OT: Kopp
- Thread starter techtim72
- Start date
Simply "presenting data" and "the argument has to be logical" ... what a joke.
You couldn't even finish your post without contradicting yourself. I appreciate the point that "any" stats that say Greer played poorly against Maryland are deeply flawed. You don't know the stats and you don't know the source, but somehow they're wrong. Just another logical, data-based interpretation I guess.
My favorite today is that "+/- numbers are by far the best predictor of success or failure in any sport." So now the sermon extends beyond basketball.
You're obviously not much of a baseball fan which only masquerades as a team sport. But go ahead and keep pretending you know what you're talking about.
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a) "Yes, it's imprefect" ... And generally that's all that would need to be said. Instead, there is completely an attitude that all other stats are BS. It was said today without even knowing what the stats were.
b) The Young and Beran arguments are so obvious they don't need the repetitive statistical analysis. It's just mathematical jerking off because very few people have ever argued with it.
Wrong as usual. You like YOUR facts (and whatever vague form in which they were calculated). You don't like facts from other sources.
I am confused as to the point. Are you saying that:
1) Young should play more and Beran less?
2) No, but can’t come up with any stats to support that opinion?
If it‘s more stats than +/- that are needed I suggest you looking up what I wrote as fun stats about Ryan Young.
if it’s not we’re back to the old man mentality that the human eye is so good that no analytics are needed. Problem is that it’s pretty apparent different human eyes around here see the issue differently.
This aversion to the +/- only has the following explanations around here:
1) Folks who are tired of seeing it as they are posted a lot.
2) They contradict their beliefs and how hard it is to deal with that
3) All of the above
The ones who do not have aversion to them, and there have been quite a few around here stating just that, find them interesting, regardless of agreeing with them or not. I’d say that’s a reasonable attitude.
I don’t mind seeing them. It’s the same tiring arguments and some of the ludicrous takes. We disagree on eye for defense but I mean I see where young could play more but I’m not the coach.
I also can’t stand how plus or minus has it’s own cult of “this is the absolute truth”. I mean it’s not even close to the best stat in any sport as was stated earlier in this thread. In soccer it’s useless. In basketball it’s extremely limited and does not measure “intangibles”. It doesn’t break down into any variables besides who’s out there. It doesn’t tell you anything about the players game. It doesn’t tell you anything situationally.
Idc if I agree or disagree with the opinions made with the stat argument. Team sports are subjective. I also don’t mind seeing the stats. I’m an NU fan and an accounting/finance major. We tend to like numbers. It’s just I’m aware neither eye test or numbers are gospel. I don’t need numbers to tell me what I’m seeing or who’s playing well. They’re nice to back an opinion up but they aren’t everything.
I’m honestly just tired of reading about lineups and Young. Every single thread and conversation devolves into it. I need to stop responding to these, do my part and let them die. Read the thread title see what is being talked about.
So, you want more of fans bloviating about what they see and less analysis of data? That sounds awful.
You state conclusions that you don't back up with anything, which is an awful message board phenomenon. Rock that opinion, but offer something that supports why that opinion is something someone should pay attention to. Why is +/- extremely limited in basketball in your opinion? What valuable intangibles do you think it doesn't capture and why doesn't it capture it? I love intangibles, but IMHO positive intangibles end up being born out by success on the court. Otherwise, "intangibles" just kind of seem like fan excuses for why stats don't support their contentions.
Well said…I will do my best to longer respond. Hopefully a nice string of victories will change the discourse a bit.
a) I'm not even bothering with the Young-Beran discussion. It's too obvious. But if you want to pretend a large contingent of people out here have disagreed with the Young theory from the start, have at it.
b) Let's also not invent a discussion that "no analytics are needed." I never came close to saying that, and nobody else has either. However, there are far more established, well-thought out and more accurately-prepared stats all over the Internet. Good posters use them. Dumb fans ignore them, but that's part of our little group also.
c) You might want to talk to PWB about having trouble with stats that contradict beliefs. Every time I've thrown them out there, suddenly those stats are not acceptable.
d) Stats vs the human eye is all-or-nothing discussion only if you want it to be. There are simply some things that are obvious without the stats. If there's nothing that's obvious, you probably don't know much about the sport.
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Obviously, you're not the only one, TKFH.
At some point, you'd think the moderators might want to have a chat with the guy with 48 posts during a week with only one game.
