Oregon, it is

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

I agree. But I've been around these parts long enough to know it won't be pretty on this board if and when we lose.

You won't see me whining. I didn't think we would see the second weekend once I heard Amile was out for good. Last year I said I would be happy with a Final 4 appearance and this year it was a Sweet 16.

Anyways, I just hope we get hot in the 2nd half of this game, not the first half. If Luke/Matt can give us 22+, we should win.

 

[Dahntay#1]

I agree, heck I've enjoyed all of them! The only thing I've disliked was the last game when a lot of our posters were calling for Matt to be out of the game. I know he's not the player he was before he got hurt, but I've always thought he played good defense and he's another body we need.

I at some level understand and appreciate posters standing up for the players no matter how bad they are playing. I just don't see how anyone who has watched every game this season can say that he is helping us at the moment. I mean, I honestly don't think we win the UNC game if he doesn't get hurt. Of course I didn't want him to get hurt but I think we lose if he is in the game. I hope he can help us down the stretch but watching every minute of every game this season, I am not optimistic.

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

We were both 1 seeds for that game, but not sure who was technically lower.

The last time we beat a higher numbered seed was 1990, #3 seed Duke beat #1 seed UConn to get to the Final Four. We did it the year before in 1989 as a #2 seed, beating #1 seed Georgetown.

We just haven't been in many tourney games as the lower seed, a good thing.

Wow.

Also, we haven't lost too many games as the lower seed. Just three times since the UNLV loss (not counting the '99 game which should not be named).
1994: 2 seed we lost to Arkansas (1 seed)
2003: 3 seed we lost to Kansas (2 seed) --- I don't remember that game for some reason...
2013: 2 seed lost to Louisville (1 seed)

 

[HuffyJB]

Wow.

Also, we haven't lost too many games as the lower seed. Just three times since the UNLV loss (not counting the '99 game which should not be named).
1994: 2 seed we lost to Arkansas (1 seed)
2003: 3 seed we lost to Kansas (2 seed) --- I don't remember that game for some reason...
2013: 2 seed lost to Louisville (1 seed)

The 2003 game was the Nick Collison/Kirk Heinrich (sp.) Kansas team that went on to lose to Carmelo Anthony's Syracuse team in the championship. Collison went bananas on Duke and had a 20/20 kind of game if I remember correctly.

Those numbers really show the quality of seeding Duke teams have earned. Impressive.

 

[DukeDenver]

It will really suck not having K. I hope he routinely comes to games just to make us Duke lifers feel better. I just can't imagine another face on that bench.

 

[dukiejay]

We were both 1 seeds for that game, but not sure who was technically lower.

The last time we beat a higher numbered seed was 1990, #3 seed Duke beat #1 seed UConn to get to the Final Four. We did it the year before in 1989 as a #2 seed, beating #1 seed Georgetown.

We just haven't been in many tourney games as the lower seed, a good thing.

I think we beat a top-seeded Purdue team with Glenn Robinson in 1994 to reach the Final Four, didn't we? I could be wrong, but I thought they were #1 and we were #2.

 

[HuffyJB]

Wow.

Also, we haven't lost too many games as the lower seed. Just three times since the UNLV loss (not counting the '99 game which should not be named).
1994: 2 seed we lost to Arkansas (1 seed)
2003: 3 seed we lost to Kansas (2 seed) --- I don't remember that game for some reason...
2013: 2 seed lost to Louisville (1 seed)

To further that general idea, since 1988 Duke has lost 22 tournament games. 14 of those 22 (63%) have been to teams in or going to the Final Four, and that number even includes opening round losses in 07, 12, and 14.. That means about two-thirds of the time, it takes a Final Four-caliber team to send Duke home.

 

[dukiejay]

I at some level understand and appreciate posters standing up for the players no matter how bad they are playing. I just don't see how anyone who has watched every game this season can say that he is helping us at the moment. I mean, I honestly don't think we win the UNC game if he doesn't get hurt. Of course I didn't want him to get hurt but I think we lose if he is in the game. I hope he can help us down the stretch but watching every minute of every game this season, I am not optimistic.

