Oil and natural gas 6 month 1 year and five year predictions ?

OSUFanbigtime

Junior
Jun 28, 2002
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One month - $40 to $45 per barrel
One year - $35 to $40 per barrel
Five years - $65 to $75 per barrel

If the republicans can pass a bill allowing U.S. producers to export oil that will help a lot. I can see Iran attacking Sadia Arabia due to oil prices. This is what the super models that I'm hot tubbing with are saying
 

hollywood

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
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I think they'll go low enough and stay there long enough until Putin is shown the door.

Within the year, they will likely be back at the $65-$75 mark. BTW, there is almost certainly more profit to be made by exporting refined crude products than crude directly, so even if Congress were to allow for export of crude products, it's not like a lot of producers and refineries are going to jump on that opportunity.
 

okstatefan1

All-Conference
Feb 5, 2003
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Oil:
6 months - $35
1 year - $55
5 years - $80

Gas:
6 months - $2.50
1 year - $3.50
5 years - $3.50-$4.00
 

poke2001

Heisman
May 29, 2001
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I think oil is about at the bottom. We have a 1% oversupply which caused a 50% sell off. I think much of the downward momentum is just that...group selling. I believe it tests a little lower, maybe $42ish over the next month and then it floats back up to around $50 by end of Q2, $60-$65 by year end. Next year I think we head back up around $80.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
Dec 22, 2013
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Oil:
6 months = $45
1 year = $60
5 years = $90


NG is more weather dependent on a seasonal basis.

6 month = $3.25
1 year = $3.75
5 years = $4.50
 

shortbus

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
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Once I release the instructions on my DIY cold fusion reactor the prices will be 0.

I almost have the finishing touches in place.

If I die mysteriously in the next couple of weeks, you'll know why.
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ells2090

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Feb 2, 2005
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One of the big what ifs is which unstable country blinks first? Venezuela, Iraq, Nigeria, Algeria...All of these countries and others (incl Russia) need $100+ oil to balance their budgets and the Saudis pissing match with the US can only be sustained for so long
 
Dec 22, 2013
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Originally posted by CowboyPhil:
Buy really low and sell really high.
If prices persist like this for a few more months, you'll see oil men have already cashed out a few years back (or those that still have dry powder) doing precisely this to get opportunites form cash starved companies such as Sandridge, for example.
 
Oct 19, 2001
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How can the prediction of $35 oil corralate to $2.50 gasoline. Crude is now $48 and gasoline here in the Houstion area is below $2?
 

hollywood

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May 29, 2001
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kwcowboy- at my local 7-11 it's now below $1.60. Over the last few weeks, it dropped about 2-cents/day until it hit it's low point.

In L.A. however, it's still right around $2.30 gallon.
 

xplor58

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Feb 5, 2003
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Question.... Why is iy a good thing to change the laws to allow for the export of crude oil. I would think it is not in the best interest of the US. Wouldn't that allow China to come in and buy up reserves like they have elsewhere?
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Dec 22, 2013
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Originally posted by poke2001:
Gas = Nat gas not gasoline ITT.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
I'm well aware of that. I'm also aware that UGA is off more than 50% over the last 52 weeks, and that it tends to rise sharply when prices come off their bottoms.
 

OSUIvan

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Dec 10, 2002
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Originally posted by kwcowboy:
How can the prediction of $35 oil corralate to $2.50 gasoline. Crude is now $48 and gasoline here in the Houstion area is below $2?
There was a picture on reddit of a guy that had $ .89 gas , he said it was not due to a rewards card, but it's the internet so he must be right. =]
 

poke2001

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May 29, 2001
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Gasoline at .89 would be sold at a huge loss to the station. There is anywhere between 30 cents and almost $1 in fed, state, local taxes, and then the raw gasoline price of about $1.35 before it hits a terminal to get additives.
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Dec 22, 2013
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Originally posted by inspoke:

What is UGA and XOP?
ETF's.

UGA is United States Gasoline Fund LP; it's designed to track in percentage terms the movements of gasoline prices (it tracks RBOB, the commodity unleaded gasoline).

XOP is a SPDR which tracks the total return performance of the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index.
 

ells2090

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Feb 2, 2005
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Originally posted by osumark:
I work for Devon. We've hedged our oil prices.
Posted from Rivals MobileDVN is just north of 50% hedged on oil for 2015. This % will go up with CAPEX cuts but there will still be a cash flow hit. The problem is 2016. I know PXD and NFX have a decent amount of hedge protection (near 50%) but most have little to no hedges in place that far out while the curve was in backwardation. The company I work for has the same 2016 dilemma but it will be survival of the fittest (ample liquidity, low leverage) if we don't see a rally 2H15/1H16.
 

purkey

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
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I work for Devon. We've hedged our oil prices.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
don't you think most have as well? hedged. Doesn't all that change around Jan 1? I guess it depends on when you hedged but I seem to remember a lot of guys getting nervous around that date.
 

Rdcldad

Heisman
Oct 13, 2015
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Yes, every smart company is hedged on both sides.

devon was smart 15 years ago

i’m sure their people love looking at stack and scoop out the windows

just as sure the northeast side of the building over looking logan and payne county is blacked out
 

purkey

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
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I think they have activity in both those plays but not sure how much. Their building downtown is probably half empty I bet.
 

Rdcldad

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Oct 13, 2015
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I think they have activity in both those plays but not sure how much. Their building downtown is probably half empty I bet.

except for a honeypot west of calumet they got the crumbs

they were gung ho on **** wells that crashed in a month in payne county losing millions

they knew they were drilling crap yet kept right on after it

while continental and newfield hit it big stack and scoop

every c-level exec shoulda been unceremoniously shown the door
 

Colorado_Poke

All-American
Jul 29, 2006
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they knew they were drilling crap yet kept right on after it
This phrase could be applied to the vast majority of the industry. Institutional investors finally called ********, hence why there's been a bloodbath in equities the last 6+ months.
 
Jun 11, 2001
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Big boys gonna buy up the little ones. PE money gonna dry up. Permian gonna start coming in under projections. Lack of investment in fracking equipment in recent years. Cost to drill continuing to decrease.

Ready for another boom in a few years.
 

Pokes15

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Aug 28, 2006
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except for a honeypot west of calumet they got the crumbs

they were gung ho on **** wells that crashed in a month in payne county losing millions

they knew they were drilling crap yet kept right on after it

while continental and newfield hit it big stack and scoop

every c-level exec shoulda been unceremoniously shown the door

No one hit it "big" in the STACK no matter what the press releases tell you. Just looking at the rig count will show you that.
 
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purkey

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
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Chesapeake warning today that if prices stay at this level they are going to have a hard time maintaining debt ratios. There is substantial doubt they would be able to continue as a "going concern"....as they put it. I guess they have a lot of alternatives on what to do if that happens.