OT: Electric vehicles

[WhichReligionIsRight]

From last year. I imagine there have been changes since then.

BTW, what could be more American than weening our nation's economy off gas and oil? Aside from the obvious benefits to fighting global climate change, we can be more strategically secure not having to worry funding so many awful nations - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, etc - with petrodollars.

https://insideevs.com/news/534890/countries-states-gas-car-bans/

 

[RUevolution36]

The government can and does restrict the sale of all kinds of stuff, often with good cause. And not sure I understand the freedom of movement argument; people are still free to move about.

However, I agree the date is a little arbitrary and aggressive. And I very much agree that infrastructure should be allowed to grow more first. Perhaps CA should offer more incentives for companies to expand public infrastructure and for apartment complexes to install charging stations, etc.

I think it likely that a lack of infrastructure and energy supply issues may well force CA to push their target date out.

Incentives only go so far. After a while, if you really want to get something done, have to stop using the carrot and start using the stick. Give private entities like those apartment complexes and shopping centers incentives to update their infra in the next 5 years. After that, maybe a phased in carbon tax to force them into compliance.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Thursday's launch will require that 35 percent of new passenger vehicles sold in the state by 2026 produce zero emissions, then 68 percent by 2030 and ultimately 100 percent five years after.

At present, about 15% of cars sold in California are zero emission (nearly all EVs). Axios has a good summary of the new regulations going into effect Thursday.

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/24/california-gas-vehicle-ban-electric-vehicles-evs

 

[RUevolution36]

Thursday's launch will require that 35 percent of new passenger vehicles sold in the state by 2026 produce zero emissions, then 68 percent by 2030 and ultimately 100 percent five years after.

At present, about 15% of cars sold in California are zero emission (nearly all EVs). Axios has a good summary of the new regulations going into effect Thursday.

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/24/california-gas-vehicle-ban-electric-vehicles-evs

Going to be a steep ramp up that I'm not sure can be achieved... both from a mfg side and from an infra side. CA has enough problems managing their grid already. Like... step one should be to make sure the grid stops setting things on fire.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Lets think of the Founding Fathers. What would they say about this nonsense?

The slave states forced acceptance of slavery while many were for banning it. Yeah.. a very differnt thing.. but you can see there weer conflicts.

But what would have been an equvalent? Banning the use of horses because of the farts and excrement? We all ahve feet, right? Well.. not the Revolutionary War veteranse with blown off legs.

They never would have supported anything so reckless and so against the freedom this country was founded in order to protect.

And the only thing the pro-FF-ban people would be able to say is, well, we are destroying the planet! Which is stiff unproven and nowhere near an immediate threat even if real. ANd we cna always move inland to live on the new coast.

Jersey Shore PA might actually be on the shore one day.. whether or not humans existed and added to some climate crisis. The sun fluctuates output, the earths rotation wobbles... *stuff* happens in climate tens of thousands of years ago and since. Through all recorded hsitory and what ice core samples showed happened in re-history.

This is nonsense. We need a good economy in order to afford the remedies we will one day need. This green deal is just idiocy.

Speaking of horses, many city denizens were more than happy to see automobiles and trucks replaced horses. The big change that occurred 100 years ago is happening again. We won't be around for it, but there will certainly be new forms of travel in the future - fully automated vehicles without steering wheels and the end of private vehicle ownership.

An urban workhorse dumped between 20 and 50 pounds of manure a day on the street along with a gallon of piss.

“Add 500 horses per square mile and then do the math,” says Greene. “Some cities had good systems to truck out the manure while others dumped it in rivers.”

Tonnes of manure pounded and pulverized into dust attracted rodents and flies. By one wild government estimate, 95 per cent of all disease-carrying flies bred in horse dung. Dead horses often clogged city streets and teamsters on tight schedules added menace to public thoroughfares.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2013/03/06/Horse-Dung-Big-Shift/

The point is that change is constant in modern society. There will be bumps, but we'll adapt just fine to the Green Revolution - and be better off and healthier for it.

 

[fsg2_rivals]

Freedom of movement...freedom for a business to sell products

Setting an arbitrary date based on no real data to ban gas powered vehicles

How about we let the infrastructure grow organically before we get to the point we ban things. Why would anyone set dates to ban a product we have been using gor more than a century

If the technology develops where its beyond obvious great but i suspect thats not where we will be

Agree completely with your third paragraph. I'm more bullish on the tech, but also agree with the gist of your last paragraph.

