OT: Baseball Free Agents

[rwhitney014]

So Miley is 13-4 this season and has been a pretty decent starter for the Astros.

Auspicious or suspicious?

Haha, very, very ‘spicious.

His ERA+ is 135, far better than his career rate of 99 (100 represents an average pitcher) but well below his 2018 run in Milwaukee that had him over 160. His K rate of 7.7 is better than his usual but that far off from his career 7.2. He’s on track to nip his prior career best of 3.1 WAR, which is a solid but not spectacular number.

I think they got their money’s worth but he didn’t take a Charlie Morton star turn, so I’d lean more towards au than su.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

Oh that's right , they're broke. Guess increased ticket prices, private clubs and restaurants inside Wrigley, an outdoor beer garden and additional restaurants in new office building, along with their hotel doesn't leave them any spending money. Oh let's not forget their new TV station comes on board in a few months. Maybe they could just cut back their spending on Republican politics.

has nothing to do with how much money the team makes when talking about payroll

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Has to do with some awful free agent signings.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

Digging up an old topic to change the topic of discussion around here. Nico Hoerner with his Major League debut last night. 3 for 5 with 4 RBIs, 2 runs scored and played flawlessly at shortstop. Not bad at all.

I fell asleep, but he looked fantastic defensively, his hands and footwork were great. I only saw his first hit and haven't looked up the other two yet, but looking back I really like this bet. The two players have extremely similar profiles

Madrigal will be up 4/8 next year, give or take. We'll see what the cubs do with Hoerner but he should be at worst a good zobrist-type swing guy for the Cubs or someone else should they trade him

 

[chicagocatfan24]

Ok, I'll bite. Fishy "science"? Explain!

The paranoid conspiracy theorist in you should also keep an eye on Charlie Morton in Tampa Bay. He was a journeyman pitcher for years until he got to Houston. Then he became a very reliable starter and a World Series hero. He was unhittable against the Dodgers in the WS that year. So how will he do in Tampa?

Rereading this thread, a lot of good stuff in here.

Agent buddy of mine and I talked for like 2 straight hours on the phone like weirdos a few weeks back. He reps a journeyman reliever on the Rays now who's had a good year for them. He said the Rays are the Astros without the money, one of the very best organizations in baseball. Morton's success there this year wasn't a shock to me after this convo. Said they preach the same methods as the Astros and are 100% analytically inclined by preaching high spin fastballs up in the zone, breaking pitches down/out of the zone and only looking at peripherals when assessing pitching performance

I haven't read them yet, but as soon as baseball season winds down I'm going to check out MVP Machine and Astroball soon, apparently they're like Moneyball on steroids

 

[mission_cat]

i wouldn't put too much stock in hoerner getting some BABIP luck against cal quantrill. the jump in quality from AA to MLB is pretty ridiculous. regardless, super aggressive move by the cubs to start his service clock, especially since he's ineligible for the playoffs, if they make it.

 

[corbi2961]

i wouldn't put too much stock in hoerner getting some BABIP luck against cal quantrill. the jump in quality from AA to MLB is pretty ridiculous. regardless, super aggressive move by the cubs to start his service clock, especially since he's ineligible for the playoffs, if they make it.

They’ll appeal the playoff eligibility and have a pretty good argument in my opinion. I agree it’s aggressive but anything short of calling him up yesterday would have been viewed as raising the white flag on the season. The Cubs can’t do that. I wish he had the benefit of the fall league and a full major league spring training before making his debut but this kid is super talented and has a great makeup. I think he’ll be able to ride out some of the adversity he is sure to face in the coming weeks.

 

[willycat]

Hoerner did really well last night, but how many wives has be beaten?

"has be beaten" ? Looks like your hate is interfering with your intelligence.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

They’ll appeal the playoff eligibility and have a pretty good argumentbin my opinion. I agree it’s aggressive but anything short of calling him up yesterday would have been viewed as raising the white flag on the season. The Cubs can’t do that. I wish he had the benefit of the fall league and a full major league spring training before making his debut but this kid is super talented and has a great makeup. I think he’ll be able to ride out some of the adversity he is sure to face in the coming weeks.

