Pete Thamel Article.....ouch

[Sultan__of__Swine]

From predicting Bobby Petrino was quietly on the hot seat prior to the season to highlighting Louisville’s consistently pathetic performances throughout the year, the lowlights of the Cardinal program have been dutifully chronicled on Yahoo Sports. We predicted the hire of Brian VanGorder would be a disaster, just like his time at Notre Dame. And it has. We predicted that Bobby Petrino having three relatives on his staff making a total of $650,000 would be an issue, especially because they were lightly qualified. And, well, they have.

But what no one could have predicted is how obvious Louisville’s decision to fire Bobby Petrino and eat the $14 million buyout would become. Louisville is in shaky financial straits, as the departures of Tom Jurich cost $4.5 million and the hiring of new basketball coach Chris Mack will cost $28 million over the next seven years. (There’s a $40 million lawsuit regarding Rick Pitino looming as well.)

But as colleague Pat Forde pointed out in a tweet on Saturday, the Louisville football program plummeted to a nadir where Louisville can’t afford to not fire Petrino. We’ve become numb to Louisville masquerading as a Sun Belt team and unsurprised by lowlights like the ironically named Marlon Character celebrating an illegal hit on a defenseless returner while trailing by 46. This is the new normal at Louisville, somewhere south of the crossroads of inept and undisciplined. Even the most cynical pessimist couldn’t have predicted these depths.

 

[beantowncard]

Thanks, Pete. Great reporting. I wouldn’t have known this otherwise. I really admire guys who pile on.

Jackass

 

[CardX]

Thanks, Pete. Great reporting. I wouldn’t have known this otherwise. I really admire guys who pile on.

Jackass

We need more piling on, actually. Let that pressure mount.

 

[fredburgcard_rivals157045]

Thanks, Pete. Great reporting. I wouldn’t have known this otherwise. I really admire guys who pile on.

Jackass

Being a sports columnist means you get paid to state the obvious. Tough job.

 

[Knucklehank1]

Thamel was one who had Petrino on the hot seat before most anybody else.

 

[zipp_rivals]

I really like "can't afford not to" perspectives from people who make no effort to do an "affordability" calculation. Talk about credibility...

 

[Staff4444]

Louisville did not lose money on getting rid of Jurich. That scum bag made 2.7 million in 2016, so they got rid of mounting debt and stealing from other sources. The 4.5 million he got has already been saved by letting him go and Pitino is not getting chit.

 

[CardX]

I really like "can't afford not to" perspectives from people who make no effort to do an "affordability" calculation. Talk about credibility...

If you’re hanging on to “can’t afford it,” well, good luck. I’m a Jurich guy, but I’ve learned not to underestimate Tyra. He’s already on record the buyout won’t be an issue.

 

[zipp_rivals]

Louisville did not lose money on getting rid of Jurich. That scum bag made 2.7 million in 2016, so they got rid of mounting debt and stealing from other sources. The 4.5 million he got has already been saved by letting him go and Pitino is not getting chit.

Do you have evidence for any of that?...

 

[zipp_rivals]

If you’re hanging on to “can’t afford it,” well, good luck. I’m a Jurich guy, but I’ve learned not to underestimate Tyra. He’s already on record the buyout won’t be an issue.

Tyra told you more recently that the ULAA is out of money...

 

[CardX]

Tyra told you more recently that the ULAA is out of money...

It’s admirable you want to hang on to a guy who just lost by 61 points, but if you think money is an issue regarding Petrino’s departure, again, good luck.

 

[beantowncard]

Thamel was one who had Petrino on the hot seat before most anybody else.

A stopped clock.

 

[zipp_rivals]

It’s admirable you want to hang on to a guy who just lost by 61 points, but if you think money is an issue regarding Petrino’s departure, again, good luck.

I'm not committed to anyone. I'd just like to hear where ten-plus millions of dollars are coming from. So far, all I've witnessed are platitudes and arm waving...

 

[EKYCard643]

Here's all we know Zipp....we don't know anything specific about where the money could or could not come from to buy out Petrino.

