Playing Time Next Season

[df64]

Problem with Cam's inconsistency was that we really needed a 3rd scorer and we really, really needed 3 pt shooting from him.
Hopefully, we wont need AJ to be our 3rd scorer and we should have better team 3 pt shooting than 18/19. If Moore, Keels, Roach, and Joey shoot as poorly from outside as Cam, Tre, Alex, Jack, and Joey did, then we are going to need AJ to play like a lottery pick.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Year	DD* mpg	25+ mpg	30+ mpg	W-L
2012	8	4	2	27-7
2013	8	5	3	30-6
2014	7	4	2	26-9
2015	8	4	3	35-4
2016**	6	6	4	25-11
2017	8	5	3	28-7
2018	8	5	3	29-8
2019	8	4	3	32-6
2020	10	2	1	25-6
2021	9	5	2	13-11
Average	8.0	4.4	2.6	27-7.5

* DD = number of players who averaged double digit minutes for the season (10 game minimum)
** 2016 doesn't include Jefferson because he didn't play at least 10 games. But he also averaged 30+ when he was healthy.

 

[bleediteveryday30]

Year	DD* mpg	25+ mpg	30+ mpg	W-L
2012	8	4	2	27-7
2013	8	5	3	30-6
2014	7	4	2	26-9
2015	8	4	3	35-4
2016**	6	6	4	25-11
2017	8	5	3	28-7
2018	8	5	3	29-8
2019	8	4	3	32-6
2020	10	2	1	25-6
2021	9	5	2	13-11
Average	8.0	4.4	2.6	27-7.5

* DD = number of players who averaged double digit minutes for the season (10 game minimum)
** 2016 doesn't include Jefferson because he didn't play at least 10 games. But he also averaged 30+ when he was healthy.

This is very informative and helpful against the "K never plays the bench" crowd.

 

[denverexpat]

Williams, someone who barely played at the beginning of the year, by the end was a potential OAD and is now a key to our season....so hard to speculate on who gets mins as "how" we play will determine what players are needed. My only prediction is someone wont get minutes who we all think should...that is a given every year!

 

[bullettoothtony]

This is very informative and helpful against the "K never plays the bench" crowd.

Can you

Year	DD* mpg	25+ mpg	30+ mpg	W-L
2012	8	4	2	27-7
2013	8	5	3	30-6
2014	7	4	2	26-9
2015	8	4	3	35-4
2016**	6	6	4	25-11
2017	8	5	3	28-7
2018	8	5	3	29-8
2019	8	4	3	32-6
2020	10	2	1	25-6
2021	9	5	2	13-11
Average	8.0	4.4	2.6	27-7.5

* DD = number of players who averaged double digit minutes for the season (10 game minimum)
** 2016 doesn't include Jefferson because he didn't play at least 10 games. But he also averaged 30+ when he was healthy.

Can that graph be filtered? Can we see a minutes distribution against ACC opponents? RPI Top 50 opponents?

Just curious. I'm wondering how much the dozen or so games we play (non-covid) skew those statistics. Maybe they don't, I don't know.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Can you



Can that graph be filtered? Can we see a minutes distribution against ACC opponents? RPI Top 50 opponents?

Just curious. I'm wondering how much the dozen or so games we play (non-covid) skew those statistics. Maybe they don't, I don't know.

Sorry. Those are good thoughts, but I was just using the built-in table routine.

I tend to grab my numbers from these sources. They have some filtering capabilities but I don't know if they can do what you want.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/

https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke (behind pay wall)

 

[bullettoothtony]

^ Gotcha.

And earlier I meant to say the dozen or so games we play against "inferior" competition, i.e. teams on the schedule we're likely to beat by 20-40. I would think that might skew those stats somewhat.

2020 we definitely looked/felt deeper, but before that (last 10 years or whatever) it often didn't feel like we were very deep in ACC competition/big games.

Again, I could be wrong. And of course it depends on how we define "depth."

 

[Arlene]

The 3 top recruits look like studs who will be ready to go right out of the gate. Or by ACC time, at the latest.

K does very well with players like that. And enough depth is there to handle the bumps.

