On the confidence of 8A rankings

[bgoss6474]

I think I've got evidence that challenges the confidence we have in the 8A rankings. It's not a new thought to say that rankings are deceptive, but I put these scores out there just to question confidence in current 8A thinking:

Loyola 44 MS 43
NT 27 MS 21
NT 14 York 10
HC 35 York 7
GW 42 York 7
OP 34 York 17

I'm not suggesting by these scores alone that confidence in the rankings should be rethought. Nor am I trying to focus only on wss teams compared to Loyola/NT/MS. I'm just curious as to what explanations can save the current rankings and these scores. Maybe it's because NT and York played week 1, when most teams aren't firing on all cylinders. I'm not sure, but would like to hear any thoughts on this.

 

[mchsalumni]

I think one of the big problems with Hinsdale Central is historical. There seems to be a pattern that dates back to the 80s. The argument that all teams are different? Valid, but when you see a pattern with a given team it tends to follow through in the rankings. Just my opinion.

 

[pjjp]

Maybe it's because NT and York played week 1, when most teams aren't firing on all cylinders. I'm not sure, but would like to hear any thoughts on this.

I think you touched on a key to the current rankings in the above quote. Look at Loyola. Yes, they struggled with MS, but it was early in the year when they seemed to have some defensive issues to work out. IMO, Holecek has proven himself to be one of the top coaches in the state. Look at his recent record. Also, watch how his teams improve throughout the year. This year the major improvement seems to be on the defensive side of the ball, which is his primary area of expertise. The current Rambler defense is playing at a much higher level than at the beginning of the year.

 

[capnbillhitters]

From my view which is limited to the last seven years, HC, OPRF and to a certain extent LT, you have football teams led by guys who were stars in Winter sports. From the outside looking in, it almost seemed like those schools had no interest in playing football in late November.

HC has had basketball and wrestling studs and OPRF, well, wrestling is king. LT has seemed to be a few pieces away from a deep run lately. Having been around a few deep runs, it is incredibly difficult to keep guys focused for 14 weeks after a long summer slog.

All of that adds up to eye rolls from "experts" when teams put together regular season runs. In this particular case, the NT/York game was a disaster of miscues and mistakes. York had some spirited players but NT took better advantage of the miscues. By the time York got to GW, GW was coming off a bad win at HS and was looking to prove something. If you look at OPRF's schedule, they played four patsies after Simeon and got a wake up call from a battle tested York team. OPRF is now clicking on offense and could be dangerous.

The team that appears to have developed the most is HC. They were unimpressive against DGN but something seems to have happened with their QB Bean. And it happened just before halftime vs GW. Where earlier passes sailed, they now were on target. Where he had been tentative to run, he now called his number when ever HC needed a big play. He engineered two 2-minute drills and OT with supreme confidence when HC QBs of past seemed more ready for basketball. Bean has to enter the discussion for state POY and if he stays focused on football, you might get many chances to catch him in post season.

I can't speak to Loyola but having played or seen all these teams live and on film, HC looks to have the best balance to compete with anyone. OPRF will put a ton of points on anyone they play but D weak. LT will now be the dark horse that could make a deep run if Bryant catches a hot hand and the team stays focused.

GW gets key guys back on D while the offense has found the recipe and playmakers to keep teams off balance and make them pay for selling out on the run.

Probably more than you asked for but the last three weeks lasted about a year on this side of the fence.

 

[bgoss6474]

From my view which is limited to the last seven years, HC, OPRF and to a certain extent LT, you have football teams led by guys who were stars in Winter sports. From the outside looking in, it almost seemed like those schools had no interest in playing football in late November.

HC has had basketball and wrestling studs and OPRF, well, wrestling is king. LT has seemed to be a few pieces away from a deep run lately. Having been around a few deep runs, it is incredibly difficult to keep guys focused for 14 weeks after a long summer slog.

Very interesting perspective. It's a huge feat to have a group of kids still bought into the program come November. I've gotta imagine that maintaining the focus turns in large part on the coaching staff. If so, small wonder GW hasn't seemed to have issues on that end. Also appreciate the insights into the NT/York game, I hadn't heard anything of it, but the score stuck out to me after this past weekend.

I'm excited to see HC-OPRF. Over the past few years I've noticed that for whatever reason HC doesn't match up as well against OPRF compared to GW. But things could be different this year. HC's run defense/pass rush has been shadowed by Bean's great QB play, but #5, #40/#42 and a couple others have been wreaking havoc for HC's defense. Given that, I think you're probably right about HC, but I think we'll only know for certain come wk 9.

One thing is for certain, and that's that all the WSS teams will be ready to play competitively with anyone in the playoffs.

 

[capnbillhitters]

#5 is the WSS Defesive POY in my book.

I have no idea about what went into the final call on 2pt conversion play for GW, but if I was making that call, the image of #5 blowing up the cut back lanes would have moved me to minimize his impact.

Great ball player with elite instincts.