We have all your data that you've shown us that illustrate the point that based on what we know the money does not appear to be available for such a buyout.

Here's something else.....Tyra has not played this at all like an AD who absolutely could not find the money to afford the buyout. He could easily stand behind his coach and back the coaching staff but he isn't.....and he's NOT doing that during a season where the media has made Louisville the laughing stock of college football and there's new articles every day about how Louisville needs to fire Petrino and he's also doing not doing that during a season where fan vitriol, anger and unhappiness with the program is at maybe an all time high.

So, we have an AD who's NOT standing behind his coach and we have nearly every person in the UL media speaking from a place of near certainty that BP will be fired. I'm not sure how connected those in the media are....but I've heard and read enough from various local sports media to know somebody, somewhere is getting legit information that at least hints at what the plan is and that plan seems to overwhelming be: Petrino will be fired.

All I'm saying is....No, based on the data that you present us....we don't see how they pay it. But based on everything else, this situation is certainly playing out like Petrino is coaching his last 3 games for Louisville.

 

[STLNBSE]

I’m confused as to why people in the “we have no money camp” think that we can’t borrow the money, or negotiate different terms with our soon-to-be-departed coach who clearly wants no part of coaching anymore. We may not be dealing with a surplus of liquidity, but that certainly doesn’t mean you stick with a sunk cost. In layman’s terms this is going to hurt either way. Might as well make the wise choice of energizing the fan base.

 

[EKYCard643]

I’m confused as to why people in the “we have no money camp” think that we can’t borrow the money, or negotiate different terms with our soon-to-be-departed coach who clearly wants no part of coaching anymore. We may not be dealing with a surplus of liquidity, but that certainly doesn’t mean you stick with a sunk cost. In layman’s terms this is going to hurt either way. Might as well make the wise choice of energizing the fan base.

I'm not sure either. I mean obviously I'm not familiar with the intricate workings of a major athletic department but I would assume there's a number of different ways they could arrange to get rid of Petrino. Its not as if they have to drive a Brinks truck with $14 million up to his house on the day he's fired.

 

[birdie king]

It’s admirable you want to hang on to a guy who just lost by 61 points, but if you think money is an issue regarding Petrino’s departure, again, good luck.

Money will not be an issue, but for some I don't think that point will ever get through

 

[zipp_rivals]

Why would Petrino negotiate to take anything less than his contract entitles him to? What's his motivation? The longer he works, the more money he collects of his $350,000 per month salary.

How can you know that "money will not be an issue?" Because Tyra said so? He just said last week that the ULAA is almost out of cash; it will be by the end of this fiscal year just to meet regular operating expenses.

Tyra is a populist AD. He takes the pulse of the fanbase and will always say what fans wanna hear. He equates his personal success to his popularity. You have to filter what he says by who he is...

 

[birdie king]

How do I know "money will not be an issue?" Because Tricky Tom Meeker said it would be !

 

[PushupMan]

I'm not committed to anyone. I'd just like to hear where ten-plus millions of dollars are coming from. So far, all I've witnessed are platitudes and arm waving...

A little of it will come quietly from big donors. Papa John has a lot of money now that he’s not paying for naming rights. Some of it will come from everyday fans (like my ex-brother-in-law, who is highly moral and as a result hated that we kept Pitino after the Sypher affair became public and that we rehired Petrino despite his affair with Jessica Dorrell. He vowed not to show up for a basketball or football game again until those guys were gone).

And quite honestly, a very good chunk of it will come from Notre Dame fans in the Louisville area, who will snap up season tickets just to get that first game next year. Some will even keep them for a few years, just because Notre Dame will be coming back to Louisville in. 2023. I’m guessing Clemson fans will be buying quite a few, as well.

A little of it will also come from the $27 million annual revenue that UofL currently gets each year from the ACC. That number is before the launch of the ACC network... which will be highly successful because of the high profile of most of the ACC schools, located in big markets like Boston, New York State, Pittsburgh, Miami, Virginia (including Washington DC), North Carolina, Louisville, and Georgia (Atlanta), Miami, and Tallahassee. Once that network launches, you can expect that $27 million to grow by 60%.