I don't know that I'd call him "super talented". High floor/ low ceiling. Not a bad thing, but he won't light the world on fire like a Yordan Alvarez or even close to that. Good player, doesn't have an elite skill outside of making contact. His power numbers in AA were pretty average as a whole and below average for a 1st round pick

 

[corbi2961]

I don't know that I'd call him "super talented". High floor/ low ceiling. Not a bad thing, but he won't light the world on fire like a Yordan Alvarez or even close to that. Good player, doesn't have an elite skill outside of making contact. His power numbers in AA were pretty average as a whole and below average for a 1st round pick

In my opinion he has all star upside at second, and is capable of playing an above average shortstop and maybe center field. He is capable of being a .275-.285 hitter, with 20 HRs and 20 steals every year. If I am right, I consider that a super talented player.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I don't know that I'd call him "super talented". High floor/ low ceiling. Not a bad thing, but he won't light the world on fire like a Yordan Alvarez or even close to that. Good player, doesn't have an elite skill outside of making contact. His power numbers in AA were pretty average as a whole and below average for a 1st round pick

Cubs need someone more like my boy Nick Madrigal. Would be ideal at second with Javy at SS. A player that can lead off and doesn’t whiff like everyone else on that team. Defense up the middle would be sharp and boppers would have someone one base to drive in. Gets tiring watching Babe hitting all this homers with the bases empty.

 

[corbi2961]

Cubs need someone more like my boy Nick Madrigal. Would be ideal at second with Javy at SS. A player that can lead off and doesn’t whiff like everyone else on that team. Defense up the middle would be sharp and boppers would have someone one base to drive in. Gets tiring watching Babe hitting all this homers with the bases empty.

Hoerner has a low strike out rate at just over 10% and has 20 HR power in addition to positional flexibility. That’s a much more valuable player than a 2nd base only singles hitter.

 

[Gocatsgo2003]

Cubs need someone more like my boy Nick Madrigal. Would be ideal at second with Javy at SS. A player that can lead off and doesn’t whiff like everyone else on that team. Defense up the middle would be sharp and boppers would have someone one base to drive in. Gets tiring watching Babe hitting all this homers with the bases empty.

That’s literally what Hoerner would be next to Baez.

 

[mission_cat]

Hoerner has a low strike out rate at just over 10% and has 20 HR power in addition to positional flexibility. That’s a much more valuable player than a 2nd base only singles hitter.

i get that this is your projection, but it's worth pointing out it's pretty far outside the mainstream. fangraphs actually rates madrigal's game power slightly above hoerner's, and their ISO numbers are virtually identical at AA this year.

 

[corbi2961]

i get that this is your projection, but it's worth pointing out it's pretty far outside the mainstream. fangraphs actually rates madrigal's game power slightly above hoerner's, and their ISO numbers are virtually identical at AA this year.

When I share an opinion on a player, whether it’s in football or any other sport, it’s because I have watched him play in person and developed conviction on the player. Anybody who has watched Hoerner play who thinks he does not have significantly greater power potential than Madrigal is smoking crack. I will grant you his injuries have limited his exposure and that may be why there are still those out there who have a dated view of him as player. When you look at the body of work since he was drafted I think there is enough there to draw conclusions on the type of player/hitter he will be.i don’t think it’s an accident that he is the first player from his draft year to reach the majors and was well on his way to being ranked as a top 50 prospect. The Cubs really hit on this pick and identified a talent that was greatly undervalued.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

That’s literally what Hoerner would be next to Baez.

No, Madrigal is a much better fielder than Hoerner.

 

[corbi2961]

No, Madrigal is a much better fielder than Hoerner.

That’s funny. The kid can play a legit major league shortstop even if he is likely to end up at second because of Baez’s presence. That means he is more athletic, has better range and a better arm than any guy who is limited to second base only.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

When I share an opinion on a player, whether it’s in football or any other sport, it’s because I have watched him play in person and developed conviction on the player. Anybody who has watched Hoerner play who thinks he does not have significantly greater power potential than Madrigal is smoking crack. I will grant you his injuries have limited his exposure and that may be why there are still those out there who have a dated view of him as player. When you look at the body of work since he was drafted I think there is enough there to draw conclusions on the type of player/hitter he will be.i don’t think it’s an accident that he is the first player from his draft year to reach the majors and was well on his way to being ranked as a top 50 prospect. The Cubs really hit on this pick and identified a talent that was greatly undervalued.

