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Path to 1 Seed ...?

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nets on nets on nets

All-American
Jun 4, 2015
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This is awesome, however, did they forget Dayton exists??
I'm assuming most projections will have us 2 in the East with Dayton as the 1, which I'm fine with.

Dayton has played 2 teams ranked in the top 25 of Ken-Pom this season, Dayton is 0-2 in those games.
 
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Smythe13

Junior
Nov 6, 2006
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Seton Hall has experienced (old in K speak) guards and size with Gill and Mamukelashvili who have been playing well. Would rather not see them in Duke's bracket, especially in their backyard. I know, you have to play who is front of you.
 
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Quavarius

Heisman
Aug 12, 2009
175,637
22,032
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Smythe13 said:
Seton Hall has experienced (old in K speak) guards and size with Gill and Mamukelashvili who have been playing well. Would rather not see them in Duke's bracket, especially in their backyard. I know, you have to play who is front of you.
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Yes, Seton Hall would be a challenge in the Sweet 16. They are ranked 19th per Ken Pom—40th on offense and 11th on defense.

We certainly have better numbers, but they would give us a fit. That may be the de facto Elite 8 game.
 
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Quavarius

Heisman
Aug 12, 2009
175,637
22,032
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In one other bracket I saw, they had Villanova as the 3-seed in the East. I’d much rather play Seton Hall than Villanova.
 
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nets on nets on nets

All-American
Jun 4, 2015
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Quavarius said:
In one other bracket I saw, they had Villanova as the 3-seed in the East. I’d much rather play Seton Hall than Villanova.
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I think we matchup better with Villanova honestly. Villanova lives with the 3-ball, we defend the 3-ball as good as anyone. Villanova doesn't have great athletes, that seems to be an ingredient to beat us.

Seton Hall, I'd be worried about Powell going off against us, plus they have a lot of athletic dudes. I'm fine if they are our 3-seed, but I'd much prefer some other teams.
 
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Quavarius

Heisman
Aug 12, 2009
175,637
22,032
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jwill133 said:
I think we matchup better with Villanova honestly. Villanova lives with the 3-ball, we defend the 3-ball as good as anyone. Villanova doesn't have great athletes, that seems to be an ingredient to beat us.

Seton Hall, I'd be worried about Powell going off against us, plus they have a lot of athletic dudes. I'm fine if they are our 3-seed, but I'd much prefer some other teams.
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Per KenPom, Villanova is the opposite of Seton Hall. Nova is 52nd on D and 12th on O. Also, don’t they have that kid Sediq Bey? I’m sure I misspelled his name.
 
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nets on nets on nets

All-American
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Quavarius said:
Per KenPom, Villanova is the opposite of Seton Hall. Nova is 52nd on D and 12th on O. Also, don’t have that kid Sediq Bey? I’m sure I misspelled his name.
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Yes, I know who you're referring to. He's Villanova's 1 athlete, who could give us problems.
Not factoring the NC St game, because we didn't show up, all 3 of our other losses are to teams with a similar profile....long, athletic, not-great shooting but they attack the rim at will type teams.

I'd prefer not to play an elite defense that can possibly get hot from 3 and beat us. Seton Hall fits that profile.
Villanova is basically the opposite like you said. We can score on them at will, and the best thing they do: shoot the 3, is the best thing we defend. I think it's a great matchup, would be tough to play either of these 2 at MSG though.
 
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Quavarius

Heisman
Aug 12, 2009
175,637
22,032
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jwill133 said:
Yes, I know who you're referring to. He's Villanova's 1 athlete, who could give us problems.
Not factoring the NC St game, because we didn't show up, all 3 of our other losses are to teams with a similar profile....long, athletic, not-great shooting but they attack the rim at will type teams.

I'd prefer not to play an elite defense that can possibly get hot from 3 and beat us. Seton Hall fits that profile.
Villanova is basically the opposite like you said. We can score on them at will, and the best thing they do: shoot the 3, is the best thing we defend. I think it's a great matchup, would be tough to play either of these 2 at MSG though.
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Agreed
 
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Mac9192

Heisman
Jan 25, 2017
9,133
12,944
107
I worry about any team that passes the ball well, and spreads you out. Villanova does that, even though they live by the 3. Not saying we wouldn’t beat them, but they would be a handful.
 
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chov1125

All-Conference
Oct 15, 2008
3,044
1,826
73
Fourteen44 said:
I do want to ask though, would you want to face UK in the tourney? I’m being serious - they concern me this year.
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This is a weird year for Duke. Normally we have easily identifiable strengths and weaknesses. This year our biggest mystery is consistency. When we play near our ceiling we can beat anyone, UK very much included. When we play near our floor we can be beat by almost anyone, UK included. We know what we have in Tre and Vern. The next 3 weeks we need to see consistency from the next tier.

UK is talented and playing better, I would agree with that. But they also play to their competition, they don’t blow really anyone out. In a single loss elimination tournament, that is a dangerous trait to have. You are right, they could make a run. Or they could lose the first weekend.
 
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nets on nets on nets

All-American
Jun 4, 2015
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chov1125 said:
This is a weird year for Duke. Normally we have easily identifiable strengths and weaknesses. This year our biggest mystery is consistency. When we play near our ceiling we can beat anyone, UK very much included. When we play near our floor we can be beat by almost anyone, UK included. We know what we have in Tre and Vern. The next 3 weeks we need to see consistency from the next tier.

UK is talented and playing better, I would agree with that. But they also play to their competition, they don’t blow really anyone out. In a single loss elimination tournament, that is a dangerous trait to have. You are right, they could make a run. Or they could lose the first weekend.
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UK has defined all their roles and they know who they are, from what I have seen. They play 3 solid guards, have Richards the big man in the middle, and rotate the 4-man among multiple guys who none are very good. Quickley going from a bench guy to pretty much their best player is remarkable. They are also barely beating bad teams so I wouldn't consider their last month impressive or anything.