Want an example of why the discussion takes a dive out here over the years? Here's the perfect example.
I'm still waiting for someone besides the three usual suspects to tell me to shut the f up when I'm being a schmuck. And nobody has said a word. You might want to take that as a hint.
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I find this "There are stats out there, but I'm not going to present them" line of commentary to be particularly weak. The fact is that NU outscored MD 36-21 when Greer was on the court for 17.5 minutes.
Over 40 minutes, that projects to 84-49. We won 67-61. To believe that Greer had a bad game defensively, you would have to believe that everybody else was awesome defensively, but only when Greer was on the court. It just doesn't make sense.
The constructive dynamic that Buie and Greer have (or appear to have) is something to be excited about.
The "Advanced defensive stats" that I have seen rely on the box score as inputs. You get steals, blocked shots and rebounds to work with as inputs. Common sense tells you that those 3 categories cannot possibly capture a player's defensive performance, particularly for guards.
Lastly, regarding "intangibles" - the score of the game captures all of the intangibles. If a guy is really good at forcing tough shots or trapping the guy with the ball or doubling down in the post or anything "intangible" it will gradually show up in the scores of the games.
It is weak. If you cared about the counterpoint, you'd think it would have taken you less than 22 hours to ask about them. Instead, you shot them down without looking at them.
It shows how interested you are in another view - even when based on facts.
You’re not the first to long for the days of more discussion on these boards. With obvious distortion goggles for a time that did not exist. I might not have been posting here at the time. But I was reading it, and it was pitiful. 4-5 years ago the discussion was far less interesting than today. But, hey, there were not 3 usual suspects annoying you. So there’s that.
What a boring, boring board you implicitly advocate for. Mommy daddy, this poster has 48 posts, help, I don’t want them in my sand box. Desperately ridiculous.
Stfu.
But seriously, if no posts then no traffic and no ad revenue. No money means board eventually goes away.
I simply don’t understand why folks either don’t employ ignore feature, or just don’t read things they don’t like or don’t visit during slow weeks.
I like the analysis. Ultimately, the important stat for me is wins and loses. The rest help explain why the wins or losses happen with seemingly talented players. Gives me things to look for while I watch the game. I would not have even noticed MN last game if it hadn’t become such a thing here. And the different lineups and debates surrounding them.
People that try to quash free speech are very closed minded and an insecure IMO. I’m a strong guy - I can read something, disagree and still go about my day. I don’t use ignore, I simply skip crap that doesn’t interest me. Maybe I’m a mental giant among midgets … but I don’t think so. I think you all could do the same. And then maybe stop telling, directing, demanding how other people live their own lives.
4-5 years ago Mike and I dominated the board leading me to lose my screen name. Those were the days…
I will restate what was written above:
1) you can ignore what annoys you. Just carry on. Like everyone else I do get annoyed by some posts or posters here. 90% of the time I just move on
2) there’s a convenient function to automate that process for you. And I’m 100% sure I’m on some lists. Who cares.
For as much as there are 3 usual suspects on one side there are the same suspects on the other. The rest of folks just use the 1) or 2) options outlined above. It works.
1) you can ignore what annoys you. Just carry on. Like everyone else I do get annoyed by some posts or posters here. 90% of the time I just move on
2) there’s a convenient function to automate that process for you. And I’m 100% sure I’m on some lists. Who cares.
For as much as there are 3 usual suspects on one side there are the same suspects on the other. The rest of folks just use the 1) or 2) options outlined above. It works.
Sec 112.
I am not here to make enemies - truly. I am reading and writing on here because I care about NU sports and enjoy watching the games. I also care about the statistical side of sports and like to analyze data to better understand why we are winning or losing. I only stumbled across this forum last year and was frustrated at that time by how Collins was alternating Nance and Young at the 5. Most specifically, I could not believe Collins was regularly putting Young out there with Kopp, Gaines and two other guards. Made no sense to me. Then I found out there were box scores with the lineup changes and went about looking into the relative performance of our lineups. It was very surprising and continues to facilitate insight.
At this point I don't know what you are talking about regarding alternative stats - if you can be more specific, that would help.
No. I’m just tired of the data being seeing as the only answer. Shoot rewatch the Maryland and watch only Beran and Young on defense. Don’t watch anything else. Tell me you think Young is the better defender after that. There aren’t stats for meaningful stats for Defense. Beran is more athletic longer and quicker.