With Mildone on the first two, but overall we're in agreement that bans like that are unproductive.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Going to be a steep ramp up that I'm not sure can be achieved... both from a mfg side and from an infra side. CA has enough problems managing their grid already. Like... step one should be to make sure the grid stops setting things on fire.

I agree the news rules are really ambitious. I'm not even sure they are reasonably achievable in the short-term, but I support the ambition as well as the intention. The quicker we shift, the quicker the Western World no longer has to rely on Russia and Saudi Arabia for fuel.

 

[Jtung230]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-scolds-tesla-driver-153215907.html

I don’t get this. If it’s not ready, why sell it?

 

[mildone_rivals]

Incentives only go so far. After a while, if you really want to get something done, have to stop using the carrot and start using the stick. Give private entities like those apartment complexes and shopping centers incentives to update their infra in the next 5 years. After that, maybe a phased in carbon tax to force them into compliance.

I'd be okay with both offering financial incentives while also putting a strict time-limit on putting in chargers. No need to wait 5 years.

My point is that I think that's a bit more democratic than simply banning the sale of all ICE vehicles. Especially with all the research taking place into carbon-neutral fuels. Some pretty huge money focused on that right now. Won't replace EVs, but might make it easier and cleaner between now and whenever infrastructure and power grid and cleaner energy production is all in place.

 

[mildone_rivals]

Speaking of horses, many city denizens were more than happy to see automobiles and trucks replaced horses. The big change that occurred 100 years ago is happening again. We won't be around for it, but there will certainly be new forms of travel in the future - fully automated vehicles without steering wheels and the end of private vehicle ownership.

An urban workhorse dumped between 20 and 50 pounds of manure a day on the street along with a gallon of piss.

“Add 500 horses per square mile and then do the math,” says Greene. “Some cities had good systems to truck out the manure while others dumped it in rivers.”

Tonnes of manure pounded and pulverized into dust attracted rodents and flies. By one wild government estimate, 95 per cent of all disease-carrying flies bred in horse dung. Dead horses often clogged city streets and teamsters on tight schedules added menace to public thoroughfares.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2013/03/06/Horse-Dung-Big-Shift/

The point is that change is constant in modern society. There will be bumps, but we'll adapt just fine to the Green Revolution - and be better off and healthier for it.

Nothing modern about a society that would prohibit private automobile ownership. I would hope that never happens. Would be a sign of dystopian future for sure.

 

[mildone_rivals]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-scolds-tesla-driver-153215907.html

I don’t get this. If it’s not ready, why sell it?

It's tech for tech's sake. And it's become a selling point for cars, so manufacturers like having it.

This is something that needs to be banned. Build some testing facilities our west, do all the testing off road. And people need to open their eyes and admit that the role of the human in level 2 is utterly moronic and will never work.

As we see more and more cars using these half-assed systems on the road, the number of deaths will climb. And then, after all these companies spend all this money trying to rush a bad partial solution into production, we'll finally figure out we have to ban it until V2V and V2i.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles.

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

Propaganda! Musk is a charlatan!

This technology saves lives. I just hope the regulators have more sense than the cement heads in this thread, who never bother to research the data or investigate this rapidly evolving technology.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-scolds-tesla-driver-153215907.html

I don’t get this. If it’s not ready, why sell it?

Don't buy it then.
People buy it because they want it and/or they realize the value of a fully autonomous vehicle.

 

[RUevolution36]

Don't buy it then.
People buy it because they want it and/or they realize the value of a fully autonomous vehicle.

but it's not fully autonomous. that's the point. the fact that even you just referred to it as fully autonomous is exactly when the rest of us are saying. it's misleading and dangerous for ppl to think that it is fully autonomous.

 

[Jtung230]

Don't buy it then.
People buy it because they want it and/or they realize the value of a fully autonomous vehicle.

I‘m not buying it. I also don’t want to drive next to it. i guess this buyer thought it should’ve been more ready then it is.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

I‘m not buying it. I also don’t want to drive next to it. i guess this buyer thought it should’ve been more ready then it is.

Do you want to drive next to a car full of teenagers or grandma with compromised reflexes? I suggest stay off the roads because you continue to be oblivious to the fact that humans are ****** drivers and too many people die every day because of simple, preventable human errors.