He was awful on Saturday. Awful. And he'd probably be the first one to admit it. But prior to getting hurt he had been very solid. We don't beat UVA or Louisville at home without his defense on Brogdon and Lee.

I agree, though, that since his injury he has really struggled and just looks completely out of sorts. On Saturday there was a play near mid-court where Yale got a fastbreak and Matt made a really awkward and slow dive at the guy with the ball. He just looks slow out there. He didn't become the player he is right now because he completely forgot how to play. Something is clearly wrong with him.

Lastly, I don't mind pointing out when a guy is playing poorly or needs to be better. But in the game thread on Saturday there were posts going over the line. Matt doesn't "suck", he's not "horrible" or "worthless" and we shouldn't hope for him to re-injure his ankle. All of those things were said here and they don't fly as long as I'm moderating.

 

[GAAP_rivals]

I just don't see how anyone who has watched every game this season can say that he is helping us at the moment.

Matt's done some good things you may have missed in the 8 games since his injury:
* 15 for 34 on 3 pointers (44.1%)
* 15 assists to 8 turnovers (nearly 2:1 ratio)
* 10 steals

 

[nets on nets on nets]

Matt is and always will be limited athletically as a Division 1 basketball player playing for one of the best programs in the country, there is no way around that. He has never had a dunk in his college career. However, it looks obvious that he is not playing 100% healthy, I'm assuming it's still the ankle.

We do not need Matt to be Lebron James, we need Matt to play his role. And his role is to defend the opposing teams best perimeter player, to hit open 3's, and to not turn the ball over. Matt is fully capable of doing all these things, even when he is not 100% healthy, and that is pretty remarkable in itself.

With all that said, we will not beat Oregon if the Matt from this Saturday shows up, plain and simple.

 

[Dukesince90]

He was awful on Saturday. Awful. And he'd probably be the first one to admit it. But prior to getting hurt he had been very solid. We don't beat UVA or Louisville at home without his defense on Brogdon and Lee.

I agree, though, that since his injury he has really struggled and just looks completely out of sorts. On Saturday there was a play near mid-court where Yale got a fastbreak and Matt made a really awkward and slow dive at the guy with the ball. He just looks slow out there. He didn't become the player he is right now because he completely forgot how to play. Something is clearly wrong with him.

Lastly, I don't mind pointing out when a guy is playing poorly or needs to be better. But in the game thread on Saturday there were posts going over the line. Matt doesn't "suck", he's not "horrible" or "worthless" and we shouldn't hope for him to re-injure his ankle. All of those things were said here and they don't fly as long as I'm moderating.

He was awful on Saturday. Awful. And he'd probably be the first one to admit it. But prior to getting hurt he had been very solid. We don't beat UVA or Louisville at home without his defense on Brogdon and Lee.

I agree, though, that since his injury he has really struggled and just looks completely out of sorts. On Saturday there was a play near mid-court where Yale got a fastbreak and Matt made a really awkward and slow dive at the guy with the ball. He just looks slow out there. He didn't become the player he is right now because he completely forgot how to play. Something is clearly wrong with him.

Lastly, I don't mind pointing out when a guy is playing poorly or needs to be better. But in the game thread on Saturday there were posts going over the line. Matt doesn't "suck", he's not "horrible" or "worthless" and we shouldn't hope for him to re-injure his ankle. All of those things were said here and they don't fly as long as I'm moderating.

I couldn't have said it better. It seems like every game that we lose or it gets tight, we have some posters calling out players and making them the escape goat. Heck, everyone is going to have some off games at times. I thought Matt was having an excellent year until his injury. Now he's really pressing too hard and probably thinking about things too much. He's a big spoke in Duke's wheel this year and last year.

 

[Dattier]

I think we beat a top-seeded Purdue team with Glenn Robinson in 1994 to reach the Final Four, didn't we? I could be wrong, but I thought they were #1 and we were #2.

Yeah, I think DukeDenver overlooked that one.

We were the higher ranked 1-seed vs Wisky last season and vs MSU in the '99 semifinal. I think they used to determine who the home team was according to who was closest, but that doesn't make sense, either, what with the FF being in Tampa and all.