I worry a little about AJ because he still has some muscle to put on to have a college ready body. Whereas Blanchero and Keels are already at that place physically, AJ may get muscled around by other SFs. Just don’t want to see him getting beat up and deal with injuries all year. He’s very thin like Hurt was his Freshman year, and we saw the difference 20-25 lbs of muscle made in Hurt’s performance.

 

[christophero]

AJ looks pretty wiry strong to me. I'm more worried about the fact that he's missed a year. He'll be good, but I'm not convinced he will be as good right away as some seem to think. If he is that good that solves a lot of our issues, and we will only need Moore and Keels and Roach to be serviceable. Banchero and Williams will be our go to guys; we need a third. At least we have options; and chances are one of those guys exceeds expectations. Keels is another key; if he is a dead eye shooter that will fill a big need.

 

[geddoughton23]

Fascinating chart. I've watched too much basketball, and figured that there would be many years with 7 players with 10+ minutes.. Eight seems reasonable. Nine players is shocking

 

[sheyduke]

AJ looks pretty wiry strong to me. I'm more worried about the fact that he's missed a year. He'll be good, but I'm not convinced he will be as good right away as some seem to think. If he is that good that solves a lot of our issues, and we will only need Moore and Keels and Roach to be serviceable. Banchero and Williams will be our go to guys; we need a third. At least we have options; and chances are one of those guys exceeds expectations. Keels is another key; if he is a dead eye shooter that will fill a big need.

A.j is college ready physically. The only thing that worries me is mentally coming off injury. He’s a sleeper and I also don’t see Williams as a go to scorer. I see him building off last season and as the third option. Paolo and Griffin allow him to work on his jumper but a lot of his points are going to come off of put backs and run outs. Paolo down low will open things up for Williams old school game. I’m more worried about the team chemistry and players buying into their part of the team.

 

[df64]

Interesting take Denver. I have been thinking kind of the opposite. That our top 6 are going to get 20+ min a game and our 7th, most likely Theo gets 15. If Roach and Keels are very good, we maybe use Paolo some more at the 5, cutting into Theo's minutes. But that just means our top 6 are averaging even more minutes.
Part of my thinking Is that as disappointing a season as Roach seemed to have last year, he still averaged 26mpg.
The way I see it, if our presumed top 6 (Roach, Keels, Moore, AJ, Psolo, and Mark) aren't all worth at least 20+mpg, we are in trouble.

 

[christophero]

Wheeler the Georgia transfer to Kentucky. Gonzaga and Kentucky both got big pieces this week.

 

[jamsession3]

I think the one thing many of us can agree upon is a solid 8/9 man rotation. Coach K, in recent years, has become more generous with PT. Like Sky spoke on, practice time will determine playing time. I can add another detail to that... CHEMISTRY.

This is a Good Mix on paper. Prayerfully, with no injuries, good health, and a 30 game schedule, Duke is will be solid.

 

[christophero]

Teams are still adding transfers. We could still add one more. We lost Coleman and whiffed on Baldwin. We could use one more guy. We all know injuries happen. As of now we're good; as long as we're perfectly healthy.

 

[sheyduke]

Teams are still adding transfers. We could still add one more. We lost Coleman and whiffed on Baldwin. We could use one more guy. We all know injuries happen. As of now we're good; as long as we're perfectly healthy.

I don’t think the staff will add any one unless they see it as a sure fire home run to add. Just like Duke, Gonzaga and Kentucky look good on paper and I’m never sold on Gonzaga unless they play more then one ranked team a year. Duke has practice players, role players, starters. What we need is a leader on the floor, an extension of the coaches, a regular season and pre-season with work outs. Then roll the ball on to the court and play as a fist . Adding one more piece isn’t gonna make a difference unless they are an Uber two way player who has no issue coming off the bench.

 

[Liftee]

I'd be surprised if Banchero isn't the leader on the floor. I hope Roach also shows some leadership. Moore is more of a quiet guy but it's been a while since we had anyone as experienced as he will be playing a lot of minutes.