I haven’t seen either Hoerner or Madrigal live so I am at a disadvantage to you. However, my TV view and reading scouting reports, tracking minor league performance lead me to believe than Madrigal will be a better fielder, strike out less, hit for a higher average and steal more bases than Hoerner. A prototype top of the order player for many years. This is not to say Hoerner won’t be a fine player. Hoerner will certainly hit for more power, but I don’t see Nomar Garciaparra prowess. I guess it is a choice on what type of player you like better or fits your team better.

I know I am in the minority here, but I am still taking Madrigal if given a choice.

 

[corbi2961]

I haven’t seen either Hoerner or Madrigal live so I am at a disadvantage to you. However, my TV view and reading scouting reports, tracking minor league performance lead me to believe than Madrigal will be a better fielder, strike out less, hit for a higher average and steal more bases than Hoerner. A prototype top of the order player for many years. This is not to say Hoerner won’t be a fine player. Hoerner will certainly hit for more power, but I don’t see Nomar Garciaparra prowess. I guess it is a choice on what type of player you like better or fits your team better.

I know I am in the minority here, but I am still taking Madrigal if given a choice.

I hated the Madrigal pick when it was made so I guess I am biased but I think if you gave Rick Hahn a dose of truth serum and asked him if he would trade Madrigal for Hoerner straight up right now he’d say hell yes. The only significant question mark on Hoerner right now is his ability to stay healthy.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

That’s funny. The kid can play a legit major league shortstop even if he is likely to end up at second because of Baez’s presence. That means he is more athletic, has better range and a better arm than any guy who is limited to second base only.

Terrific, I’ll remind you that Madrigal can play shortstop too. He moved because the major league team happens to have a young stud playing shortstop may win the American League in Batting Average. As you point out, the same reason Hoerner will end up at second. He is blocked by a stud. We are talking a golden glove type second baseman. It’s pretty obvious Madrigal is a slick fielder. I would like to see one scouting report that projects Hoerner as a better defender than Madrigal. Doubt it exists.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I hated the Madrigal pick when it was made so I guess I am biased but I think if you gave Rick Hahn a dose of truth serum and asked him if he would trade Madrigal for Hoerner straight up right now he’d say hell yes. The only significant question mark on Hoerner right now is his ability to stay healthy.

Why? Madrigal seems to be exactly who Hahn thought he was getting. A top fielder that can steal bases, rarely strikes out and can set the table for Jimenez, Robert and Moncada. It’s not like Hoerner has Schwarber like power. I hear you that he has more power potential than Madrigal, but he hasn’t showed it thus far in his minor league career.

 

[corbi2961]

Terrific, I’ll remind you that Madrigal can play shortstop too. He moved because the major league team happens to have a young stud playing shortstop may win the American League in Batting Average. As you point out, the same reason Hoerner will end up at second. He is blocked by a stud. We are talking a golden glove type second baseman. It’s pretty obvious Madrigal is a slick fielder. I would like to see one scouting report that projects Hoerner as a better defender than Madrigal. Doubt it exists.

There is no way Madrigal can be an everyday shortstop at the major league level. He played it in college but pro baseball is a whole different story. If he was capable of playing shortstop, any GM with a brain would have him playing shortstop in the minors to enhance his value. That’s what the Cubs have done with Hoerner in addition to having him play some second base and centerfield. A shortstop can always move to second and become adept at it pretty quickly but the reverse is rarely true.

 

[NU Houston]

Haha, very, very ‘spicious.

His ERA+ is 135, far better than his career rate of 99 (100 represents an average pitcher) but well below his 2018 run in Milwaukee that had him over 160. His K rate of 7.7 is better than his usual but that far off from his career 7.2. He’s on track to nip his prior career best of 3.1 WAR, which is a solid but not spectacular number.

I think they got their money’s worth but he didn’t take a Charlie Morton star turn, so I’d lean more towards au than su.

No longer auspicious. Miley made it through a third of an inning tonight, after not registering a single out in his last outing. That's a serious problem heading into the playoffs.