 

[Willcampbell]

Oregon will be the first #1 to go down! Go Duke!
OFC

 

[Dahntay#1]

Matt's done some good things you may have missed in the 8 games since his injury:
* 15 for 34 on 3 pointers (44.1%)
* 15 assists to 8 turnovers (nearly 2:1 ratio)
* 10 steals

So you think he is playing well?

 

[pisgah101]

I think we get the shootout with OU Saturday and it'll be awesome

 

[nets on nets on nets]

I think we get the shootout with OU Saturday and it'll be awesome

If OU wants to have a 3 point contest...WE WILL GIVE THEM A 3 POINT CONTEST!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[duke0527]

line up to -3 now

 

[aah555]

With regard to Matt's value, I think it depends entirely on who the other team starts on the wing and who is making perimeter shots. Against a team like Oregon that has a star wing (Brooks), Matt's a very important player b/c he's got the strength, athleticism and anticipation to stay with them -- which Kennard does not always have. Further, as bad as Matt can be at times offensively, Kennard's frankly a lot more harmful on his bad days -- b/c, unlike Matt, Kennard seems to be off far more often than he's on. In fact, if you look back at his seasonal numbers, Kennards' 31.8% 3 pt. percentage (which is already not good) is actually being artificially inflated by a couple contests where he was really feeling it -- e.g., Utah State, the UNC games, ND. On most nights, Kennard's really only a 20-25 3 pt. shooter.

Beyond needing Grayson / BI to play well, Kennard is always a huge X factor; as he gives us an important 3rd scoring punch that can take some of the load off our stars.

 

[aah555]

line up to -3 now

That makes more sense. I thought the original line seemed far too close. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this drafts to around 4 or 4.5.

 

[dukehokie]

So you think he is playing well?

I don't think he's playing as horribly as some are making it seem. Has he been good? Not really. Has he been horrible? Not really. He just hasn't made a huge contribution consistently, though I think he did a very nice job on Makai Mason. But that's just me.

 

[crazyduke3]

Our wins and loses almost always depend on somebody besides Grayson and Brandon steps up and makes big time contributions. Consider Marshall from round 1 as exhibit A.

 

[DukeDenver]

I think we beat a top-seeded Purdue team with Glenn Robinson in 1994 to reach the Final Four, didn't we? I could be wrong, but I thought they were #1 and we were #2.

Indeed, I missed that one. I assumed we were a 1 seed that year. Damn Bill Clinton rooting on Arky in the Final still pisses me off. That was an athletic team.

 

[DukeDenver]

I don't think he's playing as horribly as some are making it seem. Has he been good? Not really. Has he been horrible? Not really. He just hasn't made a huge contribution consistently, though I think he did a very nice job on Makai Mason. But that's just me.

I judge Matt in terms of his past performances. He was better last season, and has shown flashes throughout this year. It is clear that his body is to blame for his sloppy play; he looks stiff and heavy at times. Whether that is his fault or not is irrelevant since none of us know the guy. He gives max effort out there, and Coach K clearly respects him. For those last two reasons, it is disrespectful to trash the guy. General frustration seems more appropriate. Most on here seem to agree. We all just want him lean and mean next year. His and Amile's leadership will be huge.

 

[crazyduke3]

When qualifying his defense also consider his fouls. Like Tyler Thornton, when you foul a lot, it's not especially good defense. I had hoped the week off would rejuvenate Matt yet it didn't. We had to have him to survive the dance last year, the same is true this year. Guys have rough patches in a season sometimes it lingers long. He can still do us a lot of good I believe.

 

[LongTimeDukeFan]

Well what is REALLY irritating is that I had Oregon losing that game! DANG!! That blew my perfect bracket.

sigh, I guess Duke winning is my consolation....

Stay out of foul trouble
Come up with a real game plan when they press
Create turnovers, don't make turnovers

 

[WI#1Dukie22]

A few things, some not debatable!

