodard, Adam Warren, Andrew Carignan, Billy Paschall, Mike Merritt, Kent Emanuel might like a word with you. I'm dead certain I'm leaving off others, absolutely unintentionally--I know some posters might add to the list. Every one of these guys was a SUPERB pitcher. My point in all that is that I hope we all don't respond to the moment in an irrational and reactive way. Our current staff is also fantastic and I'm not trying to take anything away from them by listing several historically talented Carolina pitchers, but if we forget that there were other highly talented pitchers before them, it becomes easy to set unrealistic expectations for our current staff.
I just want to add some things about this years team and what is standing out the most to me. This club has lost 8 total ball games and 1 series, and we’re doing all of that with a total 1 or 2 top 100 ranked draft eligible guys depending where you look. We don’t have one position player ranked inside the top 100, Gavin is closest at 110 on PG. I would imagine Owen has a good chance to move up some boards with a continuance of the last 2 months. I say all of that to say, we’re ranked #2 in the country with the best series win of any team and #4 in the RPI last time I checked. What Coach Forbes and staff have done with this roster is nothing short of fantastic.
All the above is true but average runs are a an average not what we necessarily score every game . What is the one weakness this team has? Hitting with runners in scoring position? Well with runners on first and second and no outs bunt them to second and third and you don't need a hit simply hit a ground ball or fly ball and it produces a run . I know the computer doesn't like bunting and MLB doesn't do it but Augie Garrido won a lot of games playing small ball in the hot bat era It's true no one is ranked lower than a 100 at there position but there not a Vance , Luke , ackley etc in the lineup that you asking to give them self up . It's old school approach but for sure . Yes I always try and prepare for worst case scenario. I don't think you can go wrong with small ball and what is the average runs per game on weekends this staff is giving up?
It’s been a lifetime since Augie was winning titles, small ball is fine in the later innings. If you want a reference of who does it a ton today, look at ECU. That’s what Godwin builds his teams on, it hasn’t gotten him very far. The bottom line is bunting/sacrificing outs is not a great way to win a bunch of big time meaningful baseball games. 1 run doesn’t carry a lot of weight in today’s game. The worst thing you can do through the 6th inning is give away outs.
Why doesn't the coach just predict the days we're not going to swing the bat well and bunt on those days? Seems easy to me!
I believe there's an occasional time and place for small ball; late game, need one run situations--think Clemson a couple of weeks ago when Tyler Howe squeezed the most important run of the game in. But before we get too enamored with small ball in 2026, in my view, we probably should consider a couple of things. First, this year's team is scoring at very close to the rate of the 2024 team which is the 2nd highest run producing team in the history of Carolina baseball (541 runs to 542 in 2013). This year's team is averaging 8.24 runs/game and 2024 averaged 8.45 runs/game. We score a lot of runs. The other thing, which I think is more reflective of how games are played and won in 2026, is this: of the 125 teams across D1 who have the most sacrifice bunts, 6 are ranked in the top 25 by either D1 Baseball or Baseball America. Of the teams in the bottom 125 (the fewest sacrifice bunts), 15 are ranked in the top 25 in either poll. We are not the only team not playing small ball and it seems pretty evident that teams are committed to long ball to reach their season goals. These coaches are not dummies and they are confident in the data that supports long ball as the more productive offensive style.
Old leaguer I am not doubting you or the data but average runs per game is very deceiving. We score 2, 19 , 3,1 and 22 and for a 5 game average it's off the charts.my biggest concern is winning a regional with this team as you have to play a lot games crammed into a few days . If we get off track do we have the consent hitting to dig out of the hole? Small ball can get you runs without hitting with runners in scoring position which is an issue at times . I think if this team gets out of a regional they will be hard to beat in a super with the pitching set for a weekend. GA tech on the other hand is going be hard to beat in a regional even if they lose a game they will simply hit their way out of it. I think a super regional may be more difficult for GA tech to win?