 

[Gocatsgo2003]

No, Madrigal is a much better fielder than Hoerner.

Both would be extremely high level second basemen.

 

[corbi2961]

Both would be extremely high level second basemen.

That’s right. I have no doubt that Madrigal is a slick fielding second baseman but I also have no doubt that Hoerner will be a slick fielding second baseman if that’s the position where the Cubs ultimately put him. The difference is Hoerner is also capable of being at least an average major league shortstop and possibly also a centerfielder. The ability to play those two premium positions make him a rarer commodity and more valuable player everything else being equal.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

No longer auspicious. Miley made it through a third of an inning tonight, after not registering a single out in his last outing. That's a serious problem heading into the playoffs.

Astros may not need a 4th starter in the playoffs. Verlander, Cole and Greinke are a really strong top 3.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

That’s funny. The kid can play a legit major league shortstop even if he is likely to end up at second because of Baez’s presence. That means he is more athletic, has better range and a better arm than any guy who is limited to second base only.

Athleticism/ hands aren't Madrigal's issue whatsoever. It's his fringe-y arm. He has gold glove caliber hands. He's only made 3 errors in his pro career so far. David Eckstein saw Nick Madrigal trying out for team USA as a 16 year old and said [paraphrased] "this guy could play an MLB 2B as we speak"

 

[mission_cat]

When I share an opinion on a player, whether it’s in football or any other sport, it’s because I have watched him play in person and developed conviction on the player. Anybody who has watched Hoerner play who thinks he does not have significantly greater power potential than Madrigal is smoking crack. I will grant you his injuries have limited his exposure and that may be why there are still those out there who have a dated view of him as player. When you look at the body of work since he was drafted I think there is enough there to draw conclusions on the type of player/hitter he will be.i don’t think it’s an accident that he is the first player from his draft year to reach the majors and was well on his way to being ranked as a top 50 prospect. The Cubs really hit on this pick and identified a talent that was greatly undervalued.

Not much of this makes sense. I mean it was quite literally an accident (several, actually) that put Hoerner in a position to make it to the MLB this season. Madrigal, as I'm sure you know, is already a level above Hoerner and, accidents notwithstanding, looks far more MLB-ready. Once again, Hoerner's power stats are virtually identical to Madrigal's, and there is an obvious difference between raw/game power. Finally, I think in a general sense you are undervaluing a solid-hitting 2B with elite defense. Kolten Wong is a great example of how valuable this type of player can be.

 

[Hungry Jack]

W(ow). Yelich fouls a pitch off his kneecap and now his season is over.

 

[Fitz51]

"has be beaten" ? Looks like your hate is interfering with your intelligence.

I do hate wife beating.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I do hate wife beating.

What about wife carrying races?

 

[willycat]

I do hate wife beating.

Agree and you should encourage no one to do it.

 

[willycat]

There is no way Madrigal can be an everyday shortstop at the major league level. He played it in college but pro baseball is a whole different story. If he was capable of playing shortstop, any GM with a brain would have him playing shortstop in the minors to enhance his value. That’s what the Cubs have done with Hoerner in addition to having him play some second base and centerfield. A shortstop can always move to second and become adept at it pretty quickly but the reverse is rarely true.

Think Hoerner might end up in CF, rather then the IF. Guess it depends if the Cubs come up with a leadoff type guy at 2b or CF in free agency or a trade.

 

[corbi2961]

Not much of this makes sense. I mean it was quite literally an accident (several, actually) that put Hoerner in a position to make it to the MLB this season. Madrigal, as I'm sure you know, is already a level above Hoerner and, accidents notwithstanding, looks far more MLB-ready. Once again, Hoerner's power stats are virtually identical to Madrigal's, and there is an obvious difference between raw/game power. Finally, I think in a general sense you are undervaluing a solid-hitting 2B with elite defense. Kolten Wong is a great example of how valuable this type of player can be.

An accident? What reports have you been reading. The Cubs writer at the Athletic recently speculated (correctly in my opinion) that Hoerner had a legit shot to open this season with the Cubs had his development not been stunted by an injury in the minors late last year. Had he not gotten injured again earlier this season, I think it’s very likely he would have been called up earlier this summer. The guy is now widely thought of as a top 50 prospect in baseball. His call up is no accident.