As far as the Twitter exchange, Musk and this guy have a brief history. Long story short, he's a bit of a PIA. Elon was quick to snap too. Not much of a story, but it generates clicks. Mission accomplished. Forgotten by tomorrow.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

but it's not fully autonomous. that's the point. the fact that even you just referred to it as fully autonomous is exactly when the rest of us are saying. it's misleading and dangerous for ppl to think that it is fully autonomous.

Good grief.
Find a single article from a Tesla owner that purchased FSD without knowing it wasn't feature complete. Or, knowingly used it in a way thinking it was feature complete. There must be countless lawsuits. Please, just one, and I'll join your noble crusade. Your arguing about a product name. Give it up.

 

[fsg2_rivals]

Good grief.
Find a single article from a Tesla owner that purchased FSD without knowing it wasn't feature complete. Or, knowingly used it in a way thinking it was feature complete. Please, just one, and I'll join your noble crusade. Your arguing about a product name. Give it up.

In the future, you should just use the levels to describe what you're speaking of instead of inaccurate catchalls like "fully autonomous."

In this case, I believe "Level 2 autonomy," not Level 5 (i.e. fully autonomous) is what you were after.

 

[RUevolution36]

Good grief.
Find a single article from a Tesla owner that purchased FSD without knowing it wasn't feature complete. Or, knowingly used it in a way thinking it was feature complete. There must be countless lawsuits. Please, just one, and I'll join your noble crusade. Your arguing about a product name. Give it up.

it's you're, not your.

 

[mildone_rivals]

Don't buy it then.
People buy it because they want it and/or they realize the value of a fully autonomous vehicle.

C'mon. So now it's bad to hold people accountable for delivering what their customers paid for?

You seriously don't think that someone who has paid out $32K for a feature and then finds that "feature" struggling with even basic driving tasks might have a valid complaint?

 

[mildone_rivals]

Propaganda! Musk is a charlatan!

This technology saves lives. I just hope the regulators have more sense than the cement heads in this thread, who never bother to research the data or investigate this rapidly evolving technology.

I'm not sure who here thinks Musk is a Charlatan, but I do not. I have no issue with Musk, personally. He's a businessman who does a lot of promoting of his products and ventures. Which is perfectly okay.

What is NOT okay is claiming that the technology is saving lives. That is, as yet, unproven in any statistical sense. The technology is not nearly in widespread enough use to make the claim that it's saving lives. I mean, unless you're using an extremely loose standard for the statement. And if using loose standards, then one could just as validly claim that human drivers are saving lives every day too.

In the past three weeks, I've saved two human lives by being alert to idiots talking on their cell phones while they strolled out across a busy road in the middle of the street, between parked vehicles. I see this sort of thing happening ALL THE TIME. Human drivers 1.0 saving lives. Not even in beta.

 

[mildone_rivals]

I‘m not buying it. I also don’t want to drive next to it. i guess this buyer thought it should’ve been more ready then it is.

It's the being forced to drive next to Beta tech that's driving cars on public roads that's so insane. Get it right first. Then put it out on the road.

All the various events that occur on public roadways can be simulated with a high degree of accuracy off public roads. Easily.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

The level of faux outrage about Tesla's FSD has reached peak absurdity. The fury over an over-hyped name, like the world's best coffee or England's Championship League ... the indignities of having to drive on roads with Tesla FSD's engaged. Shocking, Horror. Pass the smelling salts. Thank goodness our Hero Mildone saved lives this week! Only 35,000 to go before the year is over. What a workload.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

All the various events that occur on public roadways can be simulated with a high degree of accuracy off public roads. Easily.

Wow. I knew you were clueless, but this is the most embarrassingly stupid statement ever uttered regarding autonomy.

 

[RutgersNo1]

https://insideevs.com/news/606506/ford-reopens-us-order-banks-2023-mustang-mach-e-raises-prices/

Nearly 70K for a long-range AWD Mach-E...Guess it's time to cancel my pre-order...

 

[mildone_rivals]

The level of faux outrage about Tesla's FSD has reached peak absurdity. The fury over an over-hyped name, like the world's best coffee or England's Championship League ... the indignities of having to drive on roads with Tesla FSD's engaged. Shocking, Horror. Pass the smelling salts. Thank goodness our Hero Mildone saved lives this week! Only 35,000 to go before the year is over. What a workload.