Duke will have the following Thursday night:

The best coach in the world on the sidelines.
The best 2 players on the floor (BI, Gray)
The best rebounder. (Plum lord)

That alone is enough for me to feel pretty good. Oregon is more nervous then Duke, that helps as well

 

[Anon1728003274]

A few things, some not debatable!

Duke will have the following Thursday night:

The best coach in the world on the sidelines.
The best 2 players on the floor (BI, Gray)
The best rebounder. (Plum lord)

That alone is enough for me to feel pretty good. Oregon is more nervous then Duke, that helps as well

Like your breakdown....

OFC

 

[pisgah101]

A few things, some not debatable!

Duke will have the following Thursday night:

The best coach in the world on the sidelines.
The best 2 players on the floor (BI, Gray)
The best rebounder. (Plum lord)

That alone is enough for me to feel pretty good. Oregon is more nervous then Duke, that helps as well

#Facts

 

[kwyjibos13]

Duke being Duke, they don't get to be the "plucky underdog" very often. When you are a consistently high seed, wins over higher seeds can usually only come in the last weekend or so. Does a #1 beating a #1 (last year's National Championship) count?

No, we were a higher one seed...

 

[Get Nasty]

I'm interested to see how duke does vs the full court and or 3/4 court press. They have a good bit of time to prepare for it. Also, if they are pressing I'm curious to see if K starts Thornton or how long until he brings him in. Duke struggled in the 2nd half with matt, luke, and grayson as the guards. They all made mistakes, but I do believe matt is a liability when being pressed. He can't get by anyone when dribbling and that definitely is a plus to have when beating the press. Matt's strengths are in a slower game, where he is guarding a guard reliant on one or both of size and smarts. Matt has solid size for a guard and is very smart, he struggles against quick players. Oregon is quick and this could be an up and down game if K wants it to be or if Duke isn't handling the press great.

We shall see soon.

 

[Anon1728003274]

I'm interested to see how duke does vs the full court and or 3/4 court press. They have a good bit of time to prepare for it. Also, if they are pressing I'm curious to see if K starts Thornton or how long until he brings him in. Duke struggled in the 2nd half with matt, luke, and grayson as the guards. They all made mistakes, but I do believe matt is a liability when being pressed. He can't get by anyone when dribbling and that definitely is a plus to have when beating the press. Matt's strengths are in a slower game, where he is guarding a guard reliant on one or both of size and smarts. Matt has solid size for a guard and is very smart, he struggles against quick players. Oregon is quick and this could be an up and down game if K wants it to be or if Duke isn't handling the press great.

We shall see soon.

Get right on, and so glad you made the point about Duke has time to prepare...One of the great stories in college hoops I still think is the time K had to prepare for UNLV in '91...The man is a genius and given time to get his squad ready is up for ANY CHALLENGE!

 

[nets on nets on nets]

I'm interested to see how duke does vs the full court and or 3/4 court press. They have a good bit of time to prepare for it. Also, if they are pressing I'm curious to see if K starts Thornton or how long until he brings him in. Duke struggled in the 2nd half with matt, luke, and grayson as the guards. They all made mistakes, but I do believe matt is a liability when being pressed. He can't get by anyone when dribbling and that definitely is a plus to have when beating the press. Matt's strengths are in a slower game, where he is guarding a guard reliant on one or both of size and smarts. Matt has solid size for a guard and is very smart, he struggles against quick players. Oregon is quick and this could be an up and down game if K wants it to be or if Duke isn't handling the press great.

We shall see soon.

Oregon only presses when they are losing near the end of the game. So if we do see the press, that is a good thing!!!!
I am most concerned with their match up zone, we tend to settle for ALOT of 3's when teams zone us, and a cold shooting night could be death.
Also, the 2 long athletic shot blockers worry me that Grayson/Brandon won't be able to finish at the rim as easily as they normally do.

