Pick Your Poison HS vs Just Another Lincoln Way

[JCHILLTOPPERS]

Ok - let's get down to brass tax:

Record:
LWN: 11-0
HS: 8-3

Playoff Opponents:
LWN: 5
HS: 2

Common Opponent:
Thorton: LWN win by 2; HS win by 11

PF/PA - differential:
LWN: 387/184 - 203
HS: 409/221 - 188

Analysis: Where to start? While HS has played the tougher single opponent in GW, LWW has played a more overall difficult schedule. However, against the common opponent, HS was nine points better. But, while LWN is undefeated, HS had a major let down and lost to Willowbrook.

Let's go to the playoffs...cause that made it no clearer.

LWN: Wins over Centenial and RIchards for a combine 58-10
HS: Wins over Thorton and Oak Forest: 81-37


Ok, a picture is developing, though it might be one we already knew. The game will come down to each team's strength: LWN's defense vs HS's offense.

HS has seen a better defense this season than LWN's - GW's. HS put up 31 on GW, which is quite a bit. If your are an HS fan, I think that is the season stat onto which you have to hang your hat.

But then there is that damn outlier, Willowbrook. What does that mean? What does it mean when coupling that with the fact the only two teams HS beat this year with a winning record were in Round 1 and 2 of the playoffs?

Eye test? Not sure. I've watched plenty of both teams. HS can score, but so can LWN. LWN can play some dynamite defense, but I've seen HS put up 31 points against GW. I watched both against Thorton - and while HS had a higher margin of victory, it was not by a meaningful one.

 

[hornetnation7]

Ok - let's get down to brass tax:

Record:
LWN: 11-0
HS: 8-3

Playoff Opponents:
LWN: 5
HS: 2

Common Opponent:
Thorton: LWN win by 2; HS win by 11

PF/PA - differential:
LWN: 387/184 - 203
HS: 409/221 - 188

Analysis: Where to start? While HS has played the tougher single opponent in GW, LWW has played a more overall difficult schedule. However, against the common opponent, HS was nine points better. But, while LWN is undefeated, HS had a major let down and lost to Willowbrook.

Let's go to the playoffs...cause that made it no clearer.

LWN: Wins over Centenial and RIchards for a combine 58-10
HS: Wins over Thorton and Oak Forest: 81-37


Ok, a picture is developing, though it might be one we already knew. The game will come down to each team's strength: LWN's defense vs HS's offense.

HS has seen a better defense this season than LWN's - GW's. HS put up 31 on GW, which is quite a bit. If your are an HS fan, I think that is the season stat onto which you have to hang your hat.

But then there is that damn outlier, Willowbrook. What does that mean? What does it mean when coupling that with the fact the only two teams HS beat this year with a winning record were in Round 1 and 2 of the playoffs?

Eye test? Not sure. I've watched plenty of both teams. HS can score, but so can LWN. LWN can play some dynamite defense, but I've seen HS put up 31 points against GW. I watched both against Thorton - and while HS had a higher margin of victory, it was not by a meaningful one.

JC,
Good analysis. Couple comments:

The Willowbrook loss, while a head scratcher will not mean anything going in this week's game. Classic let down game, it happens.

As for Thornton, HS dominated that game, start to finish. If not for a kickoff return for td with 2 mins let, we have a 34 - 7 score. I think LWN beat Thornton by 2. I think there is a meaningful when comparing common opponent.

Also, recall HS took HC to wire before falling in ot. Just another data point. I think that was a measuring stick game for HS against a highly ranked 8a opponent at the time.

 

[capnbillhitters]

I wouldn't want to play HS right now. those cats owned OF last night. There won't be any letdowns or lack of focus next Saturday.

I haven't watched LWN this year but also wouldn't want to play a bunch of kids with the chip those dude have on their shoulder.

