I agree with your first 2 takes. We will find out Saturday night about how we match up with the Holes. No excuses, but the team, from K on down, was in shock once Zion went down, and then fully deflated once news came that he wasn’t coming back.They made a good point pre-game. Duke is a bad matchup for UVA in Duke's favor. Tre's on ball defense disrupts the UVA game plan which is to put the ball into the hand of a singular ball handler and let that guy run the entire O. Tre disrupts that. Further, UVA wants to encourage "hero" ball, in the assumption that the other team can't score enough points to win that way. Zion and RJ can effectively beat UVA playing Hero ball.
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Conversely, UVA likes seeing UNC. UVA's shooting, and methodical O, limits UNC's leakouts and breaks. UNC has shooters, but UVA has a couple of guys that can make UNC's best players live's miserable.
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More conversely, UNC isn't a great match for Duke, from Duke's POV. UNC uses decentralized ball handling and team running, which limits Tre's effectiveness. UNC can spread out Duke's D by going small, which basically makes K sub in an offensively limited player, while limiting Duke's rebounding, which just lets UNC run out on the break even more. Obviously, Zion changes our D, but UNC matches up as well vs Duke as anybody outside of the Zags.
We can revisit our two posts after the game Saturday. I’m sure this is an instance where you want to be wrong.