 

[corbi2961]

Think Hoerner might end up in CF, rather then the IF. Guess it depends if the Cubs come up with a leadoff type guy at 2b or CF in free agency or a trade.

It’s possible. He is athletic enough to play CF and I think he has the patience, low strikeout/high contact rate and has the speed to be a good leadoff hitter.

 

[corbi2961]

Why? Madrigal seems to be exactly who Hahn thought he was getting. A top fielder that can steal bases, rarely strikes out and can set the table for Jimenez, Robert and Moncada. It’s not like Hoerner has Schwarber like power. I hear you that he has more power potential than Madrigal, but he hasn’t showed it thus far in his minor league career.

Why? Because Hoerner is the better player. Madrigal May end up being exactly what Hahn thought he was getting but he was a bad value as the #4 pick in the draft. When you are drafting that high, you have to take the best player available with a high ceiling. Drafting for a specific need at at that spot in the draft is a recipe for getting fired.

 

[Hungry Jack]

No longer auspicious. Miley made it through a third of an inning tonight, after not registering a single out in his last outing. That's a serious problem heading into the playoffs.

There is nothing in Miley’s peripherals that suggests anything beyond him having a bit of luck and playing for a very good team. He’s a low K rate (7.2 /9), ground ball guy (>50%) whose mistakes get punished (15% HR /FB). He has forsaken his 90 MPH FB for a cutter, but appears to live off his changeup. His BABIP is a tad low (.280) and his strand rate a tad high (75.9%), so a bit of luck on a good team has him with a winning record. But his FIP says “Average Joe.”

 

[hoosboot]

Astros may not need a 4th starter in the playoffs. Verlander, Cole and Greinke are a really strong top 3.

And if they do, Aaron Sanchez might be a better option than Miley anyway.

 

[mission_cat]

An accident? What reports have you been reading. The Cubs writer at the Athletic recently speculated (correctly in my opinion) that Hoerner had a legit shot to open this season with the Cubs had his development not been stunted by an injury in the minors late last year. Had he not gotten injured again earlier this season, I think it’s very likely he would have been called up earlier this summer. The guy is now widely thought of as a top 50 prospect in baseball. His call up is no accident.

This is kind of a pointless discussion, given that injuries are part of the game and that the aggressiveness of assignments is not just a function of player skill. I also think it's fair to say that the industry consensus is that Madrigal is a better prospect than Hoerner. For one, there isn't a ton to go off of that would suggest a massive jump in Hoerner's HR rate, at least not more than Madrigal. I think the other thing is that Hoerner's defense is a stretch for shortstop, and he likely won't hit well enough to overcome that lack of quality. The exciting thing is that we'll get a good look at Hoerner for the next few weeks and we can answer a lot of these questions.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

This is kind of a pointless discussion, given that injuries are part of the game and that the aggressiveness of assignments is not just a function of player skill. I also think it's fair to say that the industry consensus is that Madrigal is a better prospect than Hoerner. For one, there isn't a ton to go off of that would suggest a massive jump in Hoerner's HR rate, at least not more than Madrigal. I think the other thing is that Hoerner's defense is a stretch for shortstop, and he likely won't hit well enough to overcome that lack of quality. The exciting thing is that we'll get a good look at Hoerner for the next few weeks and we can answer a lot of these questions.

Hoerner had 3 (three!) career home runs at Stanford. Has 29 career XBHs in ~475 plate appearances in the minors. That's not good, doesn't matter if he's a backend 1st round pick or not. You're talking about him like he's some future star. He's a fine player, sure, but on a good team like the Cubs he's a role player. Again, that's not a bad thing and he could definitely adjust his swing to at worst hit more gaps, but that takes an entire offseason of work to adjust muscle memory, not a September call up when he's more or less being fed to the wolves.

And his call up is by accident. He wouldn't have been called up without the injury to Javy. He may not be eligible for post season play and they needed a body. He will hold his own because he's got good hands and can hit singles, but that's exactly what he is at this exact moment of his development. Nick Madrigal would have been the exact same thing for the Cubs, but would have stolen a lot more bases.