First of all, it's not about Tesla AT ALL. It's about all similar automated driving systems regardless of who the manufacturer is.

Second, it's not absurd in the slightest. The only absurdity is that everybody isn't objecting vehemently to this flawed concept that can never work correctly due to the human factor built in to it.

If you can't understand the inherent flaw in systems that rely on human attention while at the same time doing everything they can to make the human inattentive, then I don't know what to tell you. It's flat out obvious how flawed it is conceptually.

 

[mildone_rivals]

Wow. I knew you were clueless, but this is the most embarrassingly stupid statement ever uttered regarding autonomy.

LOL

It's an unbelievably obvious thing to anybody with half a brain and you're missing it by a mile. Which, by definition, makes you less than a half-wit.

Wanna trade insults, that's good with me - I'm way, waaaay better than you at it. My guess is you'll quickly realize you are way too sensitive and insecure and will have me back on ignore in no time. You want to dish it out but you can't take it. So very, very lame.

Your turn. Make it good.

 

[Caliknight]

at best you may see 50/50 gas/EV by the year 2040 is my estimate, which is based on Zero research or knowledge. There will always be a need for gas powered vehicles until the battery technology improves as well as the charging infrastructure

Zero chance I am allowing my movements to be controlled by some soy boy sitting in front of a computer.

More gas baby. Drill baby drill. I'll ALWAYS have at least one fossil fuel powered car.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

LOL

It's an unbelievably obvious thing to anybody with half a brain and you're missing it by a mile. Which, by definition, makes you less than a half-wit.

Wanna trade insults, that's good with me - I'm way, waaaay better than you at it. My guess is you'll quickly realize you are way too sensitive and insecure and will have me back on ignore in no time. You want to dish it out but you can't take it. So very, very lame.

Your turn. Make it good.

You're right. It's a waste of my time attempting to have an honest debate on this topic with an ignorant, close minded, narcissist.

You just embarrassed yourself with your approach to solving autonomy. Every engineer on the planet working on this project would laugh in your face. And guess what professor, Tesla already uses a simulator and closed road courses to train their neural networks, but it's only a small part of the big picture. I imagine other OEMs do this also. Training AI to drive on real roads requires billions of miles driven on......you guessed it....real roads! To think navigating the endless complexity of the real world can be duplicated on a test course "easily" is hilarious....I'm still laughing at that one.

And in all your self righteous pontificating, you're yet to present a single piece of data suggesting ADAS is less safe than the average human driver. You just know better. You have the correct approach and all of the brilliant engineers working on this daunting task are wrong. Maybe slither away from the message boards for a few minutes and send some job applications out.

 

[RUevolution36]

You're right. It's a waste of my time attempting to have an honest debate on this topic with an ignorant, close minded, narcissist.

You just embarrassed yourself with your approach to solving autonomy. Every engineer on the planet working on this project would laugh in your face. And guess what professor, Tesla already uses a simulator and closed road courses to train their neural networks, but it's only a small part of the big picture. I imagine other OEMs do this also. Training AI to drive on real roads requires billions of miles driven on......you guessed it....real roads! To think navigating the endless complexity of the real world can be duplicated on a test course "easily" is hilarious....I'm still laughing at that one.

And in all your self righteous pontificating, you're yet to present a single piece of data suggesting ADAS is less safe than the average human driver. You just know better. You have the correct approach and all of the brilliant engineers working on this daunting task are wrong. Maybe slither away from the message boards for a few minutes and send some job applications out.

why is tesla's software being sold when it is clearly being called a Beta? you don't sell beta software. it means you know there are bugs in it. do you understand software development?

 

[mildone_rivals]

You're right. It's a waste of my time attempting to have an honest debate on this topic with an ignorant, close minded, narcissist.

You just embarrassed yourself with your approach to solving autonomy. Every engineer on the planet working on this project would laugh in your face. And guess what professor, Tesla already uses a simulator and closed road courses to train their neural networks, but it's only a small part of the big picture. I imagine other OEMs do this also. Training AI to drive on real roads requires billions of miles driven on......you guessed it....real roads! To think navigating the endless complexity of the real world can be duplicated on a test course "easily" is hilarious....I'm still laughing at that one.