 

[Get Nasty]

Oregon only presses when they are losing near the end of the game. So if we do see the press, that is a good thing!!!!
I am most concerned with their match up zone, we tend to settle for ALOT of 3's when teams zone us, and a cold shooting night could be death.
Also, the 2 long athletic shot blockers worry me that Grayson/Brandon won't be able to finish at the rim as easily as they normally do.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought they were 3/4 pressing in the first half Sunday night? Also, duke has struggled against good pressing teams away from home this year, especially against Yale (NOT A GOOD PRESSING TEAM). I just don't think they were ready for it vs Yale. After watching duke struggle against the press I would assume Oregon may employ that a bit in their game earlier than normal.

With this team a cold shooting night is death vs zone or not. Actually against yale we stopped shooting the 3 in the second half and that was almost death. I'll take duke all day in a 3 point shooting contest.

Grayson and Brandon haven't been finishing at the rim very well recently. They just need to make sure they get it over the defender therefor allowing for a good chance at offensive rebound, also, getting fouled helps too.

 

[DukeDenver]

Let's hope Grayson is canning his threes! We look very good when that happens.

 

[Anon1728003274]

#Facts

My man Pisg ALWAYS gives me cofidence with his positiv outlook!!

Fellow OFC troops do like I do- catch a nap Thurs, and lets root the boys from Methodist Flats on to victory over those Sittin Ducks Thurs nite!!

OFC

 

[nets on nets on nets]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought they were 3/4 pressing in the first half Sunday night? Also, duke has struggled against good pressing teams away from home this year, especially against Yale (NOT A GOOD PRESSING TEAM). I just don't think they were ready for it vs Yale. After watching duke struggle against the press I would assume Oregon may employ that a bit in their game earlier than normal.

With this team a cold shooting night is death vs zone or not. Actually against yale we stopped shooting the 3 in the second half and that was almost death. I'll take duke all day in a 3 point shooting contest.

Grayson and Brandon haven't been finishing at the rim very well recently. They just need to make sure they get it over the defender therefor allowing for a good chance at offensive rebound, also, getting fouled helps too.

I'm not gonna act like an Oregon basketball expert, I have seen them play less than 10 games. But I do know that they did not press at all during the Pac12 tournament (maybe they wanted to rest since they were playing 3 games in 3 days, maybe it was becuase they were crushing teams) and they did not press when I watched them play Arizona during the regular season.

I tend to agree with you in that I believe Oregon will at least attempt to 3/4 court press us, and if desperate, press us full court. This does definitely worry me. Obviously the main worry is we don't start a true PG, and though DT has nice handles, he seems to always have 1 or 2 really really bad turnovers in the second half of games. And Grayson has also been very careless with the rock at the end of our past few games, that cant happen.
Lastly, when teams pressure us beyond half court, it seems to really affect Brandon. He just isn't there from a comfortable standpoint handling the ball against intense pressure. He is MUCH more comfortable catching the ball around the 3 point line and going to work against his man.

 

[Get Nasty]

I'm not gonna act like an Oregon basketball expert, I have seen them play less than 10 games. But I do know that they did not press at all during the Pac12 tournament (maybe they wanted to rest since they were playing 3 games in 3 days, maybe it was becuase they were crushing teams) and they did not press when I watched them play Arizona during the regular season.

I tend to agree with you in that I believe Oregon will at least attempt to 3/4 court press us, and if desperate, press us full court. This does definitely worry me. Obviously the main worry is we don't start a true PG, and though DT has nice handles, he seems to always have 1 or 2 really really bad turnovers in the second half of games. And Grayson has also been very careless with the rock at the end of our past few games, that cant happen.
Lastly, when teams pressure us beyond half court, it seems to really affect Brandon. He just isn't there from a comfortable standpoint handling the ball against intense pressure. He is MUCH more comfortable catching the ball around the 3 point line and going to work against his man.

It's a lot on players shoulders (brandon/Grayson) to not only be the ones having to break the press, but then be the ones having to do almost all the scoring. When you have a stud PG, teams don't press you, and if they do, you make them pay.

 

[nets on nets on nets]

It's a lot on players shoulders (brandon/Grayson) to not only be the ones having to break the press, but then be the ones having to do almost all the scoring. When you have a stud PG, teams don't press you, and if they do, you make them pay.