Two I don’t mind seeing the plus minus after every game. Never said I wanted it gone at all. I just hate that it’s put out as gospel and it’s not.
The intangibles is what PWB said +\- measured I just was saying it’s flat out wrong. +\- just captures which team scored more and which scored less while ___ was the court. That’s what it measures. It doesn’t tell you anything about the persons game. Not that they’re a great defender. Not that they’re a great scorer. Not that they communicate well on defense or run the plays on offense. Nothing. Doesnt tell me if the guy is consistently boxing guys out and hauling in boards. Or even if he’s taking charges and providing good help D.
There’s no way to measure intangibles that’s the only point I tried to make up with an intangibles statement. Idrc about the intangibles argument just recruit high quality guys and you’ll get intangibles.
Finally last thing I will ever say about +\- I just had to clarify after this response as obviously I had to break it down as my other post wasn’t read correctly is that stats lie. Every single stats class and statistician knows they lie. I’m not gonna go down and tell how they lie that’s not my job and there’s college 100 classes and manipulation/limitations of stats if you want. I understand eye test is biased and some people have better than others. I’m not saying I just want that. I’m tired of stats as gospel.
Nobody ever said the stats are gospel. Thats a false premise.
Stats are numbers. Numbers are fact. Thus the numbers cannot lie.
I'll assume you mean "People can draw incorrect conclusions from the stats/numbers."
That is certainly true.
But if you think it through, the "+/-" only has value when there are variables involved.
If a coach plays 5 guys for 40 minutes, they will all have the same "+/-"
Not a lot of information there, other than whether the team should win more often than it loses.
But add a 6th player, who subs in for every one of the original 5.
All of a sudden, you have a solid concept of how well each of the 6 players contributes to scoring and defense, or how successful those 6 lineups are. And that provides a firm basis for discussion.
If one combination scores 80 points and gives up 60, while combo #2 scores 70 points and allows 70, it is reasonable to assert that combo #1 is more effective than combo #2. The more data, the stronger the evidence.
Stats are numbers. Numbers are fact. Thus the numbers cannot lie.
I'll assume you mean "People can draw incorrect conclusions from the stats/numbers."
That is certainly true.
But if you think it through, the "+/-" only has value when there are variables involved.
If a coach plays 5 guys for 40 minutes, they will all have the same "+/-"
Not a lot of information there, other than whether the team should win more often than it loses.
But add a 6th player, who subs in for every one of the original 5.
All of a sudden, you have a solid concept of how well each of the 6 players contributes to scoring and defense, or how successful those 6 lineups are. And that provides a firm basis for discussion.
If one combination scores 80 points and gives up 60, while combo #2 scores 70 points and allows 70, it is reasonable to assert that combo #1 is more effective than combo #2. The more data, the stronger the evidence.
The ironic part of all this is I haven’t seen anyone that would have a problem with Young getting more time. Like anything else, some days it will likely work out beautifully and other days not so much.
The point I am trying to make and I think it is similar to 112 and the Kid is this particular stat creeps it’s way into every thread and is presented as gospel of why NU is either successful or not successful. This thread is about Kopp and it devolved into the +/- again.
Ignore might be a great feature, but it in no way increases postings or site traffic. You mention 3 posters going back and forth with 3 others posters over and over. I been around here awhile now and I can guarantee you people elect to not engage and get dragged into a pissing matches more often than doing what I do and the other 5 you mention that go back and forth. How am I so sure, because I know several of them and they have told me either in person or in a PM. PWB seems to insist on introducing his +/- at every occasion. It basically pollutes every thread even when it is a completely different topic and there are zero signs of it ever dissipating, in fact, I am going to predict in only intensifies when we start losing B1G games. Think about why people react so strongly to PWB.
I look forward to you standing up for that idea next time PWB tells us all other stats are BS.
+/- are not gospel. No stat is gospel. Not sure where the idea that it is comes from. To me it feels like mostly it comes from the fingertips of those who hate to see them posted. Anyway, I surely like to see that stat. It makes me look for aspects of the game I might not pay much attention to. Greer’s role is a good example.
If there are posters who do not want to engage, not sure what to tell you about it other than good for them. If that’s the best way for them to deal with it, good for them.
Do you even know what you're typing anymore? Do you understand your own BS?
In the last two days alone, you wrote:
"The fact is that the +/- numbers are by far the best predictor of success or failure ... By Far (repeated for emphasis)."