2 runs again tonight that's against coastal depleted bull pen and middle week arms . Yes the scoring average is fine but it's game to game and we can't have games like this and get out of a regional. So since GT game 3 , 2 ,9, 3,1,22 and 2 runs . Yes the average is good during the stretch but with a line like this it's going be hard to win a regional.
Sounds like you’re arguing that small ball would produce fewer average runs with a tighter distribution. Others have cited plenty of evidence that runs scored would decrease with small ball. But is there any evidence that small ball would increase those 2s and 3s to 4s and 5s?
We didn’t get a leadoff man on until the 9th inning so small ball wouldn’t have changed anything.
Coastal's coaches have committed to small ball. Small ball is not just about bunting. A small ball team also needs to be able to run, commit to productive at bats that advance the runner (sometimes at a cost of personal stats), and plays like hit and run. Coastal has at least 6 players with double digit stolen bases; they run well as a team. Coastal seems content to play for one run at a time. Good for them, that's their call and they built their team accordingly.
Our staff is committed to playing for bigger innings by driving the ball and--hopefully--hitting it out of the park. Most other top 25 level teams are committed to the same style. Asking us to play small ball now makes no sense. Schaffner and Hull run extremely well. For all of Owen's speed he's not instinctive on the bases. Schaffner and Gallaher appear to be our only truly instinctive baserunners right now. They are also two guys expected to drive in runs when the bottom of the order get on base. The bottom of the order hasn't gotten on base enough. Are you going to ask Paulsen to bunt? Maybe Winslow. You're not going to ask our best home run threat, Cooper Nicholson to bunt. Howe is one of our most product hitters with RISP, so doubtful we ask him to bunt. Small ball was not the strategy when building this roster and asking them to do it now would be sort of like asking Tom Brady to become an option QB after a couple of off games. It wouldn't happen and wouldn't work if it did.
Our staff is committed to playing for bigger innings by driving the ball and--hopefully--hitting it out of the park. Most other top 25 level teams are committed to the same style. Asking us to play small ball now makes no sense. Schaffner and Hull run extremely well. For all of Owen's speed he's not instinctive on the bases. Schaffner and Gallaher appear to be our only truly instinctive baserunners right now. They are also two guys expected to drive in runs when the bottom of the order get on base. The bottom of the order hasn't gotten on base enough. Are you going to ask Paulsen to bunt? Maybe Winslow. You're not going to ask our best home run threat, Cooper Nicholson to bunt. Howe is one of our most product hitters with RISP, so doubtful we ask him to bunt. Small ball was not the strategy when building this roster and asking them to do it now would be sort of like asking Tom Brady to become an option QB after a couple of off games. It wouldn't happen and wouldn't work if it did.
Yes oldleager everything that you said is correct and we are built to dive the ball but we are not . Why not bunt with runners on 1 and 3 and no one out . Why not hit and run more ? The team leader in home runs has 11 correct? All I am saying is I don't think we can sit back and play for the big inning with this lineup in the postseason and advance with games of only 2 runs popping up two often.just my opinion and it's a good a fun discussion to have.
What I meant to say why not bunt with men on first and second and no one out ? Yes we have several top 100 position players and average like 8 runs per game but in the postseason you don't have time to let your gap hitters figure it out and I know you score more runs per game over a long season not bunting but in a regional especially games one and two you are facing really good teams best arms and it's harder to score. All I am trying to say is if the Tar Heels get to 4 or 5 runs per game with lunch and Decaro starting and Glob and McDuffy available teams will have a hard time getting to 3 .
Actual runs produced data from the 2023 D1 season demonstrates teams score almost .5 fewer runs with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out than if they had runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. That said, I'm positive that in the post season our coaching staff will evaluate each game or inning on it's own merits. If they determine the opponent's pitcher and defense is not likely to give up many runs, I think you'll see us sacrifice occasionally if we have the right combination of hitter and runner/s on base.