 

[LouisiAaron]

I worry a little about AJ because he still has some muscle to put on to have a college ready body. Whereas Blanchero and Keels are already at that place physically, AJ may get muscled around by other SFs. Just don’t want to see him getting beat up and deal with injuries all year. He’s very thin like Hurt was his Freshman year, and we saw the difference 20-25 lbs of muscle made in Hurt’s performance.

What AJ have you been looking at?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I’m never sold on Gonzaga unless they play more then one ranked team a year.

I think Few hears you. Glancing over the last few seasons, he has been scheduling 4-5 likely tournament teams each year.

I wonder if Gonzaga's recent top-tier status will attract more good players to that conference. Most years there are only 1 or 2 other good teams in the WCC - usually St. Mary's and/or BYU.

 

[christophero]

I don't know why people are so critical of Gonzaga. Sure they still have to win the big one, but they are knocking on the door every year. No one's saying they are better than us all time, but the last 5 years they have been. (2 Final Fours) This year we have a chance to change that.

 

[df64]

AJ is a big swing player for us. ESPN has him as #27. That's a guy you hope can be a legitimate starter for you you or at least dependable reserve.
Or, is he more like a top 5-10 guy who can be an impact starter? If he is the latter, Winslow or better, we have #1 recruiting class and are a top 5 team. If he is the former, we will need 2 of Keels,Moore, Roach to be very good. More than just capable starters.

 

[christophero]

Is the drop because of the injury and missed time? I remember when Johnson dropped everyone said it was b.s. and he was really a top 5 type guy. Man I hate how glass half empty I've become the last year. I'd say even with the missed time he's still top 15.

 

[df64]

Well, after a quick statistical analysis, I was able to determine that 1 out of 2 equals a half. Every time. I re ran the data a bunch of times. Therefore, since Johnson disappointed, AJ should be great. There you have it Chris, even with a glass half empty mentality, scientific proof that AJ will be killing it for us next year.
Good thing there are some of us glass half full guys left to wade through these more complicated, technical issues.

 

[sheyduke]

I don't know why people are so critical of Gonzaga. Sure they still have to win the big one, but they are knocking on the door every year. No one's saying they are better than us all time, but the last 5 years they have been. (2 Final Fours) This year we have a chance to change that.

I think it’s more so because when they get there and meet a top ten team they get dismantled. No one knocks Gonzaga it’s just given their conference I don’t think no one argues they win it and get a number one seed almost every year out those five .

 

[BOOGIEMAN1914]

Problem with Cam's inconsistency was that we really needed a 3rd scorer and we really, really needed 3 pt shooting from him.
Hopefully, we wont need AJ to be our 3rd scorer and we should have better team 3 pt shooting than 18/19. If Moore, Keels, Roach, and Joey shoot as poorly from outside as Cam, Tre, Alex, Jack, and Joey did, then we are going to need AJ to play like a lottery pick.

14ppg is a solid 3rd scorer that is behind 2 other guys scoring 22 ppg

 

[christophero]

Not sure where to put this but is anyone concerned about the Zion news? Could he be declared ineligible and our wins vacated? It's not really a good look. We don't appear to be directly involved though.

 

[GAAP_rivals]

14ppg is a solid 3rd scorer that is behind 2 other guys scoring 22 ppg

Cam's 35.6% FG shooting was not impressive. His NBA stats aren't much better (37.8%).

 

[sheyduke]

Not sure where to put this but is anyone concerned about the Zion news? Could he be declared ineligible and our wins vacated? It's not really a good look. We don't appear to be directly involved though.

I read the article he’s been cleared twice by the NCAA and by Duke. What’s alarming to me was the frank Jackson report about receiving money from Addidas while at Duke.

 

[christophero]

Yes the Frank Jackson report, if true, was shocking. Casually asking what he did shows such callous disregard for rules. Are these guys not briefed of this when they arrive things that can bring NCAA violations? The casual manner he allegedly said it was alarming. Maybe I'm naive and this is common.

 

[bullettoothtony]

Yes the Frank Jackson report, if true, was shocking. Casually asking what he did shows such callous disregard for rules. Are these guys not briefed of this when they arrive things that can bring NCAA violations? The casual manner he allegedly said it was alarming. Maybe I'm naive and this is common.

Can y'all elaborate on this, I didn't hear anything about Jackson.