I think Grayson is they key on Thursday for beating the press. With his speed and athleticism, he should be able to break it everytime. I think it's more of a stamina thing though, he already does SOO much for us on ofense, and is playing basically 40 minutes a game, asking him to break the press also could be too much. Although, he is definitely the most suited to do so.

 

[aah555]

I think Grayson is they key on Thursday for beating the press. With his speed and athleticism, he should be able to break it everytime. I think it's more of a stamina thing though, he already does SOO much for us on ofense, and is playing basically 40 minutes a game, asking him to break the press also could be too much. Although, he is definitely the most suited to do so.

IMO, as in a lot of previous games, Ingram is the key to breaking the press. Unlike the rest of our guys, he can see and make passes over Oregon's significant length on the wings -- which makes it very hard for him to get trapped and, to the extent they try, exposes them to 3 pt. shots in transition if Ingrams passes it over the D to spot up 3 pt. shooters in advantage situations.

While we inexplicably seemed to have some issues against the Yale press, I think that was more lack of focus & intensity that can happen when you have a big lead + are getting a little tired in a second game in 3 days with a limited squad (depthwise). Also, I'd add that part of the problem is that we weren't really attacking the press -- b/c we wanted to use clock, rather than let the press speed us up. If that was a closer game, I think that press break would have looked a lot different. Further, while I'm sure Oregon will get a couple runouts off of turnovers, their press is no defensive juggernaut. If we survived the presses of VCU, UNC-W, Louisville, and a lot of other teams trying to wear us out, I'm not particularly worried about Oregon's press -- except that it may start to wear us out over the course of 40 minute game. Considering that we'll be fresh + have 3 days to work on the press break, I think we should be fine. That press would be a lot more of a concern if this was the second game and we didn't have much time to prepare.

If we lose to Oregon, I think it will be because we can't defend them; not b/c we wilt under their defensive pressure. They have good / atheltic shotblockers at the rim. But, nothing about their resume to date suggests they're a particularly great defensive team. Kenpom. has them ranked as #43 for the year [we're 108]. For the sake of comparison, Louisville is #2, UVA is #4, UNC is #10, and Miami is #32. From the little I've seen of them, Oregon reminds me a lot of Miami -- but with a bit more explosive & athletic offense.

 

[nets on nets on nets]

IMO, as in a lot of previous games, Ingram is the key to breaking the press. Unlike the rest of our guys, he can see and make passes over Oregon's significant length on the wings -- which makes it very hard for him to get trapped and, to the extent they try, exposes them to 3 pt. shots in transition if Ingrams passes it over the D to spot up 3 pt. shooters in advantage situations.

While we inexplicably seemed to have some issues against the Yale press, I think that was more lack of focus & intensity that can happen when you have a big lead + are getting a little tired in a second game in 3 days with a limited squad (depthwise). Also, I'd add that part of the problem is that we weren't really attacking the press -- b/c we wanted to use clock, rather than let the press speed us up. If that was a closer game, I think that press break would have looked a lot different. Further, while I'm sure Oregon will get a couple runouts off of turnovers, their press is no defensive juggernaut. If we survived the presses of VCU, UNC-W, Louisville, and a lot of other teams trying to wear us out, I'm not particularly worried about Oregon's press -- except that it may start to wear us out over the course of 40 minute game. Considering that we'll be fresh + have 3 days to work on the press break, I think we should be fine. That press would be a lot more of a concern if this was the second game and we didn't have much time to prepare.

Though Brandon can see over pretty much every trap, he doesn't have the strength to be able to step through a trap and make the correct pass. And I think the world of Brandon (I think he should be the #1 pick) but his ball-handling isn't on the level of a Div. 1 Point Guard. Plus, I prefer Brandon to be one of the guys to receive the pass, so he can attack the rim and score.

I do understand what you are saying though, and I'm sure there will be a few moments in the Oregon game where we need Brandon to beat the press, but remember the game at Louisville???? I'm not saying Oregon's press is that dangerous, but still.

DT should be able to dribble through any press with his handles and quickness, but how much can he be on the floor if Oregon is falling back into a zone????? He is MUCH more effective when a team plays man.