Hit #43 to reach the milestone, >130 games quicker than previous holder - Ralph Kiner (good trivia!). Barring injury, is he the next 650+ HR guy?
OT: Aaron Judge fastest to 300 career HRs
- Thread starter gamecockcat
- Start date
He would, except he broke into the bigs a bit too old to accomplish that.
Would love to see it though. #PinstripePride #ReptheBx
Would love to see it though. #PinstripePride #ReptheBx
This is his 7th full season (not counting his Sept call-up, and the very short Covid year). And in those 7 seasons he has missed a full season of games due to injury (I count about 160-170 games missed), that is just under 15% of the games. So injuries may prevent him from reaching 650 or even 600. But thus far he's hit a HR every 3.2 games. If that dropped to every 4 games, he would need 1200 more games played to reach 600HR, and 1400 games to reach 650HR. Assuming he continues to miss about 15% of his games, then he would need 9 seasons to reach 600HR, and 11 seasons to reach 650HR, thus playing until 41 & 43 respectively.
If the droppoff is bigger as he gets older, say down to 1 HR every 5 games (which is still good), then he would need to play in 1500 games to reach 600HR, and 1750 games to reach 650HR. Assuming the same injury rate, those would take him just 11 more years and 13 more years (so until 43 & 45 respectively).
So, I would guess he will finish in the 500's.
If the droppoff is bigger as he gets older, say down to 1 HR every 5 games (which is still good), then he would need to play in 1500 games to reach 600HR, and 1750 games to reach 650HR. Assuming the same injury rate, those would take him just 11 more years and 13 more years (so until 43 & 45 respectively).
So, I would guess he will finish in the 500's.