 

[zipp_rivals]

Let's take these points one at a time...

A little of it will come quietly from big donors. Papa John has a lot of money now that he’s not paying for naming rights...

You really think U of L at this time wants to take money from a racist? You think they can chance a guy with loose lips getting boozed up and bragging how he financed Petrino's buyout? BTW he's probably using most of his net worth at the moment for another "buyout"--to get his old company back.

...Some of it will come from everyday fans...

Actually, those fans have been abandoning U of L since the regime takeover, not coming back. Look at U of L's financial situation as it was just reported by Tyra. Little of that included the impact of Petrino's demise--tickets and donations this year had already been banked.

...And quite honestly, a very good chunk of it will come from Notre Dame fans in the Louisville area, who will snap up season tickets just to get that first game next year. Some will even keep them for a few years, just because Notre Dame will be coming back to Louisville in. 2023. I’m guessing Clemson fans will be buying quite a few, as well...

This is backwards analysis... A good home schedule next year works AGAINST Petrino's dismissal. If you're gonna sell tickets anyway and that's an overriding factor in your analysis, there's less need to worry about who's coaching the team.

...A little of it will also come from the $27 million annual revenue that UofL currently gets each year from the ACC. That number is before the launch of the ACC network... which will be highly successful...

And you get that money whether you fire Petrino or not. It may also in fact be earmarked for other purposes, e.g., paying off the ESPN Studio cost. That revenue has been promised for a couple years now and perhaps committed already...

 

[Williedynamite]

Let's take these points one at a time...

You really think U of L at this time wants to take money from a racist? You think they can chance a guy with loose lips getting boozed up and bragging how he financed Petrino's buyout? BTW he's probably using most of his net worth at the moment for another "buyout"--to get his old company back.

Actually, those fans have been abandoning U of L since the regime takeover, not coming back. Look at U of L's financial situation as it was just reported by Tyra. Little of that included the impact of Petrino's demise--tickets and donations this year had already been banked.

This is backwards analysis... A good home schedule next year works AGAINST Petrino's dismissal. If you're gonna sell tickets anyway and that's an overriding factor in your analysis, there's less need to worry about who's coaching the team.

And you get that money whether you fire Petrino or not. It may also in fact be earmarked for other purposes, e.g., paying off the ESPN Studio cost. That revenue has been promised for a couple years now and perhaps committed already...

We can keep Bobby. But at this point he’s losing recruits and won’t have much a class coming in. The current players have quit on him and if he stays they most likely won’t come back. He has a hard time recruiting other coaches to coach with him. So replacing his staff with good hires will be difficult.

Most important most of the fans have given up on Bobby. Vince may not have a choice but to find donors to help pay for the buyout. If we keep Bobby the stands will be empty. Outside of the Notre Dame game it’ll be a ghost town. Which may cost UL more money than firing him. Especially if he has a season likes he’s having now.

 

[zipp_rivals]

...Vince may not have a choice but to find donors to help pay for the buyout...

See, that's the underlying problem... This mess is far less manageable because "Vince" can't find these donors. He can't raise outside money, and that was a concern about him coming into the job.

I've argued that the clown show is really why you're in this mess. They didn't cause Petrino to start coaching badly, they just removed most of the remedies you have for dealing with a problem like this. You don't fix the smaller problems--as bad as football is--without addressing the bigger ones...

 

[Rollem Cards]

Louisville did not lose money on getting rid of Jurich. That scum bag made 2.7 million in 2016, so they got rid of mounting debt and stealing from other sources. The 4.5 million he got has already been saved by letting him go and Pitino is not getting chit.

Nice first post troll.

 

[PushupMan]

Let's take these points one at a time...

You really think U of L at this time wants to take money from a racist? You think they can chance a guy with loose lips getting boozed up and bragging how he financed Petrino's buyout? BTW he's probably using most of his net worth at the moment for another "buyout"--to get his old company back.

