Oregon Week. Why do we win?
- Thread starter laKavosiey-st lion
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Because Tom Allen is gone. Now we know he is a mediocre DC. I also think we have not seen any of AK’s new wrinkles with Allar, rbs, and TEs.
I hope you are right. Last year the players (and a coach that doesn't understand discipline) gave Oregon the early lead with penalties.
Have you witnessed anything during the first 3 games to suggest that this year is different?
I haven’t.
1) dumb / unnecessary offsides penalties by the DE’s
2) false starts
3) really poor tackling
Based on what’s “on tape” I’d lean towards Oregon winning this one.
But I can’t tell if PSU put who they really are “on tape” yet or it was truly just some garbage preseason approach.
But I can’t tell if PSU put who they really are “on tape” yet or it was truly just some garbage preseason approach.
I actually disagree with all 3 of those. I have noticed a definite improvement in tackling from last year, and as DeLuca gets less playing time our tackling should continue to improve. I also think we’ve been better with penalties as well. So far this year we are:
T11th fewest penalties per game
T7th fewest penalty yards per game
Both of those are much better than previous years. We’ll see if things change starting this week.
The combined record of Oregon's FBS opponents is 2-8. They also blew out FCS Montana State. The Ducks certainly have some talented players but their three OOC opponents were weak. I know Okie State looked good on paper but they've been garbage this year. If someone wants to slam Penn State for their SOS thus far, they'll need to do the same for Oregon. So why do we win?? The home crowd will tip the scales. And I think Allar will put up much bigger numbers than many expect.
PSU's OOC play makes me nervous about this game. Is there another version of the PSU offense that can consistently execute, move the chains, and has QB play improved enough to beat Oregon?
I think the 1st team defense can help win games. Still concerned about reliable LBer & DL depth.
Three key items (and a wildcard), IMO
Oregon does not play good defense against the run - didn't last year, have not this year thus far (given their level of competition).
Last year, PSU's line and RBs absolutely manhandled them. Truly, it was impressive. Can PSU do that again? What we saw PSU run game most of last year, and in the scrimmages thus far this year, would say "no", but you never know and they did it last year.
Last year, Oregon absolutely shredded PSU's D - curb stomped them. PSU was completely lost and outplayed by Oregon's offense. PSU was lucky that there were so many long drives, by both teams (leading to relatively few possessions in the game) which was the only thing that kept Oregon from hanging 1/2 a hundred or more on them.
What has changed there? Well - Tom Allen is gone, and that should/could more than make up for PSU's loss of Abdul Carter (I think it will. Allen was that bad)
Gabriel was really good. Moore looks like he can be even better - but he has not yet been tested. Will the inexperienced kid rise to the occasion, or spit the bit? You never know till you know.
The wildcard? Travelling cross country has been hell on the visitors in the Big Ten (either east to west or west to east). Oregon having to travel to PA? Should be worth at least 3-4 points, IMO Playing in Beaver Stadium in a night white-out, with an inexperienced QB - should be worth another 3-4 points, IMO. That's a lot to overcome against a quality team.
I think that gives PSU the edge.
Oregon does not play good defense against the run - didn't last year, have not this year thus far (given their level of competition).
Last year, PSU's line and RBs absolutely manhandled them. Truly, it was impressive. Can PSU do that again? What we saw PSU run game most of last year, and in the scrimmages thus far this year, would say "no", but you never know and they did it last year.
Last year, Oregon absolutely shredded PSU's D - curb stomped them. PSU was completely lost and outplayed by Oregon's offense. PSU was lucky that there were so many long drives, by both teams (leading to relatively few possessions in the game) which was the only thing that kept Oregon from hanging 1/2 a hundred or more on them.
What has changed there? Well - Tom Allen is gone, and that should/could more than make up for PSU's loss of Abdul Carter (I think it will. Allen was that bad)
Gabriel was really good. Moore looks like he can be even better - but he has not yet been tested. Will the inexperienced kid rise to the occasion, or spit the bit? You never know till you know.
The wildcard? Travelling cross country has been hell on the visitors in the Big Ten (either east to west or west to east). Oregon having to travel to PA? Should be worth at least 3-4 points, IMO Playing in Beaver Stadium in a night white-out, with an inexperienced QB - should be worth another 3-4 points, IMO. That's a lot to overcome against a quality team.
I think that gives PSU the edge.
Curbed stomped, eh? Gee, I was at that game and last I remember, we out gained them and due to an unfortunate interception, lost by 8, 45-37.
No, but lets have something more than games that are glorified scrimmages. This could be Jim Knowles' impact too. The defense looks improved... And Clemson's looks worst, hmm
PSU defense keeps them in the game and possibly scores points off turnovers because offense will sputter. However, if Oregon's run defense is weak then the running game will help PSU win because defense will give them short field to work with. Also, home field advantage with White Out. Lastly, Oregon having to make the cross country trip.
Beacause Angry James and staff showed up immediately after the last game. You know what you do when you have talent? You beat on them till they are chewing copper and spitting pennies. The time for we love you is over. Hopefully, that's the vibe the last two weeks. Some long-time coach who won plenty of big games taught me that.
I heard a lot through the first 3 games about they were holding back playbook. Not wanting to put anything on film, etc. I can recall this being said over and over. throughout the years (regardless of the coaching staff) when first few games, prior to a P4 opponent and there were clear concerns with the offense and/or defense. Can anyone actually point to an example where PSU was kinda middling/inconsistent won the opening game(s) and then really opened up the playbook like we are all expecting this week?
The only example I could come up with was 2002 with Nebraska but that was only one game (UCF) before Nebraska and a bye between UCF and Nebraska. It also was a completely different coaching staff.
My point is sure, we may see a few weird formations that create confusion or a timeout from Oregon but that what we saw in the first 3 games may be what we have until they sort out their issues (if they can) and Saturday may be messy--mistakes from both sides and struggles from the Singleton and Allar like we've seen in the first 3 games.
The only example I could come up with was 2002 with Nebraska but that was only one game (UCF) before Nebraska and a bye between UCF and Nebraska. It also was a completely different coaching staff.
My point is sure, we may see a few weird formations that create confusion or a timeout from Oregon but that what we saw in the first 3 games may be what we have until they sort out their issues (if they can) and Saturday may be messy--mistakes from both sides and struggles from the Singleton and Allar like we've seen in the first 3 games.
I tend to agree with this sentiment. Their offense did whatever they wanted against our defense. But I came away from that game thinking we were the better team if it were not for the TOs and penalties. Less disciplined team? Yep, I think we were the less disciplined team.Curbed stomped, eh? Gee, I was at that game and last I remember, we out gained them and due to an unfortunate interception, lost by 8, 45-37.
Another big factor, IMO, this game will be played on grass NOT turf.
Oregon's D can be exploited with a good rushing game.
PSU can win if they are able to run the ball consistently and break some big runs.
PSU can win if they are able to run the ball consistently and break some big runs.
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Because Franklin is 33-1 since the 2022 season as a favorite and no one is opting out of this game.
It's not Ohio State, we haven't been favored against OSU since 2009.
2024 we were 3 point dogs against the buckeyes
2023 we were 4.5 point dogs against the buckeyes
2022 were were 15.5 point dogs against the buckeyes
It was the Ole Miss bowl game with all the opt outs.
Been busy marathon training and chasing kids around.