Let's at least try to get in the ballpark of your little self-imposed guideline that "the argument has to be logical."
He is entitled to his opinions but if he harps on people to stop voicing them, then I will be there to call him out too
They don’t need to infiltrate every thread. You like them, that’s great, but it’s it good for others to not engage, let’s not bemoan the lack of basketball chatter. It’s mind numbing getting a minutes argument and a Nicholson playing time plea in nearly every thread related or not.
You really like to hear yourself type, don't you? We get it. We understand it.. How many more people do you need to hear tell you that we've heard it.
I can't believe some of you believe your own BS. Just yesterday alone, we were given this gem:
"The fact is that the +/- numbers are by far the best predictor of success or failure ... By Far (repeated for emphasis)."
Oh, but you must have missed that and the many times I repeated it. Sure.
That doesn't include the many other times it was written and implied over several months.
I’ve kicked my dog so much reading this thread that he’s started kicking back, and he’s got 4 legs.
Nope, it happens if every thread. Take a look who interjected Coaching into the discussion. PWB seems to think we’ll understand his opinion that CCC is a below average coach by repeating his argument over and over. Guy won’t put away his calculator . It is damn obvious the motivation. If I am wrong that guy is the least self aware of anyone I ever encountered.
Then all the Robin Hood’s ride in on their white steeds to support freedom of speech. Pretty sure if I posted on every thread An opinion that supported a certain Coach, I would be called out as a Kool aid drinker or Pollyanna. So it’s freedom of speech as long as it aligns with my thoughts.
Get another dog, because a half dozen people telling a guy he says the same thing over and over seems to have just made him dig in further.
I understand the all no engaging, this is a lot of the same stuff. Believe me, I do. The reason I read this board, maybe every other week, for years, without posting, was that I did not have the mental energy myself to engage. I spent years working 80+ hours, finding myself mentally too exhausted to even consider posting here. Our first and only win against Vandy was on a day I arrived home after midnight. I watched it on DVR. That was my life.
I probably had the same reaction you do when I read the endless threads, originated or hijacked by the Collins vs Carmody discussion. Could not stand it. Who knows if the board was less dominated by those I’d have posted earlier.
The point is that, regardless of my feelings or yours towards threads, this is not new. And it’s not better or worse. It’s different things at different times, with people having more or less motivation to post. Board is for sure not better or worse because I post or not. Maybe if it was more fluff and clouds more people would join? I don’t know. Maybe. Probably not as it does not seem anyone even remotely close to have recently graduated ever shows any interest in this. We are what we are.
As for me, personally I enjoy posting and I enjoy reading, even the sometimes overly aggressive stances towards my opinions. It comes with having opinions that often go against what a lot of people think. As long as I enjoy it I will be around. The moment I don’t, like the folks you mentioned are not posting, I will disappear.
On a totally unrelated to Kopp or +/-, previously appearing invincible, Purdue is in trouble against NC State.
The common trait I find between NC State and Rutgers is they both play the uber talented inside duo Williams/Eddy straight up. They’ll have their share of points, but we are not going to get bombarded with 3’s by double teaming.
The common trait I find between NC State and Rutgers is they both play the uber talented inside duo Williams/Eddy straight up. They’ll have their share of points, but we are not going to get bombarded with 3’s by double teaming.
I personally think +/- is a great stat for evaluating players. But it's just one data point among many. Sometimes it will tell enough of the story, sometimes it won't, and of course, context is everything. Anyone who wants to use +/- as a jumping-off point to evaluate players is just fine with me. It's only when it's the only stat used repetitively that it will turn me off. Sometimes something as boring as number of rebounds by a player or field-goal percentage is better. It all depends.
I'm not sure what is the No. 1 contributor for board apathy, but if it's "repetitive arguments," I wouldn't be surprised. The repetition is only good once it's gone on for so long that it comes out the other side as a running joke, like Fitz's house in Northfield or Feli's numeric analysis of the Cats before/and after Fitz got there.
And some of the arguments bore just about everybody I bet.
I'm not sure what is the No. 1 contributor for board apathy, but if it's "repetitive arguments," I wouldn't be surprised. The repetition is only good once it's gone on for so long that it comes out the other side as a running joke, like Fitz's house in Northfield or Feli's numeric analysis of the Cats before/and after Fitz got there.
And some of the arguments bore just about everybody I bet.