Actually, those fans have been abandoning U of L since the regime takeover, not coming back. Look at U of L's financial situation as it was just reported by Tyra. Little of that included the impact of Petrino's demise--tickets and donations this year had already been banked.

This is backwards analysis... A good home schedule next year works AGAINST Petrino's dismissal. If you're gonna sell tickets anyway and that's an overriding factor in your analysis, there's less need to worry about who's coaching the team.

And you get that money whether you fire Petrino or not. It may also in fact be earmarked for other purposes, e.g., paying off the ESPN Studio cost. That revenue has been promised for a couple years now and perhaps committed already...

"Papa John" was just an example, but you'd better believe they would accept a donation for Petrino's buyout from him or anyone else who wanted to donate a million or more.

My ex-brother-in-law loved UofL football and would definitely be coming back if Petrino were fired. For just about anybody.

As I've said repeatedly, I'm okay with keeping him one more year, so I tend to agree that tickets sold to Clemson and Notre Dame fans works against firing him. But that doesn't change the fact that the money from UofL fans (energized by a new hire), Notre Dame fans, and Clemson fans would mean more tickets sold than otherwise. And that this money would definitely be used for the purpose I stated in my original post: to pay for the buyout. And firing Petrino for someone new (assuming it was the right someone), the UofL fans would be more likely to stick with the team when it struggles in that first year, which means more revenue generated at each game during the season.

The money from the ACC Network is unlikely to be committed in any way that's permanent at this point, because there's no way to know exactly how much money it's going to be in that first year. But there's little doubt that, as the profit from the venture becomes concrete and predictable, the UofL athletic department can plan to siphon some of it off to pay for Petrino's salary for the remainder of his contract, from 2019 to 2024.

 

[zipp_rivals]

"Papa John" was just an example, but you'd better believe they would accept a donation for Petrino's buyout from him or anyone else who wanted to donate a million or more.

My ex-brother-in-law loved UofL football and would definitely be coming back if Petrino were fired. For just about anybody.

As I've said repeatedly, I'm okay with keeping him one more year, so I tend to agree that tickets sold to Clemson and Notre Dame fans works against firing him. But that doesn't change the fact that the money from UofL fans (energized by a new hire), Notre Dame fans, and Clemson fans would mean more tickets sold than otherwise. And that this money would definitely be used for the purpose I stated in my original post: to pay for the buyout. And firing Petrino for someone new (assuming it was the right someone), the UofL fans would be more likely to stick with the team when it struggles in that first year, which means more revenue generated at each game during the season.

The money from the ACC Network is unlikely to be committed in any way that's permanent at this point, because there's no way to know exactly how much money it's going to be in that first year. But there's little doubt that, as the profit from the venture becomes concrete and predictable, the UofL athletic department can plan to siphon some of it off to pay for Petrino's salary for the remainder of his contract, from 2019 to 2024.

I was in the biz of financial justification for a long time... You never base an expenditure on unrelated revenue. Hell, the IRS doesn't allow that for tax deductibility. If the Petrino/Brohm swap is worth pursuing, it's worth pursuing on its own merits incl. someone giving you money for that purpose.

I'll stand by my assessment that no one is currently bankrolling U of L for any purpose. Why wouldn't someone give U of L money for Chris Mack's buyout if several million was easy to raise? That would have been a very positive and public donation. Defies logic that someone's willing to write a similar check that can never be acknowledged. I try to connect all of the dots...

 

[Williedynamite]

UL is in a horrible position. The buyout for Petrino is insane. It almost forces you to keep him until the end of the contract. However, the loss in revenue because the fans stop coming to the games may be even more than the buyouts.

After the ND we will be lucky to get 20K people show up. Especially if the staff doesn’t change and play on the field makes a big turn around. Not to mention the recruiting class is horrible and with each decommitt it gets worse. Then you have all of the player transfers. It’s just a big mess.

I’m the end, I think the loss of revenue because fans stop attending the games will out weigh the buyout. Forcing UL’s hand.
Most likely raising student fees for athletics.