IMO UK's downfall will be a big scoring wing. Again, they play 3 small guards and then 2 bigs. Myles Powell for example, would kill them. They will have no answer for a guy who can score over their guards and is too quick for their bigs. There is not a Wendell Moore on that roster, they have no swiss-army knife.
 
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tripleb71

Senior
Dec 1, 2016
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509
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Where'd all the KY love come from all of a sudden? I've watched thier last few games and they've limped along since Auburn beat them.

They are certainly better than they were a month ago...but what switch flipped that I am unaware of lol
 
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denverexpat

All-Conference
Feb 1, 2006
4,456
3,172
93
With the Zags and SDSU losses I expected them to fall further in the rankings....but it seems to have had very little effect. Maybe a sign of how some think quite highly of those teams despite where they play
 
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Fourteen44

All-Conference
Apr 16, 2012
4,442
4,520
0
tripleb71 said:
Where'd all the KY love come from all of a sudden? I've watched thier last few games and they've limped along since Auburn beat them.

They are certainly better than they were a month ago...but what switch flipped that I am unaware of lol
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I brought it up, mainly because they have 3 quality guards who can cause havoc. That tends to work well in the tourney. They’ve certainly had some squeakers but I expect that from young teams. Could that screw them in the end? Maybe, but I have a feeling they’ll make real noise in March.
 
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dukedevilz

Heisman
Apr 3, 2002
15,637
19,600
0
San Diego State and Gonzaga both deserve to be on the 1 line. San Diego State crushed Creighton, they comfortably beat Iowa, and they beat BYU on the road. SDSU is, however, playing without their starting center. I don't think they're as strong as they were in November/December. I think Duke fans should be very content being a #2 in the East with SDSU as the #1 seed.

Here are the average seedings of 90+ bracketologists:

Baylor: 1.00
Kansas: 1.00
Gonzaga: 1.14
San Diego State: 1.50
----------------------------
Duke: 1.81
Dayton: 1.88
Maryland: 1.96
Florida State: 2.44

Should SDSU lose again, which I think is very possible, then Duke-Maryland would probably have the most ground to gain. Utah State is playing really well in February. I think they could take down SDSU in the MWC tourney. Have a hard time imagining Gonzaga losing again, but I suppose it's possible.
 
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dukedevilz

Heisman
Apr 3, 2002
15,637
19,600
0
Realistically, I think we either want to win out in the regular season OR

1 loss + win the ACC Tournament.

If we lose two games, I think it's likely that Maryland takes over the 2-spot in the East.

If we win the final 7 games, then our chances for a 1 seed should be reasonably high.
 
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chov1125

All-Conference
Oct 15, 2008
3,044
1,826
73
tripleb71 said:
Where'd all the KY love come from all of a sudden? I've watched thier last few games and they've limped along since Auburn beat them.

They are certainly better than they were a month ago...but what switch flipped that I am unaware of lol
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That is the theme this year in college hoops, just win. Doesn’t matter against who or how well you look. If you win enough games in a row you will continue to rise. The tournament is going to be a complete mystery.
 
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DiehardDukeFan4Life

All-Conference
Jan 20, 2011
5,963
3,524
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dukedevilz said:
Realistically, I think we either want to win out in the regular season OR

1 loss + win the ACC Tournament.

If we lose two games, I think it's likely that Maryland takes over the 2-spot in the East.

If we win the final 7 games, then our chances for a 1 seed should be reasonably high.
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I agree with this. If we win the rest of our regular season games then go on to win the ACC Tournament then I think we’ll be in the running for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. IMO opinion any of the current top 7-9 ranked teams could potentially end up getting a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament depending on how they do in the rest of their regular season games and conference tournaments.
 
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peterjurkinsquirtsroywilliams

All-Conference
Dec 12, 2012
1,289
1,371
0
#1 seed is no more. Duke needs to focus on closing out games. THis team has the potential to win the title, but also has the potential to get beat in the first round. I love this team but man, they're bipolar.
 
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timo0402

Heisman
Feb 24, 2009
13,868
13,709
57
peterjurkinsquirtsroywilliams said:
#1 seed is no more. Duke needs to focus on closing out games. THis team has the potential to win the title, but also has the potential to get beat in the first round. I love this team but man, they're bipolar.
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Serious question, can you ever think of a team where we said, “i can see them winning it all or losing in the first round,” that ended up doing anything of note? I’ve been guilty of saying this line myself and it got me to thinking- i remember teams I’ve said this about and it always ends poorly. I don’t recall saying it about any team that actually went far. I would have to go back to see if i ever said it about the 2017 team.
 
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HuffyJB

All-Conference
Jan 13, 2005
5,931
3,890
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1 seed talk was already a little far fetched, and is now completely over. What is the best case scenario? Still the 2 seed in the East? I think that would take some doing, and I think it is unreasonable at this point to expect Duke to win out. Would the 3 seed in the East be the next most appealing seed for Duke, or the 2 in another region? Can Duke weather even one more loss (which I would imagine is nearly a certainty) and still be a 2 seed?
 
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tripleb71

Senior
Dec 1, 2016
1,109
509
0
timo0402 said:
Serious question, can you ever think of a team where we said, “i can see them winning it all or losing in the first round,” that ended up doing anything of note? I’ve been guilty of saying this line myself and it got me to thinking- i remember teams I’ve said this about and it always ends poorly. I don’t recall saying it about any team that actually went far. I would have to go back to see if i ever said it about the 2017 team.
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In my experience, the early round loss is what happens to teams with this label lol
 
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