And in all your self righteous pontificating, you're yet to present a single piece of data suggesting ADAS is less safe than the average human driver. You just know better. You have the correct approach and all of the brilliant engineers working on this daunting task are wrong. Maybe slither away from the message boards for a few minutes and send some job applications out.

What’s funny about your rant is how much it reveals your ignorance about AI and “neural networks”. Not to mention the irony of you pontificating like mad while accusing me of doing so.

It’s entirely possible to “train the AI” without using public roads. It‘s just cheaper for companies to not have to build out good enough non-public facilities and use public roads. I mean, this is basic logic, you don’t even need to be smart to realize the truth of it.

I particularly like your silliness about “brilliant engineers”. Because brilliant engineers never work on something that winds up never working right. Never happens, right?

You should take a Xanax and reread your post a few times. It’s extremely lame. As is your inability to tolerate differences of opinion by simply disagreeing. A sure sign of insecurity.

 

[LBusDoor90_rivals]

This is getting ridiculous. You guys all need to bring it down several notches.

 

[RUevolution36]

This is getting ridiculous. You guys all need to bring it down several notches.

you want some too? don't step into something you aren't ready to finish.





(kidding)

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

This is getting ridiculous. You guys all need to bring it down several notches.

Not to worry. I'm done with him.

 

[koleszar]

Aside from the obvious benefits to fighting global climate change, we can be more strategically secure not having to worry funding so many awful nations - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, etc - with petrodollars.

You do know who owns the mining rights to most of the minerals and where these mines are located that are used in making batteries, right? No batteries, no go. You're basically trading one set of awful nations for another.

The California law is basically pie in the sky dreaming. There's no infrastructure to charge these vehicles and California has rolling blackouts for a reason. They can't produce enough power already. I'm all for clean energy but the technology simply isn't there yet. 12yrs. is too fast and it's just Newsome doing it to say, I'm first look how progressive I am.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

why is tesla's software being sold when it is clearly being called a Beta? you don't sell beta software. it means you know there are bugs in it. do you understand software development?

There are bugs in all software, beta or not. Software development is fluid.
No one is being forced to purchase.
I know you love overregulation, but I am unaware of any regulations pertaining to selling a beta product.

 

[RUevolution36]

There are bugs in all software, beta or not. Software development is fluid.
No one is being forced to purchase.
I know you love overregulation, but I am unaware of any regulations pertaining to selling a beta product.

dude, wtf are you talking about loving overregulation? you just pull the most random **** out of your *** and throw against the board to see if it sticks, don't you? you're just bent out of shape because you can't fathom others not wanting to deep throat elon like you do.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

You do know who owns the mining rights to most of the minerals and where these mines are located that are used in making batteries, right? No batteries, no go. You're basically trading one set of awful nations for another.

China owns the lions share of the battery metals refining processes, not the mines themselves. Australian lithium, for example, is mostly refined in China.

In the short term, yes, we are dependant on others, but we're already starting to see domestic mining, refining processes, battery production and recycling efforts gain traction. The great thing about EVs is that the metals within the pack are recyclable to >95%. Eventually, battery manufacturing and recycling will become a closed loop system. Our dependence on foreign bad apples goes away too as more and more of the battery metals are sourced from recycling rather than mining. It won't be tomorrow, but there is a finish line. The same cannot be said for fossil fuels. Energy security=national security. Long term, this is the way to go.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

You do know who owns the mining rights to most of the minerals and where these mines are located that are used in making batteries, right? No batteries, no go. You're basically trading one set of awful nations for another.

The California law is basically pie in the sky dreaming. There's no infrastructure to charge these vehicles and California has rolling blackouts for a reason. They can't produce enough power already. I'm all for clean energy but the technology simply isn't there yet. 12yrs. is too fast and it's just Newsome doing it to say, I'm first look how progressive I am.

California does not have rolling blackouts. That is a lie. Texas is the state with rolling blackouts.

I'm sure you follow the news. The recent law signed by Biden will provide incentives for sourcing EV battery materials within the US or from friendly nations. This will take time but is the right thing to do.

We shall see soon enough the California mandate is occurring too soon. Or not. I guess I'm more optimistic about our future than you. You see doom, I see opportunity.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

This is getting ridiculous. You guys all need to bring it down several notches.

OK. You are right.