 

[christophero]

I don't want to go into detail on here just google Frank Jackson plane tickets. It was in the News and Observer, among other places.

 

[BOOGIEMAN1914]

Cam's 35.6% FG shooting was not impressive. His NBA stats aren't much better (37.8%).

not really, but his situation was predicated on watching zion and rj...shooters have to get a rhythm....he didn't get that a lot...most times the shots he took had to go in or else its deflating....same situation as Baker.....kid needs at least 5-6 looks a game as opposed to 1 or 2 misses and then gets the hook....too much pressure on his first shots imo...Cam needed a few more of RJs shots and he was hurt as well.....to the NBA, a small sample size of 84 total games...11ppg 4reb 2ast 38fg% 31pt% 81ft%....27mpg aint bad w/ Young/Bogdon/Collins/Hunter/Huerta

 

[jimlsumner]

14ppg is a solid 3rd scorer that is behind 2 other guys scoring 22 ppg

Need some perspective here. Duke has had one season with two players over 22 ppg; 2019, with Williamson and Barrett. Laettner's career best was 21.5, Dawkins 20.2, Brand 17.9, Grant Hill 18.0, Gminski 21.3, Battier 19.9, Spanarkel 20.8, Banks 18.5. Mullins and Heyman (twice) and Gminski and Spanarkel are the only other Duke tandems to hit 20 ppg in the same season. Jason Williams and Battier barely missed in 2001. Ferry and Redick are the only other K-era Duke players to average over 22 ppg. Three of Duke's five NCAA champions did not have a single scorer over 20 ppg.

So, it might make sense to dial back the expectations. As currently constituted there's close to a zero chance that Duke will have two players at or above 22 ppg next season. Doesn't mean it can't be a championship team.

 

[BOOGIEMAN1914]

Need some perspective here. Duke has had one season with two players over 22 ppg; 2019, with Williamson and Barrett. Laettner's career best was 21.5, Dawkins 20.2, Brand 17.9, Grant Hill 18.0, Gminski 21.3, Battier 19.9, Spanarkel 20.8, Banks 18.5. Mullins and Heyman (twice) and Gminski and Spanarkel are the only other Duke tandems to hit 20 ppg in the same season. Jason Williams and Battier barely missed in 2001. Ferry and Redick are the only other K-era Duke players to average over 22 ppg. Three of Duke's five NCAA champions did not have a single scorer over 20 ppg.

So, it might make sense to dial back the expectations. As currently constituted there's close to a zero chance that Duke will have two players at or above 22 ppg next season. Doesn't mean it can't be a championship team.

yep...and 1 of the 22 got his efficiently and the other was a high volume shot taker......so are you saying 2 guys averaging 22 each and the third guy getting 14 isnt bad in regards to the third guy....and that third guy being a specialist and injured...=)

 

[christophero]

3 guys averaging 17 worked out well for us in 2010.

 

[jimlsumner]

yep...and 1 of the 22 got his efficiently and the other was a high volume shot taker......so are you saying 2 guys averaging 22 each and the third guy getting 14 isnt bad in regards to the third guy....and that third guy being a specialist and injured...=)

I'm saying that having two guys average 22 or more points per game in a season is both statistically unlikely and not necessary for significant team success.

 

[df64]

To me, we needed better 3 pt shooting from Cam. Fair or not. It wasnt Cam's fault that 3 pt shooting was also Tre's Akilees heel, not to mention Zion and RJ. Cam had a good year. But, not in the most key offensive area that his team needed.

 

[christophero]

Cam had a pretty underwhelming year for a top 5 guy. He was a huge recruit and would have been an All American as a sophomore.

 

[bullettoothtony]

Didn't Cam play a fair amount of point guard in high school/summer competition?

I wonder if having him run point 10-15% of the time, and/or having him operate as a point forward of sorts in certain half court sets would have helped him get in the flow of the offense more.

What I'm saying is I don't think Cam adjusted as well as he might've for what we needed, but maybe we didn't adjust to his strengths as well as we might've either.

 

[christophero]

Cam was good, but these guys have such a short window to figure things out before they move on. Sometimes it can be frustrating to watch.