I will take HS 34-24

 

[JCHILLTOPPERS]

JC,
Good analysis. Couple comments:

The Willowbrook loss, while a head scratcher will not mean anything going in this week's game. Classic let down game, it happens.

As for Thornton, HS dominated that game, start to finish. If not for a kickoff return for td with 2 mins let, we have a 34 - 7 score. I think LWN beat Thornton by 2. I think there is a meaningful when comparing common opponent.

Also, recall HS took HC to wire before falling in ot. Just another data point. I think that was a measuring stick game for HS against a highly ranked 8a opponent at the time.

I do believe in let down games, and I do believe common opponents mean somethings. As the captain points out, too, not sure it is the best time to face HS.

Re: the common opponent: I don't think a nine point score differential in a common opponent analysis is a meaningful difference, especially given that LWN played Thorton first...and I'm sure HS learned something from that game...maybe about LWN as well.

Re: HC: I'm not too sure in what we had in HC this season. HS is the only team HC beat with a winning record in the end. They were good, but because I don't know how good, I can't use them as a standard. I like your loss to GW much better. The game was closer until later, and GW is very solid team.

I have to stay true to my DSR-nod to LWN, but IMO, this is a true pick-em and a classic quarter-finals match-up.

 

[hornetnation7]

JC,

OK, fair responses.

At the end of the day, LWN is 10-0 and the number 1 seed. So should be considered the favorite. If HS can prevail, it will truely be an upset. Go hornets.

 

[JCHILLTOPPERS]

JC,

OK, fair responses.

At the end of the day, LWN is 10-0 and the number 1 seed. So should be considered the favorite. If HS can prevail, it will truely be an upset. Go hornets.

honestly, i do not think there is a favorite in the game.Pick'em

 

[Wild_Mustang]

Early line is LWN -2.5 and the O/U is 45.

 

[Bwm57]

That might be about right with the usual 3 points for home field.

 

[JCHILLTOPPERS]

let's all go back to preseason..prouddad loves that "pick your poison" line! Looks like we were all pretty accurate on HS. Decent regular season and a very solid run to the 6A quarters; then the question mark: http://edgytim.forums.rivals.com/threads/hinsdale-south.2589/

But, i must admit, i Sandbagged big time in the original thread; and, why ultimately, i leaned toward LWN on this one. THE DAMN GAME IS ON SATURDAY at LWN! and, as we all remember my man @wildmustang's now infamous lpost on 15 July:

"... It's a Saturday game, if you don't play on Saturday's regularly it's the biggest home field advantage in sports. I just don't think you can use that game as a measuring stick mainly because it's on a Saturday. Look at South last year on Saturday games...Hinsdale Central Loss 42-14 & St. Francis Loss 41-14...83-21 combined. Guarantee you if those games are on Fridays it's closer, I would bet money they beat St. Francis..." http://edgytim.forums.rivals.com/threads/the-key-game-on-your-teams-schedule.2703/​

SAME THING THIS YEAR! HS's two of HS's three loses, to GW and HC were on Saturdays!!!!!! What the hell is going on here!

Damn it @wildmustang! As i was in the preseason (see earlier link), I'm pulling for you all, but why does the game have to be on a damn Saturday!!!

I love this stuff.

 

[pjjp]

I see this game as the more talented team (HS) vs. a possible team of destiny (LWN). LWN seems to have that certain spark where they just believe they will win the close games (ie Richards twice and LWW). That trait is difficult to quantify. However, I think talent wins out in this one, and HS wins a close one.

 

[Wild_Mustang]

let's all go back to preseason..prouddad loves that "pick your poison" line! Looks like we were all pretty accurate on HS. Decent regular season and a very solid run to the 6A quarters; then the question mark: http://edgytim.forums.rivals.com/threads/hinsdale-south.2589/

But, i must admit, i Sandbagged big time in the original thread; and, why ultimately, i leaned toward LWN on this one. THE DAMN GAME IS ON SATURDAY at LWN! and, as we all remember my man @wildmustang's now infamous lpost on 15 July:

"... It's a Saturday game, if you don't play on Saturday's regularly it's the biggest home field advantage in sports. I just don't think you can use that game as a measuring stick mainly because it's on a Saturday. Look at South last year on Saturday games...Hinsdale Central Loss 42-14 & St. Francis Loss 41-14...83-21 combined. Guarantee you if those games are on Fridays it's closer, I would bet money they beat St. Francis..." http://edgytim.forums.rivals.com/threads/the-key-game-on-your-teams-schedule.2703/​

SAME THING THIS YEAR! HS's two of HS's three loses, to GW and HC were on Saturdays!!!!!! What the hell is going on here!

Damn it @wildmustang! As i was in the preseason (see earlier link), I'm pulling for you all, but why does the game have to be on a damn Saturday!!!

I love this stuff.

Hahah, well done. Very well done. @JCHILLTOPPERS, great post. If I could give you a fist bump I would. If it's a Saturday game past 5pm CT then they're good, I should've clarified. If it was a noon game then they'd be toast.

 

[hornetnation7]

let's all go back to preseason..prouddad loves that "pick your poison" line! Looks like we were all pretty accurate on HS. Decent regular season and a very solid run to the 6A quarters; then the question mark: http://edgytim.forums.rivals.com/threads/hinsdale-south.2589/

But, i must admit, i Sandbagged big time in the original thread; and, why ultimately, i leaned toward LWN on this one. THE DAMN GAME IS ON SATURDAY at LWN! and, as we all remember my man @wildmustang's now infamous lpost on 15 July:

"... It's a Saturday game, if you don't play on Saturday's regularly it's the biggest home field advantage in sports. I just don't think you can use that game as a measuring stick mainly because it's on a Saturday. Look at South last year on Saturday games...Hinsdale Central Loss 42-14 & St. Francis Loss 41-14...83-21 combined. Guarantee you if those games are on Fridays it's closer, I would bet money they beat St. Francis..." http://edgytim.forums.rivals.com/threads/the-key-game-on-your-teams-schedule.2703/​

SAME THING THIS YEAR! HS's two of HS's three loses, to GW and HC were on Saturdays!!!!!! What the hell is going on here!

Damn it @wildmustang! As i was in the preseason (see earlier link), I'm pulling for you all, but why does the game have to be on a damn Saturday!!!

I love this stuff.

JC,

WOW, you dug up the pre-season chatter on HS. You are the man! How time flies.

PS: We will be fine on Saturday.

 

[Bwm57]

I heard they were going to move the game to Saturday at noon.

 

[Wild_Mustang]

Spread is now -1.5 LWN with the OU at 43. I expect a low scoring, slug fest in this game. LWN is 11-0 for a reason and their defense is pretty stout. South can do it all on offense but it'll be the toughest task they have faced all year, in regards to defense. I would say GBW defensively but LWN probably has a lot of film on them as to where GBW was week 2, just my opinion. Here is my prediction:

Hinsdale South 24
Lincoln Way North 21 OT

The X-Factor, South's kicker.

But daw gawnit this is going to be a hell of a game to go watch.

 

[Wild_Mustang]

Anyone know of any local establishments close to the school (LWN) that serve food and booze? Preferably as close to the school as possible. Thanks.

 

[anon_4vszfu35bv677]

There are a number of places in the plaza just south of I80 and Harlem. There's a TGI Fridays there. It is about 1/2 mile north of the school.

 

[Wild_Mustang]

There are a number of places in the plaza just south of I80 and Harlem. There's a TGI Fridays there. It is about 1/2 mile north of the school.

My guy! Thanks. I'll be the guy who runs on the field during the game like Dennis Hopper from the movie Hoosiers. I'm kidding.

 

[Wild_Mustang]

I'm going to 350 Brewing Company..........

 

[Bwm57]

I'm going to 350 Brewing Company..........

That's a good choice and nearby.